3 PT shooting....RU and rest of B1G....

[scarletrat]

The 2 type of players we need for next year are like Gary and Brice Williams both on Nebraska.

We need at least 1 or 2 consistent shooters who can space the floor.

 

[RUtrumpet92]

I am not predicting we will get a "Dylan and Ace" discount, but I am asking the question.

Let's say you are a transfer with one year to play. I can think of three motivations when choosing where to play:

1 - Improve your stock enough to be able to play professionally at a higher level (NBA, overseas, whatever)
2 - Earn as much NIL $ as you can in your last college season
3 - Make a run in the Big Dance

Maybe there is a 4th but it is probably a very small % of players: get the most you can academically out of that final scholarship year.

Clearly, guys motivated by #2 won't care about who else is on their roster. "Show me the money!" The staff should find out quickly if any of our would-be top targets are out of reach because of this, and move on.

For #3, having that high-end talent makes a Sweet 16 run a real possibility with improved shooting and a deeper bench. It's up to the staff to sell transfer targets on that vision and make it a reality.

 

[LotusAggressor]

Yep I say this all the time. People say we need an offense coach. Wrong, we have wide open 3s every game that get clanked. Cant draw up a better play than Wide Open 3. Feels like we shoot below 50% on these, it’s hold your breath. Meanwhile most of our opponents on Wide Open 3s shoot probably 90%, as any Power 5 basketball player would be expected to.

Pikiell is hopefully answering this issue with the recruiting class coming in, and has to do better in the transfer portal than he has so far at RU.

There are wide open threes every game by defensive design. Opponents are giving RU those shots because they know that this team has a lot of bad shooters.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I am not predicting we will get a "Dylan and Ace" discount, but I am asking the question.

Let's say you are a transfer with one year to play. I can think of three motivations when choosing where to play:

1 - Improve your stock enough to be able to play professionally at a higher level (NBA, overseas, whatever)
2 - Earn as much NIL $ as you can in your last college season
3 - Make a run in the Big Dance

Maybe there is a 4th but it is probably a very small % of players: get the most you can academically out of that final scholarship year.

Clearly, guys motivated by #2 won't care about who else is on their roster. "Show me the money!" The staff should find out quickly if any of our would-be top targets are out of reach because of this, and move on.

For #3, having that high-end talent makes a Sweet 16 run a real possibility with improved shooting and a deeper bench. It's up to the staff to sell transfer targets on that vision and make it a reality.

If i am a player and i take a look at Ace's HS games and the shots he takes I am not so sure I am that excited

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

If i am a player and i take a look at Ace's HS games and the shots he takes I am not so sure I am that excited

No transfer is coming here because they want to play with Dylan and Ace or any other recruit. That is fantasy talk. He’s missing the most important reason - straight up playing time. If we have it to advertise we’ll land a decent transfer. If not, we’ll get an Agee type. Nobody is transferring to sit on our bench and watch Dylan and Ace in the hope of a tournament run.

 

[fluoxetine]

To recap things because there's bad information that continues to circulate about the staff and an inability to "coach offense". It is an obvious item that coaching does not correct, it simply comes down to skill level, talent of the players and playing with players, who also can shoot, pass, score and playmake.

The fewer playmakers you have, the worse your shooting will be. Playmakers create drives to the basket, to then find shooters, with an ability to knock down 3 pointers. RU has a 3 point shooting issue, much more than anyone else in the B1G, by a LOT.

For seasons since 2017-18, here are the 3 PT% shooting percentages for the season.

2017-18 - 29.0%
2018-19 - 31.2%
2019-20- 31.0%
2020-21- 31.1 %
2021-22- 33.6%
2022-23- 31.8%
2023-24- 29.1%

Here's where it gets ugly for this current situation this year.

Of the 84 players who have relevant minutes each B1G game, 65 of those players shoot at least 30% from 3 PT range.....that means 19 players shoot under 30% from 3 for the season.

Here's the team breakdown of how many of the 19 players who shoot under 30% for each team.

Michigan State (0)
Nebraska (0)
Northwestern (0)
Michigan (1)
Indiana (1)
Minnesota (1)
Purdue (1)
Penn State (1)
Wisconsin (1)
Illinois (1)
Maryland (2)
Ohio State (2)
Iowa (3)
RUTGERS (5.....!!!)

The players who make up the 5 RU shooters under 30% from 3....

Mag 24.5% (12-49)
JWilliams 25% (3-12)
Griffiths 25% (20-80)
Davis 25.9% (7-27)
Cliff 20% (1-5)

The rest are also not far away, where a couple of misses from Oskar and Simpson, would push that number to SEVEN.....

Oskar -31.3% (10-32)
Simpson- 30.2% (19-63)
Hyatt 32.1% (44-137)
A Williams 35.7% (5-14)
Fernandes 35.9% (23-64)

I am only pointing out that RU could have 7 of the 21 potential players in all of the B1G, who play relevant minutes, under 30% from 3.

There's literally no amount of coaching, or offensive coaching, plays etc, that overcomes sub 30%, from the bulk of your rotation.

Can players improve in the last 4 games or B1G tournament?? Sure it's possible and probably more likely that they improve, vs getting worse. But once you add in FT at 61% at home but 78% on the road and it becomes a talent, skill issue, not a coaching issue.

This is interesting but I think it is a bit flawed to be including Cliff (and to some extent J. Williams) here. Cliff plays a lot of minutes but takes basically 0 threes per minute. His 3p% isn't relevant to anything. J. Williams 3p% is relevant but on a sample size of 12 it's kind of silly to take anything from it.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

is this a fact?

But once you add in FT at 61% at home but 78%

 

[fluoxetine]

is this a fact?

But once you add in FT at 61% at home but 78%

What?

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

This is interesting but I think it is a bit flawed to be including Cliff (and to some extent J. Williams) here. Cliff plays a lot of minutes but takes basically 0 threes per minute. His 3p% isn't relevant to anything. J. Williams 3p% is relevant but on a sample size of 12 it's kind of silly to take anything from it.

It’s relevant in the sense that he’s one of our 5 options to shoot the ball period (I.e. an eligible 3 point shooter). For all the heat Derek takes for chucking up shots - he is often our best 3 point shooter (percentage wise) on the court. That’s scary - but if we go with your reasoning of why we should take more 3s even though we suck at them (which actually might make sense seeing how badly we suck at 2s also) - Derek hoisting 3s might actually give us the best statistical chance of winning - that’s how bad we are at offense…

 

[RUsojo]

I am not predicting we will get a "Dylan and Ace" discount, but I am asking the question.

Let's say you are a transfer with one year to play. I can think of three motivations when choosing where to play:

1 - Improve your stock enough to be able to play professionally at a higher level (NBA, overseas, whatever)
2 - Earn as much NIL $ as you can in your last college season
3 - Make a run in the Big Dance

Maybe there is a 4th but it is probably a very small % of players: get the most you can academically out of that final scholarship year.

Clearly, guys motivated by #2 won't care about who else is on their roster. "Show me the money!" The staff should find out quickly if any of our would-be top targets are out of reach because of this, and move on.

For #3, having that high-end talent makes a Sweet 16 run a real possibility with improved shooting and a deeper bench. It's up to the staff to sell transfer targets on that vision and make it a reality.

The biggest obstacle to overcome is Pike.

He has to be willing first and foremost, to 1. Go after 2. Land a transfer at the 1-3/4 positions that he will actually play over Mag and Williams (and lesser extend Davis and Simpson).

He has shown no interest in going after players in the portal to replace guys who play 25 minutes and try hard on defense. This has been a theme of the last few years. If he’s not making 28ish minutes available then he’s not getting anyone in the portal to be excited about.

 

[RutgersChow]

To recap things because there's bad information that continues to circulate about the staff and an inability to "coach offense". It is an obvious item that coaching does not correct, it simply comes down to skill level, talent of the players and playing with players, who also can shoot, pass, score and playmake.

The fewer playmakers you have, the worse your shooting will be. Playmakers create drives to the basket, to then find shooters, with an ability to knock down 3 pointers. RU has a 3 point shooting issue, much more than anyone else in the B1G, by a LOT.

For seasons since 2017-18, here are the 3 PT% shooting percentages for the season.

2017-18 - 29.0%
2018-19 - 31.2%
2019-20- 31.0%
2020-21- 31.1 %
2021-22- 33.6%
2022-23- 31.8%
2023-24- 29.1%

Here's where it gets ugly for this current situation this year.

Of the 84 players who have relevant minutes each B1G game, 65 of those players shoot at least 30% from 3 PT range.....that means 19 players shoot under 30% from 3 for the season.

Here's the team breakdown of how many of the 19 players who shoot under 30% for each team.

Michigan State (0)
Nebraska (0)
Northwestern (0)
Michigan (1)
Indiana (1)
Minnesota (1)
Purdue (1)
Penn State (1)
Wisconsin (1)
Illinois (1)
Maryland (2)
Ohio State (2)
Iowa (3)
RUTGERS (5.....!!!)

The players who make up the 5 RU shooters under 30% from 3....

Mag 24.5% (12-49)
JWilliams 25% (3-12)
Griffiths 25% (20-80)
Davis 25.9% (7-27)
Cliff 20% (1-5)

The rest are also not far away, where a couple of misses from Oskar and Simpson, would push that number to SEVEN.....

Oskar -31.3% (10-32)
Simpson- 30.2% (19-63)
Hyatt 32.1% (44-137)
A Williams 35.7% (5-14)
Fernandes 35.9% (23-64)

I am only pointing out that RU could have 7 of the 21 potential players in all of the B1G, who play relevant minutes, under 30% from 3.

There's literally no amount of coaching, or offensive coaching, plays etc, that overcomes sub 30%, from the bulk of your rotation.

Can players improve in the last 4 games or B1G tournament?? Sure it's possible and probably more likely that they improve, vs getting worse. But once you add in FT at 61% at home but 78% on the road and it becomes a talent, skill issue, not a coaching issue.

On a pretty consistent basis kids arrive here as decent shooters and are worse when they leave.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

On a pretty consistent basis kids arrive here as decent shooters and are worse when they leave.

Most kids who earn D1 schollies are decent shooters in high school. I’m not sure what this means.

 

[fluoxetine]

Most kids who earn D1 schollies are decent shooters in high school. I’m not sure what this means.

It means Gary Waters is a better coach than Pike.

No idea what this re.. guy thinks is going on.. Pike is messing with their shooting mechanics??

 

[fluoxetine]

It’s relevant in the sense that he’s one of our 5 options to shoot the ball period (I.e. an eligible 3 point shooter). For all the heat Derek takes for chucking up shots - he is often our best 3 point shooter (percentage wise) on the court. That’s scary - but if we go with your reasoning of why we should take more 3s even though we suck at them (which actually might make sense seeing how badly we suck at 2s also) - Derek hoisting 3s might actually give us the best statistical chance of winning - that’s how bad we are at offense…

Derek would definitely be better served putting up threes than a fair number of his twos.

 

[NickRU714]

No transfer is coming here because they want to play with Dylan and Ace or any other recruit. That is fantasy talk. He’s missing the most important reason - straight up playing time. If we have it to advertise we’ll land a decent transfer. If not, we’ll get an Agee type. Nobody is transferring to sit on our bench and watch Dylan and Ace in the hope of a tournament run.

Exactly.
And if we get a transfer who will be competing for and playing significant minutes - that likely contributes to someone returning (Davis, JWill, Simpson, GG, Mag) now exploring transfer options for minutes.

Noah coming in with expectations to start and play significant minutes had to contribute to Paul (and maybe even Cam) leaving.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The biggest obstacle to overcome is Pike.

He has to be willing first and foremost, to 1. Go after 2. Land a transfer at the 1-3/4 positions that he will actually play over Mag and Williams (and lesser extend Davis and Simpson).

He has shown no interest in going after players in the portal to replace guys who play 25 minutes and try hard on defense. This has been a theme of the last few years. If he’s not making 28ish minutes available then he’s not getting anyone in the portal to be excited about.

#1 Dylan Harper is your 2 guard
#2 If you recruit over JWill there is no JWill. JWIll is your PG or he is in another program
#3 If you recruit over Mag there is no Mag.

This is 2024 it is VERY complicated. What Pike had to deal with 2023 offseason is going to be common place. Making calculated gambles and hope you get it right. The only roster givens are going to be the incoming freshman (right now I think we have 4 finalized)

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

It means Gary Waters is a better coach than Pike.

No idea what this re.. guy thinks is going on.. Pike is messing with their shooting mechanics??

playing offense with a heart rate 15-20 BPM faster than you are accustomed to playing can do that.

 

[seansherm]

Derek would definitely be better served putting up threes than a fair number of his twos.

Thank God someone else is saying it. I've had like three back and forth this week who want Derek to shoot more and better from the mid range.

 

[seansherm]

playing offense with a heart rate 15-20 BPM faster than you are accustomed to playing can do that.

This is so over rated. Playing tired (I used the term loosely for 20 yr olds) can actually be a good thing. It's slows things down and eliminates hyperness. I haven't looked at it closely, but doesn't this team make its runs usually in the 2nd half of games?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

This is so over rated. Playing tired (I used the term loosely for 20 yr olds) can actually be a good thing. It's slows things down and eliminates hyperness. I haven't looked at it closely, but doesn't this team make its runs usually in the 2nd half of games?

Go shoot in an empty gym and chuck up a bunch of FTs and 3s. Do some sprints and take some FTs and 3s and do more sprints and FTs and 3s.

Report back the difference in results.

 

[seansherm]

Go shoot in an empty gym and chuck up a bunch of FTs and 3s. Do some sprints and take some FTs and 3s and do more sprints and FTs and 3s.

Report back the difference in results.

I've been told for years I shoot better when I'm tired, I don't help your argument.

Watched the second season of Last Chance U recently. Coach practiced them so hard that they would come out in games and be like I'm not even sweating, games are easy. If the team is in shape, and rotates, (God knows Pike rotates) tiredness is not a factor w college kids.

 

[RutgersChow]

Most kids who earn D1 schollies are decent shooters in high school. I’m not sure what this means.

I think it means that being older and with better coaching they should probably be about same. Every one of Rutgers' players is worse, and in most cases much worse

It means Gary Waters is a better coach than Pike.

No idea what this re.. guy thinks is going on.. Pike is messing with their shooting mechanics??

Oh no, it's the insulter again. It means that Pike and staff don't improve shooting, simple as that.

 

[RUsojo]

#1 Dylan Harper is your 2 guard
#2 If you recruit over JWill there is no JWill. JWIll is your PG or he is in another program
#3 If you recruit over Mag there is no Mag.

This is 2024 it is VERY complicated. What Pike had to deal with 2023 offseason is going to be common place. Making calculated gambles and hope you get it right. The only roster givens are going to be the incoming freshman (right now I think we have 4 finalized)

This is what I’m saying. Pike has not wanted to recruit over core rotation guys. It’s hurt us. We’re about to finish 2nd to last in the league, you can upgrade.

We won’t get a significant portal if pike doesn’t want to replace these guys.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I think it means that being older and with better coaching they should probably be about same. Every one of Rutgers' players is worse, and in most cases much worse

Oh no, it's the insulter again. It means that Pike and staff don't improve shooting, simple as that.

Because shooting well in high school is exactly like shooting well in the BIG. Right

 

[seansherm]

This is what I’m saying. Pike has not wanted to recruit over core rotation guys. It’s hurt us. We’re about to finish 2nd to last in the league, you can upgrade.

We won’t get a significant portal if pike doesn’t want to replace these guys.

We won't get significant portal guys anyway, they will cost more than we can/want to lay out.

 

[RutgersChow]

No transfer is coming here because they want to play with Dylan and Ace or any other recruit. That is fantasy talk. He’s missing the most important reason - straight up playing time. If we have it to advertise we’ll land a decent transfer. If not, we’ll get an Agee type. Nobody is transferring to sit on our bench and watch Dylan and Ace in the hope of a tournament run.

Not sure I agree with that. A really good 5 man who plays for an upper middle major would jump at the chance to play with Ace and Dylan and maybe make the final eight or final four. Richie has also said, if I'm not mistaken, that a good transfer 5 would go for around $100,000. We can swing that.

 

[RUsojo]

We won't get significant portal guys anyway, they will cost more than we can/want to lay out.

You can lay out what you’re doing for Williams and mag and get better than Williams and mag.

When everyone takes a step back and looks at the quality of players in the landscape of CBB these guys are more than disposable.

 

[seansherm]

You can lay out what you’re doing for Williams and mag and get better than Williams and mag.

When everyone takes a step back and looks at the quality of players in the landscape of CBB these guys are more than disposable.

I agree they are very upgradeable, but not sure I agree you can get better for the same cost.

 

[RutgersChow]

Blocking shots, yes. Rebounds, yes. I'm not sure I want to watch Cliff fumbling entry passes and clanking hook (throw) shots off the bottom of the rim. Maybe we can't get a better athlete, but we can get better player

 

[Eagleton96]

What's the bad info you are referring to? I agree those numbers point to lack of skill players. Is it their fault that they lack skill or is it Pike's fault that those lack of skill players are on the roster? I think the answer is obvious.

Pike has had to make compromises in recruiting. Ideally you want athletic physical specimens with shooting touch. Pike has had to choose one or the other, and he has generally chosen athletes over shooters. It was a very good call as he was able to get the most out of those players.

Is Pike to blame for the below average recruiting relative tot he Big 10? No way. It's the program, the history, the reputation, the financial support, etc. No top coach was coming here. Once Pike laid the foundation riding his 2-3 star recruits, he built the program up and got us to the point where now have the #2 recruiting class in the country. He's been fantastic.

 

[Kbee3]

Blocking shots, yes. Rebounds, yes. I'm not sure I want to watch Cliff fumbling entry passes and clanking hook (throw) shots off the bottom of the rim. Maybe we can't get a better athlete, but we can get better player

You forgot passing out of the double team.

 

[Bobbydigital_83]

I could drop Omoyuri and Zed Key from Ohio State (3 of 9).

My point on Cliff is relevant because bringing him back next year is assuming he catches and converts the same passes that Simpson, Davis and JWill provide him.....is he going to properly pass that back to the guards or playmake and pivot, face the basket and make a cross court pass to an open shooter.....OR

Do we invest those minutes into Lathan Sommerville as the 5 and let his skill set and offensive game, help expand what we do on offense??

If Cliff isn't shooting from the perimeter, and isn't making plays with his post ups AND it's risky to ask him to playmake or pass out of the post, can RU be a good offensive team?? It only takes one player to disrupt the flow of an offense, if that player is not on the same wavelength or skill sets as the other 4.

Add in Mag to that equation and it becomes impossible (in my opinion) to be good on offense.....and there's no supporting that either player playmakes with shots, passes or plays to other players on the floor.

If we watch a team like Nebraska with Hoiberg, they are in Year 4 and their current center is not a defensive player.....he's a hybrid player who can pivot, pass, drive to either hand and has a space up shot from out to 15 to 17 feet. Mast for Nebraska has the same skill sets that Lathan Sommerville has. I think Sommerville is extremely gifted and has range.

If fans saw Sommerville highlights from his game at the RAC in late December, he had range out to the wing/3 point line AND some post up moves in the paint.

There are fans petrified of changes or going with different players or younger players. While this year is very frustrating in a lot of ways, it was really necessary to start this process now in 2023-24. Some fans are scared of losing Mag and lesser extent Cliff. If Cliff wants to return, you take that and run with it and move forward.....I think Cliff as the 4th or 5th option on the floor, just to rebound and defend, works for me.

But it requires upgrades at Mag spot, that position requires wing and 3 point shooting. I can't expect Dylan and Ace to overcome or carry Mag and lesser extent Cliff on offense next year.

What makes you think we could rely on Somerville and he doesn’t performer like Gavin? I think the Defense Mag gives (if healthy) is worth it, provided he’s the 4th or 5th option on Offense