Dayton's got a fair chance at an at-large if they don't get the A10 autobid if things break right for them.
If the Bonnie's finish 25-6, though, I can't see any way they are in without an auto-bid. They only have 2 more Q1/Q2 games left and have only one loss so far. They are also favored in all of their remaining games but one. If they drop 5 more games, that'd be at least 3 Q3/Q4 losses on their resume as well as the related metrics hit from losing to several teams lower than them in NET.... and if their other two losses are Dayton and @VCU, it would mean no Q1 wins to balance them (0-2 Q1, 3-1 Q2). If they take care of business against everyone by Dayton and VCU, and finish 28-3, it'd be hard to keep them out.... but last year, Indiana St got left out at 26-5 (1-3 Q1, 4-1 Q2) with one bad Q4 loss at home.