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OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- By mdk01
- Rutgers Football
- 33388 Replies
Jim Rickards called election perfect - down to the seats.
He's calling for recession and suffering like in Reagan's first 2 years and then good days like Reagan eventually had. A lot of people have happy recollections of the 80s but forget the 81-82 gut punch needed to get back to center.
First up - 1) market crash (he explains details) then 2) recession and 3) currency wars
Pertaining to stocks:
1. Stock Market
Markets are at or near all-time highs based on every available metric: P/E ratios, the CAPE ratio, market cap/GDP ratio, concentration risk, etc. This stock market bubble is amplified by indexing, investor complacency and analyst euphoria. When such conditions have existed in the past, they have always been followed by market crashes of 50% to 90% unfolding over several years. Examples include the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1929), the Nikkei (1989), NASDAQ (2000), and the S&P 500 Index (2008).
We are now positioned for an historic crash. The specific cause does not matter – it could be war, natural disaster, a bank or hedge fund collapse or other unexpected event. What matters is the super-fragility of the market when the trigger is pulled. This is why Warren Buffett has over $300 billion in cash and why central banks are buying gold.
Investors should prepare now; don’t be the last one to know. Strategies include reducing allocations to stocks, increasing allocations to cash and purchasing some gold (up to 10% of your investable assets) to participate in a flight to quality.
Rickards: A US Recession Is Coming | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zerowww.zerohedge.com
In the last few weeks 40,000 LA acres are rubble, AI turned into a pumpkin and China tried to slick a coup in S Korea (hardly any coverage). Foundation cracks everywhere
Rickards
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Rickards
Reagan's first 2 years came after 8-10 years of down markets, since at least the oil shock of '73-74 and the subsequent stagflation. I don't see oil tripling and interest rates hitting 15% so the situations are not analogous.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- By drewbagel423
- Rutgers Football
- 33388 Replies
Well that's goddamn terrifyingJim Rickards called election perfect - down to the seats.
He's calling for recession and suffering like in Reagan's first 2 years and then good days like Reagan eventually had. A lot of people have happy recollections of the 80s but forget the 81-82 gut punch needed to get back to center.
First up - 1) market crash (he explains details) then 2) recession and 3) currency wars
Pertaining to stocks:
1. Stock Market
Markets are at or near all-time highs based on every available metric: P/E ratios, the CAPE ratio, market cap/GDP ratio, concentration risk, etc. This stock market bubble is amplified by indexing, investor complacency and analyst euphoria. When such conditions have existed in the past, they have always been followed by market crashes of 50% to 90% unfolding over several years. Examples include the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1929), the Nikkei (1989), NASDAQ (2000), and the S&P 500 Index (2008).
We are now positioned for an historic crash. The specific cause does not matter – it could be war, natural disaster, a bank or hedge fund collapse or other unexpected event. What matters is the super-fragility of the market when the trigger is pulled. This is why Warren Buffett has over $300 billion in cash and why central banks are buying gold.
Investors should prepare now; don’t be the last one to know. Strategies include reducing allocations to stocks, increasing allocations to cash and purchasing some gold (up to 10% of your investable assets) to participate in a flight to quality.
Rickards: A US Recession Is Coming | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
In the last few weeks 40,000 LA acres are rubble, AI turned into a pumpkin and China tried to slick a coup in S Korea (hardly any coverage). Foundation cracks everywhere
Rickards
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Rickards