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OT: 2024 Atlantic Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC Say Very Active Season; Rafael to Weaken to a TS before coming close to the Northern GOM
- By RU848789
- Rutgers Football
- 553 Replies
We now have Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 (Future Sara) in the Caribbean and the initial NHC forecast has Sara becoming a strong TS in a few days as it slowly skirts the northern coast of Honduras, which, sadly, is likely to result in catastrophic flooding and mudslides from 15-30" of rain (even if the storm doesn't become a hurricane). If the track stays offshore, the NHC thinks the storm could strengthen into a hurricane (some models have a Cat 2/3), but if it makes landfall or stays very close to Honduras, the storm likely remains a TS until it curves NW and likely makes another landfall along the Yucatan in about 5 days, which is the end of the NHC forecast period.
Beyond that the uncertainty is very high as there are models that have it recurve towards the FL Gulf Coast and/or Cuba and there are also models that have it largely dissipate in Mexico or perhaps emerge into the western GOM as a weak TS or remnant with a very uncertain future. Based on climatology, it's unlikely that a hurricane will strike the US anywhere in November as only 3 have done that in recorded history, but this year, the near record GOM water temps would clearly support development of a hurricane - the bigger question might be whether we'd see the kind of shear that ripped Rafael apart before it could reach the US Gulf Coast. Too early to know, which is why this system needs to be watched closely, especially for those on the FL Gulf Coast and SW Keys.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/023539.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...estern-caribbean-possible-tropical-storm-sara
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 16.1N 80.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/1200Z 16.1N 82.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 15/0000Z 16.2N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 16/0000Z 16.2N 85.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 17/0000Z 15.9N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 18/0000Z 16.6N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 19.3N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
Beyond that the uncertainty is very high as there are models that have it recurve towards the FL Gulf Coast and/or Cuba and there are also models that have it largely dissipate in Mexico or perhaps emerge into the western GOM as a weak TS or remnant with a very uncertain future. Based on climatology, it's unlikely that a hurricane will strike the US anywhere in November as only 3 have done that in recorded history, but this year, the near record GOM water temps would clearly support development of a hurricane - the bigger question might be whether we'd see the kind of shear that ripped Rafael apart before it could reach the US Gulf Coast. Too early to know, which is why this system needs to be watched closely, especially for those on the FL Gulf Coast and SW Keys.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/023539.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...estern-caribbean-possible-tropical-storm-sara
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 16.1N 80.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/1200Z 16.1N 82.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 15/0000Z 16.2N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 16/0000Z 16.2N 85.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 17/0000Z 15.9N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 18/0000Z 16.6N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 19.3N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
