UM @ RU Weather: will be mostly sunny, dry and cool (low/mid-40s), but windy (mid-30s wind chills)

[RU848789]

For those still interested, it all depends on the timing of a cold front late in the week. Right now, most models are showing the front coming through Friday night with some decent rainfall/showers, but this should mean things clear out behind the front by sunrise on Saturday, with dry and cool conditions likely for the tailgates and game (normal high/low on 11/10 is 58/37F).

However, a week out, the timing of this front could easily shift by ~12 hours, so can't rule out a later front and a few showers early on Saturday (as one model shows). And kickoff time matters, too - the later the kickoff, the more likely it'll be dry, as it's unlikely the front timing will be that far off.

Lows are likely to be in the upper 30s/low 40s on Saturday morning and the high is likely to be around 50F, although those temps could easily move 5-10F between now and the game, given model variability this far out. Also, it's often breezy to windy in the wake of a strong cold front, but winds are very hard to predict more than a couple of days in advance. Stay tuned.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

 

[bac2therac]

its just as likely to be rainy and warm based on shifting and different model outputs for the weekend so I would edit that title

 

[RU848789]

its just as likely to be rainy and warm based on shifting and different model outputs for the weekend so I would edit that title

While it's possible it could be warm and showery, it's nowhere near as likely as cool and dry, so no, I won't change the thread title. You're welcome to start your own thread with a different title.

 

[RocktheRac]

Fake news?

 

[RU848789]

For those still interested, it all depends on the timing of a cold front late in the week. Right now, most models are showing the front coming through Friday night with some decent rainfall/showers, but this should mean things clear out behind the front by sunrise on Saturday, with dry and cool conditions likely for the tailgates and game (normal high/low on 11/10 is 58/37F).

However, a week out, the timing of this front could easily shift by ~12 hours, so can't rule out a later front and a few showers early on Saturday (as one model shows). And kickoff time matters, too - the later the kickoff, the more likely it'll be dry, as it's unlikely the front timing will be that far off.

Lows are likely to be in the upper 30s/low 40s on Saturday morning and the high is likely to be around 50F, although those temps could easily move 5-10F between now and the game, given model variability this far out. Also, it's often breezy to windy in the wake of a strong cold front, but winds are very hard to predict more than a couple of days in advance. Stay tuned.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

No real change in the forecast, other than confidence is growing that the front will move through late Friday (following a low pressure system that will likely bring rain on Friday), meaning it's becoming very likely that Saturday will be cool and dry with lows in the upper 30s/low 40s and highs near 50F on Saturday.

Still an outside shot that some light showers could linger into Saturday morning (until maybe ~8 am), but that's looking unlikely right now. Could also be breezy in the wake of the front. Not quite ready to say lock it up for cool and dry, but it's getting close, even for a noon kickoff (even more likely to be rain free for any later kickoff time). NWS discussion below.

Last home game of the year for me (have a family obligation for PSU) and my hope at this point is to keep the margin of defeat under 40 points. It's pretty sad for that to be my hope for this game. What a horrible friggin' season. On to hoops!

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

A surface low looks to gather strength Thursday into Friday over the
mid-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys as a fast-moving short-wave
trough begins to amplify the dominating synoptic trough over the mid-
section of the country. High pressure shifts off to the east over
the Mid-Atlantic and southerly flow begins to overspread our
forecast area. Disagreement exists over the organization and
strength of the low between the GFS and ECMWF, with the latter
forecasting a deeper low developing to our northwest. This solution
would lead to heavier rainfall and potentially stronger winds
following the cold front into the weekend. Will continue to monitor
future model runs to see which solution pans out. Highs will warm a
little Friday with the southerly, moister flow, ranging from the
upper 40s over the Poconos to low 60s across Delmarva.

High pressure quickly moves into the area Saturday, dominating our
weather through the weekend, though we will remain quite chilly.
Highs look to range from the low 40s north, to the mid 50s south
Saturday, and cooler on Sunday with highs potentially remaining in
the upper 30s across the Poconos and only reaching near 50 across
southern Delaware.

 

[RU848789]

With a 3:30 pm kickoff time, it's now just about 100% lock to be dry for the tailgates (past about 10 am) and definitely the game. The front should be through by late Friday night and only one model is showing some lingering light showers until maybe 8-9 am, with the rest of the models showing any rain over by sunrise. I'd like to see one more model cycle tonight before feeling we're locked for a dry tailgate/game.

It'll definitely be on the cool side with low temps in the upper 30s/low 40s near sunrise and with highs only being in the upper 40s to about 50F. A fair amount of sunshine should make it feel a bit warmer than that, but that could be cancelled by breezy conditions, which are possible in the wake of the front (but not definite, as winds are impossible to predict this far out).

So, at least we're getting one afternoon tailgate with what should be good football weather.

 

[RU848789]

With a 3:30 pm kickoff time, it's now just about 100% lock to be dry for the tailgates (past about 10 am) and definitely the game. The front should be through by late Friday night and only one model is showing some lingering light showers until maybe 8-9 am, with the rest of the models showing any rain over by sunrise. I'd like to see one more model cycle tonight before feeling we're locked for a dry tailgate/game.

It'll definitely be on the cool side with low temps in the upper 30s/low 40s near sunrise and with highs only being in the upper 40s to about 50F. A fair amount of sunshine should make it feel a bit warmer than that, but that could be cancelled by breezy conditions, which are possible in the wake of the front (but not definite, as winds are impossible to predict this far out).

So, at least we're getting one afternoon tailgate with what should be good football weather.

Last night's and this morning's models all look good for Saturday, so I'd say it's time to lock it up for a cool and dry tailgate and game, with the minor exception of a chance of a few brief, light showers up until maybe 8-9 am, for the very early tailgaters (no models show rain after about 5-6 am, but I'm hedging a bit since timing could still be off by a few hours). Anyone arriving after 10-11 am should not see any rain and by then things should be clearing up.

It will be relatively cool, with lows around 40F and temps struggling to reach the upper 40s for highs. That, plus the chance of 10-15 mph winds in the wake of the front, especially during the tailgates, will make it pretty chilly for most, although hopefully the sun will help take the edge off the chill and hopefully the winds will diminish below 10 mph by kickoff I will not be wearing shorts, lol. Football weather.

Saturday through Sunday...high pressure will build across the region
through the weekend, moving across our forecast area on Sunday and
then offshore Sunday night. Dry but cool weather across the region
for the weekend with highs mainly staying in the 40s, with some
upper 30s across the north and some temperatures around 50 along the
coast and across southern Delaware.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[RU848789]

Last night's and this morning's models all look good for Saturday, so I'd say it's time to lock it up for a cool and dry tailgate and game, with the minor exception of a chance of a few brief, light showers up until maybe 8-9 am, for the very early tailgaters (no models show rain after about 5-6 am, but I'm hedging a bit since timing could still be off by a few hours). Anyone arriving after 10-11 am should not see any rain and by then things should be clearing up.

It will be relatively cool, with lows around 40F and temps struggling to reach the upper 40s for highs. That, plus the chance of 10-15 mph winds in the wake of the front, especially during the tailgates, will make it pretty chilly for most, although hopefully the sun will help take the edge off the chill and hopefully the winds will diminish below 10 mph by kickoff I will not be wearing shorts, lol. Football weather.

Saturday through Sunday...high pressure will build across the region
through the weekend, moving across our forecast area on Sunday and
then offshore Sunday night. Dry but cool weather across the region
for the weekend with highs mainly staying in the 40s, with some
upper 30s across the north and some temperatures around 50 along the
coast and across southern Delaware.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Minimal change to the cool and dry part of the forecast with lows around 40F and highs in the upper 40s (maybe mid-40s for highs with temps dropping to near 40F by the end of the game) with absolutely dry conditions after about 8-9 am and partly to mostly sunny skies. Rain should be over by 6 am or so, but there could still be a stray light shower until 8-9 am. That part is great.

What's not so great is the feared windy conditions look like they will materialize in the wake of the passing cold front, with a strong low in New England and a strong high to our west conspiring to funnel strong NW winds across our area for most of the day. Could see sustained winds in the 10-20 mph range with gusts to 30+ mph basically all day.

Will likely be enough wind to blow over unsecured canopies and make it feel much colder, even in full sun (wind chills in the 30s) and will likely affect the passing/kicking games. It's a lot better than rain, I guess. Only thing I will say is that winds are notoriously hard to predict, so maybe they're being overestimated or maybe things will speed up a bit so the winds maybe die down some for the game. We can hope.

For Saturday and Sunday...Deepening low pressure moving north of New
England Saturday will combine with high pressure building into the
Ohio Valley. Cold air advection combined with a tight pressure
gradient and steepening low-level lapse rates will result in a gusty
northwesterly wind Saturday. The forecast soundings generally
indicate around 30 knots of wind is available to mix down to the
surface, therefore the wind and wind gusts were increased during the
day Saturday. High pressure edges closer Saturday night and while a
tightened pressure gradient is present the winds overall are
expected to diminish through Saturday night, then high pressure
builds over our area on Sunday with even less wind with time.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[bac2therac]

the real story is its going to be pretty cold..temp after sunset start falling to near 40 and with a gusty 20 mph in the stadium which is already always windy...everyone better bundle up

 

[DJ Spanky]

the real story is its going to be pretty cold..temp after sunset start falling to near 40 and with a gusty 20 mph in the stadium which is already always windy...everyone better bundle up

At least those who stay for the game.

 

[BlockR]

At least those who stay for the game.

only fans left after midway thru third quarter will be Meechegan fans.
Barchi and Hobbs dont care.

 

[Knight Shift]

At least those who stay for the game.

I will be there in the bitter cold until the bitter end.

 

[rurichdog]

I was hoping for light to no winds, so we could set up the canopy & 2-3 sidewalls with a heater. Such is life as a Rutgers fan.

 

[DJ Spanky]

I will be there in the bitter cold until the bitter end.

God bless you. We'll be at our tailgate until nightfall most likely.

 

[RU848789]

God bless you. We'll be at our tailgate until nightfall most likely.

In the old days, I always stayed until the end of every game. But that was when it was just me and maybe one guest, back in the Shea Error. Now with a group of 14, I'm not about to hold people (even a few of them) hostage because I want to see the rest of the annihilation. Yeah, I guess I could let everyone take their cars and maybe Uber or train home, but I also don't care as much any more. It's sad.

 

[RU848789]

Minimal change to the cool and dry part of the forecast with lows around 40F and highs in the upper 40s (maybe mid-40s for highs with temps dropping to near 40F by the end of the game) with absolutely dry conditions after about 8-9 am and partly to mostly sunny skies. Rain should be over by 6 am or so, but there could still be a stray light shower until 8-9 am. That part is great.

What's not so great is the feared windy conditions look like they will materialize in the wake of the passing cold front, with a strong low in New England and a strong high to our west conspiring to funnel strong NW winds across our area for most of the day. Could see sustained winds in the 10-20 mph range with gusts to 30+ mph basically all day.

Will likely be enough wind to blow over unsecured canopies and make it feel much colder, even in full sun (wind chills in the 30s) and will likely affect the passing/kicking games. It's a lot better than rain, I guess. Only thing I will say is that winds are notoriously hard to predict, so maybe they're being overestimated or maybe things will speed up a bit so the winds maybe die down some for the game. We can hope.

For Saturday and Sunday...Deepening low pressure moving north of New
England Saturday will combine with high pressure building into the
Ohio Valley. Cold air advection combined with a tight pressure
gradient and steepening low-level lapse rates will result in a gusty
northwesterly wind Saturday. The forecast soundings generally
indicate around 30 knots of wind is available to mix down to the
surface, therefore the wind and wind gusts were increased during the
day Saturday. High pressure edges closer Saturday night and while a
tightened pressure gradient is present the winds overall are
expected to diminish through Saturday night, then high pressure
builds over our area on Sunday with even less wind with time.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

It's an absolute lock now for cool temps (low/mid 40s now), sunshine, and no rain after sunrise, but the story of the day may end up being the wind. Every model, now, is showing a tightening pressure gradient during the day on Saturday with 10-20 mph winds and gusts to 30+ mph, which will make it feel like it's in the mid-30s during the day and near 30F into the evening, as the temps drop into the upper 30s by 6-7 pm, assuming anyone is still around, lol. And it's not looking like the wind forecast is going to change appreciably. Bundle up kids...and wear sunscreen, too, if the sun is your enemy, like me.

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
329 PM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Precipitation tapers off fairly quickly from west to east after
midnight Friday night. Some lingering showers are possible into
Saturday morning, as well as some rain/snow showers into
Saturday morning for southern Poconos.

Thereafter, high pressure begins to build in from the west as
low pressure removes towards the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday.
The westerly pressure gradient tightens during the day, and
surge of CAA will allow for strong and gusty winds through the
day. West winds will increase to 20-30 mph with 30-40 mph gusts.
There is the potential for Wind Advisory level winds right
along the coasts, but confidence is not high enough to justify
issuing a Wind Advisory at this time. Temperatures start out in
the 30s and low 40s Saturday morning, and may only right by 2-3
degrees in the late morning/early afternoon before holding
steady and falling late in the day. Wind chills during the day
will be in the 20s to low 30s, expect for the southern Poconos,
where wind chills could only be in the teens!

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[bac2therac]

lol..its not going to be cool...its going to be COLD

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

With this being the first non-noon game we are planning an Italian menu, including hand made pizza prepared onsite and cooked in a propane oven. It’s not easy to do in the wind as I recall from the PSU game a couple years ago. I tried to lobby for this in the previous noon starts but got voted down.

 

[RU848789]

lol..its not going to be cool...its going to be COLD

Temps will be cool for most, but it'll feel cold for most, with the wind chill. I updated the thread title a little while ago to include temps/wind chills. Sunshine will help for the tailgates and first half; winds should start lightening up just a bit by the 2nd half.

 

[RU848789]

its just as likely to be rainy and warm based on shifting and different model outputs for the weekend so I would edit that title

While it's possible it could be warm and showery, it's nowhere near as likely as cool and dry, so no, I won't change the thread title. You're welcome to start your own thread with a different title.

Probabilistic forecasting actually makes a difference.

 

[RU848789]

With this being the first non-noon game we are planning an Italian menu, including hand made pizza prepared onsite and cooked in a propane oven. It’s not easy to do in the wind as I recall from the PSU game a couple years ago. I tried to lobby for this in the previous noon starts but got voted down.

This will likely be much windier than that PSU game - more like the Cuse game from the late 2000s, where it really affected the game.

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

This will likely be much windier than that PSU game - more like the Cuse game from the late 2000s, where it really affected the game.

Thanks. The Pronto pizza oven I have is fine on calm weather days but difficult to work with in the wind. I’m going to make the dough and be ready to go for 8-10 pizzas but be able to fall back on sausage, meatballs, and antipas. With vodka...

 

[Local Shill]

This will likely be much windier than that PSU game - more like the Cuse game from the late 2000s, where it really affected the game.

You’re talking about the last game of 2003 when Dick Scanlon, that Syracuse scumbug linebacker from Bergen Catholic went into the stands to fight the RU fans who tainted him. Good times.

http://blog.syracuse.com/orangefootball/2009/12/the_lowest_spots_in_a_down_dec.html

 

[RU848789]

You’re talking about the last game of 2003 when Dick Scanlon, that Syracuse scumbug linebacker from Bergen Catholic went into the stands to fight the RU fans who tainted him. Good times.

http://blog.syracuse.com/orangefootball/2009/12/the_lowest_spots_in_a_down_dec.html

Holy crap, I can't believe it was that long ago...

 

[MrsScrew]

@RU848789 will it be too windy for the Golden Knights to parachute in pre-game as scheduled?

 

[newell138]

You’re talking about the last game of 2003 when Dick Scanlon, that Syracuse scumbug linebacker from Bergen Catholic went into the stands to fight the RU fans who tainted him. Good times.

http://blog.syracuse.com/orangefootball/2009/12/the_lowest_spots_in_a_down_dec.html

That was the beginning of the turnaround for Schiano. I really felt we were on our way after that.

 

[RU4Real]

@RU848789 will it be too windy for the Golden Knights to parachute in pre-game as scheduled?

Absolutely.

We don't want a repeat of last time...

 

[MrsScrew]

Absolutely.

We don't want a repeat of last time...

"last time"? refresh my memory please

 

[RU4Real]

"last time"? refresh my memory please

It was years ago. I don't even remember who the coach was. A skydiver bringing in the game ball ran too deep toward the north stands, tried to execute a last minute 180 and collapsed his chute almost exactly at the top of the north goal post.

Dude hit the ground so hard he bounced. He lived, but had multiple pelvic fractures among other less serious injuries.

 

[DJ Spanky]

It was years ago. I don't even remember who the coach was. A skydiver bringing in the game ball ran too deep toward the north stands, tried to execute a last minute 180 and collapsed his chute almost exactly at the top of the north goal post.

Dude hit the ground so hard he bounced. He lived, but had multiple pelvic fractures among other less serious injuries.

I think that happened during the Graber years.

 

[RU4Real]

I think that happened during the Graber years.

I think so, too, because we were sitting on the other side of the stadium from where we are now. Which means that it would have been pre-94.

 

[RU848789]

It was years ago. I don't even remember who the coach was. A skydiver bringing in the game ball ran too deep toward the north stands, tried to execute a last minute 180 and collapsed his chute almost exactly at the top of the north goal post.

Dude hit the ground so hard he bounced. He lived, but had multiple pelvic fractures among other less serious injuries.

Wow missed that completely and never even heard about it. And yes, 15-20 mph winds with 30-35 mph gusts will ground target skydivers and even skydivers not trying to hit a small target.

 

[Sideline20]

It was years ago. I don't even remember who the coach was. A skydiver bringing in the game ball ran too deep toward the north stands, tried to execute a last minute 180 and collapsed his chute almost exactly at the top of the north goal post.

Dude hit the ground so hard he bounced. He lived, but had multiple pelvic fractures among other less serious injuries.

Thank goodness we had a grass field back then....would have been much worse on field turf (like we currently have).

 

[RU848789]

It's an absolute lock now for cool temps (low/mid 40s now), sunshine, and no rain after sunrise, but the story of the day may end up being the wind. Every model, now, is showing a tightening pressure gradient during the day on Saturday with 10-20 mph winds and gusts to 30+ mph, which will make it feel like it's in the mid-30s during the day and near 30F into the evening, as the temps drop into the upper 30s by 6-7 pm, assuming anyone is still around, lol. And it's not looking like the wind forecast is going to change appreciably. Bundle up kids...and wear sunscreen, too, if the sun is your enemy, like me.

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
329 PM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Precipitation tapers off fairly quickly from west to east after
midnight Friday night. Some lingering showers are possible into
Saturday morning, as well as some rain/snow showers into
Saturday morning for southern Poconos.

Thereafter, high pressure begins to build in from the west as
low pressure removes towards the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday.
The westerly pressure gradient tightens during the day, and
surge of CAA will allow for strong and gusty winds through the
day. West winds will increase to 20-30 mph with 30-40 mph gusts.
There is the potential for Wind Advisory level winds right
along the coasts, but confidence is not high enough to justify
issuing a Wind Advisory at this time. Temperatures start out in
the 30s and low 40s Saturday morning, and may only right by 2-3
degrees in the late morning/early afternoon before holding
steady and falling late in the day. Wind chills during the day
will be in the 20s to low 30s, expect for the southern Poconos,
where wind chills could only be in the teens!

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

No real change in the forecast. Temps to be in the low/mid-40s from now through about kickoff, when they'll start dropping a bit, reaching the upper 30s by the end of the game. The big story remains the wind: it's not too bad yet, but winds should pick up appreciably by 10-11 am and remain around 20 mph for the rest of the day, with gusts to 30-35 mph (could see them decrease by sundown). That'll lead to wind chils in the low/mid-30s most of the time. That's cold to most folks.

Should be dry the entire day, although there's a small chance of a sprinkle until about 10 am or so. Should be partly sunny most of the day (which does mean some clouds and it'll feel even colder when the sun is obscured by clouds), turning to mostly sunny by game time. Football weather - would way way way rather have it be chilly and windy than rainy. By the way, tonight will be the coldest night in the area since April, with temps at or below freezing just about everywhere - freeze warnings are up for most locations that haven't hit freezing yet this season.

 

[RU4Real]

At one point, it was snowing.

 

[RUHoopsguard]

At one point, it was snowing.

We had flurries as we shutdown tailgate #2---one that began at halftime. had no snow/flurries heading home but we were headed north.

 

[bac2therac]

well it was cold

 

[rurichdog]

Tough tailgating today. Wind was blowing chairs over, blowing tables over, blowing out burners, etc.

 

[DJ Spanky]

At one point, it was snowing.

We ran into some quick flurries on the way in around 11.

 

[G- RUnit]

Another weather failure. Weather was brutal and saying some gusts doesn’t cut it. Wind was a constant. Much colder less sunny.

Back to the drawing board. You can not claim this forecast was accurate except for the dry part. Last two games missed the boat. Sorry weather guys.

Do appreciate the effort. Although 24 hours later I am still defrosting.