Have to get to 11-9, and better beat Wisc and Nw to start. Road games we better win 3 of 4 At Purdue At Wisc At Minn and At Nebraska and can’t lose to Michigan or MD at home. The equation needed to get to 11-9 has so many variables and even then, it would only put RU squarely on the bubble as a last 4 in type
Why can’t we still finish 10-10 in the B1G?
- Thread starter BillyC80
- Start date
Hope to not see Illinois or Minnesota in the BigTen tourney (it is in Minneapolis).
Wisconsin seems like a good matchup for Rutgers even though they are a very solid team.
Playing Purdue with
JWill and Ogbole now doesn’t even seem like an impossibility…especially on a neutral floor.
Wisconsin seems like a good matchup for Rutgers even though they are a very solid team.
Playing Purdue with
JWill and Ogbole now doesn’t even seem like an impossibility…especially on a neutral floor.
7-2 would be really tough. At that point we may as well go 4-0 and claim the autobid.
Flux, this probability chart got me thinking. After we lost to Penn State, the odds of us winning at UM (30%) and at MD (27%) must have been even lower than shown here. If we use 28% and 25% respectively, would that mean our probability of beating BOTH of those teams on the road was around 7%?
If that’s correct then we exceeded that probability by quite a big margin, in part due to the addition of JWill and to a lesser extent Ogbole, and the lineup changes that have come as a result.
So now I’m wondering, using the admittedly small sample size of two games with this new lineup, if it’s realistic to increase the probabilities for each future game by 50% (so, 20% becomes 30%, 40% becomes 60%, and so on)?
If so, then our probability of winning each of our remaining 5 home games and at least one more road game are all above 50%. And of course if we do win 6 more, then we get to 10-10 in conference (one of our away games would have a 45% win probability, so some hope for an 11-9 conference record, as unlikely as it may seem).
I’m liking the way we’re trending. Quick question: shouldn’t we have at least a 1% chance to win out, and maybe a 3% chance to finish 7-1?
The zeros are of course from rounding, they aren't literally zero but are less than 0.5%.
To get probability of winning out is simple: just multiply the probabilities of winning each game
0.51 * 0.41 * 0.07 * 0.57 * 0.65 * 0.31 * 0.20 * 0.55 = 0.00018492 i.e. 0.018492%.
The thing to keep in mind is that those odds will change over the coming weeks. If Rutgers wins the next two games, the odds of winning future games probably increases at that point from what we are projecting today. We also could have unforeseen things like coaches being fired, like what was announced today (Holtmann at OSU) that will change perspectives.
Also, the confirmation that Berry is out may not be included in that NW 51%, no? I would give us more than a 51% chance tomorrow night. Plus the JW/EO effect - we are no longer the same team that played from season start through Penn State.
Northwestern 100%!
I will let the flu take it from there.
I will let the flu take it from there.
Lol, thanks! I’m thinking our odds to finish 10-10 should be about 25% now, given the 51% chances of beating NW. A win against Minnesota should have us above 50% for 10-10.
at Minnesota 39%
at Purdue 8%
Maryland 56%
Michigan 65%
at Nebraska 32%
at Wisconsin 20%
Ohio St 55%
-----
6-14 2%
7-13 12%
8-12 28%
9-11 32%
10-10 20%
11-9 6%
12-8 1%
13-7 0%
at Purdue 8%
Maryland 56%
Michigan 65%
at Nebraska 32%
at Wisconsin 20%
Ohio St 55%
-----
6-14 2%
7-13 12%
8-12 28%
9-11 32%
10-10 20%
11-9 6%
12-8 1%
13-7 0%
This team will never lose again
at Minnesota 100%
at Purdue 100%
Maryland 100%
Michigan 100%
at Nebraska 100%
at Wisconsin 100%
Ohio St 100%
-----
6-14 0%
7-13 0%
8-12 0%
9-11 0%
10-10 0%
11-9 0%
12-8 0%
13-7 100%
I’m on speaking terms with the OP so I’ll put in a good word
Early contender for post of the year. You know this is how all us Scarlet colored glasses folks have been thinking since Michigan. Feels like Super Bowl Sunday coming up for me. I’m ready to get in the car and drive to Minnesota
I assume this model is averaging the performance over the whole year. If it just took the last 4 games for each team it would have radically different numbers.
We were underdogs in all 4 games in the JWill era. These were the odds before we lost to PSU:
at Michigan 30%
at Maryland 27%
Wisconsin 34%
Northwestern 49%
And of course we won all 4.
And these were the odds before PSU, for games going forward:
at Minnesota 39% (same odds today, 39%)
at Purdue 6% (slightly better today, 8%)
Maryland 53% (slightly better today, 56%)
Michigan 56% (better today, 65%)
at Nebraska 30% (slightly better today, 32%)
at Wisconsin 16% (slightly better today, 20%)
Ohio St 47% (better today, 55%)
Thanks. But what I’m saying is that all these teams have changed. Lost players. Gained players. Had players grow or slump. RU has changed way more than most. So projecting outcomes based on season averages isn’t very accurate for RU in particular. Even with adding the last 4 games into the model, it’s still mostly predicting how the pre JWill team would have performed.
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