A Better NET

[fluoxetine]

@Loyal_2RU @SkilletHead2

I created what is basically a Bradley-Terry model (+ home court advantage) with a ballast component that assumes a "draw" in a game against an average opponent with a weight of 0.075 of a normal game. (This was chosen by seeing what made the post Conference Tournament model outputs most predictive of the postseason results for the last 10 years).

Pros:
- Only wins and losses matter
- A win cannot hurt you and a loss cannot help you
- Includes a HCA component, which is calculated from the data and non-arbitrary
- I made it
- The ballast component solves the issue of undefeated/winless teams having ratings that go to infinity/-infinity
- Fully accounts for SOS

Ratings are on the standard elo chess scale (1500 is average, 400 is one SD of performance)

Here is what the rankings would look like for the Big Ten after the date of every RU game this year (taking early season with the usual large grain of salt):

--
Nov 10 / Rutgers W vs Lehigh

1. #22 Wisconsin (1-0)
1. #22 Northwestern (1-0)
1. #22 Minnesota (1-0)
1. #22 Indiana (1-0)
1. #22 Purdue (1-0)
1. #22 Ohio St (1-0)
1. #22 Maryland (1-0)
1. #22 Iowa (1-0)
1. #22 Illinois (1-0)
1. #22 Rutgers (1-0)
1. #22 Penn St (1-0)
1. #22 Michigan (1-0)
13. #248 Michigan St (0-1)
14. #251 Nebraska (0-1)

--
Nov 13 / Rutgers W vs Merrimack

1. #3 Indiana (2-0)
2. #5 Penn St (1-0)
3. #15 Rutgers (2-0)
4. #21 Maryland (3-0)
5. #50 Purdue (2-0)
6. #58 Minnesota (2-0)
7. #60 Iowa (2-0)
8. #62 Ohio St (2-0)
9. #67 Michigan (2-0)
10. #68 Northwestern (2-0)
11. #83 Illinois (2-0)
12. #131 Wisconsin (2-0)
13. #165 Michigan St (1-1)
14. #172 Nebraska (1-1)

--
Nov 16 / Rutgers W vs NJIT

1. #11 Minnesota (3-0)
2. #13 Indiana (2-0)
3. #22 Iowa (3-0)
4. #33 Rutgers (3-0)
5. #39 Maryland (3-0)
6. #62 Purdue (3-0)
7. #65 Michigan (2-1)
8. #80 Ohio St (3-0)
9. #92 Northwestern (3-0)
10. #129 Penn St (1-1)
11. #145 Illinois (2-1)
12. #164 Michigan St (1-1)
13. #172 Wisconsin (2-1)
14. #220 Nebraska (1-2)

--
Nov 18 / Rutgers L at DePaul

1. #4 Minnesota (3-0)
2. #8 Purdue (3-0)
3. #11 Iowa (4-0)
4. #44 Indiana (3-0)
5. #49 Michigan St (2-1)
6. #62 Michigan (2-1)
7. #81 Northwestern (4-0)
8. #84 Maryland (3-1)
9. #123 Ohio St (3-1)
10. #126 Rutgers (3-1)
11. #128 Illinois (2-1)
12. #140 Penn St (2-1)
13. #155 Wisconsin (2-1)
14. #266 Nebraska (1-2)

--
Nov 22 / Rutgers L vs Lafayette

1. #10 Ohio St (4-1)
2. #15 Minnesota (4-0)
3. #22 Purdue (5-0)
4. #27 Iowa (5-0)
5. #49 Indiana (4-0)
6. #50 Wisconsin (3-1)
7. #57 Michigan (3-2)
8. #95 Illinois (2-2)
9. #98 Michigan St (3-1)
10. #108 Northwestern (4-1)
11. #109 Nebraska (3-2)
12. #129 Maryland (4-1)
13. #152 Penn St (3-1)
14. #324 Rutgers (3-2)

--
Nov 27 / Rutgers L at Massachusetts

1. #10 Purdue (6-0)
2. #15 Ohio St (4-2)
3. #25 Indiana (6-0)
4. #29 Minnesota (5-0)
5. #37 Wisconsin (5-1)
6. #51 Michigan (4-2)
7. #53 Iowa (6-0)
8. #66 Michigan St (5-2)
9. #67 Northwestern (5-1)
10. #93 Illinois (4-2)
11. #94 Nebraska (5-2)
12. #127 Maryland (5-2)
13. #146 Penn St (4-2)
14. #273 Rutgers (3-3)

--
Nov 30 / Rutgers W vs Clemson

1. #4 Ohio St (5-2)
2. #8 Purdue (7-0)
3. #17 Iowa (7-0)
4. #24 Minnesota (6-0)
5. #28 Michigan (4-2)
6. #33 Wisconsin (5-1)
7. #41 Michigan St (5-2)
8. #79 Illinois (5-2)
9. #90 Northwestern (5-2)
10. #95 Indiana (6-1)
11. #119 Penn St (4-2)
12. #135 Nebraska (5-2)
13. #139 Maryland (5-2)
14. #184 Rutgers (4-3)

--
Dec 3 / Rutgers L at Illinois

1. #2 Purdue (8-0)
2. #11 Ohio St (5-2)
3. #12 Iowa (7-1)
4. #19 Wisconsin (6-1)
5. #27 Michigan St (6-2)
6. #34 Minnesota (6-0)
7. #67 Michigan (4-3)
8. #68 Northwestern (5-2)
9. #84 Illinois (6-2)
10. #106 Maryland (5-3)
11. #109 Indiana (6-1)
12. #143 Nebraska (5-3)
13. #171 Penn St (4-3)
14. #216 Rutgers (4-4)

--
Dec 9 / Rutgers W vs Purdue

1. #10 Wisconsin (8-1, 1-0)
2. #13 Michigan St (8-2, 1-0)
3. #17 Ohio St (7-2, 1-0)
4. #31 Minnesota (7-1, 0-1)
5. #33 Purdue (8-1, 1-1)
6. #37 Illinois (7-2, 2-0)
7. #40 Northwestern (6-2, 1-0)
8. #53 Michigan (6-3, 1-0)
9. #63 Indiana (7-2, 1-1)
10. #68 Iowa (7-3, 0-2)
11. #120 Penn St (5-4, 0-1)
12. #123 Maryland (5-4, 0-1)
13. #132 Rutgers (5-4, 1-1)
14. #181 Nebraska (5-5, 0-2)

--
Dec 12 / Rutgers L at Seton Hall

1. #11 Michigan St (9-2, 2-0)
2. #12 Ohio St (8-2, 2-0)
3. #15 Wisconsin (8-2, 1-1)
4. #20 Minnesota (8-1, 1-1)
5. #29 Purdue (9-1, 1-1)
6. #42 Northwestern (7-2, 1-0)
7. #47 Illinois (7-3, 2-0)
8. #48 Michigan (6-4, 1-1)
9. #63 Indiana (8-2, 1-1)
10. #74 Iowa (7-3, 0-2)
11. #101 Maryland (6-4, 0-1)
12. #124 Penn St (5-5, 0-2)
13. #142 Rutgers (5-5, 1-1)
14. #171 Nebraska (5-6, 0-2)

--
Dec 30 / Rutgers W vs Maine

1. #5 Michigan St (11-2, 2-0)
2. #11 Minnesota (10-1, 1-1)
3. #13 Wisconsin (10-2, 1-1)
4. #14 Ohio St (8-2, 2-0)
5. #20 Purdue (12-1, 1-1)
6. #49 Illinois (9-3, 2-0)
7. #52 Iowa (10-3, 0-2)
8. #53 Michigan (7-5, 1-1)
9. #54 Northwestern (7-2, 1-0)
10. #60 Indiana (10-2, 1-1)
11. #87 Maryland (8-4, 0-1)
12. #100 Penn St (5-5, 0-2)
13. #133 Rutgers (6-5, 1-1)
14. #197 Nebraska (6-7, 0-2)

--
Jan 1 / Rutgers W vs Central Connecticut

1. #5 Michigan St (11-2, 2-0)
2. #13 Minnesota (10-1, 1-1)
3. #14 Wisconsin (10-2, 1-1)
4. #15 Ohio St (8-2, 2-0)
5. #17 Purdue (12-1, 1-1)
6. #51 Illinois (9-3, 2-0)
7. #52 Iowa (10-3, 0-2)
8. #54 Michigan (7-5, 1-1)
9. #58 Indiana (10-2, 1-1)
10. #60 Northwestern (7-2, 1-0)
11. #87 Maryland (8-4, 0-1)
12. #95 Penn St (5-5, 0-2)
13. #129 Rutgers (7-5, 1-1)
14. #209 Nebraska (6-7, 0-2)

--
Jan 4 / Rutgers W vs Michigan

1. #5 Michigan St (12-2, 3-0)
2. #12 Wisconsin (11-2, 2-1)
3. #13 Ohio St (9-2, 3-0)
4. #20 Purdue (12-2, 1-2)
5. #31 Minnesota (10-2, 1-2)
6. #35 Illinois (10-3, 3-0)
7. #41 Iowa (11-3, 1-2)
8. #63 Northwestern (7-3, 1-1)
9. #71 Penn St (6-5, 1-2)
10. #72 Indiana (10-3, 1-2)
11. #73 Michigan (7-6, 1-2)
12. #91 Rutgers (8-5, 2-1)
13. #100 Maryland (8-5, 0-2)
14. #198 Nebraska (6-8, 0-3)

--
Jan 8 / Rutgers W vs Nebraska

1. #5 Michigan St (13-2, 4-0)
2. #7 Wisconsin (12-2, 3-1)
3. #15 Purdue (13-2, 2-2)
4. #22 Ohio St (9-3, 3-1)
5. #29 Minnesota (10-2, 1-2)
6. #34 Illinois (11-3, 4-0)
7. #46 Iowa (11-4, 1-3)
8. #48 Indiana (11-3, 2-2)
9. #61 Penn St (7-6, 2-3)
10. #76 Michigan (7-6, 1-2)
11. #90 Northwestern (7-4, 1-2)
12. #95 Rutgers (9-5, 3-1)
13. #105 Maryland (8-6, 0-3)
14. #199 Nebraska (6-10, 0-5)

--
Jan 11 / Rutgers L at Penn St.

1. #4 Michigan St (13-2, 4-0)
2. #5 Wisconsin (13-2, 4-1)
3. #16 Purdue (13-2, 2-2)
4. #19 Ohio St (10-3, 4-1)
5. #35 Illinois (12-3, 5-0)
6. #36 Indiana (12-3, 3-2)
7. #42 Minnesota (10-3, 1-3)
8. #49 Iowa (11-4, 1-3)
9. #56 Penn St (8-6, 3-3)
10. #79 Michigan (7-6, 1-2)
11. #90 Northwestern (7-5, 1-3)
12. #101 Rutgers (9-6, 3-2)
13. #110 Maryland (8-7, 0-4)
14. #203 Nebraska (6-11, 0-6)

--
Jan 15 / Rutgers W at Maryland

1. #2 Wisconsin (14-2, 5-1)
2. #9 Michigan St (14-3, 5-1)
3. #11 Purdue (14-2, 3-2)
4. #22 Ohio St (10-4, 4-2)
5. #27 Illinois (13-3, 6-0)
6. #40 Iowa (12-4, 2-3)
7. #44 Minnesota (10-4, 1-4)
8. #45 Indiana (12-4, 3-3)
9. #62 Penn St (8-6, 3-3)
10. #79 Northwestern (8-6, 2-4)
11. #84 Michigan (7-7, 1-3)
12. #96 Rutgers (10-6, 4-2)
13. #101 Maryland (9-8, 1-5)
14. #189 Nebraska (6-12, 0-7)

--
Jan 19 / Rutgers W vs Iowa

1. #2 Wisconsin (15-2, 6-1)
2. #7 Purdue (15-2, 4-2)
3. #8 Michigan St (14-3, 5-1)
4. #20 Ohio St (12-4, 5-2)
5. #28 Illinois (13-4, 6-1)
6. #44 Iowa (13-5, 3-4)
7. #46 Indiana (13-4, 4-3)
8. #54 Minnesota (10-5, 1-5)
9. #62 Penn St (8-7, 3-4)
10. #78 Rutgers (11-6, 5-2)
11. #79 Michigan (8-7, 2-3)
12. #83 Northwestern (8-7, 2-5)
13. #104 Maryland (9-9, 1-6)
14. #191 Nebraska (6-13, 0-8)

--
Jan 22 / Rutgers L at Minnesota

1. #4 Wisconsin (15-3, 6-2)
2. #7 Michigan St (15-3, 6-1)
3. #16 Purdue (15-3, 4-3)
4. #19 Ohio St (12-4, 5-2)
5. #35 Indiana (14-4, 5-3)
6. #38 Illinois (13-5, 6-2)
7. #40 Iowa (14-5, 4-4)
8. #48 Minnesota (11-5, 2-5)
9. #67 Penn St (8-8, 3-5)
10. #77 Michigan (8-7, 2-3)
11. #79 Northwestern (8-7, 2-5)
12. #81 Rutgers (11-7, 5-3)
13. #91 Maryland (10-9, 2-6)
14. #183 Nebraska (6-13, 0-8)

--
Jan 25 / Rutgers L vs Maryland

1. #5 Wisconsin (15-3, 6-2)
2. #11 Michigan St (15-4, 6-2)
3. #15 Purdue (16-3, 5-3)
4. #20 Ohio St (12-4, 5-2)
5. #28 Illinois (14-5, 7-2)
6. #38 Iowa (14-5, 4-4)
7. #44 Indiana (14-5, 5-4)
8. #49 Minnesota (11-5, 2-5)
9. #68 Michigan (9-7, 3-3)
10. #72 Penn St (8-8, 3-5)
11. #82 Northwestern (8-8, 2-6)
12. #85 Maryland (11-9, 3-6)
13. #91 Rutgers (11-8, 5-4)
14. #177 Nebraska (6-13, 0-8)

--
Jan 29 / Rutgers W at Nebraska

1. #3 Wisconsin (16-3, 7-2)
2. #9 Michigan St (16-4, 7-2)
3. #11 Purdue (17-3, 6-3)
4. #18 Ohio St (13-4, 6-2)
5. #25 Illinois (15-5, 8-2)
6. #35 Indiana (16-5, 7-4)
7. #39 Iowa (14-6, 4-5)
8. #48 Minnesota (11-6, 2-6)
9. #67 Michigan (10-8, 4-4)
10. #76 Penn St (8-9, 3-6)
11. #88 Maryland (11-10, 3-7)
12. #92 Rutgers (12-8, 6-4)
13. #98 Northwestern (8-10, 2-8)
14. #193 Nebraska (6-15, 0-10)

--
Feb 1 / Rutgers L at Northwestern

1. #3 Wisconsin (17-3, 8-2)
2. #9 Purdue (18-3, 7-3)
3. #11 Michigan St (17-4, 8-2)
4. #18 Ohio St (13-5, 6-3)
5. #25 Illinois (15-5, 8-2)
6. #33 Indiana (16-5, 7-4)
7. #44 Iowa (14-7, 4-6)
8. #52 Minnesota (11-7, 2-7)
9. #64 Michigan (11-8, 5-4)
10. #68 Penn St (9-9, 4-6)
11. #87 Northwestern (9-10, 3-8)
12. #92 Maryland (11-11, 3-8)
13. #101 Rutgers (12-9, 6-5)
14. #198 Nebraska (6-16, 0-11)

--
Feb 5 / Rutgers W vs Michigan St.

1. #6 Wisconsin (18-4, 9-3)
2. #7 Purdue (20-3, 9-3)
3. #16 Illinois (17-5, 8-3)
4. #17 Michigan St (17-5, 8-3)
5. #18 Ohio St (13-5, 6-3)
6. #36 Indiana (16-6, 7-5)
7. #40 Iowa (14-7, 4-6)
8. #55 Minnesota (11-8, 2-8)
9. #63 Michigan (11-9, 5-5)
10. #69 Penn St (9-10, 4-7)
11. #82 Northwestern (10-10, 4-8)
12. #83 Rutgers (13-9, 7-5)
13. #91 Maryland (11-11, 3-8)
14. #198 Nebraska (6-17, 0-12)

--
Feb 9 / Rutgers W vs Ohio St.

1. #4 Wisconsin (19-4, 10-3)
2. #6 Purdue (21-3, 10-3)
3. #15 Illinois (17-6, 10-3)
4. #19 Michigan St (17-6, 8-4)
5. #25 Ohio St (14-6, 7-4)
6. #38 Iowa (15-7, 5-6)
7. #42 Indiana (16-7, 7-6)
8. #55 Michigan (12-9, 6-5)
9. #70 Northwestern (11-10, 5-8)
10. #72 Rutgers (14-9, 8-5)
11. #77 Minnesota (11-10, 2-10)
12. #79 Penn St (9-11, 4-8)
13. #90 Maryland (11-12, 3-9)
14. #176 Nebraska (7-17, 1-12)

--
Feb 12 / Rutgers W at Wisconsin

1. #8 Wisconsin (19-5, 10-4)
2. #9 Purdue (21-4, 10-4)
3. #15 Illinois (17-6, 10-3)
4. #17 Michigan St (18-6, 9-4)
5. #25 Ohio St (15-6, 8-4)
6. #36 Iowa (16-7, 6-6)
7. #46 Indiana (16-8, 7-7)
8. #49 Michigan (13-10, 7-6)
9. #57 Rutgers (15-9, 9-5)
10. #67 Minnesota (12-10, 3-10)
11. #73 Northwestern (11-10, 5-8)
12. #87 Penn St (9-12, 4-9)
13. #91 Maryland (11-13, 3-10)
14. #174 Nebraska (7-17, 1-12)

--
Feb 16 / Rutgers W vs Illinois

1. #7 Purdue (23-4, 12-4)
2. #10 Wisconsin (20-5, 11-4)
3. #20 Illinois (18-7, 11-4)
4. #21 Ohio St (16-6, 9-4)
5. #22 Michigan St (18-7, 9-5)
6. #35 Iowa (17-7, 7-6)
7. #46 Indiana (16-9, 7-8)
8. #47 Michigan (13-10, 7-6)
9. #50 Rutgers (16-9, 10-5)
10. #72 Minnesota (12-11, 3-11)
11. #74 Penn St (10-12, 5-9)
12. #78 Northwestern (11-12, 5-10)
13. #91 Maryland (11-14, 3-11)
14. #173 Nebraska (7-18, 1-13)

--
Feb 20 / Rutgers L at Purdue

1. #7 Purdue (24-4, 13-4)
2. #9 Wisconsin (21-5, 12-4)
3. #16 Illinois (19-7, 12-4)
4. #23 Ohio St (16-7, 9-5)
5. #25 Michigan St (18-8, 9-6)
6. #34 Iowa (18-8, 8-7)
7. #40 Michigan (14-11, 8-7)
8. #44 Indiana (16-9, 7-8)
9. #50 Rutgers (16-10, 10-6)
10. #69 Minnesota (13-12, 4-12)
11. #70 Penn St (11-12, 6-9)
12. #80 Northwestern (11-13, 5-11)
13. #87 Maryland (12-14, 4-11)
14. #179 Nebraska (7-19, 1-14)

--
Feb 23 / Rutgers L at Michigan

1. #8 Purdue (24-4, 13-4)
2. #9 Wisconsin (22-5, 13-4)
3. #16 Illinois (19-7, 12-4)
4. #22 Ohio St (17-7, 10-5)
5. #31 Michigan St (18-9, 9-7)
6. #33 Iowa (19-8, 9-7)
7. #39 Michigan (15-11, 9-7)
8. #47 Indiana (16-10, 7-9)
9. #53 Rutgers (16-11, 10-7)
10. #71 Minnesota (13-13, 4-13)
11. #77 Penn St (11-13, 6-10)
12. #82 Northwestern (12-13, 6-11)
13. #83 Maryland (13-14, 5-11)
14. #183 Nebraska (7-20, 1-15)

 

[RUsojo]

Only wins and losses mattering is a con not a pro.

Thanks for sharing, interesting stuff.

 

[fluoxetine]

Only wins and losses mattering is a con not a pro.

Thanks for sharing, interesting stuff.

For tournament selection? You think so?

 

[fluoxetine]

Current Rankings (Thru 2/24):

HFA is 25.877731490443633 rating points.

#1 Arizona [25-2] - 2280.43
#2 Gonzaga [24-2] - 2275.08
#3 Providence [23-3] - 2258.15
#4 Kansas [23-4] - 2237.19
#5 Auburn [25-3] - 2220.87
#6 Baylor [23-5] - 2196.79
#7 Texas Tech [22-6] - 2196.63
#8 Purdue [24-4] - 2181.35
#9 Wisconsin [22-5] - 2178.72
#10 Kentucky [23-5] - 2159.39
#11 Villanova [21-7] - 2141.38
#12 Duke [24-4] - 2112.19
#13 Tennessee [20-7] - 2096.93
#14 Connecticut [20-7] - 2096.83
#15 UCLA [20-6] - 2080.34
#16 Texas [20-8] - 2068.97
#17 Murray St [24-2] - 2062.15
#18 Colorado St [21-4] - 2059.53
#19 Ohio St [18-7] - 2057.71
#20 USC [24-4] - 2054.74
#21 Houston [23-4] - 2052.15
#22 Illinois [19-8] - 2044.25
#23 Marquette [17-10] - 2033.05
#24 Iowa St [19-9] - 2029.63
#25 Arkansas [22-6] - 2015.12
#26 Alabama [18-10] - 2009.34
#27 St Mary's CA [22-6] - 2006.36
#28 Seton Hall [16-9] - 2006.31
#29 Xavier [17-10] - 2003.38
#30 Creighton [19-8] - 2002.89
#31 Wyoming [21-5] - 1997.20
#32 Michigan St [18-9] - 1993.61
#33 Iowa [19-8] - 1976.41
#34 LSU [19-9] - 1974.95
#35 Boise St [21-6] - 1963.90
#36 Davidson [22-4] - 1959.41
#37 TCU [17-9] - 1953.71
#38 San Diego St [17-7] - 1937.34
#39 Michigan [15-11] - 1928.75
#40 North Carolina [20-8] - 1914.49
#41 San Francisco [21-8] - 1912.80
#42 North Texas [19-4] - 1908.14
#43 Miami FL [20-8] - 1898.34
#44 Notre Dame [19-8] - 1898.27
#45 Indiana [17-10] - 1897.36
#46 Oklahoma [14-14] - 1887.78
#47 Oregon [17-10] - 1886.20
#48 New Mexico St [20-4] - 1883.47
#49 Wake Forest [21-8] - 1881.51
#50 Kansas St [14-13] - 1881.28
#51 SMU [20-6] - 1880.01
#52 VCU [19-7] - 1875.85
#53 West Virginia [14-14] - 1868.05
#54 BYU [18-9] - 1866.09
#55 Florida [17-11] - 1865.73
#56 Rutgers [16-11] - 1864.04
#57 St John's [15-12] - 1858.95
#58 South Carolina [16-10] - 1846.65
#59 S Dakota St [24-4] - 1845.00
#60 St Bonaventure [18-7] - 1843.77
#61 Iona [22-5] - 1840.03
#62 Oklahoma St [13-14] - 1835.96
#63 Belmont [23-6] - 1835.90
#64 Memphis [16-9] - 1834.54
#65 Loyola-Chicago [21-6] - 1832.07
#66 Texas A&M [16-11] - 1829.37
#67 Mississippi St [16-12] - 1826.23
#68 Stanford [15-12] - 1825.74
#69 Colorado [18-10] - 1820.37
#70 UCF [17-9] - 1812.64
#71 Minnesota [13-13] - 1811.64
#72 Virginia [17-11] - 1807.06
#73 Santa Clara [19-10] - 1805.82
#74 Vanderbilt [14-13] - 1802.46
#75 Butler [11-16] - 1798.85
#76 Dayton [20-8] - 1795.96
#77 Penn St [11-13] - 1790.58
#78 St Louis [18-9] - 1785.58
#79 Ohio [22-5] - 1780.97
#80 UNLV [16-11] - 1780.07
#81 Virginia Tech [17-11] - 1778.68
#82 Northwestern [12-13] - 1773.39
#83 DePaul [13-14] - 1771.02
#84 Washington St [15-12] - 1769.07
#85 UAB [19-7] - 1761.44
#86 Maryland [13-15] - 1759.48
#87 Utah St [15-13] - 1756.26
#88 Chattanooga [21-7] - 1753.90
#89 Arizona St [11-16] - 1746.91
#90 Fresno St [16-10] - 1746.62
#91 Towson [22-7] - 1740.04
#92 Temple [15-10] - 1734.34
#93 Toledo [21-6] - 1731.68
#94 Mississippi [13-15] - 1728.28
#95 Wichita St [13-11] - 1727.98
#96 Syracuse [15-13] - 1727.39
#97 Florida St [14-13] - 1727.14
#98 Washington [13-13] - 1721.46
#99 Richmond [18-10] - 1717.85
#100 MTSU [19-7] - 1717.34
#101 Cincinnati [16-11] - 1697.04
#102 Texas St [17-6] - 1694.69
#103 Louisiana Tech [17-7] - 1693.02
#104 Grand Canyon [17-7] - 1692.42
#105 Clemson [13-15] - 1686.78
#106 Missouri St [20-9] - 1685.22
#107 Vermont [22-5] - 1682.36
#108 Nevada [12-14] - 1678.95
#109 Hofstra [17-10] - 1674.26
#110 Drake [19-9] - 1668.50
#111 Princeton [17-5] - 1666.93
#112 Utah Valley [16-9] - 1652.51
#113 Seattle [19-8] - 1650.56
#114 SF Austin [15-8] - 1649.97
#115 Missouri [9-18] - 1649.41
#116 Louisville [12-15] - 1648.85
#117 Furman [18-11] - 1643.80
#118 Monmouth NJ [18-9] - 1638.89
#119 Northern Iowa [16-10] - 1632.16
#120 Montana St [19-6] - 1629.01
#121 Tulane [12-12] - 1626.09
#122 Samford [17-9] - 1622.35
#123 UC Irvine [11-8] - 1617.38
#124 Morehead St [18-9] - 1614.92
#125 UNC Wilmington [18-8] - 1613.86
#126 Kent [16-9] - 1612.86
#127 Utah [11-17] - 1611.58
#128 WKU [15-11] - 1605.77
#129 Long Beach St [14-10] - 1605.55
#130 Buffalo [16-8] - 1602.83
#131 Delaware [18-10] - 1600.33
#132 Wagner [18-4] - 1599.15
#133 California [11-17] - 1598.67
#134 Winthrop [17-8] - 1597.89
#135 East Carolina [14-13] - 1592.79
#136 CS Fullerton [15-8] - 1589.79
#137 George Mason [13-13] - 1589.38
#138 Pittsburgh [11-18] - 1588.63
#139 Troy [16-9] - 1583.04
#140 Charlotte [15-12] - 1581.41
#141 Appalachian St [15-12] - 1579.44
#142 N Dakota St [18-9] - 1571.51
#143 Abilene Chr [14-8] - 1570.04
#144 Wofford [15-12] - 1567.49
#145 UNC Greensboro [16-12] - 1566.52
#146 Yale [15-10] - 1565.98
#147 New Mexico [9-17] - 1562.98
#148 South Alabama [14-10] - 1559.57
#149 Col Charleston [16-12] - 1558.45
#150 Liberty [17-10] - 1557.58
#151 UC Riverside [13-9] - 1554.19
#152 NC State [11-17] - 1554.18
#153 UTEP [14-11] - 1553.75
#154 Georgia Tech [10-17] - 1553.12
#155 Boston College [11-16] - 1542.20
#156 Jacksonville St [17-9] - 1539.15
#157 Portland [15-12] - 1536.91
#158 Arkansas St [13-10] - 1535.57
#159 San Diego [12-14] - 1532.61
#160 Longwood [18-6] - 1530.63
#161 Rhode Island [12-13] - 1529.14
#162 Bradley [15-13] - 1528.03
#163 Southern Utah [16-9] - 1524.14
#164 VMI [13-13] - 1523.25
#165 Sam Houston St [14-12] - 1521.58
#166 Coastal Car [11-12] - 1519.25
#167 Weber St [17-10] - 1514.96
#168 Oral Roberts [15-10] - 1513.87
#169 Mercer [13-15] - 1512.97
#170 Jacksonville [15-8] - 1510.55
#171 Drexel [13-13] - 1510.21
#172 Massachusetts [12-14] - 1509.95
#173 Akron [16-9] - 1508.27
#174 Georgia St [11-10] - 1504.60
#175 ETSU [12-16] - 1503.07
#176 Hawaii [12-9] - 1502.42
#177 James Madison [13-13] - 1498.39
#178 S Illinois [15-13] - 1492.20
#179 Loy Marymount [8-17] - 1488.07
#180 Nebraska [7-20] - 1485.10
#181 Fordham [13-13] - 1482.67
#182 Rice [12-13] - 1479.85
#183 St Joseph's PA [10-16] - 1476.21
#184 Oakland [16-11] - 1475.61
#185 Air Force [10-16] - 1475.48
#186 Bellarmine [13-12] - 1472.62
#187 Penn [12-13] - 1471.85
#188 FL Atlantic [12-13] - 1471.69
#189 Missouri KC [15-10] - 1470.37
#190 Navy [18-9] - 1463.55
#191 FGCU [17-10] - 1463.41
#192 Siena [14-11] - 1463.16
#193 Cleveland St [17-8] - 1458.67
#194 N Colorado [14-12] - 1458.53
#195 UC Davis [10-7] - 1455.01
#196 Georgetown [6-21] - 1454.33
#197 Tulsa [9-17] - 1452.68
#198 G Washington [11-15] - 1452.36
#199 Gardner Webb [14-11] - 1452.20
#200 Norfolk St [15-6] - 1448.74
#201 St Peter's [11-11] - 1444.48
#202 Georgia [6-22] - 1437.13
#203 Louisiana [11-13] - 1436.19
#204 South Dakota [15-11] - 1432.00
#205 Colgate [18-11] - 1427.94
#206 Tarleton St [10-15] - 1427.68
#207 E Washington [13-13] - 1427.55
#208 Florida Intl [13-13] - 1425.67
#209 Manhattan [13-11] - 1423.07
#210 Old Dominion [10-17] - 1422.51
#211 Cal Baptist [12-13] - 1421.59
#212 UT Arlington [9-16] - 1418.74
#213 San Jose St [7-20] - 1418.52
#214 Cornell [11-10] - 1414.46
#215 Montana [14-11] - 1413.83
#216 UC Santa Barbara [11-10] - 1409.40
#217 Valparaiso [11-16] - 1404.50
#218 Boston Univ [19-10] - 1403.04
#219 Nicholls St [15-9] - 1392.41
#220 Citadel [9-16] - 1391.68
#221 Marist [13-13] - 1390.72
#222 Niagara [11-13] - 1386.25
#223 Dixie St [9-15] - 1385.13
#224 PFW [17-10] - 1381.42
#225 W Illinois [14-13] - 1380.15
#226 Harvard [10-10] - 1378.55
#227 ULM [10-16] - 1376.58
#228 Bryant [17-9] - 1370.03
#229 N Kentucky [15-11] - 1369.94
#230 Marshall [9-18] - 1363.55
#231 Elon [7-21] - 1363.33
#232 Wright St [16-13] - 1362.30
#233 Ga Southern [8-15] - 1362.18
#234 Stony Brook [15-13] - 1359.64
#235 Southern Univ [13-11] - 1359.22
#236 Brown [10-15] - 1354.57
#237 UNC Asheville [12-13] - 1354.18
#238 South Florida [7-20] - 1354.17
#239 Campbell [12-11] - 1346.88
#240 W Carolina [9-20] - 1346.69
#241 New Orleans [13-10] - 1346.26
#242 Ball St [11-15] - 1346.03
#243 Detroit [12-13] - 1344.77
#244 TX Southern [13-11] - 1340.30
#245 UMBC [13-13] - 1337.10
#246 Northeastern [8-20] - 1328.67
#247 Quinnipiac [11-13] - 1327.61
#248 UC San Diego [9-15] - 1325.59
#249 Indiana St [8-18] - 1320.80
#250 Fairfield [11-16] - 1318.51
#251 Illinois St [9-19] - 1316.88
#252 SC Upstate [10-15] - 1316.13
#253 E Michigan [9-18] - 1310.88
#254 Youngstown St [16-12] - 1310.45
#255 Duquesne [6-20] - 1307.18
#256 Oregon St [3-23] - 1299.88
#257 SE Louisiana [12-13] - 1294.94
#258 Bowling Green [10-16] - 1293.49
#259 Ark Little Rock [5-17] - 1290.43
#260 Miami OH [9-16] - 1287.35
#261 La Salle [7-18] - 1286.91
#262 Kennesaw [8-16] - 1285.33
#263 Pepperdine [6-23] - 1279.97
#264 High Point [9-17] - 1275.60
#265 Cent Arkansas [8-18] - 1273.63
#266 Presbyterian [9-18] - 1273.33
#267 Pacific [6-20] - 1273.28
#268 SUNY Albany [13-15] - 1272.87
#269 Rider [9-16] - 1272.57
#270 North Florida [7-19] - 1272.48
#271 LIU Brooklyn [13-13] - 1269.83
#272 New Hampshire [11-12] - 1268.36
#273 TAM C. Christi [14-10] - 1266.87
#274 Portland St [8-15] - 1261.71
#275 CS Northridge [6-18] - 1258.76
#276 Canisius [7-19] - 1252.50
#277 MA Lowell [11-13] - 1249.85
#278 Alcorn St [11-15] - 1248.42
#279 Loyola MD [13-14] - 1247.01
#280 NC Central [10-12] - 1244.10
#281 S Carolina St [12-12] - 1243.27
#282 Army [12-15] - 1240.35
#283 Lipscomb [9-18] - 1240.31
#284 N Illinois [8-19] - 1239.21
#285 Dartmouth [6-16] - 1237.12
#286 C Michigan [7-19] - 1235.45
#287 IL Chicago [11-15] - 1234.32
#288 Howard [11-11] - 1234.06
#289 Radford [8-17] - 1232.51
#290 SE Missouri St [11-16] - 1228.97
#291 NC A&T [8-18] - 1228.66
#292 Austin Peay [9-16] - 1225.33
#293 Stetson [7-17] - 1219.35
#294 CS Bakersfield [5-15] - 1212.04
#295 Grambling [9-15] - 1193.00
#296 E Kentucky [8-17] - 1186.13
#297 Denver [9-19] - 1184.16
#298 Binghamton [9-14] - 1183.14
#299 Idaho [6-19] - 1181.43
#300 Merrimack [12-16] - 1178.44
#301 Northern Arizona [7-19] - 1178.33
#302 NJIT [10-15] - 1175.58
#303 Mt St Mary's [11-15] - 1170.24
#304 MD E Shore [6-13] - 1167.46
#305 CS Sacramento [6-16] - 1162.54
#306 Hampton [7-17] - 1161.09
#307 Florida A&M [9-15] - 1155.49
#308 UT San Antonio [6-19] - 1154.40
#309 Prairie View [8-15] - 1154.20
#310 Lafayette [9-18] - 1153.40
#311 Tennessee St [11-16] - 1151.51
#312 Lehigh [10-18] - 1148.70
#313 Hartford [9-18] - 1135.98
#314 Evansville [5-22] - 1135.38
#315 W Michigan [4-21] - 1134.44
#316 Coppin St [6-20] - 1132.30
#317 UTRGV [5-21] - 1131.64
#318 Jackson St [8-17] - 1130.88
#319 Southern Miss [4-22] - 1128.80
#320 Tennessee Tech [7-20] - 1128.51
#321 Idaho St [5-20] - 1125.51
#322 Cal Poly [4-20] - 1113.72
#323 McNeese St [6-19] - 1109.66
#324 St Thomas MN [6-20] - 1109.26
#325 William & Mary [4-25] - 1100.56
#326 Morgan St [5-13] - 1096.90
#327 SIUE [8-20] - 1096.52
#328 WI Milwaukee [9-20] - 1090.11
#329 American Univ [8-21] - 1087.06
#330 Chicago St [6-22] - 1080.74
#331 Alabama A&M [9-16] - 1078.84
#332 Holy Cross [7-20] - 1077.96
#333 Bucknell [7-22] - 1073.70
#334 TN Martin [6-21] - 1068.97
#335 North Alabama [5-19] - 1067.14
#336 St Francis NY [9-18] - 1050.44
#337 Houston Bap [5-15] - 1040.20
#338 Sacred Heart [8-19] - 1037.25
#339 NE Omaha [4-23] - 1036.33
#340 St Francis PA [8-19] - 1029.77
#341 Northwestern LA [5-21] - 1020.35
#342 Bethune-Cookman [6-20] - 1006.30
#343 Central Conn [7-22] - 1003.91
#344 Alabama St [7-20] - 1001.65
#345 North Dakota [4-24] - 992.76
#346 Robert Morris [6-22] - 974.90
#347 Columbia [3-20] - 955.79
#348 Incarnate Word [4-22] - 954.33
#349 F Dickinson [4-20] - 931.02
#350 Charleston So [2-23] - 917.22
#351 Ark Pine Bluff [4-22] - 915.33
#352 Maine [3-21] - 899.41
#353 E Illinois [3-25] - 892.41
#354 WI Green Bay [3-24] - 871.12
#355 MS Valley St [2-23] - 754.81
#356 IUPUI [1-24] - 633.00
#357 Lamar [0-24] - 218.52
#358 Delaware St [0-21] - 157.10

 

[RUsojo]

For tournament selection? You think so?

Imo yes. For selection you need to take into account net efficiency imo. I understand the wins and losses ultimately are the only thing that matters crowd - I agree ultimately it does - and that’s why we have conference championships and ncaa championships.

 

[fluoxetine]

Since the HCA is calculated, do the home/away adjustment to the quads based on this actual calculation instead of arbitrary rank cutoffs (even though the neutral site ones are arbitrary to start with)

So neutral:
Q1A = 1-25
Q1B = 26-50
Q2A = 51-75
Q2B = 76-100
Q3 = 101-200
Q4 = 201+

is currently equivalent to
Q1A = home 1-22 / road 1-32
Q1B = home 23-42 / road 33-57
Q2A = home 43-68 / road 58-82
Q2B = home 69-90 / road 83-104
Q3 = home 91-185 / road 105-209
Q4 = home 186+ / road 210+

Conclusion: the NETs home/road adjustment for the quads is too big

 

[fluoxetine]

Rutgers Team Sheet (under this methodology):

Rutgers (16-11)

NET: 56

Home: 13-2
Road: 3-9

Q1A: 4-3

Q1: 7-4
Q2: 1-5
Q3: 3-1
Q4: 5-1

Q1A
8 / A / Purdue / L 72-84 / Feb 20
8 / H / Purdue / W 70-68 / Dec 09
9 / A / Wisconsin / W 73-65 / Feb 12
19 / H / Ohio St / W 66-64 / Feb 09
22 / A / Illinois / L 51-86 / Dec 03
22 / H / Illinois / W 70-59 / Feb 16
28 / A / Seton Hall / L 63-77 / Dec 12

Q1B
32 / H / Michigan St / W 84-63 / Feb 05
33 / H / Iowa / W 48-46 / Jan 19
39 / A / Michigan / L 62-71 / Feb 23
39 / H / Michigan / W 75-67 / Jan 04

Q2A
71 / A / Minnesota / L 65-68 / Jan 22
77 / A / Penn St / L 49-66 / Jan 11
82 / A / Northwestern / L 78-79 OT / Feb 01

Q2B
83 / A / DePaul / L 70-73 / Nov 18
86 / A / Maryland / W 70-59 / Jan 15
86 / H / Maryland / L 60-68 / Jan 25

Q3
105 / H / Clemson / W 74-64 / Nov 30
172 / A / Massachusetts / L 83-85 / Nov 27
180 / A / Nebraska / W 63-61 / Jan 29
180 / H / Nebraska / W 93-65 / Jan 08

Q4
300 / H / Merrimack / W 48-35 / Nov 13
302 / H / NJIT / W 75-61 / Nov 16
310 / H / Lafayette / L 51-53 / Nov 22
312 / H / Lehigh / W 73-70 OT / Nov 10
343 / H / Central Conn / W 79-48 / Jan 01
352 / H / Maine / W 80-64 / Dec 30

--

Remaining

9 / H / Wisconsin / Q1-A
45 / A / Indiana / Q1
77 / H / Penn St / Q2

 

[Zak57]

This is fantastic stuff. Will dig in more tomorrow.

 

[Scangg]

Is barely beating a Q4 team at home really that much better than barely losing to a Q1 school on the road?

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

The model is excellent. Addresses many of the problems with using NET or RPI for selection.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Is barely beating a Q4 team at home really that much better than barely losing to a Q1 school on the road?

For selection into the field? Yes.

Simple demonstration - Team A (BIG team - wins a conference road game against Team X 25-5 - projected 3 seed). Doesn’t get blown out in any of its games but finishes the season with an 11-19 record. Team B (mid-major) also beat Team X on the road OOC in OT and wins their conference surviving a ton of close calls. Team B loses in their conference tourney finals and finishes with a 26-3 record.

You don’t even need more information to know that Team B should and would have a much better chance of getting an at large bid. Close Q4 wins aren’t getting you in on their own but for selection a win is a win. A loss is a loss. Your body of work shoudl be who you beat and who you lost to. Based on SD adjusted SOS.

 

[kcg88]

Current Rankings (Thru 2/24):

HFA is 25.877731490443633 rating points.

#1 Arizona [25-2] - 2280.43
#2 Gonzaga [24-2] - 2275.08
#3 Providence [23-3] - 2258.15
#4 Kansas [23-4] - 2237.19
#5 Auburn [25-3] - 2220.87
#6 Baylor [23-5] - 2196.79
#7 Texas Tech [22-6] - 2196.63
#8 Purdue [24-4] - 2181.35
#9 Wisconsin [22-5] - 2178.72
#10 Kentucky [23-5] - 2159.39
#11 Villanova [21-7] - 2141.38
#12 Duke [24-4] - 2112.19
#13 Tennessee [20-7] - 2096.93
#14 Connecticut [20-7] - 2096.83
#15 UCLA [20-6] - 2080.34
#16 Texas [20-8] - 2068.97
#17 Murray St [24-2] - 2062.15
#18 Colorado St [21-4] - 2059.53
#19 Ohio St [18-7] - 2057.71
#20 USC [24-4] - 2054.74
#21 Houston [23-4] - 2052.15
#22 Illinois [19-8] - 2044.25
#23 Marquette [17-10] - 2033.05
#24 Iowa St [19-9] - 2029.63
#25 Arkansas [22-6] - 2015.12
#26 Alabama [18-10] - 2009.34
#27 St Mary's CA [22-6] - 2006.36
#28 Seton Hall [16-9] - 2006.31
#29 Xavier [17-10] - 2003.38
#30 Creighton [19-8] - 2002.89
#31 Wyoming [21-5] - 1997.20
#32 Michigan St [18-9] - 1993.61
#33 Iowa [19-8] - 1976.41
#34 LSU [19-9] - 1974.95
#35 Boise St [21-6] - 1963.90
#36 Davidson [22-4] - 1959.41
#37 TCU [17-9] - 1953.71
#38 San Diego St [17-7] - 1937.34
#39 Michigan [15-11] - 1928.75
#40 North Carolina [20-8] - 1914.49
#41 San Francisco [21-8] - 1912.80
#42 North Texas [19-4] - 1908.14
#43 Miami FL [20-8] - 1898.34
#44 Notre Dame [19-8] - 1898.27
#45 Indiana [17-10] - 1897.36
#46 Oklahoma [14-14] - 1887.78
#47 Oregon [17-10] - 1886.20
#48 New Mexico St [20-4] - 1883.47
#49 Wake Forest [21-8] - 1881.51
#50 Kansas St [14-13] - 1881.28
#51 SMU [20-6] - 1880.01
#52 VCU [19-7] - 1875.85
#53 West Virginia [14-14] - 1868.05
#54 BYU [18-9] - 1866.09
#55 Florida [17-11] - 1865.73
#56 Rutgers [16-11] - 1864.04
#57 St John's [15-12] - 1858.95
#58 South Carolina [16-10] - 1846.65
#59 S Dakota St [24-4] - 1845.00
#60 St Bonaventure [18-7] - 1843.77
#61 Iona [22-5] - 1840.03
#62 Oklahoma St [13-14] - 1835.96
#63 Belmont [23-6] - 1835.90
#64 Memphis [16-9] - 1834.54
#65 Loyola-Chicago [21-6] - 1832.07
#66 Texas A&M [16-11] - 1829.37
#67 Mississippi St [16-12] - 1826.23
#68 Stanford [15-12] - 1825.74
#69 Colorado [18-10] - 1820.37
#70 UCF [17-9] - 1812.64
#71 Minnesota [13-13] - 1811.64
#72 Virginia [17-11] - 1807.06
#73 Santa Clara [19-10] - 1805.82
#74 Vanderbilt [14-13] - 1802.46
#75 Butler [11-16] - 1798.85
#76 Dayton [20-8] - 1795.96
#77 Penn St [11-13] - 1790.58
#78 St Louis [18-9] - 1785.58
#79 Ohio [22-5] - 1780.97
#80 UNLV [16-11] - 1780.07
#81 Virginia Tech [17-11] - 1778.68
#82 Northwestern [12-13] - 1773.39
#83 DePaul [13-14] - 1771.02
#84 Washington St [15-12] - 1769.07
#85 UAB [19-7] - 1761.44
#86 Maryland [13-15] - 1759.48
#87 Utah St [15-13] - 1756.26
#88 Chattanooga [21-7] - 1753.90
#89 Arizona St [11-16] - 1746.91
#90 Fresno St [16-10] - 1746.62
#91 Towson [22-7] - 1740.04
#92 Temple [15-10] - 1734.34
#93 Toledo [21-6] - 1731.68
#94 Mississippi [13-15] - 1728.28
#95 Wichita St [13-11] - 1727.98
#96 Syracuse [15-13] - 1727.39
#97 Florida St [14-13] - 1727.14
#98 Washington [13-13] - 1721.46
#99 Richmond [18-10] - 1717.85
#100 MTSU [19-7] - 1717.34
#101 Cincinnati [16-11] - 1697.04
#102 Texas St [17-6] - 1694.69
#103 Louisiana Tech [17-7] - 1693.02
#104 Grand Canyon [17-7] - 1692.42
#105 Clemson [13-15] - 1686.78
#106 Missouri St [20-9] - 1685.22
#107 Vermont [22-5] - 1682.36
#108 Nevada [12-14] - 1678.95
#109 Hofstra [17-10] - 1674.26
#110 Drake [19-9] - 1668.50
#111 Princeton [17-5] - 1666.93
#112 Utah Valley [16-9] - 1652.51
#113 Seattle [19-8] - 1650.56
#114 SF Austin [15-8] - 1649.97
#115 Missouri [9-18] - 1649.41
#116 Louisville [12-15] - 1648.85
#117 Furman [18-11] - 1643.80
#118 Monmouth NJ [18-9] - 1638.89
#119 Northern Iowa [16-10] - 1632.16
#120 Montana St [19-6] - 1629.01
#121 Tulane [12-12] - 1626.09
#122 Samford [17-9] - 1622.35
#123 UC Irvine [11-8] - 1617.38
#124 Morehead St [18-9] - 1614.92
#125 UNC Wilmington [18-8] - 1613.86
#126 Kent [16-9] - 1612.86
#127 Utah [11-17] - 1611.58
#128 WKU [15-11] - 1605.77
#129 Long Beach St [14-10] - 1605.55
#130 Buffalo [16-8] - 1602.83
#131 Delaware [18-10] - 1600.33
#132 Wagner [18-4] - 1599.15
#133 California [11-17] - 1598.67
#134 Winthrop [17-8] - 1597.89
#135 East Carolina [14-13] - 1592.79
#136 CS Fullerton [15-8] - 1589.79
#137 George Mason [13-13] - 1589.38
#138 Pittsburgh [11-18] - 1588.63
#139 Troy [16-9] - 1583.04
#140 Charlotte [15-12] - 1581.41
#141 Appalachian St [15-12] - 1579.44
#142 N Dakota St [18-9] - 1571.51
#143 Abilene Chr [14-8] - 1570.04
#144 Wofford [15-12] - 1567.49
#145 UNC Greensboro [16-12] - 1566.52
#146 Yale [15-10] - 1565.98
#147 New Mexico [9-17] - 1562.98
#148 South Alabama [14-10] - 1559.57
#149 Col Charleston [16-12] - 1558.45
#150 Liberty [17-10] - 1557.58
#151 UC Riverside [13-9] - 1554.19
#152 NC State [11-17] - 1554.18
#153 UTEP [14-11] - 1553.75
#154 Georgia Tech [10-17] - 1553.12
#155 Boston College [11-16] - 1542.20
#156 Jacksonville St [17-9] - 1539.15
#157 Portland [15-12] - 1536.91
#158 Arkansas St [13-10] - 1535.57
#159 San Diego [12-14] - 1532.61
#160 Longwood [18-6] - 1530.63
#161 Rhode Island [12-13] - 1529.14
#162 Bradley [15-13] - 1528.03
#163 Southern Utah [16-9] - 1524.14
#164 VMI [13-13] - 1523.25
#165 Sam Houston St [14-12] - 1521.58
#166 Coastal Car [11-12] - 1519.25
#167 Weber St [17-10] - 1514.96
#168 Oral Roberts [15-10] - 1513.87
#169 Mercer [13-15] - 1512.97
#170 Jacksonville [15-8] - 1510.55
#171 Drexel [13-13] - 1510.21
#172 Massachusetts [12-14] - 1509.95
#173 Akron [16-9] - 1508.27
#174 Georgia St [11-10] - 1504.60
#175 ETSU [12-16] - 1503.07
#176 Hawaii [12-9] - 1502.42
#177 James Madison [13-13] - 1498.39
#178 S Illinois [15-13] - 1492.20
#179 Loy Marymount [8-17] - 1488.07
#180 Nebraska [7-20] - 1485.10
#181 Fordham [13-13] - 1482.67
#182 Rice [12-13] - 1479.85
#183 St Joseph's PA [10-16] - 1476.21
#184 Oakland [16-11] - 1475.61
#185 Air Force [10-16] - 1475.48
#186 Bellarmine [13-12] - 1472.62
#187 Penn [12-13] - 1471.85
#188 FL Atlantic [12-13] - 1471.69
#189 Missouri KC [15-10] - 1470.37
#190 Navy [18-9] - 1463.55
#191 FGCU [17-10] - 1463.41
#192 Siena [14-11] - 1463.16
#193 Cleveland St [17-8] - 1458.67
#194 N Colorado [14-12] - 1458.53
#195 UC Davis [10-7] - 1455.01
#196 Georgetown [6-21] - 1454.33
#197 Tulsa [9-17] - 1452.68
#198 G Washington [11-15] - 1452.36
#199 Gardner Webb [14-11] - 1452.20
#200 Norfolk St [15-6] - 1448.74
#201 St Peter's [11-11] - 1444.48
#202 Georgia [6-22] - 1437.13
#203 Louisiana [11-13] - 1436.19
#204 South Dakota [15-11] - 1432.00
#205 Colgate [18-11] - 1427.94
#206 Tarleton St [10-15] - 1427.68
#207 E Washington [13-13] - 1427.55
#208 Florida Intl [13-13] - 1425.67
#209 Manhattan [13-11] - 1423.07
#210 Old Dominion [10-17] - 1422.51
#211 Cal Baptist [12-13] - 1421.59
#212 UT Arlington [9-16] - 1418.74
#213 San Jose St [7-20] - 1418.52
#214 Cornell [11-10] - 1414.46
#215 Montana [14-11] - 1413.83
#216 UC Santa Barbara [11-10] - 1409.40
#217 Valparaiso [11-16] - 1404.50
#218 Boston Univ [19-10] - 1403.04
#219 Nicholls St [15-9] - 1392.41
#220 Citadel [9-16] - 1391.68
#221 Marist [13-13] - 1390.72
#222 Niagara [11-13] - 1386.25
#223 Dixie St [9-15] - 1385.13
#224 PFW [17-10] - 1381.42
#225 W Illinois [14-13] - 1380.15
#226 Harvard [10-10] - 1378.55
#227 ULM [10-16] - 1376.58
#228 Bryant [17-9] - 1370.03
#229 N Kentucky [15-11] - 1369.94
#230 Marshall [9-18] - 1363.55
#231 Elon [7-21] - 1363.33
#232 Wright St [16-13] - 1362.30
#233 Ga Southern [8-15] - 1362.18
#234 Stony Brook [15-13] - 1359.64
#235 Southern Univ [13-11] - 1359.22
#236 Brown [10-15] - 1354.57
#237 UNC Asheville [12-13] - 1354.18
#238 South Florida [7-20] - 1354.17
#239 Campbell [12-11] - 1346.88
#240 W Carolina [9-20] - 1346.69
#241 New Orleans [13-10] - 1346.26
#242 Ball St [11-15] - 1346.03
#243 Detroit [12-13] - 1344.77
#244 TX Southern [13-11] - 1340.30
#245 UMBC [13-13] - 1337.10
#246 Northeastern [8-20] - 1328.67
#247 Quinnipiac [11-13] - 1327.61
#248 UC San Diego [9-15] - 1325.59
#249 Indiana St [8-18] - 1320.80
#250 Fairfield [11-16] - 1318.51
#251 Illinois St [9-19] - 1316.88
#252 SC Upstate [10-15] - 1316.13
#253 E Michigan [9-18] - 1310.88
#254 Youngstown St [16-12] - 1310.45
#255 Duquesne [6-20] - 1307.18
#256 Oregon St [3-23] - 1299.88
#257 SE Louisiana [12-13] - 1294.94
#258 Bowling Green [10-16] - 1293.49
#259 Ark Little Rock [5-17] - 1290.43
#260 Miami OH [9-16] - 1287.35
#261 La Salle [7-18] - 1286.91
#262 Kennesaw [8-16] - 1285.33
#263 Pepperdine [6-23] - 1279.97
#264 High Point [9-17] - 1275.60
#265 Cent Arkansas [8-18] - 1273.63
#266 Presbyterian [9-18] - 1273.33
#267 Pacific [6-20] - 1273.28
#268 SUNY Albany [13-15] - 1272.87
#269 Rider [9-16] - 1272.57
#270 North Florida [7-19] - 1272.48
#271 LIU Brooklyn [13-13] - 1269.83
#272 New Hampshire [11-12] - 1268.36
#273 TAM C. Christi [14-10] - 1266.87
#274 Portland St [8-15] - 1261.71
#275 CS Northridge [6-18] - 1258.76
#276 Canisius [7-19] - 1252.50
#277 MA Lowell [11-13] - 1249.85
#278 Alcorn St [11-15] - 1248.42
#279 Loyola MD [13-14] - 1247.01
#280 NC Central [10-12] - 1244.10
#281 S Carolina St [12-12] - 1243.27
#282 Army [12-15] - 1240.35
#283 Lipscomb [9-18] - 1240.31
#284 N Illinois [8-19] - 1239.21
#285 Dartmouth [6-16] - 1237.12
#286 C Michigan [7-19] - 1235.45
#287 IL Chicago [11-15] - 1234.32
#288 Howard [11-11] - 1234.06
#289 Radford [8-17] - 1232.51
#290 SE Missouri St [11-16] - 1228.97
#291 NC A&T [8-18] - 1228.66
#292 Austin Peay [9-16] - 1225.33
#293 Stetson [7-17] - 1219.35
#294 CS Bakersfield [5-15] - 1212.04
#295 Grambling [9-15] - 1193.00
#296 E Kentucky [8-17] - 1186.13
#297 Denver [9-19] - 1184.16
#298 Binghamton [9-14] - 1183.14
#299 Idaho [6-19] - 1181.43
#300 Merrimack [12-16] - 1178.44
#301 Northern Arizona [7-19] - 1178.33
#302 NJIT [10-15] - 1175.58
#303 Mt St Mary's [11-15] - 1170.24
#304 MD E Shore [6-13] - 1167.46
#305 CS Sacramento [6-16] - 1162.54
#306 Hampton [7-17] - 1161.09
#307 Florida A&M [9-15] - 1155.49
#308 UT San Antonio [6-19] - 1154.40
#309 Prairie View [8-15] - 1154.20
#310 Lafayette [9-18] - 1153.40
#311 Tennessee St [11-16] - 1151.51
#312 Lehigh [10-18] - 1148.70
#313 Hartford [9-18] - 1135.98
#314 Evansville [5-22] - 1135.38
#315 W Michigan [4-21] - 1134.44
#316 Coppin St [6-20] - 1132.30
#317 UTRGV [5-21] - 1131.64
#318 Jackson St [8-17] - 1130.88
#319 Southern Miss [4-22] - 1128.80
#320 Tennessee Tech [7-20] - 1128.51
#321 Idaho St [5-20] - 1125.51
#322 Cal Poly [4-20] - 1113.72
#323 McNeese St [6-19] - 1109.66
#324 St Thomas MN [6-20] - 1109.26
#325 William & Mary [4-25] - 1100.56
#326 Morgan St [5-13] - 1096.90
#327 SIUE [8-20] - 1096.52
#328 WI Milwaukee [9-20] - 1090.11
#329 American Univ [8-21] - 1087.06
#330 Chicago St [6-22] - 1080.74
#331 Alabama A&M [9-16] - 1078.84
#332 Holy Cross [7-20] - 1077.96
#333 Bucknell [7-22] - 1073.70
#334 TN Martin [6-21] - 1068.97
#335 North Alabama [5-19] - 1067.14
#336 St Francis NY [9-18] - 1050.44
#337 Houston Bap [5-15] - 1040.20
#338 Sacred Heart [8-19] - 1037.25
#339 NE Omaha [4-23] - 1036.33
#340 St Francis PA [8-19] - 1029.77
#341 Northwestern LA [5-21] - 1020.35
#342 Bethune-Cookman [6-20] - 1006.30
#343 Central Conn [7-22] - 1003.91
#344 Alabama St [7-20] - 1001.65
#345 North Dakota [4-24] - 992.76
#346 Robert Morris [6-22] - 974.90
#347 Columbia [3-20] - 955.79
#348 Incarnate Word [4-22] - 954.33
#349 F Dickinson [4-20] - 931.02
#350 Charleston So [2-23] - 917.22
#351 Ark Pine Bluff [4-22] - 915.33
#352 Maine [3-21] - 899.41
#353 E Illinois [3-25] - 892.41
#354 WI Green Bay [3-24] - 871.12
#355 MS Valley St [2-23] - 754.81
#356 IUPUI [1-24] - 633.00
#357 Lamar [0-24] - 218.52
#358 Delaware St [0-21] - 157.10

I'd have Northern Illinois at #283 and Lipscomb at #284 but otherwise this looks right to me.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

eye test counts for NCAA football in the CFP.. but not for basketball and the NCAA Tourney

consistent

 

[Scangg]

Wouldn't a model that weighs wins and losses strongly always favor smaller schools in crappy conferences where you can pile up 20+ wins fairly easily without beating anyone good?

And punishment teams in conferences like the B1G where you are naturally going to have more losses since you are playing much better teams game after game?

 

[Scarlet Blind]

Rutgers won at Maryland 70-59, Net up 7, 103.2, 87.9
2pt 17-34, 3pt 10-22, FT 6-9, FTRate 16.1
Rutgers won at home Illinois 70-59, Net up 6, 117.7, 79.1
2pt 23-44, 3pt 5-15, FT 9-14, FTRate 23.7
Would be a good analytically data points in your new NET
I know efficiency isn't a part of it, but like last year's Rutgers 68-80 and 68-79 losses to OSU was unique.

 

[Loyal_2RU]

@Loyal_2RU @SkilletHead2

I created what is basically a Bradley-Terry model (+ home court advantage) with a ballast component that assumes a "draw" in a game against an average opponent with a weight of 0.075 of a normal game. (This was chosen by seeing what made the post Conference Tournament model outputs most predictive of the postseason results for the last 10 years).

Pros:
- Only wins and losses matter
- A win cannot hurt you and a loss cannot help you
- Includes a HCA component, which is calculated from the data and non-arbitrary
- I made it
- The ballast component solves the issue of undefeated/winless teams having ratings that go to infinity/-infinity
- Fully accounts for SOS

Ratings are on the standard elo chess scale (1500 is average, 400 is one SD of performance)

Here is what the rankings would look like for the Big Ten after the date of every RU game this year (taking early season with the usual large grain of salt):

--
Nov 10 / Rutgers W vs Lehigh

1. #22 Wisconsin (1-0)
1. #22 Northwestern (1-0)
1. #22 Minnesota (1-0)
1. #22 Indiana (1-0)
1. #22 Purdue (1-0)
1. #22 Ohio St (1-0)
1. #22 Maryland (1-0)
1. #22 Iowa (1-0)
1. #22 Illinois (1-0)
1. #22 Rutgers (1-0)
1. #22 Penn St (1-0)
1. #22 Michigan (1-0)
13. #248 Michigan St (0-1)
14. #251 Nebraska (0-1)

--
Nov 13 / Rutgers W vs Merrimack

1. #3 Indiana (2-0)
2. #5 Penn St (1-0)
3. #15 Rutgers (2-0)
4. #21 Maryland (3-0)
5. #50 Purdue (2-0)
6. #58 Minnesota (2-0)
7. #60 Iowa (2-0)
8. #62 Ohio St (2-0)
9. #67 Michigan (2-0)
10. #68 Northwestern (2-0)
11. #83 Illinois (2-0)
12. #131 Wisconsin (2-0)
13. #165 Michigan St (1-1)
14. #172 Nebraska (1-1)

--
Nov 16 / Rutgers W vs NJIT

1. #11 Minnesota (3-0)
2. #13 Indiana (2-0)
3. #22 Iowa (3-0)
4. #33 Rutgers (3-0)
5. #39 Maryland (3-0)
6. #62 Purdue (3-0)
7. #65 Michigan (2-1)
8. #80 Ohio St (3-0)
9. #92 Northwestern (3-0)
10. #129 Penn St (1-1)
11. #145 Illinois (2-1)
12. #164 Michigan St (1-1)
13. #172 Wisconsin (2-1)
14. #220 Nebraska (1-2)

--
Nov 18 / Rutgers L at DePaul

1. #4 Minnesota (3-0)
2. #8 Purdue (3-0)
3. #11 Iowa (4-0)
4. #44 Indiana (3-0)
5. #49 Michigan St (2-1)
6. #62 Michigan (2-1)
7. #81 Northwestern (4-0)
8. #84 Maryland (3-1)
9. #123 Ohio St (3-1)
10. #126 Rutgers (3-1)
11. #128 Illinois (2-1)
12. #140 Penn St (2-1)
13. #155 Wisconsin (2-1)
14. #266 Nebraska (1-2)

--
Nov 22 / Rutgers L vs Lafayette

1. #10 Ohio St (4-1)
2. #15 Minnesota (4-0)
3. #22 Purdue (5-0)
4. #27 Iowa (5-0)
5. #49 Indiana (4-0)
6. #50 Wisconsin (3-1)
7. #57 Michigan (3-2)
8. #95 Illinois (2-2)
9. #98 Michigan St (3-1)
10. #108 Northwestern (4-1)
11. #109 Nebraska (3-2)
12. #129 Maryland (4-1)
13. #152 Penn St (3-1)
14. #324 Rutgers (3-2)

--
Nov 27 / Rutgers L at Massachusetts

1. #10 Purdue (6-0)
2. #15 Ohio St (4-2)
3. #25 Indiana (6-0)
4. #29 Minnesota (5-0)
5. #37 Wisconsin (5-1)
6. #51 Michigan (4-2)
7. #53 Iowa (6-0)
8. #66 Michigan St (5-2)
9. #67 Northwestern (5-1)
10. #93 Illinois (4-2)
11. #94 Nebraska (5-2)
12. #127 Maryland (5-2)
13. #146 Penn St (4-2)
14. #273 Rutgers (3-3)

--
Nov 30 / Rutgers W vs Clemson

1. #4 Ohio St (5-2)
2. #8 Purdue (7-0)
3. #17 Iowa (7-0)
4. #24 Minnesota (6-0)
5. #28 Michigan (4-2)
6. #33 Wisconsin (5-1)
7. #41 Michigan St (5-2)
8. #79 Illinois (5-2)
9. #90 Northwestern (5-2)
10. #95 Indiana (6-1)
11. #119 Penn St (4-2)
12. #135 Nebraska (5-2)
13. #139 Maryland (5-2)
14. #184 Rutgers (4-3)

--
Dec 3 / Rutgers L at Illinois

1. #2 Purdue (8-0)
2. #11 Ohio St (5-2)
3. #12 Iowa (7-1)
4. #19 Wisconsin (6-1)
5. #27 Michigan St (6-2)
6. #34 Minnesota (6-0)
7. #67 Michigan (4-3)
8. #68 Northwestern (5-2)
9. #84 Illinois (6-2)
10. #106 Maryland (5-3)
11. #109 Indiana (6-1)
12. #143 Nebraska (5-3)
13. #171 Penn St (4-3)
14. #216 Rutgers (4-4)

--
Dec 9 / Rutgers W vs Purdue

1. #10 Wisconsin (8-1, 1-0)
2. #13 Michigan St (8-2, 1-0)
3. #17 Ohio St (7-2, 1-0)
4. #31 Minnesota (7-1, 0-1)
5. #33 Purdue (8-1, 1-1)
6. #37 Illinois (7-2, 2-0)
7. #40 Northwestern (6-2, 1-0)
8. #53 Michigan (6-3, 1-0)
9. #63 Indiana (7-2, 1-1)
10. #68 Iowa (7-3, 0-2)
11. #120 Penn St (5-4, 0-1)
12. #123 Maryland (5-4, 0-1)
13. #132 Rutgers (5-4, 1-1)
14. #181 Nebraska (5-5, 0-2)

--
Dec 12 / Rutgers L at Seton Hall

1. #11 Michigan St (9-2, 2-0)
2. #12 Ohio St (8-2, 2-0)
3. #15 Wisconsin (8-2, 1-1)
4. #20 Minnesota (8-1, 1-1)
5. #29 Purdue (9-1, 1-1)
6. #42 Northwestern (7-2, 1-0)
7. #47 Illinois (7-3, 2-0)
8. #48 Michigan (6-4, 1-1)
9. #63 Indiana (8-2, 1-1)
10. #74 Iowa (7-3, 0-2)
11. #101 Maryland (6-4, 0-1)
12. #124 Penn St (5-5, 0-2)
13. #142 Rutgers (5-5, 1-1)
14. #171 Nebraska (5-6, 0-2)

--
Dec 30 / Rutgers W vs Maine

1. #5 Michigan St (11-2, 2-0)
2. #11 Minnesota (10-1, 1-1)
3. #13 Wisconsin (10-2, 1-1)
4. #14 Ohio St (8-2, 2-0)
5. #20 Purdue (12-1, 1-1)
6. #49 Illinois (9-3, 2-0)
7. #52 Iowa (10-3, 0-2)
8. #53 Michigan (7-5, 1-1)
9. #54 Northwestern (7-2, 1-0)
10. #60 Indiana (10-2, 1-1)
11. #87 Maryland (8-4, 0-1)
12. #100 Penn St (5-5, 0-2)
13. #133 Rutgers (6-5, 1-1)
14. #197 Nebraska (6-7, 0-2)

--
Jan 1 / Rutgers W vs Central Connecticut

1. #5 Michigan St (11-2, 2-0)
2. #13 Minnesota (10-1, 1-1)
3. #14 Wisconsin (10-2, 1-1)
4. #15 Ohio St (8-2, 2-0)
5. #17 Purdue (12-1, 1-1)
6. #51 Illinois (9-3, 2-0)
7. #52 Iowa (10-3, 0-2)
8. #54 Michigan (7-5, 1-1)
9. #58 Indiana (10-2, 1-1)
10. #60 Northwestern (7-2, 1-0)
11. #87 Maryland (8-4, 0-1)
12. #95 Penn St (5-5, 0-2)
13. #129 Rutgers (7-5, 1-1)
14. #209 Nebraska (6-7, 0-2)

--
Jan 4 / Rutgers W vs Michigan

1. #5 Michigan St (12-2, 3-0)
2. #12 Wisconsin (11-2, 2-1)
3. #13 Ohio St (9-2, 3-0)
4. #20 Purdue (12-2, 1-2)
5. #31 Minnesota (10-2, 1-2)
6. #35 Illinois (10-3, 3-0)
7. #41 Iowa (11-3, 1-2)
8. #63 Northwestern (7-3, 1-1)
9. #71 Penn St (6-5, 1-2)
10. #72 Indiana (10-3, 1-2)
11. #73 Michigan (7-6, 1-2)
12. #91 Rutgers (8-5, 2-1)
13. #100 Maryland (8-5, 0-2)
14. #198 Nebraska (6-8, 0-3)

--
Jan 8 / Rutgers W vs Nebraska

1. #5 Michigan St (13-2, 4-0)
2. #7 Wisconsin (12-2, 3-1)
3. #15 Purdue (13-2, 2-2)
4. #22 Ohio St (9-3, 3-1)
5. #29 Minnesota (10-2, 1-2)
6. #34 Illinois (11-3, 4-0)
7. #46 Iowa (11-4, 1-3)
8. #48 Indiana (11-3, 2-2)
9. #61 Penn St (7-6, 2-3)
10. #76 Michigan (7-6, 1-2)
11. #90 Northwestern (7-4, 1-2)
12. #95 Rutgers (9-5, 3-1)
13. #105 Maryland (8-6, 0-3)
14. #199 Nebraska (6-10, 0-5)

--
Jan 11 / Rutgers L at Penn St.

1. #4 Michigan St (13-2, 4-0)
2. #5 Wisconsin (13-2, 4-1)
3. #16 Purdue (13-2, 2-2)
4. #19 Ohio St (10-3, 4-1)
5. #35 Illinois (12-3, 5-0)
6. #36 Indiana (12-3, 3-2)
7. #42 Minnesota (10-3, 1-3)
8. #49 Iowa (11-4, 1-3)
9. #56 Penn St (8-6, 3-3)
10. #79 Michigan (7-6, 1-2)
11. #90 Northwestern (7-5, 1-3)
12. #101 Rutgers (9-6, 3-2)
13. #110 Maryland (8-7, 0-4)
14. #203 Nebraska (6-11, 0-6)

--
Jan 15 / Rutgers W at Maryland

1. #2 Wisconsin (14-2, 5-1)
2. #9 Michigan St (14-3, 5-1)
3. #11 Purdue (14-2, 3-2)
4. #22 Ohio St (10-4, 4-2)
5. #27 Illinois (13-3, 6-0)
6. #40 Iowa (12-4, 2-3)
7. #44 Minnesota (10-4, 1-4)
8. #45 Indiana (12-4, 3-3)
9. #62 Penn St (8-6, 3-3)
10. #79 Northwestern (8-6, 2-4)
11. #84 Michigan (7-7, 1-3)
12. #96 Rutgers (10-6, 4-2)
13. #101 Maryland (9-8, 1-5)
14. #189 Nebraska (6-12, 0-7)

--
Jan 19 / Rutgers W vs Iowa

1. #2 Wisconsin (15-2, 6-1)
2. #7 Purdue (15-2, 4-2)
3. #8 Michigan St (14-3, 5-1)
4. #20 Ohio St (12-4, 5-2)
5. #28 Illinois (13-4, 6-1)
6. #44 Iowa (13-5, 3-4)
7. #46 Indiana (13-4, 4-3)
8. #54 Minnesota (10-5, 1-5)
9. #62 Penn St (8-7, 3-4)
10. #78 Rutgers (11-6, 5-2)
11. #79 Michigan (8-7, 2-3)
12. #83 Northwestern (8-7, 2-5)
13. #104 Maryland (9-9, 1-6)
14. #191 Nebraska (6-13, 0-8)

--
Jan 22 / Rutgers L at Minnesota

1. #4 Wisconsin (15-3, 6-2)
2. #7 Michigan St (15-3, 6-1)
3. #16 Purdue (15-3, 4-3)
4. #19 Ohio St (12-4, 5-2)
5. #35 Indiana (14-4, 5-3)
6. #38 Illinois (13-5, 6-2)
7. #40 Iowa (14-5, 4-4)
8. #48 Minnesota (11-5, 2-5)
9. #67 Penn St (8-8, 3-5)
10. #77 Michigan (8-7, 2-3)
11. #79 Northwestern (8-7, 2-5)
12. #81 Rutgers (11-7, 5-3)
13. #91 Maryland (10-9, 2-6)
14. #183 Nebraska (6-13, 0-8)

--
Jan 25 / Rutgers L vs Maryland

1. #5 Wisconsin (15-3, 6-2)
2. #11 Michigan St (15-4, 6-2)
3. #15 Purdue (16-3, 5-3)
4. #20 Ohio St (12-4, 5-2)
5. #28 Illinois (14-5, 7-2)
6. #38 Iowa (14-5, 4-4)
7. #44 Indiana (14-5, 5-4)
8. #49 Minnesota (11-5, 2-5)
9. #68 Michigan (9-7, 3-3)
10. #72 Penn St (8-8, 3-5)
11. #82 Northwestern (8-8, 2-6)
12. #85 Maryland (11-9, 3-6)
13. #91 Rutgers (11-8, 5-4)
14. #177 Nebraska (6-13, 0-8)

--
Jan 29 / Rutgers W at Nebraska

1. #3 Wisconsin (16-3, 7-2)
2. #9 Michigan St (16-4, 7-2)
3. #11 Purdue (17-3, 6-3)
4. #18 Ohio St (13-4, 6-2)
5. #25 Illinois (15-5, 8-2)
6. #35 Indiana (16-5, 7-4)
7. #39 Iowa (14-6, 4-5)
8. #48 Minnesota (11-6, 2-6)
9. #67 Michigan (10-8, 4-4)
10. #76 Penn St (8-9, 3-6)
11. #88 Maryland (11-10, 3-7)
12. #92 Rutgers (12-8, 6-4)
13. #98 Northwestern (8-10, 2-8)
14. #193 Nebraska (6-15, 0-10)

--
Feb 1 / Rutgers L at Northwestern

1. #3 Wisconsin (17-3, 8-2)
2. #9 Purdue (18-3, 7-3)
3. #11 Michigan St (17-4, 8-2)
4. #18 Ohio St (13-5, 6-3)
5. #25 Illinois (15-5, 8-2)
6. #33 Indiana (16-5, 7-4)
7. #44 Iowa (14-7, 4-6)
8. #52 Minnesota (11-7, 2-7)
9. #64 Michigan (11-8, 5-4)
10. #68 Penn St (9-9, 4-6)
11. #87 Northwestern (9-10, 3-8)
12. #92 Maryland (11-11, 3-8)
13. #101 Rutgers (12-9, 6-5)
14. #198 Nebraska (6-16, 0-11)

--
Feb 5 / Rutgers W vs Michigan St.

1. #6 Wisconsin (18-4, 9-3)
2. #7 Purdue (20-3, 9-3)
3. #16 Illinois (17-5, 8-3)
4. #17 Michigan St (17-5, 8-3)
5. #18 Ohio St (13-5, 6-3)
6. #36 Indiana (16-6, 7-5)
7. #40 Iowa (14-7, 4-6)
8. #55 Minnesota (11-8, 2-8)
9. #63 Michigan (11-9, 5-5)
10. #69 Penn St (9-10, 4-7)
11. #82 Northwestern (10-10, 4-8)
12. #83 Rutgers (13-9, 7-5)
13. #91 Maryland (11-11, 3-8)
14. #198 Nebraska (6-17, 0-12)

--
Feb 9 / Rutgers W vs Ohio St.

1. #4 Wisconsin (19-4, 10-3)
2. #6 Purdue (21-3, 10-3)
3. #15 Illinois (17-6, 10-3)
4. #19 Michigan St (17-6, 8-4)
5. #25 Ohio St (14-6, 7-4)
6. #38 Iowa (15-7, 5-6)
7. #42 Indiana (16-7, 7-6)
8. #55 Michigan (12-9, 6-5)
9. #70 Northwestern (11-10, 5-8)
10. #72 Rutgers (14-9, 8-5)
11. #77 Minnesota (11-10, 2-10)
12. #79 Penn St (9-11, 4-8)
13. #90 Maryland (11-12, 3-9)
14. #176 Nebraska (7-17, 1-12)

--
Feb 12 / Rutgers W at Wisconsin

1. #8 Wisconsin (19-5, 10-4)
2. #9 Purdue (21-4, 10-4)
3. #15 Illinois (17-6, 10-3)
4. #17 Michigan St (18-6, 9-4)
5. #25 Ohio St (15-6, 8-4)
6. #36 Iowa (16-7, 6-6)
7. #46 Indiana (16-8, 7-7)
8. #49 Michigan (13-10, 7-6)
9. #57 Rutgers (15-9, 9-5)
10. #67 Minnesota (12-10, 3-10)
11. #73 Northwestern (11-10, 5-8)
12. #87 Penn St (9-12, 4-9)
13. #91 Maryland (11-13, 3-10)
14. #174 Nebraska (7-17, 1-12)

--
Feb 16 / Rutgers W vs Illinois

1. #7 Purdue (23-4, 12-4)
2. #10 Wisconsin (20-5, 11-4)
3. #20 Illinois (18-7, 11-4)
4. #21 Ohio St (16-6, 9-4)
5. #22 Michigan St (18-7, 9-5)
6. #35 Iowa (17-7, 7-6)
7. #46 Indiana (16-9, 7-8)
8. #47 Michigan (13-10, 7-6)
9. #50 Rutgers (16-9, 10-5)
10. #72 Minnesota (12-11, 3-11)
11. #74 Penn St (10-12, 5-9)
12. #78 Northwestern (11-12, 5-10)
13. #91 Maryland (11-14, 3-11)
14. #173 Nebraska (7-18, 1-13)

--
Feb 20 / Rutgers L at Purdue

1. #7 Purdue (24-4, 13-4)
2. #9 Wisconsin (21-5, 12-4)
3. #16 Illinois (19-7, 12-4)
4. #23 Ohio St (16-7, 9-5)
5. #25 Michigan St (18-8, 9-6)
6. #34 Iowa (18-8, 8-7)
7. #40 Michigan (14-11, 8-7)
8. #44 Indiana (16-9, 7-8)
9. #50 Rutgers (16-10, 10-6)
10. #69 Minnesota (13-12, 4-12)
11. #70 Penn St (11-12, 6-9)
12. #80 Northwestern (11-13, 5-11)
13. #87 Maryland (12-14, 4-11)
14. #179 Nebraska (7-19, 1-14)

--
Feb 23 / Rutgers L at Michigan

1. #8 Purdue (24-4, 13-4)
2. #9 Wisconsin (22-5, 13-4)
3. #16 Illinois (19-7, 12-4)
4. #22 Ohio St (17-7, 10-5)
5. #31 Michigan St (18-9, 9-7)
6. #33 Iowa (19-8, 9-7)
7. #39 Michigan (15-11, 9-7)
8. #47 Indiana (16-10, 7-9)
9. #53 Rutgers (16-11, 10-7)
10. #71 Minnesota (13-13, 4-13)
11. #77 Penn St (11-13, 6-10)
12. #82 Northwestern (12-13, 6-11)
13. #83 Maryland (13-14, 5-11)
14. #183 Nebraska (7-20, 1-15)

Very cool. Crazy with work stuff but we'll look this over carefully in time.

 

[fluoxetine]

Wouldn't a model that weighs wins and losses strongly always favor smaller schools in crappy conferences where you can pile up 20+ wins fairly easily without beating anyone good?

And punishment teams in conferences like the B1G where you are naturally going to have more losses since you are playing much better teams game after game?

In theory it shouldn't any more than any other model, because it is fully iterative from a strength of schedule standpoint.

Take Murray St, for example. At #17 here they are higher than they are in Kenpom (24th). But that's more because they've won more than their efficiency indicates (#59 in luck on Kenpom) and not an issue with the SOS.

Another example would be South Dakota St. #69 in kenpom, positive luck, #59 here. Doesn't seem out of line to me.

At the extremes it sort of becomes true, because an undefeated team can never have a rating below 1500 even if they beat Delaware St 30 times. But if you are undefeated you are getting an autobid anyway, so *shrug*

 

[fluoxetine]

Rutgers won at Maryland 70-59, Net up 7, 103.2, 87.9
2pt 17-34, 3pt 10-22, FT 6-9, FTRate 16.1
Rutgers won at home Illinois 70-59, Net up 6, 117.7, 79.1
2pt 23-44, 3pt 5-15, FT 9-14, FTRate 23.7
Would be a good analytically data points in your new NET
I know efficiency isn't a part of it, but like last year's Rutgers 68-80 and 68-79 losses to OSU was unique.

Here is the marginal impact that each game is having on our ranking / rating (computed by removing each game separately and comparing the results to the full results)

Rutgers currently #56 at 1864

Impact to Rating / Rank:

11/10 vs 312 Lehigh W - (+1 / 0)

11/13 vs 300 Merrimack W - (+1 / 0)

11/16 vs 302 NJIT W - (+1 / 0)

11/18 at 80 DePaul L - (-32 / -10)

11/22 vs 308 Lafayette L - (-53 / -16)

11/27 at 173 Massachusetts L - (-48 / -14)

11/30 vs 105 Clemson W - (+13 / +1)

12/03 at 22 Illinois L - (-10 / -3)

12/09 vs 8 Purdue W - (+36 / +10)

12/12 at 28 Seton Hall L - (-14 / -4)

12/30 vs 352 Maine W - (0 / 0)

01/01 vs 343 Central Conn W - (0 / 0)

01/04 vs 39 Michigan W - (+25 / +4)

01/08 vs 183 Nebraska W - (+4 / 0)

01/11 at 73 Penn St L - (-26 / -10)

01/15 at 84 Maryland W - (+18 / +2)

01/19 vs 33 Iowa W - (+29 / +6)

01/22 at 70 Minnesota L - (-26 / -10)

01/25 vs 84 Maryland L - (-31 / -10)

01/29 at 183 Nebraska W - (+5 / 0)

02/01 at 86 Northwestern L - (-29 / -10)

02/05 vs 32 Michigan St W - (+30 / +7)

02/09 vs 19 Ohio St W - (+34 / +8)

02/12 at 9 Wisconsin W - (+40 / +12)

02/16 vs 22 Illinois W - (+31 / +7)

02/20 at 8 Purdue L - (-5 / -3)

02/23 at 39 Michigan L - (-17 / -6)

 

[Scangg]

In theory it shouldn't any more than any other model, because it is fully iterative from a strength of schedule standpoint.

Take Murray St, for example. At #17 here they are higher than they are in Kenpom (24th). But that's more because they've won more than their efficiency indicates (#59 in luck on Kenpom) and not an issue with the SOS.

Another example would be South Dakota St. #69 in kenpom, positive luck, #59 here. Doesn't seem out of line to me.

At the extremes it sort of becomes true, because an undefeated team can never have a rating below 1500 even if they beat Delaware St 30 times. But if you are undefeated you are getting an autobid anyway, so *shrug*

You should try publishing your model and the rankings and see if you can get any traction.

The appetite for a better model is certainly out there

 

[SkilletHead2]

Good work, Fluoxetine! I particularly like focusing on wins and losses (with home court advantage built in) and not margins. Any model that includes margins encourages running up the scores. At the same time 17-8 against a mediocre schedule should not be viewed as positively as 17-8 against a strong schedule. Probably should not be viewed as positively as 15-10 against a strong schedule.

Your model seems strong statistically and fundamentally fair. The only things one might additionally consider is recency and flukes. In stat, there is a notion of a "Windsorized mean" where you cut out the extreme scores and take a middle of the remaining scores. Look at us. We lost to one of the worst teams in the nation and then beat the #1 team in the nation. Clearly we can't be that bad or that good. HOWEVER, that is a bit of a rabbit hole. In your current model, you are looking at the ranking people deserve as opposed to "how good are they right now?" You kind of have the Bill Parcells' model (You're as good as your record says you are.)

Very interesting stuff!

 

[fluoxetine]

02/26/2022

Top 50

#1 Providence (24-3)
#2 Baylor (24-5)
#3 Gonzaga (24-3)
#4 Kansas (23-5)
#5 Arizona (25-3)
#6 Wisconsin (23-5)
#7 Auburn (25-4)
#8 Texas Tech (22-7)
#9 Purdue (24-5)
#10 Villanova (21-7)
#11 Kentucky (23-6)
#12 Tennessee (21-7)
#13 Duke (25-4)
#14 Connecticut (20-7)
#15 Texas (21-8)
#16 Colorado St (22-4)
#17 UCLA (21-6)
#18 USC (25-4)
#19 Ohio St (18-7)
#20 Murray St (25-2)
#21 Houston (23-4)
#22 St Mary's CA (23-6)
#23 Arkansas (23-6)
#24 Iowa St (20-9)
#25 Marquette (18-10)

#26 Illinois (19-8)
#27 Seton Hall (17-9)
#28 Michigan St (19-9)
#29 Alabama (19-10)
#30 Wyoming (22-5)
#31 Creighton (19-9)
#32 TCU (18-9)
#33 Xavier (17-11)
#34 LSU (20-9)
#35 Boise St (22-6)
#36 Iowa (20-8)
#37 Davidson (23-4)
#38 San Diego St (18-7)
#39 Michigan (15-11)
#40 San Francisco (22-8)
#41 North Texas (20-4)
#42 North Carolina (21-8)
#43 Notre Dame (20-8)
#44 Oklahoma (15-14)
#45 Indiana (17-10)
#46 Wake Forest (22-8)
#47 VCU (20-7)
#48 Oregon (17-11)
#49 Miami FL (20-9)
#50 SMU (20-6)

Big Ten

1. #6 Wisconsin (23-5, 14-4)
2. #9 Purdue (24-5, 13-5)
3. #19 Ohio St (18-7, 11-5)
4. #26 Illinois (19-8, 12-5)
5. #28 Michigan St (19-9, 10-7)
6. #36 Iowa (20-8, 10-7)
7. #39 Michigan (15-11, 9-7)
8. #45 Indiana (17-10, 8-9)
9. #56 Rutgers (16-12, 10-8)
10. #69 Minnesota (13-13, 4-13)
11. #73 Penn St (12-13, 7-10)
12. #83 Maryland (13-15, 5-12)
13. #88 Northwestern (12-14, 6-12)
14. #187 Nebraska (7-21, 1-16)

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

02/26/2022

Top 50

#1 Providence (24-3)
#2 Baylor (24-5)
#3 Gonzaga (24-3)
#4 Kansas (23-5)
#5 Arizona (25-3)
#6 Wisconsin (23-5)
#7 Auburn (25-4)
#8 Texas Tech (22-7)
#9 Purdue (24-5)
#10 Villanova (21-7)
#11 Kentucky (23-6)
#12 Tennessee (21-7)
#13 Duke (25-4)
#14 Connecticut (20-7)
#15 Texas (21-8)
#16 Colorado St (22-4)
#17 UCLA (21-6)
#18 USC (25-4)
#19 Ohio St (18-7)
#20 Murray St (25-2)
#21 Houston (23-4)
#22 St Mary's CA (23-6)
#23 Arkansas (23-6)
#24 Iowa St (20-9)
#25 Marquette (18-10)

#26 Illinois (19-8)
#27 Seton Hall (17-9)
#28 Michigan St (19-9)
#29 Alabama (19-10)
#30 Wyoming (22-5)
#31 Creighton (19-9)
#32 TCU (18-9)
#33 Xavier (17-11)
#34 LSU (20-9)
#35 Boise St (22-6)
#36 Iowa (20-8)
#37 Davidson (23-4)
#38 San Diego St (18-7)
#39 Michigan (15-11)
#40 San Francisco (22-8)
#41 North Texas (20-4)
#42 North Carolina (21-8)
#43 Notre Dame (20-8)
#44 Oklahoma (15-14)
#45 Indiana (17-10)
#46 Wake Forest (22-8)
#47 VCU (20-7)
#48 Oregon (17-11)
#49 Miami FL (20-9)
#50 SMU (20-6)

Big Ten

1. #6 Wisconsin (23-5, 14-4)
2. #9 Purdue (24-5, 13-5)
3. #19 Ohio St (18-7, 11-5)
4. #26 Illinois (19-8, 12-5)
5. #28 Michigan St (19-9, 10-7)
6. #36 Iowa (20-8, 10-7)
7. #39 Michigan (15-11, 9-7)
8. #45 Indiana (17-10, 8-9)
9. #56 Rutgers (16-12, 10-8)
10. #69 Minnesota (13-13, 4-13)
11. #73 Penn St (12-13, 7-10)
12. #83 Maryland (13-15, 5-12)
13. #88 Northwestern (12-14, 6-12)
14. #187 Nebraska (7-21, 1-16)

if you do try to sell this thing.. maybe give DraftKings or FanDuel a call.. they seem to do a lot of marketing and app expertise... could likely make it a "thing" quickly. Copyright your system first.

 

[ScarletDave]

This is the only way a legitimate ranking should be. How many GAMES did you win, and how good were those teams. Closest thing to making the GAME W/L matter as the only thing (as IMO it is the only thing that matters) instead of all these other stupid stats that mean something to someone but not necessarily to everyone

 

[RUJMM78]

This is the only way a legitimate ranking should be. How many GAMES did you win, and how good were those teams. Closest thing to making the GAME W/L matter as the only thing (as IMO it is the only thing that matters) instead of all these other stupid stats that mean something to someone but not necessarily to everyone

How many games did you win and how many were on the road is the difference maker beween teams with similar won/loss records.

 

[fluoxetine]

03/02/2022

Top 50

#1 Baylor (25-5)
#2 Arizona (26-3)
#3 Providence (24-4)
#4 Gonzaga (24-3)
#5 Wisconsin (24-5)
#6 Auburn (26-4)
#7 Kansas (23-6)
#8 Texas Tech (23-7)
#9 Villanova (22-7)
#10 Kentucky (24-6)
#11 Purdue (24-6)
#12 Tennessee (22-7)
#13 Duke (26-4)
#14 UCLA (22-6)
#15 Colorado St (22-4)
#16 Connecticut (21-8)
#17 Houston (25-4)
#18 Texas (21-9)
#19 Arkansas (24-6)
#20 USC (25-5)
#21 Murray St (25-2)
#22 St Mary's CA (23-6)
#23 Illinois (20-8)
#24 Seton Hall (18-9)
#25 TCU (19-9)

#26 Creighton (20-9)
#27 Iowa St (20-10)
#28 Marquette (18-11)
#29 Alabama (19-11)
#30 Michigan St (19-10)
#31 Ohio St (18-9)
#32 Boise St (23-6)
#33 Iowa (21-8)
#34 LSU (20-10)
#35 San Diego St (19-7)
#36 Davidson (24-4)
#37 Xavier (17-12)
#38 Wyoming (22-7)
#39 Michigan (16-12)
#40 North Carolina (22-8)
#41 San Francisco (22-8)
#42 Oklahoma (16-14)
#43 North Texas (20-4)
#44 VCU (21-7)
#45 Wake Forest (23-8)
#46 Florida (19-11)
#47 Indiana (18-11)
#48 Miami FL (21-9)
#49 Notre Dame (20-9)
#50 Rutgers (17-12)

Big Ten

1. #5 Wisconsin (24-5, 15-4)
2. #11 Purdue (24-6, 13-6)
3. #23 Illinois (20-8, 13-5)
4. #30 Michigan St (19-10, 10-8)
5. #31 Ohio St (18-9, 11-7)
6. #33 Iowa (21-8, 11-7)
7. #39 Michigan (16-12, 10-8)
8. #47 Indiana (18-11, 9-10)
9. #50 Rutgers (17-12, 11-8)
10. #75 Maryland (15-15, 7-12)
11. #81 Minnesota (13-15, 4-15)
12. #85 Penn St (12-14, 7-11)
13. #91 Northwestern (12-15, 6-13)
14. #142 Nebraska (9-21, 3-16)

 

[fluoxetine]

03/06/2022

Top 50

#1 Arizona (28-3)
#2 Baylor (26-5)
#3 Providence (24-4)
#4 Gonzaga (24-3)
#5 Auburn (27-4)
#6 Kansas (25-6)
#7 Villanova (23-7)
#8 Wisconsin (24-6)
#9 Kentucky (25-6)
#10 Tennessee (23-7)
#11 Purdue (25-6)
#12 Texas Tech (23-8)
#13 UCLA (23-6)
#14 Colorado St (23-4)
#15 Connecticut (22-8)
#16 Duke (26-5)
#17 Murray St (27-2)
#18 Illinois (22-8)
#19 Texas (21-10)
#20 Arkansas (24-7)
#21 St Mary's CA (23-6)
#22 USC (25-6)
#23 Seton Hall (19-9)
#24 Houston (26-5)
#25 Marquette (19-11)

#26 Iowa St (20-11)
#27 Creighton (20-10)
#28 San Diego St (21-7)
#29 Michigan St (20-11)
#30 LSU (21-10)
#31 TCU (19-11)
#32 Iowa (22-9)
#33 Ohio St (19-10)
#34 Alabama (19-12)
#35 Boise St (23-7)
#36 Xavier (18-12)
#37 North Carolina (23-8)
#38 Wyoming (23-7)
#39 San Francisco (23-8)
#40 Michigan (17-13)
#41 Oklahoma (17-14)
#42 Davidson (24-5)
#43 Wake Forest (23-8)
#44 Rutgers (18-12)
#45 Miami FL (22-9)
#46 Texas A&M (19-11)
#47 Notre Dame (21-9)
#48 SMU (22-7)
#49 Florida (19-12)
#50 Indiana (18-12)

Big Ten

1. #8 Wisconsin (24-6, 15-5)
2. #11 Purdue (25-6, 14-6)
3. #18 Illinois (22-8, 15-5)
4. #29 Michigan St (20-11, 11-9)
5. #32 Iowa (22-9, 12-8)
6. #33 Ohio St (19-10, 12-8)
7. #40 Michigan (17-13, 11-9)
8. #44 Rutgers (18-12, 12-8)
9. #50 Indiana (18-12, 9-11)
10. #73 Maryland (15-16, 7-13)
11. #85 Northwestern (13-15, 7-13)
12. #89 Minnesota (13-16, 4-16)
13. #91 Penn St (12-16, 7-13)
14. #125 Nebraska (10-21, 4-16)

 

[Zak57]

This correlates so much better with the eye test than the real NET. Great stuff!!

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Awesome work man.

 

[fluoxetine]

03/11/2022

Top 50

#1 Arizona (29-3)
#2 Gonzaga (26-3)
#3 Kansas (27-6)
#4 Baylor (26-6)
#5 Providence (25-5)
#6 Villanova (25-7)
#7 Auburn (27-5)
#8 Texas Tech (25-8)
#9 Kentucky (26-6)
#10 Tennessee (24-7)
#11 Purdue (26-6)
#12 UCLA (25-6)
#13 Wisconsin (24-7)
#14 Duke (28-5)
#15 Connecticut (23-9)
#16 Colorado St (24-5)
#17 Arkansas (25-7)
#18 Murray St (27-2)
#19 St Mary's CA (24-7)
#20 Illinois (22-9)
#21 Creighton (22-10)
#22 Texas (21-11)
#23 USC (26-7)
#24 Houston (27-5)
#25 Seton Hall (20-10)

#26 San Diego St (23-7)
#27 Michigan St (22-11)
#28 Marquette (19-12)
#29 Iowa (24-9)
#30 Iowa St (20-12)
#31 TCU (20-12)
#32 Boise St (25-7)
#33 LSU (22-11)
#34 Alabama (19-13)
#35 Ohio St (19-11)
#36 Wyoming (24-8)
#37 North Carolina (24-9)
#38 Oklahoma (18-15)
#39 Xavier (18-13)
#40 Texas A&M (21-11)
#41 San Francisco (23-9)
#42 Davidson (25-5)
#43 Michigan (17-14)
#44 Indiana (20-12)
#45 Colorado (21-10)
#46 Miami FL (23-10)
#47 SMU (23-7)
#48 Rutgers (18-13)
#49 West Virginia (16-17)
#50 S Dakota St (28-4)

Big Ten

1. #11 Purdue (26-6, 14-6)
2. #13 Wisconsin (24-7, 15-5)
3. #20 Illinois (22-9, 15-5)
4. #27 Michigan St (22-11, 11-9)
5. #29 Iowa (24-9, 12-8)
6. #35 Ohio St (19-11, 12-8)
7. #43 Michigan (17-14, 11-9)
8. #44 Indiana (20-12, 9-11)
9. #48 Rutgers (18-13, 12-8)
10. #77 Maryland (15-17, 7-13)
11. #80 Penn St (14-17, 7-13)
12. #84 Northwestern (14-16, 7-13)
13. #90 Minnesota (13-17, 4-16)
14. #129 Nebraska (10-22, 4-16)

 

[RedTeam1994]

03/11/2022

Top 50

#1 Arizona (29-3)
#2 Gonzaga (26-3)
#3 Kansas (27-6)
#4 Baylor (26-6)
#5 Providence (25-5)
#6 Villanova (25-7)
#7 Auburn (27-5)
#8 Texas Tech (25-8)
#9 Kentucky (26-6)
#10 Tennessee (24-7)
#11 Purdue (26-6)
#12 UCLA (25-6)
#13 Wisconsin (24-7)
#14 Duke (28-5)
#15 Connecticut (23-9)
#16 Colorado St (24-5)
#17 Arkansas (25-7)
#18 Murray St (27-2)
#19 St Mary's CA (24-7)
#20 Illinois (22-9)
#21 Creighton (22-10)
#22 Texas (21-11)
#23 USC (26-7)
#24 Houston (27-5)
#25 Seton Hall (20-10)

#26 San Diego St (23-7)
#27 Michigan St (22-11)
#28 Marquette (19-12)
#29 Iowa (24-9)
#30 Iowa St (20-12)
#31 TCU (20-12)
#32 Boise St (25-7)
#33 LSU (22-11)
#34 Alabama (19-13)
#35 Ohio St (19-11)
#36 Wyoming (24-8)
#37 North Carolina (24-9)
#38 Oklahoma (18-15)
#39 Xavier (18-13)
#40 Texas A&M (21-11)
#41 San Francisco (23-9)
#42 Davidson (25-5)
#43 Michigan (17-14)
#44 Indiana (20-12)
#45 Colorado (21-10)
#46 Miami FL (23-10)
#47 SMU (23-7)
#48 Rutgers (18-13)
#49 West Virginia (16-17)
#50 S Dakota St (28-4)

Big Ten

1. #11 Purdue (26-6, 14-6)
2. #13 Wisconsin (24-7, 15-5)
3. #20 Illinois (22-9, 15-5)
4. #27 Michigan St (22-11, 11-9)
5. #29 Iowa (24-9, 12-8)
6. #35 Ohio St (19-11, 12-8)
7. #43 Michigan (17-14, 11-9)
8. #44 Indiana (20-12, 9-11)
9. #48 Rutgers (18-13, 12-8)
10. #77 Maryland (15-17, 7-13)
11. #80 Penn St (14-17, 7-13)
12. #84 Northwestern (14-16, 7-13)
13. #90 Minnesota (13-17, 4-16)
14. #129 Nebraska (10-22, 4-16)

RU finishes 4th in league yet 9th in this list

frankly - makes sense to me ;)

I mean RU deserves to be lower than its conference standings. We DID have some REALLY bad losses in the OOC schedule and some loses to Big10 basement teams.

#48 feels right - makes a hell of a lot more sense than the NET which is laughable

 

[fluoxetine]

RU finishes 4th in league yet 9th in this list

frankly - makes sense to me ;)

I mean RU deserves to be lower than its conference standings. We DID have some REALLY bad losses in the OOC schedule and some loses to Big10 basement teams.

#48 feels right - makes a hell of a lot more sense than the NET which is laughable

We beat every team above us on my list in the Big Ten and lost to every team below us except Nebraska.

 

[RUBlackout]

You should 100% put this out there on social media..to me it is a much better model and one that should be used to determine ranking

 

[RedTeam1994]

We beat every team above us on my list in the Big Ten and lost to every team below us except Nebraska.

crazy

 

[fluoxetine]

03/16/2022

Top 50

#1 Arizona (31-3)
#2 Gonzaga (26-3)
#3 Kansas (28-6)
#4 Baylor (26-6)
#5 Villanova (26-7)
#6 Providence (25-5)
#7 Tennessee (26-7)
#8 Auburn (27-5)
#9 Texas Tech (25-9)
#10 Kentucky (26-7)
#11 Purdue (27-7)
#12 Wisconsin (24-7)
#13 UCLA (25-7)
#14 Connecticut (23-9)
#15 Colorado St (24-5)
#16 Duke (28-6)
#17 Murray St (27-2)
#18 Houston (29-5)
#19 Arkansas (25-8)
#20 Illinois (22-9)
#21 Texas (21-11)
#22 St Mary's CA (24-7)
#23 Iowa (26-9)
#24 USC (26-7)
#25 Creighton (22-11)

#26 Seton Hall (20-10)
#27 Marquette (19-12)
#28 Michigan St (22-12)
#29 Boise St (26-7)
#30 Iowa St (20-12)
#31 TCU (20-12)
#32 San Diego St (23-8)
#33 LSU (22-11)
#34 North Carolina (24-9)
#35 Alabama (19-13)
#36 Ohio St (19-11)
#37 Texas A&M (23-12)
#38 Oklahoma (19-15)
#39 Xavier (19-13)
#40 San Francisco (23-9)
#41 Wyoming (24-9)
#42 Michigan (17-14)
#43 Indiana (21-13)
#44 Davidson (26-6)
#45 Notre Dame (22-10)
#46 Miami FL (23-10)
#47 West Virginia (16-17)
#48 Memphis (21-10)
#49 Wake Forest (24-9)
#50 Florida (20-13)

Big Ten

1. #11 Purdue (27-7, 14-6)
2. #12 Wisconsin (24-7, 15-5)
3. #20 Illinois (22-9, 15-5)
4. #23 Iowa (26-9, 12-8)
5. #28 Michigan St (22-12, 11-9)
6. #36 Ohio St (19-11, 12-8)
7. #42 Michigan (17-14, 11-9)
8. #43 Indiana (21-13, 9-11)
9. #54 Rutgers (18-14, 12-8)
10. #76 Maryland (15-17, 7-13)
11. #79 Penn St (14-17, 7-13)
12. #83 Northwestern (14-16, 7-13)
13. #88 Minnesota (13-17, 4-16)
14. #128 Nebraska (10-22, 4-16)

 

[fluoxetine]

04/04/2022 - Final

Top 50

#1 Kansas (34-6)
#2 Arizona (33-4)
#3 Villanova (30-8)
#4 Providence (27-6)
#5 Gonzaga (28-4)
#6 Baylor (27-7)
#7 Tennessee (27-8)
#8 Texas Tech (27-10)
#9 Duke (32-7)
#10 Auburn (28-6)
#11 Purdue (29-8)
#12 Wisconsin (25-8)
#13 Houston (32-6)
#14 Kentucky (26-8)
#15 UCLA (27-8)
#16 North Carolina (29-10)
#17 Connecticut (23-10)
#18 Arkansas (28-9)
#19 Texas (22-12)
#20 Creighton (23-12)
#21 Illinois (23-10)
#22 Iowa St (22-13)
#23 Colorado St (24-6)
#24 St Mary's CA (25-8)
#25 Seton Hall (20-11)

#26 TCU (21-13)
#27 Iowa (26-10)
#28 Michigan St (23-13)
#29 USC (26-8)
#30 Marquette (19-13)
#31 Murray St (28-3)
#32 Xavier (23-13)
#33 Miami FL (26-11)
#34 Boise St (26-8)
#35 Texas A&M (26-13)
#36 Ohio St (20-12)
#37 San Diego St (23-9)
#38 LSU (22-12)
#39 Michigan (19-15)
#40 Oklahoma (19-16)
#41 Alabama (19-14)
#42 Notre Dame (23-11)
#43 Wake Forest (25-10)
#44 Indiana (21-14)
#45 Wyoming (24-9)
#46 Virginia Tech (23-13)
#47 Davidson (26-7)
#48 Memphis (22-11)
#49 San Francisco (23-10)
#50 St Bonaventure (23-10)

Big Ten

1. #11 Purdue (29-8, 14-6)
2. #12 Wisconsin (25-8, 15-5)
3. #21 Illinois (23-10, 15-5)
4. #27 Iowa (26-10, 12-8)
5. #28 Michigan St (23-13, 11-9)
6. #36 Ohio St (20-12, 12-8)
7. #39 Michigan (19-15, 11-9)
8. #44 Indiana (21-14, 9-11)
9. #54 Rutgers (18-14, 12-8)
10. #77 Maryland (15-17, 7-13)
11. #79 Penn St (14-17, 7-13)
12. #82 Northwestern (14-16, 7-13)
13. #92 Minnesota (13-17, 4-16)
14. #130 Nebraska (10-22, 4-16)

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

04/04/2022 - Final

Top 50

#1 Kansas (34-6)
#2 Arizona (33-4)
#3 Villanova (30-8)
#4 Providence (27-6)
#5 Gonzaga (28-4)
#6 Baylor (27-7)
#7 Tennessee (27-8)
#8 Texas Tech (27-10)
#9 Duke (32-7)
#10 Auburn (28-6)
#11 Purdue (29-8)
#12 Wisconsin (25-8)
#13 Houston (32-6)
#14 Kentucky (26-8)
#15 UCLA (27-8)
#16 North Carolina (29-10)
#17 Connecticut (23-10)
#18 Arkansas (28-9)
#19 Texas (22-12)
#20 Creighton (23-12)
#21 Illinois (23-10)
#22 Iowa St (22-13)
#23 Colorado St (24-6)
#24 St Mary's CA (25-8)
#25 Seton Hall (20-11)

#26 TCU (21-13)
#27 Iowa (26-10)
#28 Michigan St (23-13)
#29 USC (26-8)
#30 Marquette (19-13)
#31 Murray St (28-3)
#32 Xavier (23-13)
#33 Miami FL (26-11)
#34 Boise St (26-8)
#35 Texas A&M (26-13)
#36 Ohio St (20-12)
#37 San Diego St (23-9)
#38 LSU (22-12)
#39 Michigan (19-15)
#40 Oklahoma (19-16)
#41 Alabama (19-14)
#42 Notre Dame (23-11)
#43 Wake Forest (25-10)
#44 Indiana (21-14)
#45 Wyoming (24-9)
#46 Virginia Tech (23-13)
#47 Davidson (26-7)
#48 Memphis (22-11)
#49 San Francisco (23-10)
#50 St Bonaventure (23-10)

Big Ten

1. #11 Purdue (29-8, 14-6)
2. #12 Wisconsin (25-8, 15-5)
3. #21 Illinois (23-10, 15-5)
4. #27 Iowa (26-10, 12-8)
5. #28 Michigan St (23-13, 11-9)
6. #36 Ohio St (20-12, 12-8)
7. #39 Michigan (19-15, 11-9)
8. #44 Indiana (21-14, 9-11)
9. #54 Rutgers (18-14, 12-8)
10. #77 Maryland (15-17, 7-13)
11. #79 Penn St (14-17, 7-13)
12. #82 Northwestern (14-16, 7-13)
13. #92 Minnesota (13-17, 4-16)
14. #130 Nebraska (10-22, 4-16)

Not sure if you'd like to adjust your metrics to a more common sense factor, but Seton Hall is #25th and TCU is 26th.

1st round of the NCAAs this year.....TCU 69, SHU 42

TCU 69-42 Seton Hall (Mar 18, 2022) Game Recap - ESPN

Expert recap and game analysis of the TCU Horned Frogs vs. Seton Hall Pirates NCAAM game from March 18, 2022 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

 

[RUJMM78]

Where is St.Peters in the final ranking?They defeated Kentucky,Murray State and Purdue.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Is barely beating a Q4 team at home really that much better than barely losing to a Q1 school on the road?

it should be slightly better

 

[kcg88]

Not sure if you'd like to adjust your metrics to a more common sense factor, but Seton Hall is #25th and TCU is 26th.

1st round of the NCAAs this year.....TCU 69, SHU 42

TCU 69-42 Seton Hall (Mar 18, 2022) Game Recap - ESPN

Expert recap and game analysis of the TCU Horned Frogs vs. Seton Hall Pirates NCAAM game from March 18, 2022 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

lol

 

[Gudenham]

Not sure if you'd like to adjust your metrics to a more common sense factor, but Seton Hall is #25th and TCU is 26th.

1st round of the NCAAs this year.....TCU 69, SHU 42

TCU 69-42 Seton Hall (Mar 18, 2022) Game Recap - ESPN

Expert recap and game analysis of the TCU Horned Frogs vs. Seton Hall Pirates NCAAM game from March 18, 2022 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

"Not sure if you'd like to adjust your metrics to a more common sense factor, but Rutgers is #56 and Lafayette is 310th.

Regular season at the RAC this year......Lafayette 53, Rutgers 51."