We will be better on offense next year, an obvious GIVEN...how? and by how much? looking at data

[Greene Rice FIG]

Looking at last year.....
300th in adjusted offensive efficiency.

4 Offensive factors
1. effective FG% 43.5% 357th (broken down further below)
2. turnover % 16.6% 157th
3. OREB% 30.2% 124th
4. free throw rate 32.9% 170th

3pt% 28.7% 349th
2pt fg% 43.7% 354th
ft % 65.8% 343th (not embedded in efg%)

The majority of the improvement comes from 1 and to a lesser extent 4. I would think/hope we get to the line a lot more so that will help offense.

The big question I have for people.....what do we expect out 2 and 3 point fg% to be as a team AND what will Ace and Dylan be from 2 and 3.

What are your answers to the following questions as to your expectations
1. What % is Dylan going to shoot from 3?
2. What % is Ace going to shoot from 3?
3. What % are we going to shoot from 3 as a team?
4. What % is Dylan going to shoot from 2?
5. What % is Ace going to shoot from 2?
6. What % are we going to shoot from 2 as a team?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

As a point of reference...last year to be 50th ranked........
eFG% 53.5%
to% 14.9%
OREB 33.3%
FTR 38.1%

It is obvious that eFG% is the most important variable and it isn't close

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

We still have a few important spots to fill out. Your focused on offense but the thing is - seeing the direction we’re headed and watching Dylan the other day, I’m more optimistic about us fielding a D that’s in line with typical Pike defenses that I was previously. You could tell Dylan takes pride in defending and fights for every rebound. Ace missed some late assignments but he took immediate ownership for them in the huddle. Announcers spoke to it. These kids seem like they are coming in wanting to play D. We need a servicable center which is TBD.

Having said that - and going back to your original questions - I think the blueprint should be outperforming the deep 2019-20 team on offense (KenPom 72). Can we be top 50? That team shot 31% from 3. Hopefully we can at least match that. That team was 64.4% from the line and I’m not sure we’ll be much better than that as a team (have to see who our centers are) - but I do think we’ll get to the line more than that team did. I think we’ll be very good from 2 at the rim and in transition. That team shot 44.7% overall and I think 46% could be a reasonable goal for us depending on the overall breakdown of shot selection.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

2019-20 bart had us at 76

efg% 48.9% 207th
to% 17.9% 101st
OREB 32% 53rd
FTR 29.1% 264th

3- 30.8% 296th
2- 50.1% 139th
1- 64.5% 332rd

If we truly fancy us being a Top 20 and we arent going to be elite defensively we need to be Top 15 offense. That would mean offense/shooting at levels that are many levels better than what we are accustomed to.

 

[seansherm]

Looking at last year.....
300th in adjusted offensive efficiency.

4 Offensive factors
1. effective FG% 43.5% 357th (broken down further below)
2. turnover % 16.6% 157th
3. OREB% 30.2% 124th
4. free throw rate 32.9% 170th

3pt% 28.7% 349th
2pt fg% 43.7% 354th
ft % 65.8% 343th (not embedded in efg%)

The majority of the improvement comes from 1 and to a lesser extent 4. I would think/hope we get to the line a lot more so that will help offense.

The big question I have for people.....what do we expect out 2 and 3 point fg% to be as a team AND what will Ace and Dylan be from 2 and 3.

What are your answers to the following questions as to your expectations
1. What % is Dylan going to shoot from 3?
2. What % is Ace going to shoot from 3?
3. What % are we going to shoot from 3 as a team?
4. What % is Dylan going to shoot from 2?
5. What % is Ace going to shoot from 2?
6. What % are we going to shoot from 2 as a team?

My early, meaningless because roster not done, my expectations as of now are

E fg% 49%
Turnover % 17.2
O reb % 29
free throw rate 34.5%

1. Dylan will be around 34%
2. Ace will be around 31% on higher attempts than Dylan
3. Think team will be around 32% from 3
Not even guess the 2pt %'s

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Assuming our D is in the 30th area that would have us expected to be around .500. I think your numbers are realistic based on what we know so far.

eFG% HAS to be higher, non negotiable if we want to even think about the goals most have.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Based on my (guy name Will) research, the actual breakdown of the Four Factors in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons goes more like this:

• eFG%: 50% of raw efficiency; 53% of opponent-adjusted efficiency
• TO%: 25% raw; 24% opponent-adjusted
• OREB%: 19% raw; 17% opponent-adjusted
• FTR: 6% raw; 6% opponent-adjusted

The only piece that has remained almost entirely unchanged in the 17 years since Oliver published his work are turnovers, which have consistently remained 25% of the total pie. However, shooting is more important than it’s ever been, with one’s Free Throw Rate – the share of free throw attempts versus field goal attempts – less important than ever. It barely scratches its way to 6% of the pie in both raw and adjusted efficiency.

When it came to actual wins and losses, eFG% reigns even more supreme. Teams that win the eFG% battle win 81.5% of the time, which is a far cry from OREB% (62.1%), FTR (61.1%), and TO% (59.9%). Moreover, in games where teams won only one of the Four Factors, nothing came close to eFG%’s prominence in determining the final result:

• Only eFG%: 36.3% win rate
• Only TO%: 7.9% win rate
• Only OREB%: 6.3% win rate
• Only FTR: 1.5% win rate

If you aren’t winning the shooting battle consistently, you aren’t going to win many games. If you win the two most important factors, your odds of losing are pretty darn small. In 2020-21, 1,708 teams won both the eFG% and the TO% battle in a given game. Those teams went 1,602-106 (93.8%). No other combination of stats produced a win rate that extreme.

 

[seansherm]

Assuming our D is in the 30th area that would have us expected to be around .500. I think your numbers are realistic based on what we know so far.

eFG% HAS to be higher, non negotiable if we want to even think about the goals most have.

No doubt it has to be higher, but JWill isn't an Efg% guy, he was below 48% this year, wasn't he. Martini hopefully hits his threes at a decent rate again, but does it on very low volume. I don't expect the freshman to be highly efficient. JMike won't become a high Efg guy this year.. Acuff is a wildcard, if he get's back to a higher % of 3pt shots and can get back to mid 30's shooting it he can return to a decent number there.

I'd also challenge if we can keep the D that high, but after what Pike did this year with the defense, he deserves the expectation D will be there.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I have also come to the realization we are Top 30 as the floor on D. I am very worried about Ace's FG effeciency. I think it is a MUST we utilize his athleticism and get him easy baskets and have him less on the perimeter chucking up bad 3s.

 

[RUDivision]

This team will live in the mid range game. It will be interesting on how Pike envisions using the pieces he has. Still need a shooter at the 2 and a center. Hard to tell what the team will be until it’s finished being put together.

 

[fluoxetine]

eFG% 150%
TO% 0%
OR% divide by zero error
FTR 100%

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Would efg% also get the OR% error if FTR is 100%?

 

[fluoxetine]

Would efg% also get the OR% error if FTR is 100%?

No, because they are all and-1s on made threes.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

No, because they are all and-1s on made threes.

never thought about that....also you can get fouled off the ball.

Your numbers were what UCONN was in the 2nd half vs illinois

 

[RUChoppin]

Too many unknowns going into next year - we have less of an idea of what this team will look like than in any previous offseason.

Even our returning players have very few minutes on the banks (or even playing in a major conference):
Davis: 716 min, 31 games (14 starts)
Palmquist*: 648 min, 76 games (4 starts)
Williams: 322 min, 12 games (11 starts)
Ogbole: 81 min, 10 games (0 starts)

Looking at total career Div-I experience:
Acuff: 2986 min, 105 games (74 starts)
Williams: 1530 min, 50 games (48 starts)
Martini: 1335 min, 69 games (31 starts)
Davis: 716 min, 31 games (14 starts)
Palmquist*: 648 min, 76 games (4 starts)
Ogbole: 81 min, 10 games (0 starts)
Harper: n/a
Bailey: n/a
Sommerville: n/a
Dortch: n/a
Grant: n/a
TBD: n/a
TBD: n/a

*And no word yet on whether Palmquist will return or not

Definitely need an experienced center from the portal, and I'd like to see another experienced PF, too.

 

[seansherm]

This team will live in the mid range game. It will be interesting on how Pike envisions using the pieces he has. Still need a shooter at the 2 and a center. Hard to tell what the team will be until it’s finished being put together.

Which is a terrible place to live

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

This team will live in the mid range game. It will be interesting on how Pike envisions using the pieces he has. Still need a shooter at the 2 and a center. Hard to tell what the team will be until it’s finished being put together.

Why do you think that? I didn’t see Dylan or Ace taking many mid ranges.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I have also come to the realization we are Top 30 as the floor on D. I am very worried about Ace's FG effeciency. I think it is a MUST we utilize his athleticism and get him easy baskets and have him less on the perimeter chucking up bad 3s.

Oddly, watching them, I think there’s actually a chance we can remain a top 10 defense depending on the depth we add at center. And even still, Ogbole isn’t soft on D. He just needs to work in the off-season on getting the ball to a guard immediately after rebounding it.

I think I’d sign right now for a top 50 finish on offense. Just not sure what to make of where we’re at with the newcomers.

 

[RUDivision]

Why do you think that? I didn’t see Dylan or Ace taking many mid ranges.

Dylan and Ace will be given mid range shots and it will be harder for them to finish at the rim. They are both 3 level
Scorers who are smart to take the best shot . They will exploit defenses. The other two volume players Tyson and Jwill are mid range players.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Dylan and Ace will be given mid range shots and it will be harder for them to finish at the rim. They are both 3 level
Scorers who are smart to take the best shot . They will exploit defenses. The other two volume players Tyson and Jwill are mid range players.

I didn’t see many mid range shots in Tyson’s film at all. I’ve documented my concern with him - I see some resistance to drive the ball left, but he looks to get to the rim on the right side for sure. Jeremiah drives the ball too. Finishing wasn’t a problem for him either like Simpson and Davis.

 

[RUDivision]

I didn’t see many mid range shots in Tyson’s film at all. I’ve documented my concern with him - I see some resistance to drive the ball left, but he looks to get to the rim on the right side for sure. Jeremiah drives the ball too. Finishing wasn’t a problem for him either like Simpson and Davis.

Tyson was clearly dribble drive but your concerns are mine at the rim in big ten. Tyson will need to get more 8-15 footers next year to be effective or he learns to shoot the 3 again. My early lean is midrange. Jwill attacks but scored more from the midrange last year and effective btw.
I can be wrong but there is nothing wrong w mid range of your effective

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Tyson was clearly dribble drive but your concerns are mine at the rim in big ten. Tyson will need to get more 8-15 footers next year to be effective or he learns to shoot the 3 again. My early lean is midrange. Jwill attacks but scored more from the midrange last year and effective btw.
I can be wrong but there is nothing wrong w mid range of your effective

If Tyson can go left enough to keep a defender honest, he’ll be able to get to the rim considering the focus won’t be on him. J Williams finished drives at a high clip until defenses started focusing on him. They won’t be doing that next year.

 

[fluoxetine]

learns to shoot the 3 again.

My early lean is midrange.

 

[RutgersClassof2004]

Looking at last year.....
300th in adjusted offensive efficiency.

4 Offensive factors
1. effective FG% 43.5% 357th (broken down further below)
2. turnover % 16.6% 157th
3. OREB% 30.2% 124th
4. free throw rate 32.9% 170th

3pt% 28.7% 349th
2pt fg% 43.7% 354th
ft % 65.8% 343th (not embedded in efg%)

The majority of the improvement comes from 1 and to a lesser extent 4. I would think/hope we get to the line a lot more so that will help offense.

The big question I have for people.....what do we expect out 2 and 3 point fg% to be as a team AND what will Ace and Dylan be from 2 and 3.

What are your answers to the following questions as to your expectations
1. What % is Dylan going to shoot from 3?
2. What % is Ace going to shoot from 3?
3. What % are we going to shoot from 3 as a team?
4. What % is Dylan going to shoot from 2?
5. What % is Ace going to shoot from 2?
6. What % are we going to shoot from 2 as a team?

This is easy. Good offense.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Should i know who Tyson is?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

No one is biting giving me Ave and Dylan 3%!

 

[RUChoppin]

Should i know who Tyson is?

Yes, since he'll be one of our guards next year. :)

 

[Rufaninga]

Seen lots & lots of highlight reels of both players. So far they have yet to miss a shot.
So obviously gotta be near 100%

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Oddly, watching them, I think there’s actually a chance we can remain a top 10 defense depending on the depth we add at center. And even still, Ogbole isn’t soft on D. He just needs to work in the off-season on getting the ball to a guard immediately after rebounding it.

I think I’d sign right now for a top 50 finish on offense. Just not sure what to make of where we’re at with the newcomers.

This year may be a test of my hypothesis that Myles and Cliff shot blocking 5s has had a LOT to do with our defense the last 6 years. Not only were they rim protectors they both defended the high screen great.

If i am right and we dont get rim protectors at the 5 we may take a few steps back on D

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Yes, since he'll be one of our guards next year. :)

Duh. Can we please call him Acuff. Thats what i know him by.

 

[Rhuarc]

You need some comps to get somewhat accurate guesses. Who were the top 10-20 ranked recruits that got major minutes with similar styles and what were their numbers?

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

This year may be a test of my hypothesis that Myles and Cliff shot blocking 5s has had a LOT to do with our defense the last 6 years. Not only were they rim protectors they both defended the high screen great.

If i am right and we dont get rim protectors at the 5 we may take a few steps back on D

Maybe - but maybe not. If we were relying on Wolf I’d be more worried but I didn’t notice a material drop in rim protection with Ogbole per se. He has other issues for sure. He’s actually a strong rebounder in terms of body position but either travels with the ball or throws a bad pass with it often and he fouls too much. On offense he can’t handle passes for easy dunks and can’t dribble - definite limitations there. While I’m not sure he’ll make highlight reels on elite blocks I think he I’ll hold his own preventing easy baskets if he can stay on the court.

A simpler way of putting it? I think if we can get from the 5 position what we got in 2018-19 with redshirt sophomore MJ, Shaq Carter, and Shaq Doorson that would be good enough. MJ wasn’t a defensive star yet in his debut year. We need someone who can match his performance from that year and we’re fine.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You are right his blk numbers were not high as a freshman.

We were also only #50 on D

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

You are right his blk numbers were not high as a freshman.

We were also only #50 on D

Our D wasn’t great across the board that year breaking in the new kids - Caleb, Ron, etc. Caleb’s D looked nothing like it became that year.

I think we started out that season with defenders like Thiam and Kiss as starters. So there’s that too.