bac2therac said:

did 3 conferences land that many teams in the top 100 net last year...have to factor in conference consolidation and different landscape this year.

i think there is a less than 3% chance they win the games I just put out there.

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Well no.. but I think that's a factor in our favor. That's why our resume (again in the very unlikely scenario we actually win those games) will be stronger relative to the mid-major type teams that would usually be ahead of us with an 18-13 kind of record.

Er 15 is less than 16 so actually I only see two teams that played 16+ Q1 games.

fluoxetine said:

You keep saying this but we also don't have 18 wins now and absolutely no one disputes that we are miles and miles away from the bubble if the field is being selected today.

I mean quoting a Q1/2/3 winning percentage when 16 of the 25 are Q1 is kinda misleading. How many of your comps played 16 Q1 games? Looking back at pre conference tourney time from last year these are the teams that played 16+ Q1 games:
Houston 16
Marquette 15
Baylor 17

Those are the only ones I see, to be fair I am scrolling through by hand.

Yep this is why 3-4% is a small number.

Because it's more fun than endlessly debating why Pike sucks or why we don't have enough NIL (and also both things can be done at once). Do you ask the same questions about people who stay to the end of games when we have little to no chance to win?

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did 3 conferences land that many teams in the top 100 net last year...have to factor in conference consolidation and different landscape this year. There are at least 6 schools possibly more than have played 10 or more Q1 games currrently. 5-11 in Q1 isnt really a flex

i think there is a less than 3% chance they win the games I just put out there.

and yes these threads are just as bad as the other threads...its totally delusional thinking with no basis of reality..there are no receipts the OP has to say Rutgers is capable of this...the same stuff was posted last year I believe by the OP

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PhillyRU said:

Significantly better is pretty on point. On fairly similar usage Flagg is close to 12 points per 100 possessions better than Bailey. Flagg is one of the best passers in college basketball irrespective of position, gets to and converts at the free throw line at a tremendous rate and one of the sport’s premier defenders.

Ace Bailey does none of that, even if the shooting splits are comparable

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If you watch Duke a lot , you will notice how many times Cooper has no one on him at times and gets lost because defenders are running to defend the 3 point line. Earlier on , he was defended and struggled with turnovers. The last 4-5 games , I see no one defending him. The ACC has no defenders . Put Flagg in the SEC or BIG 10 and his numbers are reduced. ACE has a guy in his shorts the minute he touches the ball. Unlike Flagg , he doesn’t have a number of players that are killing it from 3 plus a rim runner that allows Flagg’s assist totals to be high when he is defended tightly which is rare. His 3 point shot is not better than ACE’s but his driving ability certainly is. I definitely think ACE should do more in the paint but Pike has him getting the ball in the 3 point corner or at the 3 point line on the wing instead of running puck and roll or pick and pop with him. It is hardly done. The teams play different competition with different defensive focus so it is hard to get a great read. Cooper is playing unreal the last 5-6 games but I am not sure that is due to his competition which has been dreadful in the ACC

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ruinac said:

No company that I've worked for ever found success by blaming the consumer for them not purchasing the product.

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You’ve never been conditioned to understand that college athletic fans have dual roles. We are investors as well as consumers. Any success that materializes is a reflection of our support, or lack thereof. Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State fans understand this very well, as does the Maryland fan who invested $10M in their basketball program. It’s time to pony up or shut up.

fluoxetine said:

18 wins does get us to the bubble and we still have a 3-4% chance. Obviously 3-4% is pretty low but we have all seen crazier things happen for example:
Rutgers up 70-60 at Minnesota on 3/2/23 with 1:15 remaining; estimated chance of loss 0.2%
Rutgers down 57-47 vs Purdue on 12/9/21 with 7:57 remaining; estimated chance of win 3.1%

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The past World Series as well. It was calculated the Dodgers had a 4% chance at winning that game before the 5th inning started.

JMORC2003 said:

Not to pile on but even the officially licensed stuff off Fanatics or Dicks is a crap shoot whether it'll be oddly shaped, true to size, shrink in the wash, cheap quality. Some of it is great, but a bunch of it is sub-par.

The tees in the CAC bookstore still have the 90s style tall block lettering. I thought maybe i'm just not looking in the right places.
People will pay for good quality stuff to represent RU proudly, not just throw on a scratchy t-shirt to wash the car.

I feel like it's easier to find weird novelty stuff than high quality, good looking gear. I don't need an all over print RU bucket hat or snuggie more than a good t-shirt.

I get served 50 ads a day for high-quality tees, half zips and pullovers for men and these are actually great products. Slap a block R on it and I'd gladly pay a premium price because I know it's good.

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my favorite Rutgers was one they gave out at the spring game almost 10 years ago...one i cut the sleeves off and the other just a regular...its not the best made but its got the simple block R and thats it...i think its a Gildan which I usually hate but for some reason this was one of the rare times it worked and has held up.

Otherwise almost all my tees come from homefield or retro brand because I love the soft tees.

bac2therac said:

the type of wins matter....18 in itself does nothing we have gone over this before

RU has no marquee wins right now. They have no non conference games.

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You keep saying this but we also don't have 18 wins now and absolutely no one disputes that we are miles and miles away from the bubble if the field is being selected today.

bac2therac said:

With all SEC/Big 10 schools in the top 100 and almost all the Big 12, alot of schools will have Q1 wins that are not deserving of a bid. Michigan State would have been a marquee win. Illinois and at Purdue and maybe at Oregon are only truly the only feather in the cap opportunities left. Beating Michigan at home is great because of their solid NET but its not going to be considered that big big win. Beating Iowa, Minnesota, and USC at home and Washington on the road do little to help the resume while losses would torpedo any chance.

So there are your 8 wins right there...your 3 losses would be at Northwestern, at Michigan, at Maryland.


so next 11.....Quad 1 4-3, Quad 2-0, Quad 3 2-0

overall 18-13
Quad 1: 5-11
Quad 2: 5-0
Quad 3: 2-2
Quad 4: 6-0
Quad 1/2/3: 12-13.....HUGE NEGATIVE TO BE BELOW 500 HERE TO ADD ON TO THE NEGATIVE OF NO OUT OF CONFERENCE WIN AND A HORRIFIC LOSS TO KENNESAW STATE

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I mean quoting a Q1/2/3 winning percentage when 16 of the 25 are Q1 is kinda misleading. How many of your comps played 16 Q1 games? Looking back at pre conference tourney time from last year these are the teams that played 16+ Q1 games:
Houston 16
Marquette 15
Baylor 17

Those are the only ones I see, to be fair I am scrolling through by hand.

bac2therac said:

you realize that RU would have to beat Illinois, Michigan, at Purdue and at Oregon for the 18-13 scenario to EVEN BE CONSIDERED AND NOT SCREW UP IN ANY OF THE LESSER GAMES

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Yep this is why 3-4% is a small number.

bac2therac said:

Why is the OP doing this to himself.

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Because it's more fun than endlessly debating why Pike sucks or why we don't have enough NIL (and also both things can be done at once). Do you ask the same questions about people who stay to the end of games when we have little to no chance to win?

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i'll bump the bar to 1.01 and we throw out Alabama. moves the number down to 11 out of 20.

Rutgers NJ said:

Sighted

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Near

goru7 said:

Cannot quibble with the Order and your reasoning but sticking RU at 17 when they should be ahead of Nebraska , not only because we beat them at their place but we haven’t been blown out like they have in 3 of their 6 losses. You could also argue we should be ahead of Penn State who is 3-7 in league. Yes a lot of close losses and they have played tough but if Dylan doesn’t get hurt , we sweep them.

Number of teams within 2-3 games of one another. The schedule for everybody has a ridiculously hard stretch of at least 3 in a row so anything can happen . I do think teams that have played and have an upward trajectory are Wisconsin , Ohio State , Maryland and UCLA. I was not overly impressed with Michigan State. We neutralized their big men and if our guards didn’t have such shitty games allowing Richardson to go off we likely win even without Dylan. Acuff , JMike and Jeremiah were close to horrendous Saturday not to mention Martini and PJ’s 0 point beauty.

Michigan and Illinois are not as bad ass as most thought and are showing real flaws. Purdue runs threw Smith. Need a guard that can harass him all game and Purdue will just be mediocre. Maryland and Wisconsin have the guards to do it.

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You have no idea what Rutgers would have done with a healthy Dylan. Yes Nebraska sucks right now. Michigan State played their D game vs Rutgers and only did enough to create seperation to win. Alot of schools have been dealing with flu and injuries. Lets see if Goldin is healthy on Saturday

Greene Rice FIG said:

I posted this before.

Games where our adjusted defensive efficiency were above 1.00
2023-2024 4
2022-2023 4
So far this season 12

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Greene Rice FIG said:

Looking at B1G games

mean adjusted def eff
1.018 this year and .9045 last year

Average adj eff
1.025 this year .923 last year

We are talking 7 points per game over 70 possessions.

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The broad point is correct, but I do want to point out that league average is going up:
Points per possession
2020 1.022
2021 1.022
2022 1.023
2023 1.041
2024 1.055
2025 1.065

More than 4 per 100 increase since 2020-22.

BUT I WANT TO KNOW IF THE OP IS IN OR NOT

UnderHooks said:

Walsh is pretty tall and as we know young. If he put on the right muscle he could eventually go up.

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I like the fact he is tall. Most of are wrestlers are shorter than their opponents. I am hoping Shane can stay at 184

newell138 said:

it seems to me the people who are getting so angry about Taylor Swift appearing on their TV for 5 seconds have deeper issues. The league is always trying to draw in more fans so showing her is satisfying the TS crowd who is tuning in to see her.
Some teams are more disciplined and have fewer penalties, this theory that the league is intentionally not calling penalties on them is another conspiracy theory.

Some people enjoy watching greatness. I always cheered for the Patriots (except when they were playing the Giants) same goes for Tiger Woods, i wanted to see him win every major he played in.

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newell138 said:

it seems to me the people who are getting so angry about Taylor Swift appearing on their TV for 5 seconds have deeper issues. The league is always trying to draw in more fans so showing her is satisfying the TS crowd who is tuning in to see her.
Some teams are more disciplined and have fewer penalties, this theory that the league is intentionally not calling penalties on them is another conspiracy theory.

Some people enjoy watching greatness. I always cheered for the Patriots (except when they were playing the Giants) same goes for Tiger Woods, i wanted to see him win every major he played in.

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The Taylor Swift story isn’t a big deal except that it gave fans who are inclined to not want the same team winning all of the time a reason to start disliking the Chiefs.

Until then, they had managed to do a lot of winning without their QB and/or coach getting themselves into the villain role, which is uncommon.

UnderHooks said:

Walsh is pretty tall and as we know young. If he put on the right muscle he could eventually go up.

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More muscle on that frame would be a nice 184 pounder.

fluoxetine said:

18 wins does get us to the bubble and we still have a 3-4% chance. Obviously 3-4% is pretty low but we have all seen crazier things happen for example:
Rutgers up 70-60 at Minnesota on 3/2/23 with 1:15 remaining; estimated chance of loss 0.2%
Rutgers down 57-47 vs Purdue on 12/9/21 with 7:57 remaining; estimated chance of win 3.1%

Click to expand...

the type of wins matter....18 in itself does nothing we have gone over this before

RU has no marquee wins right now. They have no non conference games. With all SEC/Big 10 schools in the top 100 and almost all the Big 12, alot of schools will have Q1 wins that are not deserving of a bid. Michigan State would have been a marquee win. Illinois and at Purdue and maybe at Oregon are only truly the only feather in the cap opportunities left. Beating Michigan at home is great because of their solid NET but its not going to be considered that big big win. Beating Iowa, Minnesota, and USC at home and Washington on the road do little to help the resume while losses would torpedo any chance.

So there are your 8 wins right there...your 3 losses would be at Northwestern, at Michigan, at Maryland.


so next 11.....Quad 1 4-3, Quad 2-0, Quad 3 2-0

overall 18-13
Quad 1: 5-11
Quad 2: 5-0
Quad 3: 2-2
Quad 4: 6-0
Quad 1/2/3: 12-13.....HUGE NEGATIVE TO BE BELOW 500 HERE TO ADD ON TO THE NEGATIVE OF NO OUT OF CONFERENCE WIN AND A HORRIFIC LOSS TO KENNESAW STATE

you realize that RU would have to beat Illinois, Michigan, at Purdue and at Oregon for the 18-13 scenario to EVEN BE CONSIDERED AND NOT SCREW UP IN ANY OF THE LESSER GAMES

Why is the OP doing this to himself.

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c_husk said:

I was at match and they didn't show Poz takedown on large screen. They didn't show any of the contested calls on large screen.g5

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They did show it on the screen but it was immediately after it happened. Most people were still looking at the mat and refs. My son pointed to the screen and I caught the last second of the replay. Most replays were not shown on the big screen, if any others at all.

cubuffsdoug said:

Why are they deferring money? Its not like the are paying Pete ridiculous money and they have to defer. Is this another attempt to take a dig at his value?

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They were hoping to replace Bobby Bonilla day with Pete Alonso day.

Greene Rice FIG said:

What are the odds of a player going 50-189 making 4 or more of their next 7 attempts?

Maybe I should ask Deepseek

Asked chatGPT and initially said less than 20% so i asked the same question asking the exact percentage and i got 8.64%, Not quite as improbable

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If we are assuming 50/189 is their "true" percentage then it is 8.477%.