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We are officially at the mid-way point of the 2018-2019 season, thoughts

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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy

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with 15 game down and 15 games to go we are officially at the midway point of the season. As I reflect on the first half and look towards the second, here are my thoughts.

1) Biggest Surprise: Caleb McConnell and Shaq Carter. After slow starts to their seasons where both saw minimal playing time and mcconnell in particular played with very little confidence both have really turned into solid contributors off the bench over the past 3-4 weeks and are two guys I expect barring injury to play 20+ minutes per game and be big contributors down the stretch. Getting them experience and getting through the meat grinder big ten this season will go a longgggg way in their development.

2) Biggest Disappointment: KIssa. Peter Kiss and especially issa thiam have been extremely disappointing. I was in the minority in that I didnt really have high expectations for kiss as i thought he was nothing more than a slightly below average player but to see issa pretty much regressed from being below average to being a total non-factor has been disappointing. It is probably best that these two dont play much more than some spot/situational minutes in the 2nd half so our younger guys can eat up those minutes and accelerate their growth.

3) Montez is flashing before our eyes. Montez at the beginning of the year looked like a kid with zero confidence against the likes of squads like FDU. He has completely kicked things into another gear since that time and is playing with an attitude, snarl and aggressiveness that he was known for back at john carroll. Speaking with a prominent NJ high school assistant coach, he told me he coached vs montez last year at a tournament and that montez was “a badddd man” (in a good way). In the sense that he was nasty and got to the rim at will. Were starting to see that with him already as a freshman. I cant wait to see how he continues to grow as the year(s) goes on.

4) Geo has been up and down. You kinda had to see this coming where coming into the year he was our only somewhat proven guard. Teams are swarming him and making his life hell. Getting additional help in next year with guys like Young, Mulcahy and hopefully a grad transfer scorer along with the continued growth of montez, caleb and ron will go a long way to helping geo take the load off his shoulders. He is unecessarily trying to do way too much right now and forcing things that dont need to be forced. Once the freshman take that next step Geo is going to go back to being a really solid player for us.

5) Ron Harper is starting to find his shot. Over the past 2 games hes shot 4-11 from 3, one of those 11 was a heave fading away when he caught the ball with 1 second on the shot clock so if you take that out he shot 40% from 3 vs two top 25 caliber squads. Once ron starts hitting the shot consistently, his iq, handle, grit, and toughness is going to make him an absolute force especially in his upperclassmen years when he sheds the baby fat. Ron is an extremely confident kid and I think he is going to just continue to grow and grow and grow, I look forward to seeing him step up vocally in the 2nd half and become a vocal leader as well.

6) Myles Johnson is starting to utilize his size. Hes still a little to tenative for my liking but we saw vs Minny him being a little more assertive. In the 2nd half I want pike to challenge myles to be meaner, be nastier and be more assertive in the post. That wing span and size of his is insane. Now if he get just develop more of a mean streak and start banging around down low he could be a force. Shaq D has also been a solid contributor, i dont wanna forget to mention him.

7) Assuming Eugene comes back, I want to see him move the ball better. Hes a warrior, a guy you love to have on your team but the ball needs to stop getting stuck on the wing when he catches it. If he catches it 15+ feet out it’s gotta either be a mid-range shot in rhythm or a relatively quick pass out. Trying to back a guy down from 15 feet results in far too many low % shots, doubles and ultimately turnovers. I want the 2017-2018 Eugene version PLUS the capability to pick and pop from 3.

8) The culture is changing. How many times in the past number of years have you seen our teams just take their beatings and walk away quietly like dogs with their tails between their legs? Not this year. These KIDS (freshman) fight until the very last minute. Down 21 with 5 minutes left and you throw a ball at my head? Not today. Your teams been showing us up for a 5 minute stretch and you wanna try and disrespect me and dunk on me? **** outta here. Our toughest kids are our freshman and the upper classmen are going to have to take their games to another level if they wanna avoid being shown up and having the team taken over by freshman. Mulcahy is in the same mold. Tough, confident kid.

Overall imo we probably finish something like 11-19 and the W/L record might not look great at the end of the year but if we can hang tight with some of these tourney bound teams while playing a few 18 year olds it will go a longggg way towards us being able to realistically have expectations for an above .500 record in 2019-2020. And who knows if mulcahy comes in and keeps working on his shot, jacob young can prove me wrong and be a + player and we can land a grad transfer scorer along with a mickey pearson (please spare me from we only have one ship left) then who knows, MAYBE just MAYBE we can dream of the tourney in 2019-2020 IF caleb, ron, and tez continue on this upward trajectory that weve seen over the past month. This years not the year but I am excited the direction this program is headed in.
 
As for Kiss and Issa, I am not in favor of drastically reducing their minutes in order to develop the other players. Kiss is a soph and Issa is a Jr. Do you want to basically sit them for the rest of their careers? All of the players should earn their minutes based on how they practice, and how they play in games. If they produce, they get minutes. That goes for everyone. Winning games is what it is all about at this point in the season.
 
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Looking at the raw stats of Caleb and Shaq C I can’t see how you can view them as positive surprises. From game 10 to game 15 yes.

As far as NCAA tournament next year.....you would be asking for a huge leap with essentially the same pieces.
 
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Looking at the raw stats of Caleb and Shaq C I can’t see how you can view them as positive surprises. From game 10 to game 15 yes.

As far as NCAA tournament next year.....you would be asking for a huge leap with essentially the same pieces.
Caleb is a freshmen who has played well in B1G. How in the world do you not think he’s a positive surprise? We got him in the last days of the recruiting cycle and he’s clearly a B1G pg. Not something we’re accustomed to.
 
We’re still too young to make anything happen this season. I don’t think we win on the road this year unfortunately, but I can’t imagine that we have had our last win overall, and so I predict we get 1 more at the RAC. Gene being hurt will wear us down. The rest of the league is so good this year it will be hard to even find that next win. But if we can keep everyone else healthy for the end of the year, I think we can go on a mini run again in Chicago and I predict we win at least 1 but up to 2 games there. Regroup next year and get our PGs in here, the freshmen are a year older, more conditioning, experience playing in the league and on the road, and some senior stars in the rest of the conference graduate, and I like our chances next year to go .500 overall. I predict the following season we finally make the breakthrough (or at least have our best shot).
 
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You have to at least sit Thiam I think he has made 1 basket in the last 6 games and that was not a 3 pointer. I know you have to play him with Omuryi out. One more thing is if Omuryi comes back I would actually like to see him at the 3 to give us a big lineup provided as was stated above the ball does not just stop in his hands
 
The players that ultimately bring us to the NCAA aren’t names we are aware of right now.
Disagree. Will there be key pieces in the 2020 class that help us get there? Sure. But I think Geo’s senior year is our best chance of getting there and the upperclassmen will be the ones who largely lead us there. That means Geo, Ron, Tez, Caleb.
 
Thank you for taking the time to post your analysis. I agree with most of your thoughts but I wouldn’t label anyone as a disappointment. These young men carry themselves as great representatives of the school and I’m sure are putting in their best efforts and care to win and entertain us. I thank them for that. Maybe some of their personal games are facing roadblocks and struggles that they have to work through, or they have to embrace new roles on the team. But none have been disappointments for me. A solid post though...thanks for it
 
Disagree. Will there be key pieces in the 2020 class that help us get there? Sure. But I think Geo’s senior year is our best chance of getting there and the upperclassmen will be the ones who largely lead us there. That means Geo, Ron, Tez, Caleb.

Our guys can certainly improve a ton. Watching the daily B1G games it is tough not to notice how much better these teams are than us.
 
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Our guys can certainly improve a ton. Watching the daily B1G games it is tough not to notice how much better these teams are than us.
Outside of michigan, i dont think theres a team we cant hang with. Michigans on another level. How many teams are playing freshman as many minutes as us though? These kids are good players, just young and will get better.
 
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Looking at the raw stats of Caleb and Shaq C I can’t see how you can view them as positive surprises. From game 10 to game 15 yes.

As far as NCAA tournament next year.....you would be asking for a huge leap with essentially the same pieces.
I don't know how you can watch Caleb and Carter play and not see their play as a positive. That's a bad take
 
Outside of michigan, i dont think theres a team we cant hang with. Michigans on another level. How many teams are playing freshman as many minutes as us though? These kids are good players, just young and will get better.

They are good players but it is going to take a lot to get to 10-10 in conference. The litmus test can’t be minutes played when you consider the upperclassmen we have.

Who on this team is an average or better perimeter shooter?
 
They are good players but it is going to take a lot to get to 10-10 in conference. The litmus test can’t be minutes played when you consider the upperclassmen we have.

Who on this team is an average or better perimeter shooter?

I guess the stat lines as freshman usually improves in their sophomore year. Harper in a smaller sample size is playing or shooting better... McConnell is shooting with more confidence....Baker would be better with less minutes to maintain legs to get shot and scoring opportunities.

I also think Kiss and Thiam are probably our best shooters in a vacuum but having the ability to do other things beyond shooting, matters. So all shooters we watch elsewhere are within the context of that team's rotation or system.

As RU improves it's roster and playmaking, the shooting will gradually improve. Ball movement and experience all matters.
 
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They are good players but it is going to take a lot to get to 10-10 in conference. The litmus test can’t be minutes played when you consider the upperclassmen we have.

Who on this team is an average or better perimeter shooter?
To answer your last question, id consider anyone who shoots above like 35% from 3 above average. That gives us Geo, Mcconnell and in my opinion soon enough Ron. Since late december when caleb started playing regular minutes hes shooting 38-39% from 3. Ron is finding his stroke and shooting with confidence in rhythm and vs our past 2 top 25 opponents shot about 40% from 3. Mulcahy’s 3 ball has improved drastically. Im not really a fan of jacob young but his 3 ball is around 33%. So we’ll see.
 
There are 87 players in the B1G who have played 40% minutes (16 MPG)

Effective FG%
7. Shaq D 64.1%
60. Eugene 50.3%
75. kiss 46.9%
76. Baker 45.1%
81. Issa 41.2%
82. harper 40.5%
86. Mathis 37.8%


87. Isiah Washington 32%
 
Improvement means nothing if you don’t actually win some games. I can’t agree with the OP and especially the part about we can hang with everyone but Michigan (did you not see Maryland/Minny?).

BUT, if the team does end up getting 5+ wins I could get optimistic for next year. Than you’re ACTUALLY improving. I agree with FIG in most posts and as I’ve been saying ultimately we will not get to the tournament unless the 2020 class is around 8th in conference by avg star ranking (and 2021) would need to follow.
 
Disagree. Will there be key pieces in the 2020 class that help us get there? Sure. But I think Geo’s senior year is our best chance of getting there and the upperclassmen will be the ones who largely lead us there. That means Geo, Ron, Tez, Caleb.
We don't have Omoyuri and Carter in 2020, we have no chance unless we get a big time pickup at the four.
 
with 15 game down and 15 games to go we are officially at the midway point of the season. As I reflect on the first half and look towards the second, here are my thoughts.

1) Biggest Surprise: Caleb McConnell and Shaq Carter. After slow starts to their seasons where both saw minimal playing time and mcconnell in particular played with very little confidence both have really turned into solid contributors off the bench over the past 3-4 weeks and are two guys I expect barring injury to play 20+ minutes per game and be big contributors down the stretch. Getting them experience and getting through the meat grinder big ten this season will go a longgggg way in their development.

2) Biggest Disappointment: KIssa. Peter Kiss and especially issa thiam have been extremely disappointing. I was in the minority in that I didnt really have high expectations for kiss as i thought he was nothing more than a slightly below average player but to see issa pretty much regressed from being below average to being a total non-factor has been disappointing. It is probably best that these two dont play much more than some spot/situational minutes in the 2nd half so our younger guys can eat up those minutes and accelerate their growth.

3) Montez is flashing before our eyes. Montez at the beginning of the year looked like a kid with zero confidence against the likes of squads like FDU. He has completely kicked things into another gear since that time and is playing with an attitude, snarl and aggressiveness that he was known for back at john carroll. Speaking with a prominent NJ high school assistant coach, he told me he coached vs montez last year at a tournament and that montez was “a badddd man” (in a good way). In the sense that he was nasty and got to the rim at will. Were starting to see that with him already as a freshman. I cant wait to see how he continues to grow as the year(s) goes on.

4) Geo has been up and down. You kinda had to see this coming where coming into the year he was our only somewhat proven guard. Teams are swarming him and making his life hell. Getting additional help in next year with guys like Young, Mulcahy and hopefully a grad transfer scorer along with the continued growth of montez, caleb and ron will go a long way to helping geo take the load off his shoulders. He is unecessarily trying to do way too much right now and forcing things that dont need to be forced. Once the freshman take that next step Geo is going to go back to being a really solid player for us.

5) Ron Harper is starting to find his shot. Over the past 2 games hes shot 4-11 from 3, one of those 11 was a heave fading away when he caught the ball with 1 second on the shot clock so if you take that out he shot 40% from 3 vs two top 25 caliber squads. Once ron starts hitting the shot consistently, his iq, handle, grit, and toughness is going to make him an absolute force especially in his upperclassmen years when he sheds the baby fat. Ron is an extremely confident kid and I think he is going to just continue to grow and grow and grow, I look forward to seeing him step up vocally in the 2nd half and become a vocal leader as well.

6) Myles Johnson is starting to utilize his size. Hes still a little to tenative for my liking but we saw vs Minny him being a little more assertive. In the 2nd half I want pike to challenge myles to be meaner, be nastier and be more assertive in the post. That wing span and size of his is insane. Now if he get just develop more of a mean streak and start banging around down low he could be a force. Shaq D has also been a solid contributor, i dont wanna forget to mention him.

7) Assuming Eugene comes back, I want to see him move the ball better. Hes a warrior, a guy you love to have on your team but the ball needs to stop getting stuck on the wing when he catches it. If he catches it 15+ feet out it’s gotta either be a mid-range shot in rhythm or a relatively quick pass out. Trying to back a guy down from 15 feet results in far too many low % shots, doubles and ultimately turnovers. I want the 2017-2018 Eugene version PLUS the capability to pick and pop from 3.

8) The culture is changing. How many times in the past number of years have you seen our teams just take their beatings and walk away quietly like dogs with their tails between their legs? Not this year. These KIDS (freshman) fight until the very last minute. Down 21 with 5 minutes left and you throw a ball at my head? Not today. Your teams been showing us up for a 5 minute stretch and you wanna try and disrespect me and dunk on me? **** outta here. Our toughest kids are our freshman and the upper classmen are going to have to take their games to another level if they wanna avoid being shown up and having the team taken over by freshman. Mulcahy is in the same mold. Tough, confident kid.

Overall imo we probably finish something like 11-19 and the W/L record might not look great at the end of the year but if we can hang tight with some of these tourney bound teams while playing a few 18 year olds it will go a longggg way towards us being able to realistically have expectations for an above .500 record in 2019-2020. And who knows if mulcahy comes in and keeps working on his shot, jacob young can prove me wrong and be a + player and we can land a grad transfer scorer along with a mickey pearson (please spare me from we only have one ship left) then who knows, MAYBE just MAYBE we can dream of the tourney in 2019-2020 IF caleb, ron, and tez continue on this upward trajectory that weve seen over the past month. This years not the year but I am excited the direction this program is headed in.

Let's start with not finishing in last place.
 
If we don’t learn to make 3 pointers (at least 5 per game) we will have strong difficulty finishing another win
 
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