Why can’t we still finish 10-10 in the B1G?

[RU848789]

We were inflated at the mid point last season and came back to earth the second half. The whole body of work was an NIT team that made an early exit losing at home to Hofstra. Let’s evaluate at the end of the season for a true comparison.

Our only problem last year was lacking quality depth, so that when Mag went down, our performance really suffered. And despite that, if not for the stolen OSU game we were easily in and even despite that, we still should've been in the tourney based on body of work, as about 90% of "experts" said.

 

[fluoxetine]

@BillyC80 The full probabilities from what you gave me:

2-18 <0.5%
3-17 <0.5%
4-16 2%
5-15 7%
6-14 16%
7-13 23%
8-12 23%
9-11 17%
10-10 8%
11-9 3%
12-8 1%
13-7 <0.5%
14-6 <0.5%

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

One of your worst posts. So by analogy, remove LeBron from the teams he's been on and those teams are mediocre. Got it. The team is who the team is and with Edey they've been top 5, while Purdue has been a consistent top 10-15 team since around 2010, i.e., years before Edey arrived and only really had one hiccup in 2019-2020, where they failed to make the NCAAs or be in the top 10-15. Sounds pretty elite to me other than not having always done well in the tourney.

I kind of like "prisoners of the moment" start. We are all (almost all) kind of guilty of it.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

@BillyC80 The full probabilities from what you gave me:

2-18 <0.5%
3-17 <0.5%
4-16 2%
5-15 7%
6-14 16%
7-13 23%
8-12 23%
9-11 17%
10-10 8%
11-9 3%
12-8 1%
13-7 <0.5%
14-6 <0.5%

rerun those numbers if the 0 button on your calculator gets stuck from spilled soda

 

[BillyC80]

@BillyC80 The full probabilities from what you gave me:

2-18 <0.5%
3-17 <0.5%
4-16 2%
5-15 7%
6-14 16%
7-13 23%
8-12 23%
9-11 17%
10-10 8%
11-9 3%
12-8 1%
13-7 <0.5%
14-6 <0.5%

That’s awesome flux, much appreciated!

It’s about what I figured, just over 50% chance of 8 or more wins.

PS I assume these probabilities go up if we beat PSU, and then again if we beat UM.

 

[needmorecowbell]

Sure, it’s an uphill climb, but isn’t it possible to win out at home while picking up two road wins?

Not throwing in the towel unless and until we get our 11th B1G loss.

As a fan I look at it the same way as our coaches and players do…with optimism.

Can they? Sure. It’s just very unlikely. The team should expect to win every game. As a fan, you can be optimistic but it’s just truly not realistic. No one should throw in the towel. I will be there cheering and losing my voice but I’m not walking out pissed if they lose because they don’t have a team that can match the best of the top 7-8 big ten teams.

 

[Scangg]

There's literally no difference from the eye test of most of this season vs last season, other than scheduling two other variable OOC games.

Prisoners of the moment don't account for the entire season.

I don't view Purdue as some elite program, which is disconnect #1....

Did Purdue impress you in the NCAAs 3 years ago.....2 years ago.....last year.....??? Even yesterday, I wasn't impressed with Purdue whatsoever.

Purdue is a Top 30 program with a unique, once an every 10 to 20 year 4 year college player. A player who's not good enough to be a 1 or 2 and done player and off to the NBA....

I would highly suggest a reality check on actual talent....Purdue is a balanced, safe, sturdy roster where the 2nd best player is close in talent to the 9th or 10th player. But remove Edey from camping out in the lane for 5 to 6 seconds in the paint or remove Edey from Purdue and that's a borderline NIT roster with its remaining parts.

Regardless of what you think of Purdue "as a program" they were the #1 ranked team in the country with the National Player of the Year

Trying to move goalposts as usual to talk about the "program" and not the team we played and beat

 

[fluoxetine]

The last times we played Purdue, in reverse order, they were ranked
#2 (23-24)
#5 (22-23)
#1 (22-23)
#5 (21-22)
#1 (21-22)
----
unranked (20-21)
unranked (19-20)
unranked (19-20)
unranked (18-19)
#8 (17-18)
#3 (17-18)
#13 (17-18)
#16 (16-17)

Since Pike has been coaching here their final Kenpom rankings (or current for this season):
#2
#7
#14
#25
#24
#9
#5
#19

But Hawk doesn't think they're elite because he watched them take a couple bad losses in March.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

in fairness to Hawk it was more than a couple

 

[fluoxetine]

Update. Now using the following probabilities:
at Maryland 25%
Wisconsin 34%
Northwestern 48%
at Minnesota 37%
at Purdue 6%
Maryland 51%
Michigan 58%
at Nebraska 28%
at Wisconsin 15%
Ohio St 47%

3-17 1.0%
4-16 6.1%
5-15 16.9%
6-14 26.3%
7-13 25.5%
8-12 15.9%
9-11 6.4%
10-10 1.6%
11-9 0.3%
12-8 ~0.0%
13-7 ~0.0%

Median 6-14

 

[BillyC80]

Update. Now using the following probabilities:
at Maryland 25%
Wisconsin 34%
Northwestern 48%
at Minnesota 37%
at Purdue 6%
Maryland 51%
Michigan 58%
at Nebraska 28%
at Wisconsin 15%
Ohio St 47%

3-17 1.0%
4-16 6.1%
5-15 16.9%
6-14 26.3%
7-13 25.5%
8-12 15.9%
9-11 6.4%
10-10 1.6%
11-9 0.3%
12-8 ~0.0%
13-7 ~0.0%

Median 6-14

Booo. Those probabilities, especially at home, seem too low.

 

[RUBOB72]

We just don't have great shooters, either in close or from three or from the FT line. It is what it is and I have trouble seeing anything to fix that unless Gavin starts going off (I think he has the potential to be a very good shooter). So while we'll have some good shooting games like SHU or good shooting halves like today, we're going to have to rely on our defense and just enough offense for wins and that likely means not that many wins, which makes 10-10 a tall order. Would love to see it, but I don't think we'll do better than 8 B1G wins at this point.

Just make some of the missed layups , chippies inside and we’ll look better.

 

[G- RUnit]

Booo. Those probabilities, especially at home, seem too low.

Think NW far tougher.
OSU far easier.
We always play Wiscy tough so believe percentage should be higher.
Maryland is intriguing. They are playing well and Willard is a good coach.
But we match up very well with them. They beat us at home last year and we beat them on the road? Do think we get in Willard’s head. Their scoring comes from three guys? We both play great D. I think percentages should be a tad more positive for RU.

 

[RU848789]

Just make some of the missed layups , chippies inside and we’ll look better.

True, but why would the same players start making a lot more of them? On the other hand, with JW now on board, that's the kind of change that I think gets us to 8 B1G wins and maybe more.

 

[fluoxetine]

"Just make the layups" is up there with the "if Simpson could make 70% from midrange they would be good shots" takes.

Yes, if we were better at shooting we would look better.

 

[Knight Owl]

JWill changes the team for the better…bigly.

 

[BillyC80]

When I started this thread, I had anticipated wins vs PSU and at UM would give us a great shot at getting to 10 B1G victories.

The home loss to PSU really hurt. However, the infusion of JWill and to a lesser extent Ogbole, plus the win at UM has kept the door open ever so slightly.

Now. even if we could sweep our remaining home games, which is no gimme by any means, we still have to find two more road wins, a very tall order.

If we find a way to beat MD on the road, then to me, 10-10 will look like a distinct possibility again.

 

[NickRU714]

"Just make the layups" is up there with the "if Simpson could make 70% from midrange they would be good shots" takes.

Yes, if we were better at shooting we would look better.

Ha! One of my favorite posts in a similar vein was in discussing RHJs draft prospects.
Someone said roughly: "If RHJ he was 6'8" 215lbs he'd be a guaranteed 1st round pick"
Yes, if RHJ were 4in taller and weighed 40lbs less (i.e. a completely different player) - he'd have different draft prospects.

 

[Scangg]

"Just make the layups" is up there with the "if Simpson could make 70% from midrange they would be good shots" takes.

Yes, if we were better at shooting we would look better.

I get your point, but a B1G team should be able to make significantly more shots around the rim. Don't you always say even a season worth of data isn't a big enough sample size? Odds we revert closer to the mean on this?

 

[fluoxetine]

I get your point, but a B1G team should be able to make significantly more shots around the rim. Don't you always say even a season worth of data isn't a big enough sample size? Odds we revert closer to the mean on this?

I do agree that we are probably a bit better than we've looked, but the ceiling is likely still "bad". Usually when I make those statements I'm talking about a single season of 3p attempts for a single player. It still applies to something like eFG for an entire team but to a lesser degree.

 

[lakejj]

"Just make the layups" is up there with the "if Simpson could make 70% from midrange they would be good shots" takes.

Yes, if we were better at shooting we would look better.

If we shot better we would be better at shooting

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Somehow this thread has continued....

For the Purdue is elite or great people, I see a very well coached team that has improved at guard, but 2 levels below the talent, skill levels of Kansas, UConn, North Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama and probably Duke as well. They simply don't dominate games from player 1 to 5.

I also never watched Purdue at any point in time last year or this year and said "there's no way RU can beat this team"......and I could actually say that when RU was at the RAC less than 2 weeks ago. If fans walked out of the RAC impressed with Purdue, I don't know what to tell you.

Purdue and Wisconsin are extremely well coached, but have Top 25 to 35 rosters. Neither is a Top 5 to 10 program. And I have 2 teams with better rosters than in UConn and Kansas, with a big player or center, that is somewhat close in talent level in Clingan and Hunter Dickinson.

If UConn or Kansas play Edey and Purdue, if Clingan or Dickinson offset or come close to matching what Edey does, where does Purdue have an advantage, anywhere else on the court. The answer is nowhere else.

RU fans are blinded by something that isn't reality....Northwestern is a very solid good team and beat Purdue once in their own gym and needed a FOURTY SIX to EIGHT FT discrepancy to beat Northwestern in Mackey arena.....and this is fans belief in Purdue last year or this year LMAO.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

ill take a winning team over a talented team every time

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

ill take a winning team over a talented team every time

Winning team is very generic.....there are 75 likely quality/winning teams that can make the NCAA tournament field of 68. The bar isn't that high.

When fans want to contradict themselves, is where it gets funny......we can't try and talk ourselves into last year's RU being significantly better than this year, solely based on beating Purdue last year. We played Purdue early in the B1G schedule and they were breaking in, 2 true freshman starting guards. To compare that team 13 months ago to this year's Purdue team, isn't relevant or close to the same thing.

We also have fans who keep saying RU needs to beef up its OOC schedule, as if playing Top 5 Purdue 2 or 3 times somehow isn't relevant. You can't say the schedule is a problem and then turn around and say Purdue is some great team.

You either are playing a great schedule or you're not. If Purdue is a true Top 5 (which the talent level clearly shows it is not), then why are fans clamoring to play Duke, UNC, Kansas, UConn, Kentucky at MSG?? Because they know what's legitimately a Top 5 outfit and what's not.

I believe Purdue is extremely well coached, but extremely limited on how they can win games. Any team with a reasonable post presence on offense, who can pull Edey away from the paint and shoot a perimeter shot AND has some ability to defend the post, is going to give Purdue major headaches.

Michigan State is the most talented roster in the B1G, then Illinois and then Purdue and Wisconsin and others mixed in. Purdue has a unique player, but he is not carrying that roster very far, until their guards and wings start really contributing at a high level.

And it was a disgrace to have Northwestern battle Purdue and have every call go against them, to a 46 to 8 FT difference. I am pretty confident that the NCAA tournament officials, aren't going to gift Zach Edey 20 to 25 FTs a game. Even 2 or 3 of his baskets against RU at the RAC, were clearly fouls "on the floor", which is way before the shooting motion begins.......the refs gifted Edey those "And 1s".....

Why do I think RU is much closer to the Top of the B1G vs not....?? Purdue beat Wisconsin by 6 at Madison and Purdue won at the RAC by 8. Not a large difference IMO.

If Wisconsin is a Top 15 ranked program (again, well coached but not elite, probably in the 30 to 40 range), they should have been able to close the gap vs Purdue.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Pre Mag injury everything you can point to said we were one of the best teams in B1G

Record
Net
Metrics
Pundits

 

[RUBOB72]

That is true we were however it didn’t happen and so we need to get over it and move the program forward.

 

[JavaDunk18]

Win tonight, especially if offense keeps improving , and it’s definitely possible.
Wisconsin is overrated, I think we can pull that one off at home. Northwestern is pesky, & will be more difficult. The other home games are more winnable.. tonight & Minnesota are the most winnable road games..

 

[PiscatawayMike]

Win tonight, especially if offense keeps improving , and it’s definitely possible.
Wisconsin is overrated, I think we can pull that one off at home. Northwestern is pesky, & will be more difficult. The other home games are more winnable.. tonight & Minnesota are the most winnable road games..

We really need to beat Wiscy or/and Northwestern. I hate to say it, but since the Mag injury, the RAC hasn't been the advantage it's been built up to be. No notable wins to speak of (and several ugly double-digit losses). Need to change that... pronto!

 

[Scangg]

We really need to beat Wiscy or/and Northwestern. I hate to say it, but since the Mag injury, the RAC hasn't been the advantage it's been built up to be. No notable wins to speak of. Need to change that... pronto!

💯

The RAC needs to give us an upset or two. It hasn't been thr advantage it has been in the past as if late, but I'm not writing it off from happening this season

Win tonight and the RAC will really be rocking next game!

 

[fluoxetine]

Wisconsin 36%
Northwestern 49%
at Minnesota 37%
at Purdue 6%
Maryland 54%
Michigan 59%
at Nebraska 29%
at Wisconsin 16%
Ohio St 49%

---

4-16 1.0%
5-15 6.7%
6-14 18.4%
7-13 27.9%
8-12 25.5%
9-11 14.4%
10-10 4.9% <= General vicinity of bubble
11-9 1.0%
12-8 0.1%
13-7 ~0.0%

 

[Plum Street]

Wisconsin 36%
Northwestern 49%
at Minnesota 37%
at Purdue 6%
Maryland 54%
Michigan 59%
at Nebraska 29%
at Wisconsin 16%
Ohio St 49%

---

4-16 1.0%
5-15 6.7%
6-14 18.4%
7-13 27.9%
8-12 25.5%
9-11 14.4%
10-10 4.9% <= General vicinity of bubble
11-9 1.0%
12-8 0.1%
13-7 ~0.0%

Not at 10-10. People here said we won’t be on the bubble with that record

 

[fluoxetine]

Well I say general vicinity. If we are 10-10 we will be in the conversation. That doesn't mean we actually get in though.

 

[PhillyRU]

I think it’s more of a who thing than a 10-10 thing. I think we have to hope Maryland reenters Q1, go 3-1 in our remaining Q1 games (Herculean ask) and avoid any more Q3 losses.

In that case we’d be 5-9 Quad 1, 8-12 Q1-2 and 17-13 overall. Still likely not enough but I think there’s maybe a 3-4% chance

 

[G- RUnit]

Win tonight, especially if offense keeps improving , and it’s definitely possible.
Wisconsin is overrated, I think we can pull that one off at home. Northwestern is pesky, & will be more difficult. The other home games are more winnable.. tonight & Minnesota are the most winnable road games..

Minnesota just beat MSU. Quietly sneaking way into NCAA tourney conversation.

 

[JavaDunk18]

So it would be nice to return the favor & put fork in Gophers NCAA hopes..

 

[bac2therac]

I think the last 12 games need to be grouped into 3 games at a time

Penn State
at Michigan
at Maryland

RU needs to be beat Penn State. It would be demoralizing for the program and fanbase if it cannot. But another question is can it pick up a win in one of the other two road games. Maryland is getting better by the minute and their strength is their D and that does not bode well for RU. Michigan is having a rough season and has been highly erratic even at home. Its a 50/50 type game but RU has never won there. 2-1 would be the goal here and if you want post season, Michigan is a game you have to win.


Wisconsin
Northwestern
at Minnesota

Tough stretch, although the first two are at the RAC, those are top 4 league schools. The matchups do not look good on paper but I still believe RU is going to upset a big name this year. I like the idea of splitting the first 2. RU has lost at Minnesota for 2 straight years and the Gophers are vastly improved. Its a game that RU could win but will they? 1-2 in this stretch might not be so bad considering the alternative of 0-3


at Purdue
Maryland
Michigan

Purdue on the road is an auto loss but coming back to the RAC. Maryland as mentioned before is tougher and they have won at the RAC before but sometimes are vulnerable on the road. Michigan at home absolutely is a must win. If RU wants to go post season they might have to go 2-1


at Nebraska
at Wisconsin
Ohio State

tougher end to the season. I dont like RUs chances to win at Nebraska or Wisconsin. Ohio State is not good and I expect RU to win that game. 1-2 here is the call.

so get to NIT selection I think RU needs a 17-14 finish which means going 7-5 the rest of the way

2-1
1-2
2-1
1-2

even giving them the optimistic case of winning at Michigan and beating Maryland at the RAC that still gets me to 6 wins...finding that 7th is going to mean finding a another road win somewhere at Minnesota or Nebraska. Its going to be tough given the inconsistency of this team.

16-15 might place them on nit bubble, I believe low and mid level conference tourney regular season champs who do not win their conference tourneys are no longer given auto bids to the NIT so that may change the dynamic of the NIT field but not sure if a 17-16 type record would be enough.

so we got to 2-1...not the way anyone thought but 2-1 nonetheless. Now can RU go at 1-2 in the next 3 at minimum...if you want NIT this is where we might have to go 2-1

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Smells like we need to go 7-2 rest of the way. 1% chance feels right. Need to get that offensive needle moved to 1.00 PPP, that is a HUGE ask.

 

[RUBOB72]

6-3 and we still have chance… all depends on where we get in B1G tourney.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

BAC.....since NIT is going away with win your regular season you are in....do you think NIT goes back to the monetization model and tries to pick teams to host games and hope to get them to MSG?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

6-3 and we still have chance… all depends on where we get in B1G tourney.

I am starting to believe post season torunament runs mean very little