Totally understand but will be relevant in 1 month as conference season for all schools heat up.
OFFICIAL NET Thread - 2022/23
- Thread starter fatsam98
- Start date
There are fewer data points being included than there will be later in the year.
If you get a 70 on your first test and an 90 on your second test, your average jumps quickly from 70 to 80. But if you averaged 70 over your first 10 tests, and get a 90 on your 11th... it only goes up to 71.8. If you averaged 70 on 50 tests and get a 90 on your 51st... it only goes up to 70.4.
Individual results in mid-Dec can still make fairly significant swings, and dominoes falling in one part of the model can more easily knock others down somewhere else. As we get closer to Feb/Mar, things will be more stable.
If you get a 70 on your first test and an 90 on your second test, your average jumps quickly from 70 to 80. But if you averaged 70 over your first 10 tests, and get a 90 on your 11th... it only goes up to 71.8. If you averaged 70 on 50 tests and get a 90 on your 51st... it only goes up to 70.4.
Individual results in mid-Dec can still make fairly significant swings, and dominoes falling in one part of the model can more easily knock others down somewhere else. As we get closer to Feb/Mar, things will be more stable.
Reminder:
The five highest NET-ranked teams to miss the tournament were … 2019 NC State (NET: 33); 2019 Clemson (35); 2019 Texas (38); 2019 Furman (41); and 2021 Penn State (42).
These teams were lacking in Q1 wins. Really sucks we had such rotten luck with that OSU finish. I feel like that would have helped us more than Temple and SHU are hurting us. Plus I can't help thinking we would have done a better job against SHU without that hangover. We can't let that shot define our season. Gotta reverse course starting tomorrow.
The five highest NET-ranked teams to miss the tournament were … 2019 NC State (NET: 33); 2019 Clemson (35); 2019 Texas (38); 2019 Furman (41); and 2021 Penn State (42).
These teams were lacking in Q1 wins. Really sucks we had such rotten luck with that OSU finish. I feel like that would have helped us more than Temple and SHU are hurting us. Plus I can't help thinking we would have done a better job against SHU without that hangover. We can't let that shot define our season. Gotta reverse course starting tomorrow.
Yup, that screw job at OSU cost us the SHU game as well. There was a clear hang over effect from.that crushing defeat
Up 4 spots from 45 yesterday to 41 today
Miami drops 6 spots to 59 following a sleepwalk over a horrible St Francis team. Game was tied at half and Miami ended up winning 91-76. Not sure the intricacies of why they dropped so much, but my high level takeaway is that unimpressive wins over Bucknell or Coppin st means we’ll drop in net. Need to blow them out to hold serve.
The unfortunate effect of “metrics” like KenPom and NET is that you can build a 25-30 point lead in the 2nd half against a cruddy team, but if you then play your deep reserves earlier than the last 2 minutes and end up only winning by 18, the win doesn’t pump up your metrics as much.
So you lose a chance to get your reserves valuable playing/learning time.
But, yeah, we definitely need to CRUSH Bucknell and Coppin State. Sorry Bisons and Sam Sessoms!
I think it might have been other dominoes falling for them. Cornell dropped from 104 to 141 after getting blown out by Syracuse. Miami only managed to beat Cornell by 2 points at home, so that close win looks a lot worse now.
RU is now #41
Results:
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
23 - Indiana (W)
29 - @Ohio St (L*)
59 - @Miami (L)
Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
76 - UMass-Lowell (W)
95 - Seton Hall (L)
109 - Wake Forest (W)
188 - (N) Temple (L)
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 141+ Away)
203 - Rider (W)
310 - Sacred Heart (W)
326 - Central CT St (W)
333 - Columbia (W)
Upcoming
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
3 - @Purdue
23 - @Indiana
30 - @Illinois
29 - Ohio St
31 - @Iowa
43 - @Wisconsin
50 - @Penn St
61 - @Northwestern
62 - @MSU
Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
31 - Iowa
34 - Maryland
50 - Penn St
61 - Northwestern
62 - (N)MSU
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
80 - Nebraska
86 - Michigan
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 241+ Away)
207 - Bucknell
248 - Coppin St
240 - Minnesota
240 - @Minnesota
Notes:
- Big Ten does not have a ton of home Q1 opportunities this year.
- If we're going to pick up Q1 wins the rest of the way, they're going to need to be on the road for the most part. Iowa, Maryland, and OSU are on the cusp.
Edit: to put Temple as neutral, not home.
Results:
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
23 - Indiana (W)
29 - @Ohio St (L*)
59 - @Miami (L)
Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
76 - UMass-Lowell (W)
95 - Seton Hall (L)
109 - Wake Forest (W)
188 - (N) Temple (L)
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 141+ Away)
203 - Rider (W)
310 - Sacred Heart (W)
326 - Central CT St (W)
333 - Columbia (W)
Upcoming
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
3 - @Purdue
23 - @Indiana
30 - @Illinois
29 - Ohio St
31 - @Iowa
43 - @Wisconsin
50 - @Penn St
61 - @Northwestern
62 - @MSU
Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
31 - Iowa
34 - Maryland
50 - Penn St
61 - Northwestern
62 - (N)MSU
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
80 - Nebraska
86 - Michigan
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 241+ Away)
207 - Bucknell
248 - Coppin St
240 - Minnesota
240 - @Minnesota
Notes:
- Big Ten does not have a ton of home Q1 opportunities this year.
- If we're going to pick up Q1 wins the rest of the way, they're going to need to be on the road for the most part. Iowa, Maryland, and OSU are on the cusp.
Edit: to put Temple as neutral, not home.
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I think Iowa gets into Q1 at home and I think Michigan gets into Q2.
Also if Minnesota is 240 they are Q3 on the road. And Temple was a neutral site game, that is Q3 not Q4.
Also if Minnesota is 240 they are Q3 on the road. And Temple was a neutral site game, that is Q3 not Q4.
Thank you. Scared me with the Temple Q4 loss column .. not that they couldn’t fall that far, which would hurt
Anything’s possible, but they are #113 in Kenpom. Probably more likely to get into Q2 than Q4 (but mostly likely stay in Q3)
Only true if you assume teams like Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, and Sam Houston State will remain in the top 30 (they won't).
It's all about the student athletes lol. Creating a negative incentive to get your bench players in. Hate this crap.
That doesn't make any sense, though, especially for the first handful of games in a year. You're getting credit for preseason expectations, or because a team beat up on a 300+ opponent in their first game before playing you?
There's no way to gauge how good/bad a team is until they've played a critical mass of games. Indiana's a perfect example of this.... so many talking heads saying they were going to be tops in the B1G, and they've been repeatedly exposed.
That makes no sense. Early season rankings aren’t accurate at all, you can’t base anything on that.
There is an unaddressed shifting parameter effect as teams evolve over the course of a season, but it'll never be added to the formula for like 5 very good reasons. Don't think a credible ranking of Temple circa 11/18 would help us much, either. That is a pretty bad team
It's the same thing as teams moving down because a key player got injured or something else. Just hold off of the early season rankings then. You've seen enough of basketball to know it's a long season and how good or bad a team is is sometimes is completely different from Nov/Dec vs. Feb.
Teams get hot and teams get cold. If Indy were to lose half their games going forward they were still an undefeated top 10 team at that moment. At a minimum a Q1 team.
A team going from say 20 when you played them to 26 a few weeks later shouldn't cost you a quality win.
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Again, it makes no sense. If you "just hold off of the early season rankings", how do you gauge what level a team was when you played them earlier in the season? If you retroactively apply rankings to Game 1 after 15 games have been played, how is that any different than what is happening right now?
As much as teams get hot/cold, they can also have front/back-loaded schedules. Why penalize all mid/low-major schools because they play their toughest games OOC in the early part of the season before the "early season" rankings shook out, and then later reward major conference teams because they play harder games at the end of the season?
A team is the sum of its performance - as you get later in the season, you get a much clearer picture of that performance in a range of settings. Using the most complete picture to evaluate a team is better than trying to intentionally blind the model to only see data "in the moment".
i UNDERSTAND EVERYTHING YOU'RE SAYING AND i FIGURED THIS WAS GOING TO BE THE REPLY. BUT i STILL THINK THERE'S A BETTER WAY (sorry for the caps lock).
Was the Rutgers Team the Hall beat the same one that beat OSU?
IDK..I just don't like it. Thanks for not just calling me stupid.
Incorrect.
Just moved up 1 from 41 to 40. Temple now a Q4 loss and still didn't hurt our NET which is good to see.
Q1 1-2
Q2 0-0
Q3 2-1
Q4 4-1
That's something Pike and staff must have in mind when we see the starters in late against the weaker opponents to ensure the margin stays high in the blowouts. If only the refs hadn't blown the OSU win for us, and if only we could've stayed healthy leading into Temple/Miami...
Yes, that is exceedingly stupid and I hate it too.
You know when a team is up by 6 or 7 with ~10 seconds left and everyone stops playing and they just dribble out the clock uncontested? Who will be the first team to realize that matters and play hard until the end (like in the old days)?
Agree, if we go up 25 with 7 or 8 minutes left, under normal circumstances maybe we go with Choi, Jalen, Wolf, etc but instead we’re riding Cliff, Caleb, etc until 2-3 min left. Ridiculous
Temple dropped from 180 to 202 (into Q4)
BUT
Miami jumped from 61 to 52
Wake jumped from 98 to 85
SHU improved from 95 to 90
Seems like that all balanced out for today.
BUT
Miami jumped from 61 to 52
Wake jumped from 98 to 85
SHU improved from 95 to 90
Seems like that all balanced out for today.
It washes out in terms of NET ranking but is absolutely bad overall because quads are stupid.
I think Temple will climb back out of Q4 though.
Yes quads are very dumb. The RPI system (not the formula but the method of sorting data) made a lot more sense.
Look at top 25 wins, top 50 wins and top 100 wins.
Look at road wins against tourney teams.
Look at bad losses or if few - worst losses on resume.
Look at total loss count and total win count.
Wins against the field.
Done.
Look at top 25 wins, top 50 wins and top 100 wins.
Look at road wins against tourney teams.
Look at bad losses or if few - worst losses on resume.
Look at total loss count and total win count.
Wins against the field.
Done.
I was expecting a bigger jump in our NET from that Wake pummeling of Duke. But I didn't know that our Temple loss dropped to Q4. Hopefully, it won't take much for that game to to get back into Q3 territory.
Will be interesting to see how far Iowa falls tomorrow. They're #27 today and just lost to #350 Eastern Illinois, at home, by 10.
...and gave up 92 points. The only games where Eastern Illinois has scored more than 75 this year have been vs. Blackburn and vs. St. Mary of the Woods College, neither of which are D1
...and gave up 92 points. The only games where Eastern Illinois has scored more than 75 this year have been vs. Blackburn and vs. St. Mary of the Woods College, neither of which are D1
