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2020-21 Big Ten Preview (and ongoing power rankings)

kcg88

Heisman Winner
Aug 11, 2017
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This started a thread to keep track the changes on Big Ten rosters this offseason but morphed into a full on preview. Quarantining is a hell of a drug. Transfers, recruits, etc are generally only updated when they're officially official.

Illinois

Graduating

Andres Feliz, G
Kipper Nichols, SF

Likely Gone (Draft)
Ayo Dosunmu, PG

Outgoing Transfers
Alan Griffin, G

Incoming Recruits
Andre Curbelo, PG (4*)
Adam Miller, SG (4*)
Coleman Hawkins, PF (3*)

Newly Eligible Transfers

Austin Hutcherson, G/F (Wesleyan)
Jacob Grandison, G/F (Holy Cross)

Summary
Losing Ayo Dosunmu is going to be the big headline but the Illini are very much positioned to reload rather than rebuild. Trent Frazier is still there at guard, and they'll have a lot of other weapons to plug in and see what works. Curbelo is the obvious Dosunmu replacement and though he likely won't be as dynamic, he won't have to be. Hutcherson was an obvious misfit at the D3 level where he dominated, and Grandison was a very good player at Holy Cross. Kofi Cockburn and Giorgi Bezhanishvili will be back (it appears), and adding Coleman Hawkins to the big man rotation will help alleviate some floor spacing issues.


Indiana

Graduating

Devonte Green, G
De'Ron Davis, C

Incoming Recruits
Khristian Lander, PG (5*) - Possible reclassification
Anthony Leal, G (4*)
Jordan Geronimo, SF (3*)
Trey Galloway, G (3*)

Summary
The Hoosiers of next year will look a lot like the Hoosiers of this year. Trayce Jackson-Davis has already announced he'll be returning to school rather than exploring draft options, so they'll have proven scoring inside with him and Joey Brunk. They'll need to infuse some shooting with Devonte Green leaving, as Al Durham was the only other decent shooter on the roster last year. It seems like 2021 5* Khristian Lander will reclassify and should help a lot, as Rob Phinisee hasn't been able to truly take the reins at PG.


Iowa
Graduating

Ryan Kreiner, F
Bakari Evelyn, G

Incoming Recruits
Aaron Ulis, G (3*)
Tony Perkins, G (3*)
Josh Ogundele, C (3*)
Keegan Murray, F (3*)
Kris Murray, F (3*)

Summary
The Hawkeyes success in 2019-20 was surprising for a few reasons. For one, they were playing with an extremely short bench with a shallow to roster to begin with and then injuries hit. Secondly, two guys who ran point after Jordan Bohannon got hurt were not threats to shoot at all, so teams could simply sag off. So for them to have the 5th best offense in the country says a lot about how good Luka Garza, CJ Fredrick, and Joe Wieskamp are. As of now it seems like they'll be back, though Wieskamp and Garza could certainly dip their toe in the NBA waters. With Bohannon, Jack Nunge, and Patrick McCaffrey returning from injuries plus five new recruits (it's a good bet at least one will break through as a solid Big Ten player as a freshman) the Hawkeyes are set up well. There are always going to be some defensive limitations because of Bohannon and Garza, but they'll easily make it up on the offensive end.


Maryland
Graduating

Anthony Cowan, G

Likely Gone (Draft)
Jalen Smith, C

Incoming Recruits
Marcus Dockery, G (3*)
Aquan Smart, G (3*)

Summary
So, obviously they're losing their two best players. But they DO bring everybody else back. Donta Scott showed well as a freshman and guys like Aaron Wiggins, Eric Ayala, and Daryl Morsell have all shown glimpses. But there's no obvious replacement for Cowan at point guard, and so much of their offense was structured around the attention that he and Smith provided. Without those two present in the offense, it's unclear who will be able to take over when needed. Big man Chol Marial is a former top-10 recruit but he's a walking injury and even when healthy didn't really get in the rotation this year. Neither of the incoming recruits seem primed to plug-and-play, but Cowan wasn't a top recruit either and Mark Turgeon made it work quickly with him.


Michigan State
Graduating

Cassius Winston, PG
Kyle Ahrens, F

Incoming Recruits
Mady Sissoko, C (4*)
AJ Hoggard, PG (4*)

Eligible Transfers
Joey Hauser, F (Marquette)

Summary
Like Illinois and Maryland, the Spartans are losing their heart-and-soul point guard but returning nearly everything else of consequence. Hoggard figures to get the ball early, with Rocket Watts seeing some time at point as well... It's worth noting that when Hoggard committed, their previously-committed PG decommitted a few days later. So it's clear he has the talent. They lose Ahrens but basically replace him with the much better version in Joey Hauser, an absolutely sharpshooter from distance at 6'9". Xavier Tillman will be back to grab seemingly every rebound and guys like Malik Hall, Gabe Brown, and Aaron Henry practically have BREAKOUT CANDIDATE tattooed on their foreheads. Do not expect much of a step back.


Michigan
Graduating

Zavier Simpson, G
Jon Teske, C
Austin Davis, C

Possibly Gone (Draft)
Isaiah Livers, G/F (Declared 3/30, did not sign with an agent)

Incoming Recruits
Isaiah Todd, PF (5*)
Josh Christopher, SG (5*) - Not committed but considered a strong Michigan lean
Hunter Dickinson, C (4*)
Zeb Jackson, SG (4*)
Terrance Williams, PF (4*)
Jace Howard, SF (3*)

Summary
The Wolverines brought Juwan Howard in partly because they thought he'd be a good recruiter... and they've been proven right. Their 2020 class is loaded and that's not even counting 5* Josh Christopher. Assuming Livers leaves, they'll be young with only one senior in Eli Brooks, but the talent is undeniable. Dickinson and Todd will easily replace the frontcourt production of Teske, and Christopher and Jackson will combine with Brooks and David DeJulius to anchor down the backcourt in Simpson's absence. It'll be a different-looking team to be sure but I would expect the same kind of results that we've seen these past few seasons.


Minnesota
Graduating

Alihan Demir, F
Michael Hurt, F

Gone (Draft)
Daniel Oturu, C

Possibly Gone (Draft)
Marcus Carr, G (Declared 3/30, did not sign with an agent)

Incoming Recruits
Jamal Mashburn, Jr., G (4*)
Martice Mitchell, PF (3*)

Summary

With the unsurprising news that Oturu will enter and remain in the draft, the Gophers outlook stays murky. This will be a heavily perimeter-oriented team, a departure from what we've seen with Oturu and Jordan Murphy before him. Marcus Carr is still one of the more dynamic guards in the league, and Mashburn Jr. will at least give him a break from needing to do everything for 40 minutes. Gabe Kalscheur slumped badly this past season but is still a quality shooter (as is Payton Willis). But they got almost nothing out of their freshman class so they'll need a breakout from a guy like Isaiah Ihnen to surprise people.


Nebraska
Graduating

Haanif Cheatham, F
Matej Kavas, C

Transferring Out

Dachon Burke, G
Jervay Green, F
Samari Curtis, G

Who The Hell Knows
Cam Mack, PG

Eligible Transfers
Derrick Walker, F (Tennessee)
Shamiel Stevenson, G (Pittsburgh)
Dalano Blanton, F (Western Kentucky)
Kobe Webster, PG (Western Illinois)
Kobe King, SG (Wisconsin)

Incoming Recruits
Teddy Allen, G (JUCO)
Lat Mayen, PF (JUCO)

Summary
Well, it's a Fred Hoiberg team so there's gonna be a lot of roster turnover. Let's start with Cam Mack, who got suspended 4 or 5 separate times this past season and recently declared for the NBA Draft. It's tough to see him remaining in, but if he does return to college it may not be with the Huskers. Or maybe the suspensions don't matter and he and Hoiberg will be fine. Who knows! He was a really good PG on a really bad team last year, and if he does come back he'll have a lot more weapons. If not, things get turned over to Kobes Webster and King. Webster was a decent passing guard for WIU but he's undersized and their team defense stunk, and he's not a great shooter. Kobe King was playing decently for Wisconsin, but the team got a lot better pretty much immediately after he left. So there's that.

The other three transfers (Walker, Stevenson, and Blanton) all have Big Ten bodies and athleticism but they were all nonfactors at their previous schools. So it's anyone's guess as to what they'll give. The returning big men, Kevin Cross and Yvan Ouedraogo, were, uh, let's say "young." Nebraska got destroyed on the board and while they'll have better team rebounding thanks to the athleticism boost, they've yet to address the other paint issues. But again, it's Fred Hoiberg... he'll pull in another transfer or two this off-season.


Northwestern
Graduating

Pat Spencer, G
AJ Turner, F

Eligible Transfers
Chase Audige, G (William & Mary)

Incoming Recruits
Ty Berry, G (3*)
Matt Nicholson, C (3*)

Summary
The weird lacrosse experiment with Pat Spencer... actually kind of worked better than I thought? Northwestern wasn't good, of course, but they were never going to be good. They were a young team last year and they'll be young again, with only one senior on the roster. Buie showed flashes of being a capable PG but he also showed flashes of being the 327th ranked recruit in his class. They really seemed to find something that worked with Miller Kopp and Ryan Young, though, and they'll need to lean on those guys while hoping that Buie, Robbie Beran, and Pete Nance can take strides foward. Audige is eligible after a sit-out year and he should help out in the shooting department, something desperately needed: Nobody besides Kopp and Beran shot above 30% on at least 17 attempts.


Ohio State
Graduating

Andre Wesson, F

Possibly Gone (Draft)
Kaleb Wesson, C

Transferring Out
DJ Carton, PG
Alonzo Gaffney, F

Eligible Transfers
Seth Towns, F (Harvard)
Justice Sueing, F (California)

Incoming Recruits
Eugene Brown III, SG (4*)
Zed Key, F (3*)

Summary
We'll have to wait and see what Kaleb Wesson does, but my guess is that Seth Towns did not commit here without thinking Wesson would be gone. Towns is a terrific player but has had trouble staying healthy in his career. He can replace a lot of what Wesson gave on the perimeter in terms of spacing (as will Justice Sueing), but they'll be missing a paint presence. It's likely they'll look to the transfer market here. Of course, it's all academic if Wesson does return, and it would set the Buckeyes up as a real threat to win the conference. CJ Walker admirably controlled the PG position once Carton took a break to address his mental health, and they have quality shooting with Duane Washington, Luther Muhammad, and Justin Ahrens.


Penn State
Graduating

Lamar Stevens, F
Mike Watkins, C
Curtis Jones, G

Incoming Transfer
Sam Sessoms, G (Will be a sit-out unless the rules are changed or he gets a waiver)

Incoming Recruits
Dallion Johnson, G (3*)
DJ Gordon, G (3*)
Valdir Manuel, F (3*)
Caleb Dorsey, F (3*)

The last of Pat Chambers' prized Philadelphia recruiting classes are gone in Stevens and Watkins (along with Tony Carr a few years ago). Now we'll see if he can rebuild. The two best pieces now are Myreon Jones, one of the best shooters in the conference, and Seth Lundy, who showed promise as a freshman. Izaih Brockington and Myles Dread are also playable options on the outside. John Harrar isn't bad inside but you'd rather have him as a second banana than a starting center. We saw it took Wisconsin a long time to figure out how to play once a high-usage guy (Ethan Happ) left and Penn State is going to have similar issues next season without Stevens. But I don't think the rest of the PSU roster is as good as the Wisconsin roster was without Happ. They could really use an impact transfer this off-season.


Purdue
Graduating

Jahaad Proctor, G
Evan Boudreaux, C

Incoming Recruits
Jaden Ivey, G (4*)
Ethan Morton, F (4*)
Zach Edey, C (3*)

Summary
This team's record was not indicative of their overall strength if you trust the computer numbers. Trevion Williams and Matt Haarms is a nice combo inside, and you figure Williams will continue to get better on defense. Eric Hunter and Sasha Stefanovic might not be Ryan Cline and Dakota Mathias, but they're good shooters nonetheless. Aaron Wheeler is a much better player than we saw in 2020, too. Nojel Eastern is a total wildcard but he's a plus defender and any offense you get from him is gravy. The team desperately missed a playmaking guard last year... Proctor filled those shoes here and there but not consistently. Jaden Ivey might be the solution there, and could open up their entire offense. They also have another quality freshman in Morton, and a redshirt freshman in Mason Gillis who will help on the wings.


Rutgers
Graduating

Akwasi Yeboah, F
Shaq Carter, C

Incoming Recruits
Oskar Palmquist, F (3*)
Mawot Mag, F (3*)
Dean Reiber, F (3*)

Summary
Losing Yeboah hurts, and Rutgers will need players to step up to fill his shot-making role. Geo Baker and Caleb McConnell are better than the sub-30%s they put up from three-point range, but they need to bring that to the table consistently. It'll also help if Palmquist can be a reliable shooter and if Mag and Reiber turn out to be at least capable (so, 30% guys instead of 25% guys). The defensive intensity will always be there, and Jacob Young at least figured it out a little bit offensively toward the end of the year. Adding some size behind Myles Johnson has to be the off-season priority (not jinxing anything, ahem). Assuming a slight defensive regression to the mean, the keys are if Baker and McConnell can regain their shooting form, and just how much can Ron Harper Jr. improve.


Wisconsin
Graduating

Brevin Pritzl, G

Transferring Out
Kobe King, F

Incoming Recruits
Ben Carlson, F (4*)
Johnny Davis, G (3*)
Lorne Bowman, G (3*)
Steven Crowl, C (3*)
Jordan Davis, F (3*)

Summary
The Badgers got really hot in the second half of the season, finishing on an eight-game winning streak. Not coincidentally, this happened when Kobe King transferred and Micah Potter was fully integrated into the lineup. They'll miss Pritzl's shooting but this a balance, senior-heavy team with Brad Davison, Nate Reuvers, D'Mitrik Trice, Aleem Ford, and Potter all in their final season. They know how good they can be and as long as they get enough from their role players, which is a Wisconsin signature, they'll come close to that ceiling.
 
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Big Ten Power Rankings (March 24, 2020)
TIER ONE
1. Iowa
2. Wisconsin
3. Michigan State
4. Illinois
5. Michigan
TIER TWO
6. Ohio State
7. Rutgers
8. Maryland
9. Purdue
10. Indiana
TIER THREE
11. Penn State
12. Minnesota
13. Northwestern
14. Nebraska

Tiers are divided such that any team could finish anywhere in their given tier and it would not surprise me.
 
Just as I post this, Xavier Tillman says he'll be testing the draft waters. I still think he'll be back at MSU.
 
Big Ten Power Rankings (March 24, 2020)
TIER ONE
1. Iowa
2. Wisconsin
3. Michigan State
4. Illinois
5. Michigan
TIER TWO
6. Ohio State
7. Rutgers
8. Maryland
9. Purdue
10. Indiana
TIER THREE
11. Penn State
12. Minnesota
13. Northwestern
14. Nebraska

Tiers are divided such that any team could finish anywhere in their given tier and it would not surprise me.

can someone please pick us 12th again!
 
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I think this is an excellent summary but I preach caution when it comes to thinking players leaving means that teams will get worse.

If a program has been recruiting well (Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State and Maryland), it would make sense to keep those teams in the top half of any projected results.

While I think Iowa has a lot of players, they're still not going to beat Michigan State, Michigan most years and are not better than RU IMO on a player to player basis....they're deeper, but you can only play 5 players at a time.

Rocket Watts is going to be better than Cassius Winston IMO, he's more explosive and faster...I don't see any dropoff there with Hoggard, who is still better talent wise than players in most lineups as a frosh.

My tiers would be

1) MSU
1A) Wisconsin
3) Michigan
4) Ohio State
5) Iowa (shaky here at 5, really should be lower)

Tier 2

6) Illinois (I think Curbelo is a better college player than Dousumu, while Dousumu is a more talented potential pro player).....Curbelo is going to be a thorn in the sides of a lot of programs in the B1G...I don't see Coleman Hawkins having an immediate impact in Year 1, there are too many players in front of him for next year (specifically Allan Griffin, who will do well in the Dousumu wing role)....will Hawkins stick it out and work if he doesn't see the floor immediately or start looking around to transfer......or should he redshirt and get stronger??)....the 2 sit out transfers are perfect complimentary pieces, I may push Illinois past Iowa if they perform early next year.

7) Rutgers.....I have this without the projections of a big being added and would probably place them in tier 1 past Illinois and Iowa based on overall team chemistry and player development....They will climb to 4th or 5th, should some random large wingspan Big man who runs like a deer, happens to stumble into the Barnabas practice facility and starts pushing RU to the top of the B1G in defensive rankings.

7A) Indiana....still not sure what's missing with the Hoosiers, but I'm reluctant to place them outside the NCAA bubble.

7B) Maryland....if Bryce Aiken picks Maryland vs let's say Michigan or Seton Hall, push Maryland past Iowa into the Top 6 of the B1G, he is Anthony Cowen 2.0. Turgeon also has an awful lot of unused talent, he just has to play the kids.

7C) Purdue.....strictly based on Matt Painter, they will be tough at home and I still have their 2 demolitions of Iowa planted in my head, as a reason to keep them in mind and to not go overboard on the Iowa hype-train.

11) Penn State....I think they're going to look back at how good they were hitting 3s and become a feast or famine team....very explosive 1 night, 4 for 22 from 3, the next....

11A) Northwestern ...if they had another step of quickness at all 5 positions on defense, they'd make the NIT bottom cutoff list as a 7th or 8th seed and a 16-15 type of team..I don't know if there's enough there, but similar to RU 2 years ago, they compete and play hard and really didn't cave in, when they easily could have. The upset at the end of the season, handily beating PSU, will push them through the offseason, to show their hard work was starting to payoff.

If Northwestern finds a lead guard who can orchestrate and defend, they become a pain in the neck...

13) Minnesota....the one program that seems to be putting things together on the fly....they're chasing every available transfer that hits the portal in the last 2 weeks, which screams out that their just looking for the best team, vs building a program with character pieces.....in this league, you have to build a program, class by class, finding roles and filling them 1 through 11 or 12....Pitino Jr is doing the opposite and his time will run out....apathy in the fanbase has set in, which is a bigger problem than Oturu heading to the NBA....RU target, frosh Martice Mitchell, should find plenty of minutes up front to learn and develop.

14) Nebraska.....see comments above on Minnesota....no willingness to defend, rebound and play as a team, will bury you in the bottom 1/4 of the league most years. Hoiberg appears to be slinging things against the wall, with no regard to chemistry or culture, to see if it sticks. This isn't Ames, Iowa....that may work in the Big 12 at Iowa State, not going to fly in the B1G.
 
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Surprising one here... Alan Griffin transferring from Illinois. Shot 41% from three this year. Originally from NY.

 
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He had a couple of dirty plays this year... But he seems like more of a knucklehead (like Brad Davison) than a bad person (like... any number of guys who get kicked off a team for assault or something).

I would take him but the coaches need to make it clear he can't pull that stuff here.

His brother is headed to Duke so I wouldn't be surprised to see Alan end up there too.
 
Awesome thread, kcg. I agree with your three tiers, though I think Illinois will take a step back without Dosunmu, Feliz, and now Griffin, so they probably belong in tier 2.

Iowa, Wisconsin and MSU are definitely the odds on favorites for the top 3 teams based on what they have returning.
 
The Griffin one is perplexing....Antigua was the NYC coach that opened the door for Illinois to get Griffin and Curbelo.
 
He had a couple of dirty plays this year... But he seems like more of a knucklehead (like Brad Davison) than a bad person (like... any number of guys who get kicked off a team for assault or something).

I would take him but the coaches need to make it clear he can't pull that stuff here.

His brother is headed to Duke so I wouldn't be surprised to see Alan end up there too.
I sense an attitude issue with him. He can play but his cost outweighs his benefit. Hard pass. He ll end up at a school that yearns for his style.
 
KCG - Great Post. My pre season rankings are as follows:

1. Iowa (presuming Garza and Bohanon return)
2. Wisconsin - only lose Pritzl but I still think they're not as good as their ranking
3. Michigan State - Huge loss with Winston but others will step up plus Hauser can suit up.
4 Illinois - great coach and though they lose Ayo (IMHO) - Im sure Cockburn and terrific recruiting class rise to occassion.
5. Michigan - Losing a lot (including Livers IMHO) but great class coming in.
6. Purdue - don't lose much and I expect a raise in their game.
7. Rutgers - we have to improve...right? Imperative we get Cliff and 1-2 freshmen step up
8. Ohio State - Holzmann is a terrific coach and if Big guy Wesson leaves, I actually think it's addition by subtraction.
9. Indiana - good recruiting class.
10. Penn State - young bucks will raise their game.
11. Maryland - assumes Jalen Smith is gone and I don't see recruiting class to compensate.
12. Northwestern (is Collins on hot seat?)
13. Nebraska
14. Minnesota (bye bye Rickey)
 
I didn’t remember but heard he was down to Illinois and Rutgers out of high school.

What I've found is that when guys transfer everyone disproportionately looks at the schools they were interested in coming out of high school but they almost always go somewhere else.
 
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Penn State had a scholarship open yesterday with Kyle McCloskey entering the portal.
 
Illinois loses another guard, although Jones was not going to make much of an impact.

 
Take a look at Purdue's site to see what some of their fans think about next year. One post had Rutgers as low as 12th for next year and another had Rutgers as high as 4th.

https://purdue.forums.rivals.com/threads/madness-boredom-2021-b1g-rankings.189879/
Purdue is the least of our problems. They have shitty guards compared to ours and probably most top teams in the country. Until they get another Carson Edwards type to do along with ice in their veins shooters and defenders like Ryan Kline and Dakota Matias , they are below us. Stevanovich is not Ryan Kline, way too inconsistent. Ryan Kline had one of the best most consistent three point clutch shooting senior years of all time. We swept them and will continue to do so into the future.
 
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