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Brody thanks for the huge belly laugh....needed that after shoveling...Looks like a bust for sure:
Looks like a bust for sure:
4.5" as of 5 am, after a nice shovel. Sleet line looks like it's approaching the Raritan - if that's true and if the cold air from dynamics as the storm strengthens doesn't push that sleet line back soon, this will be a pretty big bust.
5.0" as of 5:30 am. Still all snow, but that sleet line looks like it's only 5-6 miles south of me at the Raritan.
So, 20 minutes later, we go from 6.5" to 7.5". 3" per hour rate for the last 40 min, even mixed with sleet at times. I have never in my lfe seen aggregates like this - they're literally 3-4" across. Wife took a few pics, but not sure if they'll come out - will try to post later.
NWS updated maps again. These are looking like last night's NAM, lol. Pretty big bust for the I-95 corridor in terms of snowfall, but not in terms of total frozen precip, at least from maybe Trenton northward, where it hasn't been rain as far as I know. I had about 7" of snow/sleet on the ground about 90 minuntes ago (7.5" now) and I shoveled the driveway and I now have about 2" of sleet there, which is the equivalent of about 6" of snow, so I have about 13" of "snow equivalent," in terms of total frozen precip mass, which is just as hard to shovel or plow and is just as bad on the roads - it's just not the same depth it would be if it were all snow.
Is Leggets open?All rain and most important flooding came short of house. Good day for me.
I think this is funny.....if I got the joke.
Jimmy is new in town.So, accumulating snow/sleet (mostly sleet, never got rain) looks to be over and I just shoveled after shoveling twice before and this was the hardest, as expected, as it was about 3" of 80% sleet. My final "official" measurement of snow on the ground is 8.0", which is consistent with the 7.5-8.0" numbers I've seen from the NWS and on line. I had about 5" of snow before the changeover, then got maybe 1/2" of sleet and then had an hour or so of 3" per hour snow with those giant 4" diameter flakes to get to a depth of 7.5".
That's when I did my 2nd shovel to the bare driveway and after that we had close to 100% sleet for a few hours, heavy at times, and I had 3" of sleet on the driveway when I just shoveled. However, as expected, the sleet, which is 3x as dense as snow, compacted the underlying snow significantly, such that my final measurement wasn't 7.5" + 3" (10.5"), but rather, 8.0". As I said in the most recent post above, however, I strongly believe that snow/sleet mass is a far better way to evaluate and compare storms on a consistent basis, but I do get that that's not the way it's done, as it would take too much effort (melting snow cores).
Doing the calc's though, if I assume my roughly 7.5" of ~90% snow that fell had a typical 10:1 ratio of snow to liquid that would be 0.75" of liquid equivalent. And then if I assume the roughly 3" of ~90% sleet that fell had a typical ratio of 3:1, that would be 1.0" of liquid equivalent, making a sum total of 1.75" of liquid equivalent. Converting that back to all snow, assuming a typical 10:1 ratio, that would be 17.5" of snow equivalent that fell. Pretty close to the esimated LE from most of the models which were showing 12-24" of snow, mostly (1.2-2.4" liquid), before the storm.
Certainly 1.75" of LE is more than 2X the LE one might assume from 8" of "snow" on the ground (0.8" LE if one assumed a 10:1 ratio) and is more than twice the mass of a typical 8" pure snowfall, meaning this felt like shoveling (and I assume plowing) a 17.5" snowfall, not an 8" snowfall and it was really difficult to drive in also, plus it's going to take much longer for this dense snow/sleet fall to melt than a typical 8" snowfall would - how often do we see NYC streets so snow/sleet covered at midday in mid-March?
And from a "forecasting bust" perspective, yeah, 8" vs. the general 18-24" amounts painted on the snowmap for the Edison area by the NWS or the 12-18" they had in their warnings in the text (no idea why the discrepancy) or the general 12-18" that most media outlets had for my area is a major bust. They were predicting 12-18" of snow, not 7.5" of snow and 3" of sleet. No argument. But my long-winded point, which most may not care about, is that getting 17.5" snow equivalent wouldn't be a bust at all if we standardized on snow/sleet mass and even if not, it's way less of a bust vs. the forecasts than a typical 8" snowfall would have been.
For me, while disappointed in the forecast and not getting all snow, it was still a helluva storm, with the most incredible 4" diameter snow aggregates I've ever seen and possibly the heaviest sleet I've ever seen, too. That and the howling winds and fascinating days of tracking all added up to a very fun ride.
Just got in from 2-2.5 hours of clearing. The wind blown flat places on the driveway measured around 10 inches, with drifting up to 2 feet, so hard to tell just how much we got. had snow/sleet the whole time.
Nope, there wasn't a joke in there. Gary Szatkowski was the chief meteorologist at NWS Mt. Holly for a number of years. It was Gary who initially sounded the alarm on Sandy. Great guy. He retired last year.
Is Leggets open?
Spent a snow day afternoon there a few years back. Im guessing they will get packed.Didn't appear to be around 1 but looking up the street there's cars in front now.
This is going to be a brutal cleanup for those of us in N NJ. Snow , sleet, and ice, and still going on. ugh.
Is it also still snowing there? :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:Still getting pounded in NW Morris County
Was no picnic in Metuchen or maybe I'm just getting old...
Just outside doing a shift of cleanup. Still coming down fairly hard in Western Morris county... Yardstick is reading between 17" and 20 from several of the low spots on the lawn, but that is including the 2" or so that was still on the ground from Fridays storm.Is it also still snowing there? :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
One last point: Gary got dinged pretty badly, though, for Mt. Holly's weak performance on Sandy, as they were very late with accurate storm surge predictions and their communications were very diffuse, not timely and difficult to decipher for the community. Bryan Norcross didn't criticize him by name, but he excoriated the org in a very well done post-mortem on Sandy.
Nope, there wasn't a joke in there. Gary Szatkowski was the chief meteorologist at NWS Mt. Holly for a number of years. It was Gary who initially sounded the alarm on Sandy. Great guy. He retired last year.
Looks like a bust for sure:
Spent a snow day afternoon there a few years back. Im guessing they will get packed.
Crabs Claw in Lavallette was the same. In the winter Lavallette had about 300 year round residents and it was like everyone was there on big storm days.Years ago after a 25+" snow my son and I went up for dinner. 2-3 deep all around the bars. Don't know where everyone came from.
I recommend the title of "The Official Next Snow Bust of 2017"Time to look ahead for the weekend. Maybe more snow! Time for a new thread
I recommend the title of "The Official Next Snow Bust of 2017"
Reverse psychology might land us a real blizzard.
Is it also still snowing there? :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye: