Winter Pattern Update for the Philly-NJ-NYC area
Summary: Some light rain, mostly, on 1/18 then a light to maybe moderate snow threat (could be some rain early SE of 95) on 1/19-20 and a more significant threat possible for 1/22-23, plus we get a full arctic blast starting 1/20 and lasting for at least 4-5 days. Still fairly high uncertainty on the 1/19-20 event (5-6 days out) and very high uncertainty for 1/22-23, as would be expected 8-9 days out. The AmericanWx thread below has lots of discussion of these threats.
Details: For the potential event on 1/19-20, the best guess at this range is a minor, 1-2" snowfall for most (with less, due to rain, possibly, towards the coast), but a 2-4" event is certainly possible, but so is a complete whiff, as the Euro/UK show about 1-2", the ICON shows 2-4", the CMC shows 1/2-1" and the GFS is a whiff. Still much can change though at this range.
For the potential 1/22-23 event, uncertainty is far higher, as today's 12Z model runs ranged from a significant snow/ice storm for the SE US (CMC) to a significant snowstorm for the SE/Mid-Atlantic (GFS) to significant snowstorm for our area (Euro), plus the ensembles are showing some storms and some misses. At 8-9 days out I wouldn't even hazard a guess as to what will happen, but the point is that there's some heightened potential for a winter storm vs. baseline expectations.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...-22-focused-inauguration-day-and-21st/page/8/
