I wanted to break down Washington's offense a bit ahead of our game with them Friday night. They replaced all 11 starters from last season's NC title appearance team along with their HC and OC. Let's start with the passing game...
Passing
Quarterback(s)
Will Rogers is a very good drop-back passer. Very accurate at all levels of the field and does not put the ball in harm's way often (just a 1.6% turnover worthy play rate).
- On passes at/behind the LOS and short passes, he's completing almost 90% of his passes (63/71 [88.7%] for 522 yards and 1 TD) on the season.
- He struggles most on intermediate routes (10-19 yards from LOS) completing just under 60% of his passes on the season (13/22 [59.1%] for 214 yards and 2 TDs)
- The place Rogers excels most is on deep passes (20+ yards from LOS). His 97.0 deep passing grade on PFF is 2nd best in the nation (behind only Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart) and Rogers has a 46.2% Big Time Throw rate on deep passes. On the season, he's 8/13 (61.5%) for 282 yards and 5 TDs.
- Rogers is NOT very mobile, totalling -17 yards on 17 rushes this season (when removing sacks, he has 8 carries for 58 yards with a fumble).
- Most of Washington's scoring in the passing game has come from deep and intermediate passing, with 7 of the 8 passing TDs Rogers has thrown being from those ranges.
Washington also has a sub-package with their backup
QB Demond Williams Jr, who is dangerous in the rushing game. On the season Williams is 11/14 (79%) for 113 yards and 1 TD through the air and 11 rushes for 78 yards on the ground.
Pass catchers
Washington has two primary WRs in
6th year SR Giles Jackson (5-9, 187 lbs) and
RS SO Denzel Boston (6-4, 209 lbs).
- Giles Jackson leads the team in catches and yards with 27 receptions for 342 yards and 1 TD. The majority of his targets come in the in the screen and short game, 14 of his catches coming as screens and another 7 coming within 9 yards of the LOS (21/27 in this range, 77.8%)
- Denzel Boston is 2nd on the team in catches and yards, while being first in TD catches. On the season he has 24 catches for 287 yards and 5 TDs. Boston primary works the short passing game, with 17 of his 24 receptions coming within 9 yards of the LOS
- A third big threat in the passing game is true FR TE Decker Degraaf (6-3, 240 lbs), who has just 4 receptions on the season but they're for 104 yards and 2 TDs (the 2 TDs both being in the deep passing game)
- UW also likes to utilize their star RB Jonah Coleman (5-9, 229 lbs) in the passing game, where he has 12 catches for 101 yards and 0 TDs this season and he's exclusively been used in the screen/safety valve/short passing game this year.
Rushing
The bell-cow back of UW is the aforementioned JR Arizona transfer
Jonah Coleman, who has 56 carries for 373 yards and 4 TDs on the year.
- On the season, Coleman has run the ball towards the right side of the OL on 40 of his 56 rushes, averaging 4.9 yards per carry when running toward the right side of the OL (40/236) and 8.6 yards per carry when running towards the left side of the OL (16/137). The left side numbers are skewed by a 64 yard rush, when removing that he's averaging a similar 4.9 yards per carry.
- Coleman likes to bounce runs to the outside, but he's a far better runner on a ypc average when running up the middle. On the season he's rushed 30 times for 165 yards (5.5 ypc) in outside runs and 26 times for 208 yards (8.0 ypc) on inside runs. Even when removing the 64 yard run, he's averaging more ypc on inside runs with 5.8 ypc.
- Washington has two other backs they like to mix into the run game in SR Cameron Davis (6-0, 214 lbs) and true FR Adam Mohammed (6-0, 212 lbs). They have combined for 37 rushes for 222 yards (6.0 ypc) and 0 TDs
Offensive Line
OL is the group on Washington's offense with by far the most problems. In terms of PFF grades, they rank:
- 43rd in pass blocking
- 78th in run blocking
Their starting OL is each rated between a 56.0 overall and a 65.0 overall in PFF's grading, which is... not great. Their offensive line's biggest issue this year has been penalties. As a unit, they've committed 12 penalties (5 holding, 7 false starts). Against Washington State alone they committed 4 false starts, in the only game that was not a true home game (played at Lumen Field, home of the Seattle Seahawks).
The other area the OL has struggled is at the center/QB exchange. Washington has had a number of bad/mishandled snaps so far this year as everyone gets used to playing with each other. In a tough environment, it wouldn't surprise me if Rutgers is able to take advantage of this weakness.
Penalties
Washington's other glaring weakness is one previously mentioned in the OL section... penalties. Washington is 125th (out of 133 FBS teams) in penalties committed per game, at 9.3 on the season. They committed 16 (!!) penalties in the Washington State game alone. This is a sign of an undisciplined team and an edge Rutgers will need to take advantage of.
How Rutgers Wins...
- Rutgers CANNOT allow Washington's WR group to get behind our defense. Will Rogers will not miss wide open guys streaking down the field like Kyron Drones did last week against VT.
- Pressure Will Rogers with 4. UW's OL is a weakness and Rutgers DL needs to take advantage of it without blitzing. Will Rogers is very good against the blitz (85.0 PFF grade, 71% completion 6 TDs), but not very good when pressured with 4 (58.6 PFF grade, 59.1% completion and 1 TD). Get to the QB without blitzing (easier said than done).
- Contain Jonah Coleman and don't let him get to the edge. Force him inside and allow our iDL to make plays.
- Rutgers CANNOT afford to miss tackles at the same rate they did against VT. Washington has a similarly talented skill position group as VT and will make Rutgers pay if we regularly miss tackles behind the LOS or in coverage.
- SHI Stadium needs to be LOUD on Friday night. Make this game a nightmare for the Washington offense and force them to commit dumb penalties to get their offense off-script
If Rutgers can limit the big plays of the Washington offense and doesn't turn the ball over, I think we win this game. I don't think UW is prepared for the environment we're expecting in the stadium, so Rutgers needs to establish momentum early in this game. Knock them back onto their heels and control the game from the jump. And when we take control, snuff out the hopes of Washington by finishing drives with TDs. We can't allow what happened at VT to happen again this year, the teams we will be facing are just too good moving forward.
