Week 3 of Bacatology
31 AQs indictate by asterik *
37 at large bids. I am locking in schools all the way down to the Gonzaga on the 9 seed line.
That takes cares of 27 at larges leaving only 10 open and 23 schools competing for them
ONE SEEDS: Auburn*, Duke*, Houston*, Tennessee
TWO SEEDS: Alabama, Florida, Michigan State*, St John's*
THREE SEEDS: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Iowa State
FOUR SEEDS: Purdue, Michigan, Texas Tech, Missouri
FIVE SEEDS: Arizona, Maryland, Marquette, Clemson
SIX SEEDS: Saint Mary's*, Oregon, Illinois, Mississippi
SEVEN SEEDS: Kansas, Louisville, UCLA, Mississippi State
EIGHT SEEDS: Memphis*, Vanderbilt, BYU, UConn
NINE SEEDS: Creighton, Gonzaga, New Mexico*, Utah State
TEN SEEDS: San Diego State, VCU* West Virginia, Georgia
ELEVEN SEEDS: Nebraska, Baylor, Oklahoma/Ohio State, Indiana/Arkansas
TWELVE SEEDS: UC San Diego*, Drake*, McNeese State*, Yale*
THIRTEEN SEEDS: Akron*, High Point*, Lipscomb*, Jacksonville State*
FOURTEEN SEEDS: Utah Valley State*, Chatanooga*, Northern Colorado*, South Alabama*
FIFTEEN SEEDS: Towson*, Robert Morris*, Central Connecticut State*, Norfolk State*
SIXTEEN SEEDS: Bryant*, Quinnipiac*, Omaha*/Southern*/, SE Missouri*/Bucknell*
LAST 4 IN: OHIO STATE, ARKANSAS, INDIANA, OKLAHOMA
FIRST 4 OUT: XAVIER, BOISE STATE, TEXAS, NORTH CAROLINA
NEXT 4 OUT: CINCINNATI, SMU, TCU, VILLANOVA
NEXT 5: NORTHWESTERN, WAKE FOREST, COLORADO STATE, UTAH, DAYTON
SEC: 13
Big 10: 11
Big 12: 8
Big East: 4
BACC: 3
MWC: 3
WCC: 2
IN
(38) UTAH STATE 23-6: Aggies still have not been able to find that win to lock them. Two straight losses to Boise St/Colorado State are not bad losses but they were both by double digits and you can hear footsteps as those two schools trying to make a late tourney push. MWC was thought of as a 3 bid league by most after a disastrous NCAA tourney history in recent years. USU is still in very good position and above the bubble fray. Just 3-3 in Q1 but includes very good road wins at St Mary's and San Diego State. Excellent Q1/2 mark of 10-6 includes wins over Boise and San Diego State as well as solid wins over Iowa, North Texas, Colorado State. Currently solid with SOR/WAB at 36/34. It's all about avoiding a horrible loss to 4-25 Air Force. That would be a Q4 loss and that would knock them to the last 4 in line. They wouldnt want to f around and find out.
(50) SAN DIEGO STATE 19-7: Aztecs have been dogged by some funky overall NET metrics yet show some really good wins here. Their golden ticket victory over projected top seed Houston in Vegas is worth 2-3 wins. They also beat Creighton there and won at Boise State making up part of their 4-5 Q1 mark. Q2 is a strong 4-1 with quality wins over Big West AQ UCSanDiego and New Mexico. Note another win over Boise who they swept and a split with Colorado State. There is one blemish a Q3 home loss to UNLV that will likely be overlooked. Non conference SOS of 7 is incredible. WAN/SOR strong at 38/36. Tricky game at UNLV awaits followed by a home game vs Nevada so its about navigating those games where 2 locks them in, a split perhaps keeps them close but above the last 4 in and 2 losses puts them in peril.
(48) WEST VIRGINIA 17-12: Some really good wins here in that 5-10 Q1 mark....Gonzaga and Arizona on neutral courts, at Kansas, Iowa State plus at bubble Cincy. That makes 5 high level Q1 wins. Problem is not much after that in Q2 besides a home win over Cincy. Too many losses to the likes of Pitt, Arizona State and Kansas State bring down the profile. Still 9-12 in Q1/2 shows they do not have a true bad loss and they are .500 at 12-12 in Q1/23 games. SOS of 12/59 is very good and both SOR/WAB at 40 does not raise concerns. While the Mountaineers are starting to creep into that bulky loss territory where 17-14 would put their bid in jeopardy, its likely a split of last 2 of at Utah and home to UCF should put them in the field although would not rule out a first four appearance in that scenario.
(33) GEORGIA 18-11: No schools had a better week on the bubble than the Bulldogs. Started with a signature Q1 home win over Florida and ended with a needed Q1 win easy road win at Texas in a gigantic bubble matchup game. Overall NET has soared to 33 and is backed up by SOR/WAB at 37/33. Sure the 4-11 mark shows alot of losses but also shows that they have not lost outside Q1. In addition to the wins noted above remember they have a win over surging St Johns that keeps looking better and better by the day plus a home win over Kentucky. A Q2 win over bubble Oklahoma is nice to have in their back pocket as well. Only 7-11 in Q1/2 and 10-11 in Q1/2/3 so for them its about avoiding an 0-2 finish that will drag their numbers down. Can they avoid the landmine at South Carolina because if they don't a win over surging Vanderbilt will be mandatory.
(57) NEBRASKA 17-12: Now the worst rated NET at large team, not sure any bubble in school has damaged their profile as much as the Huskers have the last few weeks. 4 losses in 5 games with 2 of them vs the likes of mediocrity like Penn State and Saturday's home loss to Minnesota have moved them from a solid 8/9 line to playing their way out of the tourney. The good news is they still have some decent metrics...5-9 in Q1 and 9-10 in Q2. Highlighted by high level Q1 road wins at Oregon and Creighton. There are additional wins vs the field over UCLA and Illinois and the 2 just in the field fellow Big 10 bubbles Indiana and Ohio State. That is a pretty good run of wins. However a big negative is that the Minny lost now gives them 2 Q3 losses as USC has slipped into that catagory and a danger is a home loss to Rutgers is sitting precariously in Q2 for now with RU at 72. A potential 3 Q3 losses would not be a good look. The SOR/WAB have slipped to a red flag level 55/52. Up next is a gigantic bubble loser out for now game at Ohio State. A win does not necessarily make them safe given a home game left with Iowa but its almost mandatory they get it. Getting a feeling that when all is said and done, Nebby is either going to be out or playing in the first four.
(32) BAYLOR 16-12: The Bears took care of business over Oklahoma State breaking a 3 game losing skid but remain in a shaky spot just 4 games above 500. How much juice can they squeeze out of that one point win over St John's on a neutral court. Beyond that they just have not won enough in Big 12 play. There is a win over Kansas and WVU at home. The win over barely in Arkansas gives them just 4 wins vs the projected field. Not an impressive number for a school with such a bulky loss total. 5-10 in Q1 and 3-2 in Q1/2 puts them at 8-12 in Q1/2 and 11-12 in Q1/2/3. They did play a very tough schedule at 5/14 and WAB/SOR are positive at 39. Two games left and its tough...at bubble TCU and home to Houston. No way are they dancing if they go 0-2. A win at TCU will likely stabilize their positioning although a slip into first four games is possible. Beating Houston makes them at mortal lock but are they capable of it. Lets see if the committee considers the injury to their center who is now out for the year and how the Bears are 2-4 since.
(53) OKLAHOMA 17-12: Sooners will certainly test the selection committees edict that conference record is not considered. Now down to a woeful 4-12 in SEC play after two soul crushing last minute losses to Kentucky and at Ole Miss. All in all that makes 7 losses in last 8 and yeah how you finish is not considered but all the losing has damaged their profile. 5-10 in Q1 and most of their success came from an outstanding 13-0 non conference performance with wins over Michigan, Arizona and Louisville. Not many schools have such a fine trio of OOC wins. There are 3 additional wins vs the field...Mississippi State and Vandy at home and Arkansas on the road. 8-11 in Q1/2 is solid enough but 10-12 on Q1/2/3 is wobbly. Problem is that win at Arky is their only road win standing at 1-7. Big big red flag their given their suddenly bulky loss total. SOR/WAB are just above the cut line at 47/42. Mizzou at home is next followed by a trip to fading bubble Texas. Not saying they have to win both to stay in the field but if they win both they are a stone cold lock. Two losses and they are out and not confident that the committee will be looking at SEC tourney play beyond the first couple of rounds. Split and its dicey but lean toward in...might be better off to win at Texas to get an extra road win
(55) INDIANA 18-11: Hooisers took care of 2 Big 10 bottom feeders last week and their rising profile is more about not doing anything wrong than cobbling together an impressive resume. Truth to be told, the quality wins are thin here. Just 4-11 in Q1 but only 3 vs tourney schools. Of course winning on the road at Michigan State is worth more than one win and there is the win over Purdue and a win at last team in Ohio State. Just 3 wins vs the field. 4-0 gets them to a solid 8-11 in Q1/2 but none of those wins move any needle. 6-0 in Q3 though could be an ace in hole putting their Q1/2/3 mark at 14-11 which is above most of the bubble around them. Note all 11 losses are in Q1. WAB/SOR just above the cut line for now at 46/43. A trip to Oregon followed by a super duper double bubble finale at home vs Ohio State. Another Quad 1 road win over Oregon likely is going to put them in the field regardless of what happens vs OSU. If they do not get that, a win over Ohio State looks mandatory to stay in the field although I suppose the Big 10 tourney early rounds could offer a win on the margins to be considered.
(47) ARKANSAS 17-12: Just when the Razorbacks were looking good following a needed road win at Texas, Calipari's crew crashed and burned getting destroyed at last place South Carolina. While its true the loss counts as just a Quad 2 it is a really bad loss moreso because it leaves them at an awful 6-12 in Q1/2 games. 4-9 in Q1 shows wins high level wins over at Kentucky and Mizzou and OOC over Michigan. There are 2 home wins over Georgia/Oklahoma so that gives them a solid 5 wins vs the field. But do note not only did they lose to SC but also to LSU the 2 worst SEC schools. Q1/2/3 mark at 10-12 is borderline as is the SOR/WAB of 49/44. Not an easy finish either....at Vanderbilt and home to Mississippi State. Lose both and they are out for now. Win both and they dance. A split and they likely sit in this same spot which is dangerous given potential bid stealers and schools currently out of the field trying to play their way in.
(36) OHIO STATE 16-13: Buckeyes hanging by a thread as that bulky loss total putting them just 3 games above 500 is dampening their profile. The 5-9 in Quad 1 is solid showing high level wins at Purdue, Maryland and a key non conference win over Kentucky but that Q1 neutral site win over Texas is no longer vs a team projected in the field. The Buckeyes have just those 3 wins vs the field and a lot of losses. Lost both games to Big 10 bubbles Nebraska and Indiana. The Q1/2 mark is 9-13 shows no real bad losses but the Q1/2/3 is 3 games below 500 at 10-13. SOS is a plus at 16/21 but the SOR/WAB at 52/49 accurately reflects their postioning right at the cut line. Big finish with big bubble matchups, first home to Nebraska and then at Indiana. Win both and they are going to play their way into the field at 18-13 and 7 Quad 1 wins no question. Lose both and they will need to win the Big 10 tourney. A split is going to really test the committee over how they want to consider a possible 18-14/17-15 school. Its one of the cases where a first round Big 10 win will count for something as the Buckeyes do not have the overwhelming profile to get in at 17-15.
OUT
(49) XAVIER 19-10: The Muskateers have slowly churned their way right to the cut line. Big win over Creighton gave them just their 3rd win vs a school projected in the field. It was just a Q2 win and the Q1 number is butt ugly at 1-9 highlighted by a road win at Marquette. Its the 6-1 in Q2 with the win over UConn and bubbles Nova and Wake that boost their chances and then the 5-0 in Q3 that puts them 12-10 on Q1/2/3. So close for them they are likely rueing that Q2 road loss at Georgetown. Also a Q1 road loss at TCU must be noted. SOR/WAB: 43/48 puts them right there. A finish at Butler and Providence would put them at 21-10 and 14-10 in Q1/2/3 and given those bulky loss totals from the SEC/Big 10 bubbles, their profile provides the committee with a solid alternative with a clean resume.
(43) BOISE STATE 20-8: The Broncos were dangerously close to a stunning Quad 4 loss at Fresno State over the weekend that would have ended their NCAA at large hopes. Still it is survive and advance and the rousing win over Utah State earlier in the week stamped them as a legit at large contender. First the good....3-5 in Quad 1 with 2 very very strong out conference wins neutral site St Marys and Clemson at home. 4-1 in Q2 shows home wins over New Mexico and Utah State...4 wins vs the field. Ultimately though the issue to overcome is 2 Q3 losses which is one too many to vault them into the field right now....Washington State not so bad but losing to Boston College is inexcusable. Do note that 9 of their 20 wins are in Q4. SOR/WAB says out at 54/53. Need to win at Air Force and then the Q2 bubble matchup at home vs Colorado State. Not sure the MWC can ultimately get a 4th team in so Boise might have to hope for an implosion from a Mountain West bubble school ahead of them in the pecking order. Always a discussion over whether the committee will have their minds made up before conference play begins so any deviation likely starts with the Mountain West. Yet the Broncs have already proved that they can play with the best in the league and are legit MVC tourney title contenders.
(46) TEXAS 16-13: Longhorns are the classic case of a school playing themselves out of the field even before we get to Selection Sunday. Losers of 6 of their last 7, they now sit with 13 losses just 3 games above 500. It is a shame because there are 3 great wins amongst the 4-9 Q1 mark...Missouri, Kentucky and Texas A&M. Besides a road win at Oklahoma, their performance against the middle of the pack of SEC has been dreadful and they also have a loss to last place South Carolina. If the overtime loss at Arkansas did not signal their demise, the non competive loss at home to Georgia in a bubble buster game on Saturday seemed to. A horrid 6-13 in Q1/2 and weak 9-13 in Q1/2/3. Non conference sos poor at 290 and the SOR/WAB at 60/58 have them under water. Now in must win mode for last 2 at Mississippi State and Oklahoma. A split will be sending them to Vegas in the Crown tourney.
(42) NORTH CAROLINA 19-11: Tar Heels can do nothing but take care of business and wait for their all in and all the marbles game with Duke this weekend. Heels have been in this situation before a couple times and one time they played their way and one time they played their way out. You know Bubba on the committee is going to fight mighty hard to get a 4th ACC school in the field and UNC appears to be the best option. The Duke game would push them over the edge. Truthfully the 1-10 Q1 mark is just atrocious. Yes UNC played the 5th best non conference schedule in the country but this was a case of biting off more than they could chew. Losses to Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Michigan State and Kansas. They did manage to beat UCLA at MSG for not only their lone Q1 win but their lone win vs a team in the field. 5-0 in Q2 at least puts them at 6-10. Does include wins over SMU and Dayton. Q3 is 7-1 which is strong but does include that unfortunate last second lost at home to Stanford. SOR/WAB at 42/45 so I am convinced wins at Va Tech and Duke will be enough. Can they do it though?
(40) CINCINNATI 17-12: Bearcats were never really close in their last shot for a signature win at Houston. The 1-10 Quad 1 record speaks for itself with the best win being BYU and losses to Nova and Utah. Q2 definitely makes things interesting because they are an awesome 9-2 there that puts them at at pretty good 10-12 in Q1/2. Yet there is just one other win vs the field...barely in Baylor. Good wins vs bubbles Xavier, Dayton, TCU are plusses but it reads more like a NIT than NCAA resume. Note the Q3 is just 11-12 which is okay but not a plus. SOR/WAB at 51/56 put them out. Last 2 do not offer substantial opportunities to make their case...Q3 game vs KSU and Q2 at Okie State. If they get both they will be on the board for consideration and of course you have any weight given to Big 12 tourney play. It just seems they will fall short given better options.
(41) SMU 21-8: Mustangs failed to pick up a Q2 road win at Stanford over the weekend. Even a win there would not have solved their biggest issue which is the 0-5 Q1 mark. Throw in a Q2 loss to Wake and SMU is 0-5 vs the top 5 in the ACC. 5-3 in Quad 2 get them to a medicore 5-8 in Q1/2. How is this possible from a supposed Power 5 conference? Even the wins there show all of them are lower half Q2 wins. Best win is fading Pitt. Yes no losses outside Q1/2 is a plus as is the fine 7-3 road mark. Q3 is where they make their living as much of the horrid ACC resides there...a perfect 11-0 which still is impressive. They beat the teams that barely have pulses. 16 wins coming from Q3/4 alone. Will 16-8 in Q1/2/3 impress the committee? Will they desperately need to get a 4th from the ACC if UNC fails to take down Duke? SOR/WAB of 48/57 isnt a good spot and that non conference blank slate with a sos there of 272 will not help matters. Quad 3 home game with Syracuse and Q2 road trip to Florida State are mandatory if they want to still be seriously considered.
(70) TCU 16-13: Frogs are still croaking and I will tell you why. Some good wins here and no true bad loss outside Q2 once you dig deep. 4-9 in Quad 1 highlighted by wins over Texas Tech, BYU and at Baylor. Quad 2 is just 2-4 but important wins over West Virginia and Xavier. So they have 4 wins vs the field. Perhaps one too many losses to the likes of Utah, Santa Clara and UCF. The bulky loss total and overall poor NET leaves zero margin for error. 6-13 vs Q1/2 is not good at all. 5-0 in Q3 brings it to a manageable 11-13 in those 3 quads. Now if they can get their last 2 of Baylor and at Colorado, the Frogs will have positioned themselves to be right near the cut line and honestly their profile will be similar to the SEC and Big 10 bubbles. Current red flags of 2-8 on the road and SOE/WAB of 57/55 would improve. Interesting case with high upside.
(51) VILLANOVA 18-12: Cats keep hanging around the last 5th to 8 out grouping but not sure they are a serious at large threat. Just 2-6 in Quad 1 but those wins very strong over St Johns and Marquette. Quad 2 is only 4-3 but there are wins over UConn and bubble Cincy and Xavier (who they split with). Ultimately though it was their poor non conference peformance which put them in a deep hole before Big East tourney play begin. Q2 loss to St Joes, Q3 loss and most damaging of all the Q4 loss to lowly Columbia. Its likely that loss that is/will keep Nova out of the field. The Virginia loss is trending to Q2 but there is an additional Q3 loss to Georgetown as well. Too many losses not enough wins. 6-9 in Q1/2 and while 12-11 in Q1/2/3 isnt awful, it is when you take into consideration the Columbia loss and no wins vs the field OOC. The SOR/WAB of 61/65 says alot. One game left Q2 at Georgetown will not move any needles. On their best day, Nova can play with anyone in the Big East so keep them in the back of your mind as a potential bid stealer.
(54) NORTHWESTERN 16-13: Wildcats somehow still in the running despite not passing any eye tests for quite some time now. Just 3-9 in Quad 1 highlighted by wins over Maryland and Illinois plus a road win at Ohio State. Quad 2 is just 4-3 but a win over Indiana thrown in there. 7-13 in Q1/2 just shows one too many losses to the likes of Rutgers, Butler and Washington. True no loss outside Q2 but their non conference sos was poor at 306. SOR/WAB are not workable currently at 67/66 as is the 2-8 road mark. Their whole hopes rest with knocking off UCLA and winning at Maryland to complete the season sweep. Getting 2 more Q1 wins will really boost their metrics across the board, get them to 13-13 in Q1/2/3 and put them comparable to the SEC/Big 10 bubbles well ahead of them right now in the bubble pecking order. A definitive longshot to get there though.
(69) WAKE FOREST 20-9: My least favorite team on this list because despite them crapping the bed of late, this is the kind of profile from the ACC that selection committee somehow adores..see Notre Dame, Pitt and Virginia in recent years. Light on any quality wins or against the field but just enough in Q1/2/3 to drag them across the finish line to make sure the ACC gets an extra bid. Usually its for their 5th bid, this year its for their 4th and while UNC is the team in waiting, I fear that the Demon Deacons will try to get an unwarranted push in. Wake rallied to avoid a Q3 home loss to Notre Dame over the weekend on the heels of suffering back to back Quad 3 losses to Virginia and North Carolina State. Just 2-6 in Quad 1 win the win over Michigan as their only win vs the field. Also a win over SMU there and a win over UNC on Q2 where they are 5-0 to bring their Q1/2 mark to 7-6. I know 14-9 in Q1/2/3 is not bad for a supposed major conference school but 3 Q3 losses should be a non starter here. Tough to get over the fact that 13 of 20 wins are coming from Q3/4. Yet the SOR/WAB at 41/46 seems very willing for some reason. I suppose tonights game at Duke is for all the marbles. A win here and Wake likley glides up into the field. A Quad 3 game remains vs Ga Tech and I suppose without the Duke win, a win there at least keeps them hovering somewhere on the outside of the bubble.
(58) COLORADO STATE 20-9: Rams making a late push but the harsh reality is that they are well behind the 4 other Mountain West schools in the pecking order. This despite the fact that CSU has taken over sole possession of 2nd place. While they have performed in league, OOC they didnt get the needed wins with only the TCU one of note with losses to Ole Miss, VCU, Colorado, and Q3 Washington. In additonal a critical 2nd Q3 loss to Cal Riverside might be the biggest dagger on their resume. Just 1-5 in Q1 and that is a low end meaningless road win at middling Nevada. A more encouraging 6-2 in Q2 shows wins over Utah State, Boise, San Diego State. 7-7 is okay but again the 2 losses in Q3 hurt. Another shot at a quality win at Boise awaits which could cement the 2nd seed in the MVC tourney. But this is the NCAA tourney not the MVC tourney. Not enough flesh here given the 2 Quad 3 losses.
(64) UTAH 16-13: Utes lights are flickering and I suppose with a home game vs WVU and a trip to BYU if they win both, they could get some consideration. Numbers are currently ugly. 3-9 in Q1 and unmanagable 5-13 in Q2. No bad losses and there are wins vs Kansas and BYU plus bubbles TCU and Cincy. Q1/2/3 is just 8-13..alot of losing and half of their wins are in Q4 and their non conference sos of 257 sticks out. Also sticking out is the 1-8 road mark. A resume of full of red flags.
(69) DAYTON 19-9: Flyers barely alive after a two overtime tussle at home with Quad 4 Richmond. Just not enough here at 2-4 in Q1 and 3-4 in Q2. Yes the wins over Marquette and UConn are very good but Dayton didnt follow it up with anything else and of course not many opportunities in a rather medicore league like the A10. In Q2 there is a win over distant bubble Northwestern but too many losses to the likes of St Bonnies, Loyola and GW and a bad Q3 loss to UMass. There are some years where you just feel that the A10 will send an at large beyond the regular season winner, this year isnt one of them. Dayton does have a game left at VCU so that would boost their profile somewhat but it does not look to be nearly enough. Need to win the A10 tourney which has a history of craziness.
(52) SANTA CLARA 20-11 and (62) SAN FRANCISCO 22-8 both have no serious at large chances as they enter WCC tourney play.
