3 PT shooting....RU and rest of B1G....

[NewJerseyHawk]

To recap things because there's bad information that continues to circulate about the staff and an inability to "coach offense". It is an obvious item that coaching does not correct, it simply comes down to skill level, talent of the players and playing with players, who also can shoot, pass, score and playmake.

The fewer playmakers you have, the worse your shooting will be. Playmakers create drives to the basket, to then find shooters, with an ability to knock down 3 pointers. RU has a 3 point shooting issue, much more than anyone else in the B1G, by a LOT.

For seasons since 2017-18, here are the 3 PT% shooting percentages for the season.

2017-18 - 29.0%
2018-19 - 31.2%
2019-20- 31.0%
2020-21- 31.1 %
2021-22- 33.6%
2022-23- 31.8%
2023-24- 29.1%

Here's where it gets ugly for this current situation this year.

Of the 84 players who have relevant minutes each B1G game, 65 of those players shoot at least 30% from 3 PT range.....that means 19 players shoot under 30% from 3 for the season.

Here's the team breakdown of how many of the 19 players who shoot under 30% for each team.

Michigan State (0)
Nebraska (0)
Northwestern (0)
Michigan (1)
Indiana (1)
Minnesota (1)
Purdue (1)
Penn State (1)
Wisconsin (1)
Illinois (1)
Maryland (2)
Ohio State (2)
Iowa (3)
RUTGERS (5.....!!!)

The players who make up the 5 RU shooters under 30% from 3....

Mag 24.5% (12-49)
JWilliams 25% (3-12)
Griffiths 25% (20-80)
Davis 25.9% (7-27)
Cliff 20% (1-5)

The rest are also not far away, where a couple of misses from Oskar and Simpson, would push that number to SEVEN.....

Oskar -31.3% (10-32)
Simpson- 30.2% (19-63)
Hyatt 32.1% (44-137)
A Williams 35.7% (5-14)
Fernandes 35.9% (23-64)

I am only pointing out that RU could have 7 of the 21 potential players in all of the B1G, who play relevant minutes, under 30% from 3.

There's literally no amount of coaching, or offensive coaching, plays etc, that overcomes sub 30%, from the bulk of your rotation.

Can players improve in the last 4 games or B1G tournament?? Sure it's possible and probably more likely that they improve, vs getting worse. But once you add in FT at 61% at home but 78% on the road and it becomes a talent, skill issue, not a coaching issue.

 

[richthedentist]

To recap things because there's bad information that continues to circulate about the staff and an inability to "coach offense". It is an obvious item that coaching does not correct, it simply comes down to skill level, talent of the players and playing with players, who also can shoot, pass, score and playmake.

The fewer playmakers you have, the worse your shooting will be. Playmakers create drives to the basket, to then find shooters, with an ability to knock down 3 pointers. RU has a 3 point shooting issue, much more than anyone else in the B1G, by a LOT.

For seasons since 2017-18, here are the 3 PT% shooting percentages for the season.

2017-18 - 29.0%
2018-19 - 31.2%
2019-20- 31.0%
2020-21- 31.1 %
2021-22- 33.6%
2022-23- 31.8%
2023-24- 29.1%

Here's where it gets ugly for this current situation this year.

Of the 84 players who have relevant minutes each B1G game, 65 of those players shoot at least 30% from 3 PT range.....that means 19 players shoot under 30% from 3 for the season.

Here's the team breakdown of how many of the 19 players who shoot under 30% for each team.

Michigan State (0)
Nebraska (0)
Northwestern (0)
Michigan (1)
Indiana (1)
Minnesota (1)
Purdue (1)
Penn State (1)
Wisconsin (1)
Illinois (1)
Maryland (2)
Ohio State (2)
Iowa (3)
RUTGERS (5.....!!!)

The players who make up the 5 RU shooters under 30% from 3....

Mag 24.5% (12-49)
JWilliams 25% (3-12)
Griffiths 25% (20-80)
Davis 25.9% (7-27)
Cliff 20% (1-5)

The rest are also not far away, where a couple of misses from Oskar and Simpson, would push that number to SEVEN.....

Oskar -31.3% (10-32)
Simpson- 30.2% (19-63)
Hyatt 32.1% (44-137)
A Williams 35.7% (5-14)
Fernandes 35.9% (23-64)

I am only pointing out that RU could have 7 of the 21 potential players in all of the B1G, who play relevant minutes, under 30% from 3.

There's literally no amount of coaching, or offensive coaching, plays etc, that overcomes sub 30%, from the bulk of your rotation.

Can players improve in the last 4 games or B1G tournament?? Sure it's possible and probably more likely that they improve, vs getting worse. But once you add in FT at 61% at home but 78% on the road and it becomes a talent, skill issue, not a coaching issue.

Why are we so bad shooting FT’s at home and that number is really lower because a bunch of those are front ends of one and ones

 

[ScarletNut]

To recap things because there's bad information that continues to circulate about the staff and an inability to "coach offense". It is an obvious item that coaching does not correct, it simply comes down to skill level, talent of the players and playing with players, who also can shoot, pass, score and playmake.

The fewer playmakers you have, the worse your shooting will be. Playmakers create drives to the basket, to then find shooters, with an ability to knock down 3 pointers. RU has a 3 point shooting issue, much more than anyone else in the B1G, by a LOT.

For seasons since 2017-18, here are the 3 PT% shooting percentages for the season.

2017-18 - 29.0%
2018-19 - 31.2%
2019-20- 31.0%
2020-21- 31.1 %
2021-22- 33.6%
2022-23- 31.8%
2023-24- 29.1%

Here's where it gets ugly for this current situation this year.

Of the 84 players who have relevant minutes each B1G game, 65 of those players shoot at least 30% from 3 PT range.....that means 19 players shoot under 30% from 3 for the season.

Here's the team breakdown of how many of the 19 players who shoot under 30% for each team.

Michigan State (0)
Nebraska (0)
Northwestern (0)
Michigan (1)
Indiana (1)
Minnesota (1)
Purdue (1)
Penn State (1)
Wisconsin (1)
Illinois (1)
Maryland (2)
Ohio State (2)
Iowa (3)
RUTGERS (5.....!!!)

The players who make up the 5 RU shooters under 30% from 3....

Mag 24.5% (12-49)
JWilliams 25% (3-12)
Griffiths 25% (20-80)
Davis 25.9% (7-27)
Cliff 20% (1-5)

The rest are also not far away, where a couple of misses from Oskar and Simpson, would push that number to SEVEN.....

Oskar -31.3% (10-32)
Simpson- 30.2% (19-63)
Hyatt 32.1% (44-137)
A Williams 35.7% (5-14)
Fernandes 35.9% (23-64)

I am only pointing out that RU could have 7 of the 21 potential players in all of the B1G, who play relevant minutes, under 30% from 3.

There's literally no amount of coaching, or offensive coaching, plays etc, that overcomes sub 30%, from the bulk of your rotation.

Can players improve in the last 4 games or B1G tournament?? Sure it's possible and probably more likely that they improve, vs getting worse. But once you add in FT at 61% at home but 78% on the road and it becomes a talent, skill issue, not a coaching issue.

What's the bad info you are referring to? I agree those numbers point to lack of skill players. Is it their fault that they lack skill or is it Pike's fault that those lack of skill players are on the roster? I think the answer is obvious.

 

[seansherm]

In a world where the coach picks the players, it's still really a coaching issue. Recruit guys that can't shoot and can't create open looks for others and it's still the coaches issue.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

What's the bad info you are referring to? I agree those numbers point to lack of skill players. Is it their fault that they lack skill or is it Pike's fault that those lack of skill players are on the roster? I think the answer is obvious.

There's another narrative that keeps being posted by others that "RU needs an offensive assistant coach" or some illogical stuff. There's also this completely false item that I have to constantly correct, involving Mawot Mag and how essential he is to this team and next year, which is 100% false.

Next year's roster needs an Akwasi Yeboah, not a Mawot Mag. Yeboah hit 35% from 3 in his season at RU, where RU also played tough defense. The notion that RU needs Mag, at sub 30% 3 point shooting as a starter, is nowhere near true.

We need an upgrade in the backcourt next year and that's obvious with Dylan Harper arriving and another season of JWill. There needs to be improvements on Simpson, Davis and Griffiths parts.....they ALL have to increase their shot attempts and makes from 3 next year as well.

I don't see a path for success, if RU knowingly brings back and starts Mag and plays Simpson significant minutes next year. I "might" be able to get on board with Davis, because he plays with a better pace at guard and is a good defender.

Simpson did go from 21.7 to 30.2% from 3 this year, but 30.2 is not the standard, it needs to be around 34 to 35%, in order to win games. Anyone under 30% from 3PT range with starters minutes, becomes a serious problem for the staff to coach around or overcome.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

In a world where the coach picks the players, it's still really a coaching issue. Recruit guys that can't shoot and can't create open looks for others and it's still the coaches issue.

I'm not saying it's not the coaches responsibility, but we have fans who are locked in on having Mag as a starter the rest of this year and next year. The staff is ultimately responsible for the lineups this year, but I fully expect a continued overhaul after this season......especially with the 5 freshman and a likely portal or 2 being added as well.

We have to correct these false narratives that keep coming up and are undocumented without any supporting information. This post CLEARLY supports an overhaul of starters next year, not continuing to play sub 25 to 30% 3 point shooters.

 

[ScarletNut]

There's another narrative that keeps being posted by others that "RU needs an offensive assistant coach" or some illogical stuff. There's also this completely false item that I have to constantly correct, involving Mawot Mag and how essential he is to this team and next year, which is 100% false.

Next year's roster need an Akwasi Yeboah, not a Mawot Mag. Yeboah hit 35% from 3 in his season at RU, where RU also played tough defense. The notion that RU needs Mag, at sub 30% 3 point shooting as a starter, is nowhere near true.

We need an upgrade in the backcourt next year and that's obvious with Dylan Harper arriving and another season of JWill. There needs to be improvements on Simpson, Davis and Griffiths parts.....they ALL have to increase their shot attempts and makes from 3 next year as well.

I don't see a path for success, if RU knowingly brings back and starts Mag and plays Simpson significant minutes next year. I "might" be able to get on board with Davis, because he plays with a better pace at guard and is a good defender.

Simpson did go from 21.7 to 30.2% from 3 this year, but 30.2 is not the standard, it needs to be around 34 to 35%, in order to win games. Anyone under 30% from 3PT range with starters minutes, becomes a serious problem for the staff to coach around or overcome.

Without disagreeing with your above analysis, I have 2 questions. Do you think Pike has legitimately good offensive concepts? If not, why wouldn't you bring an offensive minded assistant on board?

 

[zappaa]

We recruit great athletes, that’s a given because you don’t get a scholarship from a D-1 school unless you’re a great athlete.
Pike gave scholarships to great athletes that can’t shoot because that’s all that was available to him.

Many Thanks to RHJ and Dylan literally growing up in the Rutgers program, both of them along with Pike being a great players coach is the reason for a great class coming in

 

[DowntownT_Brown]

I think Pike is great and has done an amazing job at pulling Rutgers out of the basement but his soft spot does seem to be building a balanced roster and then retaining players who excel.

 

[RUChoppin]

You included Omoruyi in that list? Looks like you set no parameters for attempts at all, lol

 

[BillyC80]

You included Omoruyi in that list? Looks like you set no parameters for attempts at all, lol

Agree. Should probably only consider guys who average at least one 3-point shot per game they have played. That removes Cliff and Austin from the equation.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

There are many variables but 3 to point out.....

1. The obvious---player's ability to make shots
2. teammates willing to make the right pass and to the shooting pocket of the shooter
3. Spacing and offensive schemes/plays

I think #3 is where fans could be overreacting, but.....CLiff gets a low post entry, he gets doubled, and all 4 guys are on the weakside...the player who made the entry pass went to weak side after the pass. Where the heck is Cliff supposed to pass to? There is a natural opportunity for a good look.

In addition, we have a play that we have run about 5 times where Cliff sets a down screen that put the wing (Gavin) either wit an open shot or a PNR situation. Why are we not running this a few times per game with Gavin in there?

 

[seansherm]

I'm not saying it's not the coaches responsibility, but we have fans who are locked in on having Mag as a starter the rest of this year and next year. The staff is ultimately responsible for the lineups this year, but I fully expect a continued overhaul after this season......especially with the 5 freshman and a likely portal or 2 being added as well.

We have to correct these false narratives that keep coming up and are undocumented without any supporting information. This post CLEARLY supports an overhaul of starters next year, not continuing to play sub 25 to 30% 3 point shooters.

There is no doubt that this year's Mag is not close to what last year's Mag was becoming. Coming off injury myself, I get it, he may never be what he was progressing to be. Whether he's here next year isn't something I worry about yet, agree, there will be changes. For this year, I wouldn't have an issue if Palm suddenly became the starting four, hell, they rebound at the same rate and Palm gives you spacing. Let Mag be energy off the bench if healthy.
Simpson has shot 36% from three as a starter. His problem is he continues to take the wrong shots. If he stopped the mid range and moved those shots to three and his % dropped drastically, then I'd be more negative on him. I think Williams also needs to be looked at closer, he's not everything he's been built to be either. He can, at least, finish at the rim, but he's a pretty poor shooter too. I said elsewhere, experience/age is his main attribute.

 

[ScarletDave]

Yep I say this all the time. People say we need an offense coach. Wrong, we have wide open 3s every game that get clanked. Cant draw up a better play than Wide Open 3. Feels like we shoot below 50% on these, it’s hold your breath. Meanwhile most of our opponents on Wide Open 3s shoot probably 90%, as any Power 5 basketball player would be expected to.

Pikiell is hopefully answering this issue with the recruiting class coming in, and has to do better in the transfer portal than he has so far at RU.

 

[RUChoppin]

Of the 64 Big Ten players that have 40% minutes used with at least 40 3PA, 12 of them are at .300 or lower.

3 - Maryland (Kaiser, Geronimo, Harris-Smith)
2 - Rutgers (Mag, Griffiths)
2 - Iowa (Perkins, McCaffery)
2 - OSU (Bonner, Gayle)
1 - Minnesota (Carrington)
1 - Indiana (Galloway)
1 - Illinois (Domask)

On the flip side, of the Big Ten players with >40% min used and at least 40 3PA, 27 are shooting better than .360
4 - MSU (Hollman, Akins, Walker, Hall)
4 - Purdue (Gillis, Smith, Loyer, Jones)
3 - Illinois (Hawkins, Goode, Harmon)
3 - Nebraska (Wilcher, Tominaga, Williams)
3 - Northwestern (Berry, Langborg, Buie)
2 - Iowa (Dix, Sandfort)
2 - Michigan (Williams, Burnett)
2 - Minnesota (Christie, Mitchell)
1 - OSU (Battle)
1 - PSU (Clary*)
1 - Rutgers (Fernandes)
1 - Wisconsin (Klesmit)
0 - Indiana
0 - Maryland

Given that, it's not surprising who the worst offenses in the conference are in ppg:
14th - Rutgers (2 under .300, 1 over .360)
13th - Maryland (3 under .300, 0 over .360)
12th - Indiana (1 under .300, 0 over .360)
11th - OSU (2 under .300, 1 over .360)

 

[RUChoppin]

Yep I say this all the time. People say we need an offense coach. Wrong, we have wide open 3s every game that get clanked. Cant draw up a better play than Wide Open 3. Feels like we shoot below 50% on these, it’s hold your breath. Meanwhile most of our opponents on Wide Open 3s shoot probably 90%, as any Power 5 basketball player would be expected to.

Pikiell is hopefully answering this issue with the recruiting class coming in, and has to do better in the transfer portal than he has so far at RU.

Man, where are you getting those numbers from 🤣

 

[satnom]

To recap things because there's bad information that continues to circulate about the staff and an inability to "coach offense". It is an obvious item that coaching does not correct, it simply comes down to skill level, talent of the players and playing with players, who also can shoot, pass, score and playmake.

The fewer playmakers you have, the worse your shooting will be. Playmakers create drives to the basket, to then find shooters, with an ability to knock down 3 pointers. RU has a 3 point shooting issue, much more than anyone else in the B1G, by a LOT.

For seasons since 2017-18, here are the 3 PT% shooting percentages for the season.

2017-18 - 29.0%
2018-19 - 31.2%
2019-20- 31.0%
2020-21- 31.1 %
2021-22- 33.6%
2022-23- 31.8%
2023-24- 29.1%

Here's where it gets ugly for this current situation this year.

Of the 84 players who have relevant minutes each B1G game, 65 of those players shoot at least 30% from 3 PT range.....that means 19 players shoot under 30% from 3 for the season.

Here's the team breakdown of how many of the 19 players who shoot under 30% for each team.

Michigan State (0)
Nebraska (0)
Northwestern (0)
Michigan (1)
Indiana (1)
Minnesota (1)
Purdue (1)
Penn State (1)
Wisconsin (1)
Illinois (1)
Maryland (2)
Ohio State (2)
Iowa (3)
RUTGERS (5.....!!!)

The players who make up the 5 RU shooters under 30% from 3....

Mag 24.5% (12-49)
JWilliams 25% (3-12)
Griffiths 25% (20-80)
Davis 25.9% (7-27)
Cliff 20% (1-5)

The rest are also not far away, where a couple of misses from Oskar and Simpson, would push that number to SEVEN.....

Oskar -31.3% (10-32)
Simpson- 30.2% (19-63)
Hyatt 32.1% (44-137)
A Williams 35.7% (5-14)
Fernandes 35.9% (23-64)

I am only pointing out that RU could have 7 of the 21 potential players in all of the B1G, who play relevant minutes, under 30% from 3.

There's literally no amount of coaching, or offensive coaching, plays etc, that overcomes sub 30%, from the bulk of your rotation.

Can players improve in the last 4 games or B1G tournament?? Sure it's possible and probably more likely that they improve, vs getting worse. But once you add in FT at 61% at home but 78% on the road and it becomes a talent, skill issue, not a coaching issue.

Those numbers are fugly.

GO RU

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

You included Omoruyi in that list? Looks like you set no parameters for attempts at all, lol

I could drop Omoyuri and Zed Key from Ohio State (3 of 9).

My point on Cliff is relevant because bringing him back next year is assuming he catches and converts the same passes that Simpson, Davis and JWill provide him.....is he going to properly pass that back to the guards or playmake and pivot, face the basket and make a cross court pass to an open shooter.....OR

Do we invest those minutes into Lathan Sommerville as the 5 and let his skill set and offensive game, help expand what we do on offense??

If Cliff isn't shooting from the perimeter, and isn't making plays with his post ups AND it's risky to ask him to playmake or pass out of the post, can RU be a good offensive team?? It only takes one player to disrupt the flow of an offense, if that player is not on the same wavelength or skill sets as the other 4.

Add in Mag to that equation and it becomes impossible (in my opinion) to be good on offense.....and there's no supporting that either player playmakes with shots, passes or plays to other players on the floor.

If we watch a team like Nebraska with Hoiberg, they are in Year 4 and their current center is not a defensive player.....he's a hybrid player who can pivot, pass, drive to either hand and has a space up shot from out to 15 to 17 feet. Mast for Nebraska has the same skill sets that Lathan Sommerville has. I think Sommerville is extremely gifted and has range.

If fans saw Sommerville highlights from his game at the RAC in late December, he had range out to the wing/3 point line AND some post up moves in the paint.

There are fans petrified of changes or going with different players or younger players. While this year is very frustrating in a lot of ways, it was really necessary to start this process now in 2023-24. Some fans are scared of losing Mag and lesser extent Cliff. If Cliff wants to return, you take that and run with it and move forward.....I think Cliff as the 4th or 5th option on the floor, just to rebound and defend, works for me.

But it requires upgrades at Mag spot, that position requires wing and 3 point shooting. I can't expect Dylan and Ace to overcome or carry Mag and lesser extent Cliff on offense next year.

 

[RUChoppin]

@NewJerseyHawk - I reran the numbers (above) excluding those with lower numbers of attempts.

We just don't have any shooters.

3PA
137 - Hyatt (.321)
80 - Griffiths (.250)
64 - Fernandes (.364.... .305 outside his one 5/5 outing)
63 - Simpson (.302)
49 - Mag (.245)
32 - Palmquist (.313)
27 - Davis (.259)

- Our most consistent shooter is Hyatt, and he's only hit .321 on the year (.297 career).
- Griffiths was supposed to be a shooter, but he hasn't shown it yet.
- Fernandes was a shooter at UMass, but other than one fantastic game hasn't shown it here.
- Simpson is much improved over last year, but is still just .302
- Mag's best season was .300 last year, and he shouldn't be taking as many as he does (2.9/game is way way too many - imo, that # should be <1.0). As much as I get on Simpson for taking too many in the 15-20ft range, Mag shouldn't be taking so many behind the arc.

And JWill is also not a shooter (career .265 on just 98 attempts across 3 seasons).

Harper/Bailey are going to come in next year expected to carry the burden from the arc, unless Griffiths can somehow put the pieces together going into next year or we can find a shooter in the portal.

 

[kcg88]

Hawk, I've disagreed with you plenty but you're absolutely right here. The problem is the shooters, not the players. Kentucky leads the nation in 3P% and it's not because John Calipari is a modern offensive guru. Purdue went from 276th last year to 4th this year not because Matt Painter changed his offense, but because Foster Loyer and Mason Gillis got better and he stopped giving minutes to Ethan Morton and Caleb Furst.

 

[RUChoppin]

Hawk, I've disagreed with you plenty but you're absolutely right here. The problem is the shooters, not the players. Kentucky leads the nation in 3P% and it's not because John Calipari is a modern offensive guru. Purdue went from 276th last year to 4th this year not because Matt Painter changed his offense, but because Foster Loyer and Mason Gillis got better and he stopped giving minutes to Ethan Morton and Caleb Furst.

Purdue also picked up Lance Jones from Southern Illinois, too, who has taken 29.1% of Purdue's overall attempts and hit at .366

 

[bethlehemfan]

There's another narrative that keeps being posted by others that "RU needs an offensive assistant coach" or some illogical stuff. There's also this completely false item that I have to constantly correct, involving Mawot Mag and how essential he is to this team and next year, which is 100% false.

Next year's roster needs an Akwasi Yeboah, not a Mawot Mag. Yeboah hit 35% from 3 in his season at RU, where RU also played tough defense. The notion that RU needs Mag, at sub 30% 3 point shooting as a starter, is nowhere near true.

We need an upgrade in the backcourt next year and that's obvious with Dylan Harper arriving and another season of JWill. There needs to be improvements on Simpson, Davis and Griffiths parts.....they ALL have to increase their shot attempts and makes from 3 next year as well.

I don't see a path for success, if RU knowingly brings back and starts Mag and plays Simpson significant minutes next year. I "might" be able to get on board with Davis, because he plays with a better pace at guard and is a good defender.

Simpson did go from 21.7 to 30.2% from 3 this year, but 30.2 is not the standard, it needs to be around 34 to 35%, in order to win games. Anyone under 30% from 3PT range with starters minutes, becomes a serious problem for the staff to coach around or overcome.

You touch on it briefly but the other big problem is the guards and forwards other than jwill lack the physicality/handle to get to the rim. It’s a huge issue for this years team.

 

[RUChoppin]

You touch on it briefly but the other big problem is the guards and forwards other than jwill lack the physicality/handle to get to the rim. It’s a huge issue for this years team.

Looking at 2P% instead of 3P% and our numbers get even worse.

There are 85 Big Ten players with 40% min used that have at least 40 attempts from 2P range. Just 10 of those players have hit at under .430

4 - Rutgers (Simpson .328, Fernandes .371, Griffiths .386, Davis .407)
1 - Purdue (Loyer .393)
1 - PSU (Hicks .415)
1 - OSU (Bonner .329)
1 - Minnesota (Hawkins .407)
1 - Maryland (Young .429)
1 - Indiana (Cupps .364)

 

[rufeelinit]

This a good thread with some stats and information that tries to bring our issues into better focus. I heard Jay Wright say the other day that 3pt shooting % is less important than the number of 3 pt shots made. To put this in perspective, one would need to not only look at the number of made 3pt shots but also the number of 3pt shots taken. While I have not done the analysis, I assume our 3 pt shots attempted is probably not that high as we seem to settle for too many mid range shots which we don't make either. This is probably where the criticism of Simpson's shot selection is valid. If you are going to shoot a low percentage you might as well take more from 3 pt range where the payoff is better.

I think there is a valid line of criticism for our offense. Maybe it is just a personal style preference but I never watch RU run their offensive sets and think hey they look like Iowa under McCaffrey, Mich/WVU under Beilien, UConn under Hurley or Calhoun, Villanova under Jay ..etc. These guys run motion offenses where RU seems to do everything with a lot less of a purpose out there. Too much stagnant standing around while one person dribbles. Do we not shoot that many threes because Pike does not value them or is our offense not suited for getting easier shots? This criticism is not new as we had Eugene Omoruyi who would use half the shot clock back his guy down while others stood and watched.

Maybe it would not make a big difference since this team has struggled around the rim, in the mid range and from 3pt range, but if you ask me if I think we run crisp offensive sets versus our competition I would say definitely not. I bet opposing coaches think we are relatively easy to defend and take away what little offensive firepower we have.

 

[goru7]

To recap things because there's bad information that continues to circulate about the staff and an inability to "coach offense". It is an obvious item that coaching does not correct, it simply comes down to skill level, talent of the players and playing with players, who also can shoot, pass, score and playmake.

The fewer playmakers you have, the worse your shooting will be. Playmakers create drives to the basket, to then find shooters, with an ability to knock down 3 pointers. RU has a 3 point shooting issue, much more than anyone else in the B1G, by a LOT.

For seasons since 2017-18, here are the 3 PT% shooting percentages for the season.

2017-18 - 29.0%
2018-19 - 31.2%
2019-20- 31.0%
2020-21- 31.1 %
2021-22- 33.6%
2022-23- 31.8%
2023-24- 29.1%

Here's where it gets ugly for this current situation this year.

Of the 84 players who have relevant minutes each B1G game, 65 of those players shoot at least 30% from 3 PT range.....that means 19 players shoot under 30% from 3 for the season.

Here's the team breakdown of how many of the 19 players who shoot under 30% for each team.

Michigan State (0)
Nebraska (0)
Northwestern (0)
Michigan (1)
Indiana (1)
Minnesota (1)
Purdue (1)
Penn State (1)
Wisconsin (1)
Illinois (1)
Maryland (2)
Ohio State (2)
Iowa (3)
RUTGERS (5.....!!!)

The players who make up the 5 RU shooters under 30% from 3....

Mag 24.5% (12-49)
JWilliams 25% (3-12)
Griffiths 25% (20-80)
Davis 25.9% (7-27)
Cliff 20% (1-5)

The rest are also not far away, where a couple of misses from Oskar and Simpson, would push that number to SEVEN.....

Oskar -31.3% (10-32)
Simpson- 30.2% (19-63)
Hyatt 32.1% (44-137)
A Williams 35.7% (5-14)
Fernandes 35.9% (23-64)

I am only pointing out that RU could have 7 of the 21 potential players in all of the B1G, who play relevant minutes, under 30% from 3.

There's literally no amount of coaching, or offensive coaching, plays etc, that overcomes sub 30%, from the bulk of your rotation.

Can players improve in the last 4 games or B1G tournament?? Sure it's possible and probably more likely that they improve, vs getting worse. But once you add in FT at 61% at home but 78% on the road and it becomes a talent, skill issue, not a coaching issue.

Only problem with your definitive statement , is that it is only partially true. I will agree we do not have players that are good three point shooters as evidenced by how many of our players miss open three pointers routinely.
However , not attempting threes or running screens , staggered screens or pin downs to get a better attempt at the 3 is a huge problem and that is on Pike. He has done it in selective games but not all games . Why?
Hyatt, Gavin and Noah are our 3 best three point shooters and they are not getting 3 attempts ( with an occasional exception for Gavin ) after a screen , double screen , staggered screen , or a pin down. That can be corrected. We cannot win games hitting 3-4 threes a game and only attempting 12. Coach can do a lot better to fix that.

 

[seansherm]

Hawk, I've disagreed with you plenty but you're absolutely right here. The problem is the shooters, not the players. Kentucky leads the nation in 3P% and it's not because John Calipari is a modern offensive guru. Purdue went from 276th last year to 4th this year not because Matt Painter changed his offense, but because Foster Loyer and Mason Gillis got better and he stopped giving minutes to Ethan Morton and Caleb Furst.

Loyer and Gillis got better, but those two are also shooting three's less than last year, while adding a volume three shooter in Jones. Team is pretty much taking the same amount of three's as it did last year, just progression and reallocation as you mention.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

You touch on it briefly but the other big problem is the guards and forwards other than jwill lack the physicality/handle to get to the rim. It’s a huge issue for this years team.

There is a somewhat lack of appreciation between what Geo Baker brought to the table on very tough drives and layups, in traffic, vs trying to see Davis and Simpson also attempt those same drives....I think Davis is better than Simpson on those drives, but I have no doubt Dylan will get calls from refs, that others won't get, because of his name recognition and ability to draw contact.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

NJH...question for you.....

We have Jeremiah, JaMike, and Derek. They are all plus defenders, high compete levels and all 3 can't shoot.

What is the max minutes that can be slotted for them in a perfect world?
Does that maybe mean there isn't room for all 3?

It is 2024 and I am evolving my thoughts about roster construction and am starting to think the floor of a guard you can have in the rotation (with exceptions for elite players) is to be like a Mulcahy who you can expect to make over 32-34% in a non volume role....again bare minimum. I think those 3 guards don't pass my test.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Only problem with your definitive statement , is that it is only partially true. I will agree we do not have players that are good three point shooters as evidenced by how many of our players miss open three pointers routinely.
However , not attempting threes or running screens , staggered screens or pin downs to get a better attempt at the 3 is a huge problem and that is on Pike. He has done it in selective games but not all games . Why?
Hyatt, Gavin and Noah are our 3 best three point shooters and they are not getting 3 attempts ( with an occasional exception for Gavin ) after a screen , double screen , staggered screen , or a pin down. That can be corrected. We cannot win games hitting 3-4 threes a game and only attempting 12. Coach can do a lot better to fix that.

If I am defending RU and an opposing coaching staff, I know what an opponent can run against my players and what they cannot. I also could properly matchup, to prevent a favorable matchup from occurring.

In a slight example from yesterday, when Gavin Griffiths came into the game, Willard immediately countered with Jaime Kaiser (also arriving as a frosh with a shooters reputation and also struggling from 3 this year).....Willard is essentially willing to risk having Kaiser guard Griffiths (or vice versa).

In that case, Kaiser literally has one job....attach yourself to Gavin, because unless Gavin starts to drive to score, he becomes an easy person to defend. Kaiser from Maryland is less likely as the 5th option for Maryland to drive and score, that would be a win for RUs defense.

A good coaching staff can prevent pin downs and other set plays for shooters. What an opposing coach can't control are "unique" players.....players who can get to the basket, draw fouls and shoot, while being a "solid" defender.

RU fans need more complete basketball players on offense.....the number of complete offensive players in the Pike era are limited.....Geo, RHJ, Jacob Young, Yeboah, Sanders (when mid range or 3 is on) and my hopes for Gavin Griffiths developing into a respectable defender.

RU has survived based on having unique players, that are overwhelming or dominant in one or two categories, that it overrides their overall deficiencies.....

Myles Johnson, Caleb McConnell, Cam Spencer, Paul Mulcahy, Cliff Omoyuri, Montez Mathis fit this category in recent years. They were either dominant on the glass or defense or excellent in passing, driving and scoring or blocking/altering shots.

When we have players who have no defined or dominant strengths, it becomes a chess match on the staff to try and mix and match on a game to game basis. That's how I see the bulk of the rosters the last 2 seasons....either very unique players or players with no defined strengths to their game on either end of the court.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

NJH...question for you.....

We have Jeremiah, JaMike, and Derek. They are all plus defenders, high compete levels and all 3 can't shoot.

What is the max minutes that can be slotted for them in a perfect world?
Does that maybe mean there isn't room for all 3?

It is 2024 and I am evolving my thoughts about roster construction and am starting to think the floor of a guard you can have in the rotation (with exceptions for elite players) is to be like a Mulcahy who you can expect to make over 32-34% in a non volume role....again bare minimum. I think those 3 guards don't pass my test.

It depends on what your goal is for 2024-25.....if it is just to make the NCAAs, you can probably get by with JWill, Davis and Simpson and assume all 3 make some level of improvements across all categories.

If I am trying to win 20+ games and have a goal of winning 2 NCAA games and advancing to a Sweet 16, JWill is my 3rd guard off the bench and Simpson and Davis battle for 4th and 5th spots off the bench.

RU to have any legitimate credibility in this type of conference, needs to help or reduce the burden of Ace, Dylan and Lathan Sommerville. I would start all 3 freshman from Game 1, Day 1.

To supplement those 3, I would find another 6'4 to 6'5 2 way guard that can handle the ball and is a better version of JWill.

And I absolutely would look for a Yeboah 2.0 wing defender that can rebound at 6'7 to 6'9" and knock down 3s. There are plenty of kids who can fit that role. And that player "could be" a grad transfer, but I would also have a player that can be a teacher who helps Dylan Grant and Bryce Dortch off the court on how to study film and be a big brother that is willing to defer some minutes.

Anything less than that and I see no true path for success. It would be an enormous risk IMO, to ask or expect all 3 of Griffiths, Derek Simpson and JMike Davis to all take huge jumps in production. I believe a 2nd unit of JWill, Simpson or Davis, Griffiths and one of the other frosh forwards (Grant and Dortch) is a strong enough bench to play well.

 

[seansherm]

It depends on what your goal is for 2024-25.....if it is just to make the NCAAs, you can probably get by with JWill, Davis and Simpson and assume all 3 make some level of improvements across all categories.

If I am trying to win 20+ games and have a goal of winning 2 NCAA games and advancing to a Sweet 16, JWill is my 3rd guard off the bench and Simpson and Davis battle for 4th and 5th spots off the bench.

RU to have any legitimate credibility in this type of conference, needs to help or reduce the burden of Ace, Dylan and Lathan Sommerville. I would start all 3 freshman from Game 1, Day 1.

To supplement those 3, I would find another 6'4 to 6'5 2 way guard that can handle the ball and is a better version of JWill.

And I absolutely would look for a Yeboah 2.0 wing defender that can rebound at 6'7 to 6'9" and knock down 3s. There are plenty of kids who can fit that role. And that player "could be" a grad transfer, but I would also have a player that can be a teacher who helps Dylan Grant and Bryce Dortch off the court on how to study film and be a big brother that is willing to defer some minutes.

Anything less than that and I see no true path for success. It would be an enormous risk IMO, to ask or expect all 3 of Griffiths, Derek Simpson and JMike Davis to all take huge jumps in production. I believe a 2nd unit of JWill, Simpson or Davis, Griffiths and one of the other frosh forwards (Grant and Dortch) is a strong enough bench to play well.

Agree with almost all of this, well said.

 

[Doctorzit]

@NewJerseyHawk - I reran the numbers (above) excluding those with lower numbers of attempts.

We just don't have any shooters.

3PA
137 - Hyatt (.321)
80 - Griffiths (.250)
64 - Fernandes (.364.... .305 outside his one 5/5 outing)
63 - Simpson (.302)
49 - Mag (.245)
32 - Palmquist (.313)
27 - Davis (.259)

- Our most consistent shooter is Hyatt, and he's only hit .321 on the year (.297 career).
- Griffiths was supposed to be a shooter, but he hasn't shown it yet.
- Fernandes was a shooter at UMass, but other than one fantastic game hasn't shown it here.
- Simpson is much improved over last year, but is still just .302
- Mag's best season was .300 last year, and he shouldn't be taking as many as he does (2.9/game is way way too many - imo, that # should be <1.0). As much as I get on Simpson for taking too many in the 15-20ft range, Mag shouldn't be taking so many behind the arc.

And JWill is also not a shooter (career .265 on just 98 attempts across 3 seasons).

Harper/Bailey are going to come in next year expected to carry the burden from the arc, unless Griffiths can somehow put the pieces together going into next year or we can find a shooter in the portal.

If one looks at the 3 players with the highest 3 point shooting percentages, which one of them can get themselves open for a 3 point shot. In my opinion neither of them. That's why you need an offensive scheme that gets them open!!!!

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

NJH,

Going to be tough....Jwill doesn't want to be a 3rd guard so if you find a starting guard it would be unlikely he stays

Does Yeboah 2.0 exist that is willing to come knowing Ace and Dylan are here plus do we have the $?

JaMike and Simpson aren't sticking around to be 4th and 5th guards.

You answered my question exactly how I see it and with the answer I wanted with a preface to a perfect world.

It is going to be a very interesting offseason for all 350+ D1 schools.

No Mag in the lineup? 😃 Fair disclosure...I am in the process of changing my team name for fantasy hockey and baseball teams. The Mawot Mags needs a new name.

 

[goru7]

If I am defending RU and an opposing coaching staff, I know what an opponent can run against my players and what they cannot. I also could properly matchup, to prevent a favorable matchup from occurring.

In a slight example from yesterday, when Gavin Griffiths came into the game, Willard immediately countered with Jaime Kaiser (also arriving as a frosh with a shooters reputation and also struggling from 3 this year).....Willard is essentially willing to risk having Kaiser guard Griffiths (or vice versa).

In that case, Kaiser literally has one job....attach yourself to Gavin, because unless Gavin starts to drive to score, he becomes an easy person to defend. Kaiser from Maryland is less likely as the 5th option for Maryland to drive and score, that would be a win for RUs defense.

A good coaching staff can prevent pin downs and other set plays for shooters. What an opposing coach can't control are "unique" players.....players who can get to the basket, draw fouls and shoot, while being a "solid" defender.

RU fans need more complete basketball players on offense.....the number of complete offensive players in the Pike era are limited.....Geo, RHJ, Jacob Young, Yeboah, Sanders (when mid range or 3 is on) and my hopes for Gavin Griffiths developing into a respectable defender.

RU has survived based on having unique players, that are overwhelming or dominant in one or two categories, that it overrides their overall deficiencies.....

Myles Johnson, Caleb McConnell, Cam Spencer, Paul Mulcahy, Cliff Omoyuri, Montez Mathis fit this category in recent years. They were either dominant on the glass or defense or excellent in passing, driving and scoring or blocking/altering shots.

When we have players who have no defined or dominant strengths, it becomes a chess match on the staff to try and mix and match on a game to game basis. That's how I see the bulk of the rosters the last 2 seasons....either very unique players or players with no defined strengths to their game on either end of the court.

Except Maryland played zone a lot yesterday and Gavin was shaded by Geronimo and his length . We should have put a guard in the middle to dish it out to the wing against the zone. Bad job by Pike yesterday.
The problem I have with Gavin is that he sees his role too much as a 3 specialist. He is 6’ 8 inches and plays like he is 6’2. He can drive and elevate and hit a 10-15 foot shot in the lane and he chooses not to do it. Huge problem in his mindset right now. I would rather have him taking that 2 than Derek right now who has clanked too many of them. Gavin had to do more movement , cutting , driving and taking 2 point shots and most of all rebounding where he can really make a difference

 

[Scarlet Blind]

Why are we so bad shooting FT’s at home and that number is really lower because a bunch of those are front ends of one and ones

The FT shooting, home and road, is bizarre.

Total 365-546 66.8%

N Princeton 7-7, @ OSU 12-14, @ Purdue 17-20, @ MD 9-11
@ Minn 18-22, @ Iowa 15-19, N Miss St 11-14, @ Mich 13-17
@ Seton 12-16, @ Wake 8-11, @ Illinois 8-11, @ Mich St 8-13

Road total 138-175 78.9%
Home total 227-371 61.2%

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

NJH,

Going to be tough....Jwill doesn't want to be a 3rd guard so if you find a starting guard it would be unlikely he stays

Does Yeboah 2.0 exist that is willing to come knowing Ace and Dylan are here plus do we have the $?

JaMike and Simpson aren't sticking around to be 4th and 5th guards.

You answered my question exactly how I see it and with the answer I wanted with a preface to a perfect world.

It is going to be a very interesting offseason for all 350+ D1 schools.

No Mag in the lineup? 😃 Fair disclosure...I am in the process of changing my team name for fantasy hockey and baseball teams. The Mawot Mags needs a new name.

I don't think Simpson or Davis are flight risks.....JMike and Ace are close and Simpson has upside. My own goal was to invest into the youth, so we have some bench next year.

I don't see a good rebounding or shooting lineup if it's JWill and Dylan Harper AND either Simpson/Davis as starters.

I also don't think it's going to be very expensive at all, to find a quality wing player, they're literally everywhere in CBB. It doesn't mean the player is currently at Kentucky, but Penn State picked up 2 bench players from UNC in Puff Johnson and D'marco Dunn.....both are stop-gap kids who were Top 100 out of HS.....we need someone credible with some skills up front in Mags spot

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I hear you with JaMike. I don't agree with Simpson. I don't think it is logical for both sides to have him back.

There won't be enough minutes for him here and I think he would do better for himself getting a fresh start at a program that he would be a better fit.

 

[ScarletKid2008]

I think we all expected and hoped Gavin would’ve been a bright spot in shooting based on everything we knew about him prior to the season and his HS career. we knew the rest of the squad was already handicapped for shooting %

 

[RUtrumpet92]

JWill should start at G over Davis or Simpson. No way both will return if we bring in a portal guard to start over Williams. I expect Simpson most likely would be odd man out goven the Bailey/Davis connection. I'm not even sure Williams would return in that scenario.

But if the guards are Dylan and Jeremiah, I agree 3Pt is a problem unless the starting SF has range too. Bailey should have it as a stretch 4. Mag is NOT an outside shooting threat. I think a portal 3 like Yeboah is a higher need than a G that would push Williams to the bench or to the portal. He just does much more for spacing etc. than Davis or Simpson. I don't know that Gavin will br ready to start as the 3 next year, although hope springs eternal.

Will guys share the game? Will the chance to play with Dylan and Ace convince portal guys to take a shot on us even if someone else might offer them more $, as long as we make a competitive offer?

 

[seansherm]

JWill should start at G over Davis or Simpson. No way both will return if we bring in a portal guard to start over Williams. I expect Simpson most likely would be odd man out goven the Bailey/Davis connection. I'm not even sure Williams would return in that scenario.

But if the guards are Dylan and Jeremiah, I agree 3Pt is a problem unless the starting SF has range too. Bailey should have it as a stretch 4. Mag is NOT an outside shooting threat. I think a portal 3 like Yeboah is a higher need than a G that would push Williams to the bench or to the portal. He just does much more for spacing etc. than Davis or Simpson. I don't know that Gavin will br ready to start as the 3 next year, although hope springs eternal.

Will guys share the game? Will the chance to play with Dylan and Ace convince portal guys to take a shot on us even if someone else might offer them more $, as long as we make a competitive offer?

I see this guy's will want to play w Dylan and Ace a lot. Would they though? Two freshman, most guys probably only know if their names have been mentioned to them. Takes special, older players, to come want to be role players for a team that probably isn't competing for championships. Remember Yeboah was only a career 33% three point shooter, he drastically exceeded expectations, and was still just a better version of Hyatt.