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OT: Minor Snowfall for Most (except moderate N of 80 towards 84 w/some icing) Sat (2/15) pm, Followed by Heavy Rain for Everyone
- By RU848789
- Rutgers Football
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The NWS has increased snowfall amounts to 1-2" starting from a line from about Trenton to Keyport to about 78 and increased snowfall amounts to 2-4" north of 78 to 80 (and NW of 287), generally speaking, as per the discussion below, but still waiting for the updated snowfall map; NWS-NYC did update their map with 1-2" for the southern half of NYC/LI and 2-3" for NENJ (Union up to Bergen), northern NYC/LI, but waiting on the regional map before posting any maps. Will post an updated map when available. Areas N of 80 and especially up towards 84 could get 1/4" of ice accretion on top of several inches of snow and much less rain (but should still get some), as temps will stay colder up there.
Edit - NWS map finally updated showing the snowfall increases across the board.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
336 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
To start the day Saturday, a large area of low pressure will be
centered near Oklahoma with the system`s warm front extending well
north and east into Indiana and Kentucky. As the warm front
approaches, expect clouds to quickly lower and thicken with
precipitation developing over the area west to east most likely
through the early to mid afternoon timeframe. This is a slightly
later onset than previous thinking as it will take some time for dry
air in the low levels to become saturated enough for precip. While
the inland track of the low will ultimately put the area on the
system`s warm side, indications are there will be enough cold air at
the onset for a front end "thump" of snow that could affect areas
even as far south as the I-95 corridor. As such, expect that the
urban corridor will see precipitation start as snow Saturday
afternoon with the potential for an inch or two of accumulation
before a change to rain occurs here from south to north through the
late afternoon into the evening. Farther north, there will be
greater concerns for wintry precip lasting further into Saturday
night. Getting up towards the I-78 corridor, expect snow to mix with
and change to sleet and freezing rain into Saturday evening with the
potential for several hours of a wintry mix before an eventual
change to rain. It is this zone and areas northward where 2 to 4
inches of snow and sleet is expected with the potential for a tenth
to a quarter in of ice accretion to follow.
Heading into Sunday, all areas should become rain with rain becoming
more showery in nature as much of the area gets into the system`s
warm sector. This will allow highs to get into the 50s to even some
low 60s across southern parts of the forecast area while our far
northern zones (southern Poconos and NW NJ) will only see highs in
the upper 30s to low 40s.
NWS updated their forecast snowfall map and nudged accumulations up a bit across the board vs. 4 pm yesterday, with the 1" line now being from about Philly to Belmar, the 2" line being from about New Hope to Perth Amboy and 2-4" from that line to just north of 80 and a bit more north of 80, where there is the risk of 0.1-0.2" of freezing rain before the changeover to rain early on Sunday up there.
Everyone in the region will change over to rain with most of our area that gets 1" or more of snow (south of 80) changing over by early/mid-evening - about 1-1.5" of much needed rain is expected through Sunday afternoon, as per the map below, which should wash away any snow from this storm, especially with temps making it into the 50s by Sunday at noon south of 276/195 and into the 40s north of there up to 84.
Note that travel conditions will likely be challenging N of 78 Sat afternoon/evening with temps in the 30-32F range, while travel conditions south of 78 likely won't be that bad with temps 32-34F, which should limit accumulations to colder surfaces except during periods of heavier snowfall. This is also why I'm not particularly bullish on the snow for this storm: the NWS forecasts 2.5" of snow for Metuchen, but I'll be surprised to make it to even 2".
https://www.weather.gov/phi
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