There Is Hope

[RUforlife]

You have reading comprehension problems. Who is satisfied with 4-7 and 1-7? Nobody that I know of. Do you read what you respond to, or just lash out with more insults and accusations? Did you read the part about how Rutgers will never fire a coach with 5 years remaining on their contract, unless there is some sort of scandal or violation such as what happened with Flood. It is not happening. You keep making accusations about a personality cult and throw around phrases like "your hero" and "your leader" as a defensive mechanism, when very few if any fans think of him as such. Sure, perhaps we can do better, but are YOU going to do something other than whine and cry for the next 2 years? Make a donation to support a buyout? Probably not. This conversation is not productive. I wish you well with your issues. Have a nice day and a Happy Thanksgiving. Don't obsess too much over Rutgers football. It hurts all of us, but apparently it hurts you a lot more.

I have donated plenty of money to this program and will continue to do so. You have engaged me, not the other way around, simply because I am not satisfied with the on-field results that your hero has delivered, sorry, but again, we can, and must do better. Happy Thanksgiving.

 

[yesrutgers01]

KS- thank you for the work provided. Very interesting.

And of course, it is going to wake up those that are hard opinion on both sides and good convo from those that are fairly reasonable.

My take- I go from what I know of GS 1.0 and the new 2.0

And he was needed to replace Ash as he could 100% get us back to a P5 team and get some respect back. Which he has done.
And we knew, he had the chops to bring the defense back and the guy he brought in this year as DC is a huge hire- I believe he got this one right.
What concerns me- is GS 2.0 not doing better on offense then he did as 1.0
I give Greg one more year to show progress on offense. I think he did the right thing 2nd half of this year to just give Gavin the ball. But he has to get someone else in here at QB. No if ands or buts. And while he hired an innovative OC- it seems he didn't let him just bust it out. Feels like too much Greg involved in the offense.
He needs a HR selection at OC and allow them to do their job. He needs a combo of the OL that played this year, some of the very good OL recruits that redshirted and maybe another portal guy to make the OL work next year.
I can live with one more year of being into the last week or two hoping to win out for a bowl. But, OL/QB/Play calling/TO/Time management has to have huge improvements.

I just need to see those things. If I see them next year, then full steam ahead. If I don't, then I am with the cut bait.

 

[zappaa]

I don’t think people realize the level GS was recruiting at in 1.0.
This is not about wins and loses or his ability to coach.
The perception he was developing little known under the radar players after 2006, notice I’m saying after 2006, Is a myth.
He set a standard that allowed him to recruit guys that would all demand up-front signing bonus money out of high school today.
Guys like Obviously Caroo, Wright, Harrison, Agudosi, Snyder, Malast, Glaud, Coleman, Harmon, Khasaem Greene, Deering, Huggins, Jamison, Ryan.Burton, AD, Hamilton Wynn.I can go on and on….we didn’t win the old Big East with those guys under GS.
Our recruiting today isn’t in the same ballpark or stratosphere as back then.
Everyone of those guys would demand a healthy signing bonus and commitment to NIL before you could even talk to them if they were playing today.

 

[yesrutgers01]

I don’t think people realize the level GS was recruiting at in 1.0.
This is not about wins and loses or his ability to coach.
The perception he was developing little known under the radar players after 2006, notice I’m saying after 2006, Is a myth.
He set a standard that allowed him to recruit guys that would all demand up-front signing bonus money out of high school today.
Guys like Obviously Caroo, Wright, Harrison, Agudosi, Snyder, Malast, Glaud, Coleman, Harmon, Khasaem Greene, Deering, Huggins, Jamison, Ryan.Burton, AD, Hamilton Wynn.I can go on and on….we didn’t win the old Big East with those guys under GS.
Our recruiting today isn’t even in the same ballpark as back then.
Everyone of those guys would demand a healthy signing bonus and commitment to NIL before you could even talk to them if they were playing today.

Also- it was so much easier to hide really talented local players in the early mid 2000’s.
Kids/coaches had to mail in or email their tapes to coaches- the camp circuit was nothing like now.
With the advent of hudl social media- all the camps…many of the 2- low 3 star kids would have been “discovered”. Because many of them would have been 5.6 or higher rather than N/R or low 5.
Even the scouting sites like Rivals have so much more access.
It is a different world now. And to be honest- 2005-2009 teams would be performing much better than the current team in the B1G East. Not to win it but most likely in bowls each of these years

 

[RUTGERS95]

E pur si muove

 

[RU4Real]

E pur si muove

Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose.

 

[zappaa]

Also- it was so much easier to hide really talented local players in the early mid 2000’s.
Kids/coaches had to mail in or email their tapes to coaches- the camp circuit was nothing like now.
With the advent of hudl social media- all the camps…many of the 2- low 3 star kids would have been “discovered”. Because many of them would have been 5.6 or higher rather than N/R or low 5.
Even the scouting sites like Rivals have so much more access.
It is a different world now. And to be honest- 2005-2009 teams would be performing much better than the current team in the B1G East. Not to win it but most likely in bowls each of these years

Now let’s be brutally honest Yes😊
Both of your sons RU teams would dismantle and destroy the current team…and be very competitive and scary to play against in the current B1G

 

[Knight Shift]

I posted this in another thread, and the Part 1 is an almost verbatim repeat of that post. Part 2 is a comparison of two other coaches who had slow starts and succeeded. I'm not giving up on our current coach, but like many fans, the last few losses and this season has been disappointing, even though many fans predicted 4-8, but whatever.

For TL;DR-- Patience, grasshopper!

Part 1- A Comparison of Years 3 and 4 of Greg 1.0 to Year 3 of Greg 2.0:
As a poster who got absolutely lambasted and crucified for "defending" Flood and Ash a few years into to each of their tenures, I am not ready to throw in the towel. I was called a Floodie, an Ashie and other things, but I survived. Greg Schiano got Rutgers back to respectability once before, and he can do it again. But IMO, as we are seeing, it may not be a pretty ride. It will be like riding from Cape May to Alpine, NJ but taking detours through the worst sections of Atlantic City, Trenton, Newark, and Paterson to get there. There are/will be bumps in the road and unhappy moments.

Let's take a look at year 3 (2003) of Schiano 1.0 for comparison:

5-7 record, 2-5 in conference.
Wins against horrific 1-11 Buffalo, 0-13 Army, and 1-11 Temple, as well as 8-5 Navy (Coached by Paul Johnson) and 6-6 Syracuse. Against 9 non-horrific teams, Rutgers averaged 30 pts/game (28, 48, 22, 19, 32, 31, 25, 10 and 24). Comparing 2022, taking out the Wagner, Boston College and Temple games, and Rutgers has scored on average 13 points per game. Well, this comparison to year 3 of Schiano 1.0 already is not going so well, but I will plod on.

Our starting QB in 2003 was a young Ryan Hart, who after his Freshman year (2002) going 51/111 (45.9%) with 2 TDs and 6 INTs in 2002, he stepped up in 2003 as a sophomore going 234/398 (58.8%) for 2714 yds, but 15 TDs/18 INTs. He did not have a positive TD/INT ratio until 2005, with that ratio being 17/19 in 2004.

On to 2004. Rutgers took a step back, going 4-7/1-5 in conference. Taking horrific Temple out, Rutgers averaged 23 points per game, worse than 2003, and a WTF loss to New Hampshire. Maybe the year would have been better if Ryan Hart had a better TD/INT ratio?

Gavin did not look great yesterday with quite a few bad throws, but there were miscommunications and drops too. That aside, he has 132 passing attempts, and is 60/132(45.5%) with 5 TDs and 7 INTs. These stats are eerily similar to Ryan Hart's freshman stats. (I don't want to hear yeah, but Gavin played last year, and he's not really a freshman-that's BS. He was a kid and had 21 passing attempts).

Mike Teel has been brought up before. Mike Teel's freshman year, 2005, his stats were: 51/101 (50.5%,) 2 TDs and 10 INTs. Even in year 2, the magical 2006, Teel had 12 TDs and 13 INTs.

What does all this mean? Perhaps fans need to lower their expectations and get a little more realistic in their criticism of Wimsatt, especially against Michigan (#2 defense in the nation) and Penn State (#14 defense in the nation). Wimsatt spent a lot of last night under pressure and on the run. Far from ideal for a freshman QB.


Part 2-Coaches Who Had Slow Starts in Year 1-3 vs. A Coach Who had Quicker Success:
I generally don't like comparisons, but here goes. Mark Stoops at Kentucky. Have a so-so year, but still not horrific for a middling SEC team. Why? Senior QB Will Levis. Transfer from PSU, had 102 passing attempts in 2 years at Penn State. In 2021, he lit it up at Kentucky. He took a step back this year. Maybe the moral of the story is to get a transfer QB from Penn State (joke). But let's get back to 2013-2015 under Stoops.

2013- their Junior QB Maxwell Smith was not terrible, but not great. He transferred and played for San Diego State in 2015
2014-15- sophomore Patrick Towles took over, and had a very good year with 14 TDs and 9 INTs, and he took a step back in his junior year in 2015 with 9 TDs and 14 INT. He transferred and finished at BC.
2016-17 Kentucky made it to a bowl. QB was Stephen Johnson, a transfer from Grambling, taking over after the starter got injured. Decent year with 13 TDs and 6 INTs, and a similar year in 2017, before he retired from football.

Magical 2018- wasn't exactly QB passing, but a lights out defense. Doesn't fit the narrative, but the starting QB was a freshman, who started in 2019 and 2020, before transferring. QB was mobile in 2018, gaining 547 yds (4.1/carry) and 4 TDs.
2021 was another great year, see above.

2013	Kentucky	2–10	0–8	7th (Eastern)
2014	Kentucky	5–7	2–6	6th (Eastern)
2015	Kentucky	5–7	2–6	T–4th (Eastern)
2016	Kentucky	7–6	4–4	T–2nd (Eastern)	L TaxSlayer
2017	Kentucky	7–6	4–4	T–3rd (Eastern)	L Music City
2018	Kentucky	10–3	5–3	T–2nd (Eastern)	W Citrus	11	12
2019	Kentucky	8–5	3–5	T–4th (Eastern)	W Belk
2020	Kentucky	5–6	4–6	4th (Eastern)	W Gator
2021	Kentucky	10–3	5–3	2nd (Eastern)	W Citrus	15	18
2022	Kentucky	6–5	3–5	T–4th (Eastern)

Perhaps a better comparison (maybe not because he is young), but here goes:

2018, after 3 terrible seasons under Gary Andersen (former Wisconsin HC), Smith had a terrible first year in 2018, a OK year 2 in 2019 and a not so good year in 2020, before hitting a good year, going 7-5/5-4 in the regular season and making a bowl.

2018- Oregon State was actually not bad on offense, but had a terrible defense in 2018, last in the PAC12. Their QB was mainly Jake Luton, in his Junior year, who briefly played in the NFL, and split time with Conor Blount. In his first full year, Luton had a 4 TD/4 INT ratio on 135 passing attempts.

2019- Better year, but still a bad defense and a decent offense. They beat Arizona State, their signature win in 2019. Starting QB was Luton, a senior with 28 TDs and 3 INTs.

2020- a step back, but beat a #15 Oregon, mind you in a Covid year when Oregon was 4-3. Not much to say about 2020.

2021- OSU goes bowling in year 4, going 7-5, beating South Division champion Utah and a descent Arizona State. Led by QB Change Nolan, who after 91 attempts in 2020 and a decent TD/INT ratio of 6/2, had a nice year, throwing for 2677 yards, 19 TDs and 10 INTs. They lost their bowl game.

2022- year 5, OSU is rolling, at 8-3/5-3 with wins against 7-4/4-4 Washington State and that's about it. Very favorable schedule. They finish against #12 Oregon next week. OSU switched QBs after Chance Nolan was injured. Classified as a freshman, Ben Gulbranson took snaps in 2020, and has done OK in 7 games 103/163 for 130 yards, 8 TDs and 3 INTs. Oregon State relying more on their rushing game than passing game this year, and a second rated defense in the PAC 12

2018	Oregon State	2–10	1–8	6th (North)
2019	Oregon State	5–7	4–5	T–2nd (North)
2020	Oregon State	2–5	2–5	4th (North)
2021	Oregon State	7–6	5–4	3rd (North)	L LA
2022	Oregon State	8–3	5–3
Oregon State:	24–31	17–25

Another data point is Justin Wilcox. No detailed analysis here, but Wilcox at Cal went from 5-7/2-7 in year one to a bowl game in year 2 to 7-6/4-4, and then 8-5/4-5 in year 3, giving Cal something to be optimistic about. It has gone sideways and downward from there.

2017	California	5–7	2–7	5th (North)
2018	California	7–6	4–5	5th (North)	L Cheez-It
2019	California	8–5	4–5	T–2nd (North)	W Redbox
2020	California	1–3	1–3	T–5th (North)
2021	California	5–7	4–5	4th (North)
2022	California	4–7	2–6
California:	30–35	17–31

The conclusion? It may take until year 4 or 5 to see the results we want and are long overdue, the last 3 years under Schiano. Yes, Stoops did not notch more than 2 SEC wins until year 4, same as Smith, while Wilcox had quick success and took a dive. I would take Stoops and Smith over Wilcox. Will Greg be on a similar trajectory? We shall see.

Frankly, I don't know if I can take another year like this year again next year. But I do think that either 2023 or 2024 we will take a step forward. But yeah, it sucks right now.

It's no secret that Rutgers needs to hit the portal hard for (1) a QB as either a starter or a serviceable backup (better than Vedral), WRs, TEs and more. We obviously don't have the talent to compete with the top 3 teams in the East and these game hurt a lot.

Onward/upward, and maybe sideways for bit. Keep chopping.

One more data point showing that progress often is not linear- Mike Leach at Washington. After season 3, going 3-9/2-7 Leach went 37-15/26-10 in conference over the next 4 years:

2012	Washington State	3–9	1–8	6th (North)
2013	Washington State	6–7	4–5	T–4th (North)	L New Mexico
2014	Washington State	3–9	2–7	T–5th (North)
2015	Washington State	9–4	6–3	3rd (North)	W Sun