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Minor to Moderate Snow Tues Night (2/11)/Weds Morning, especially south of 80 (all snow)
- By RU848789
- Rutgers Football
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No significant modeling or forecast change for wave 1, this evening through Thursday sunrise, as per the updated snowfall map below; the 1" and 2" lines were nudged northward maybe 5 miles each vs. yesterday, while the 4" and 6" lines were nudged a few miles south. No change in the advisories (2-5" for Mercer/Monmouth and south of there in NJ and for 2-4" for SE PA from Lower Bucks SE to DE) or warnings (4-7" for Cumberland, Atlantic and Cape May). This will be all snow (and a dry, fluffy snow with likely somewhat high snow ratios of 1.2-1.3" snow per inch of liquid) for the event for everyone with temps <32F (and the snow falling at night) so every flake will accumulate on all untreated surfaces and slippery driving conditions will result through the Weds am rush hour even for areas that only get 1" or so.
This is a difficult forecast for northern areas especially for areas along/N of 78 as this area is the battleground between dry/cold air to the north and the moisture/snow from the storm well off the coast and is the area most prone to busting low or high - we're between the HRRR which shows very little snow north of 276/195 and the NAM/NAM3K which show a bit more snow than the NWS maps, with most recent 6Z and 0Z models showing snowfall amounts similar or maybe a bit less than the NWS maps. Will definitely be a radar-watching event there and even south of there to a line from Philly to Trenton to Sandy Hook (the 3" line), which is where the heavier snows start with 3" or more. The excerpt below from the NWS discussion is why they're on the slightly bullish side even for northern areas:
Plenty of large scale forcing will result in an expanding precipitation shield late Wednesday and especially during Wednesday night. A strengthening low-level jet will also enhance the lift for a time Wednesday night.
https://www.weather.gov/phi
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...ads-for-each-will-be-added-as-needed/page/22/
Minor NWS-Philly update, although to be honest I can't see any differences in the new map vs the one from early today. The updated discussion finally said "2-4 inches for CNJ" (which they've been showing, but not saying) - obviously, per the maps, SE sections of CNJ are more likely to get 3-4" and NW sections are more likely to get 2-3", as per the swaths on the map. One thing I don't know but would like to is what snow/liquid ratios are they assuming? They use their own in-house tools for that as per previous conversations I've had with NWS mets (not Kuchera, which most mets don't take seriously), but they don't publish their estimates per location.
However, the NWS-NYC just updated and their snowfall map for their area, especially for LI, has been bumped up appreciably, as they now have advisories up for Nassau/Suffolk for ~3" of snow - that might bode well for increased NJ shore snowfall as they often are somewhat aligned. They also bumped up all of NYC to 2-3" of snow (was just the southern half of NYC at that level this morning.
Almost forgot - prediction time., I'll go with 2.8" for our house, as I think the storm will overperform a bit vs. the 2.4" forecast for Metuchen, due to good snow/liquid ratios and the jet streak dynamics the NWS has discussed, along with decent frontogenetics as per several models and almost all of the models increasing snowfall (a little bit) at 12Z (except the HRRR which is a major outlier and is obviously being ignored by the NWS and others). Would be a bit disappointed with <2".
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1259 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Overall, the near term forecast remains on track as low
pressure continues tracking east into the Deep South this
afternoon. As it does so, this low will transfer its energy to a
secondary low will form off the coast of North Carolina early
this evening. This secondary low will track off the coast of the
DelMarVa later on tonight. Overruning precipitation has begun to
develop out ahead of the low and move northward into DelMarVa.
Temperatures are now above freezing for most locations early
this afternoon. However, with dew points still in the teens,
wet-bulb temps remain at or below freezing across most of the
region. Therefore, as precipitation saturates the boundary
layer, surface temperatures will cool and snow is still
expected at the onset this afternoon. Light to moderate snow
will gradually progress northward through the the rest of the
afternoon and into the evening from southwest to northeast,
ultimately reaching the northern portions of the area by mid to
late evening. Periods of heavy snow will be possible over the
DelMarVa and portions of southern New Jersey this evening into
tonight as well. This is supported quite well in some of the hi-
res guidance which depicts a strong area of frontogenesis near
850 mb early this evening. This may pose a threat to some areas
across the central DelMarVa where some mixing issues may occur
later tonight. With this being said however, there likely will
be a localized snow band that develops with enhanced snowfall
rates. Where this occurs is still uncertain as we`ll likely need
to observe this in real time. However, the greatest likelihood
will be somewhere over the north-central Delmarva into south
Jersey.
Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect through 7 AM Wednesday
where 4-7 inches are expected. Again, there will likely be a
localized maxima which receives greater than 7 inches, depending
on and if the heavier snow band develops. Snowfall totals
decrease further north with 2-4 inches expected over much of
northern DE, southeast PA, and central NJ. Winter Weather
Advisories remain in effect until 7 AM Wednesday for these
areas. Across northeast PA and into northern NJ, snowfall totals
up to 2 inches are expected.
