A realistic look at our schedule for 2016

[Knight Shift]

Although your point about on-field contributions is well-taken, here's the problem as it relates to the comparison of these teams:

You listed 3 blue-chip kids that have contributed for Maryland. Over that same time period, the blue-chip kids signed by Rutgers are Barnwell (gone) and Ford (gone).

No matter how you slice it, MD has brought in more talent cumulatively over the past 4-5 years, and it stands to reason its current roster is more talented as a result.

I see your three blue chip kids for Maryland and raise you two blue chip kids forRutgers-Chris Muller, Darius Hamilton (both from 2012);
Maryland 2012- Abner Logan - gone (bust); Stefon Diggs-gone to NFL; Wes Brown (bust-suspended multiple times)

Your narrative sucks in my opinion. And I really like Cheesesteaks a lot. But they suck in Vegas. :boxing: Peace--just jawing with you. We will agree to disagree.

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

I see your three blue chip kids for Maryland and raise you two blue chip kids forRutgers-Chris Muller, Darius Hamilton (both from 2012);
Maryland 2012- Abner Logan - gone (bust); Stefon Diggs-gone to NFL; Wes Brown (bust-suspended multiple times)

Your narrative sucks in my opinion. And I really like Cheesesteaks a lot. But they suck in Vegas. :boxing: Peace--just jawing with you. We will agree to disagree.

Ha, it's all good. I'm not trying to flame here either, but can we really include Hamilton as someone who has lived up to his star rating? Third-team All-AAC as a sophomore with 11 TFL and 4.5 sacks, honorable mention B1G as a junior with 11 TFL and 6 sacks, and missed virtually all of last season. And he is still not practicing in full ahead of this season. He's a wait-and-see guy for me. I'm not calling him a bust, especially because he can't control injuries, but he's yet to set the world on fire.

 

[RUHouston]

Why do you think the cupboard is bare? Based on what?

247sports did a report where they analyzed the recruiting results of each B1G school over the years up until Dec. of 2015. Rutgers was 7th overall in the quality of recruits. What was pointed out was the lack of quality coaching to get the most out of that talent. Mining NJ recruits are better than majority of recruits that come out of Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, etc. Like most here say if a 3 star kid from Florida was playing in NJ he would be a 4 star. The same can be said for NJ kids in those other B1G state with the exception of Ohio, Maryland and Pa.

I'm not knocking any of our kids, to be clear. But unless I'm mistaken, we had players who made bad choices and were kicked off the team. The What and Why aren't important. What's important, to me, was that our team was left depleted and it starts and ends with Who is running the team.

I'm certainly no expert but I've also hear we had depth problems in other areas, too. Ergo my opinion.

 

[Knight Shift]

Ha, it's all good. I'm not trying to flame here either, but can we really include Hamilton as someone who has lived up to his star rating? Third-team All-AAC as a sophomore with 11 TFL and 4.5 sacks, honorable mention B1G as a junior with 11 TFL and 6 sacks, and missed virtually all of last season. And he is still not practicing in full ahead of this season. He's a wait-and-see guy for me. I'm not calling him a bust, especially because he can't control injuries, but he's yet to set the world on fire.

I can't take a poster seriously when their avatar is a frowning cyclops.

Iowa is an example of a program that succeeds without a lot of 4-5 star talent. Taking a quick glance back at their classes, they have had very few 4/5 star recruits, and they did not do to badly last year. Chris Ash is from Iowa, so we have that in common with Iowa and going for us. I'm going to take that to the bank and say we play for the Division championship next year. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

 

[dollarbill]

Are you saying we are home underdogs against New Mexico? That's hard to believe. $$$$

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

I can't take a poster seriously when their avatar is a frowning cyclops.

Iowa is an example of a program that succeeds without a lot of 4-5 star talent. Taking a quick glance back at their classes, they have had very few 4/5 star recruits, and they did not do to badly last year. Chris Ash is from Iowa, so we have that in common with Iowa and going for us. I'm going to take that to the bank and say we play for the Division championship next year. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

See, maybe we're just looking at the same thing in two different ways. You point to Iowa and say, a team can "succeed" without a lot of 4- and 5-star recruits. I look at Iowa, see that it's averaged 7.47 wins per season under Kirk Ferentz and say, that's what happens when your recruiting is nothing more than average: your teams are average.

Every year people point to a team that comes out of nowhere with unheralded recruits, or the random 2-star that becomes a first-round pick in the NFL Draft, but these are aberrations, not evidence that stars don't matter. In fact, it's just the opposite. Data analysis, whether done individually or at the team level, shows that IN GENERAL, higher-ranked recruits have a better chance of reaching the NFL and higher-ranked recruiting classes have a better chance of forming teams that defeat teams with lower-ranked prospects.

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

Are you saying we are home underdogs against New Mexico? That's hard to believe. $$$$

I'd be surprised if RU is not favored in this game, but it's not a gimme.

 

[jason21psu]

According to ESPN here are your projected percentages for winning individual games (best to worst):

1. Howard- 99.4%
2. New Mexico - 79.5%
3. Illinois - 65.5%
4. Indiana - 60.7%
5. Maryland - 45.4%
6. Minnesota - 38.0%
7. Iowa - 33.7%
8. Penn State - 31.7%
9. Michigan State - 18.5%
10. Michigan - 14.8%
11. Ohio State - 8.6%
12. Washington - 7.5%

 

[Abro1975]

All I see is a GREAT SCHEDULE, w 1 definite win, maybe 2 or 3 definite losses, the rest..... a Fist Fight on the Line of Scrimmage, and I like our OL's and DL's . Can't wait for CFB season ! First weekend has some fabulous match ups !

First D1 game LESS than a month a way..... Aug 26 , Hawaii vs California in Syndney , Austrailia ! wow ! The Dingo did it !

http://www.californiagoldenblogs.co...alia-a-decision-by-cal-athletics-even-i-could

 

[cubuffsdoug]

Looking at the raw data, it is clear MD is more talented than RU. What that means on the field is up for debate, but take a look at the data from 247...

2013
- Maryland: 7th in B1G, 3 four/five stars, 83.51 avg
- Rutgers: 10th in B1G, 1 four/five star, 80.30 avg (lowest in B1G)

2014
- Maryland: 7th in B1G, 4 four/five stars, 84.53 avg
- Rutgers: 10th in B1G, 1 four/five star, 79.40 avg (lowest in B1G)

2015
- Maryland: 8th in B1G, 2 four/five stars, 84.00 avg
- Rutgers: 11th in B1G, 1 four/five star, 82.95 avg (3rd lowest in B1G)

2016
- Maryland: 7th in B1G, 3 four/five stars, 84.40 avg
- Rutgers: 12th in B1G, 0 four/five stars, 82.65 avg (3rd lowest in B1G)

Make no mistake, Ash has a hole to dig out of in terms of the roster's overall talent level.

More talent for Maryland should mean more wins than Rutgers a based on how you present data, but somehow that didn't quite workout for the terps or you for this argument. Here's how both Maryland and Rutgers performed on the field with talent at hand.

Maryland
2015: 3-9
2014: 7-6

Rutgers
2015: 4-8
2014: 8-5

I only compared the records from the time they both entered the B1G. They share a lot of common opponents for easier comparison, but if you want to go back to 2012 to include the other recruiting class... fine.

Maryland
2013: 7-6
2012: 4-8

Rutgers
2013: 6-7
2012: 9-4

Also, star ratings don't give the full picture. Some players don't live up to the expectation, while others overachieve like the McCourty twins for Rutgers or in some cases undervalued like Ray Rice. Let's not underestimate the value of good coaching. I think you missed this one very important point in attempt to paint the story to show your narrative. Another thing crossed my mind about this whole debate. I thought the ratings from the Maryland classes may be better because of their association with the ACC while Rutgers was with the BE/AAC... hmm. We have seen in the past a highly rated kid commits to Rutgers and suddenly he drops in the rankings. Anyway, how about them apples?[cheers]

 

[cubuffsdoug]

According to ESPN here are your projected percentages for winning individual games (best to worst):

1. Howard- 99.4%
2. New Mexico - 79.5%
3. Illinois - 65.5%
4. Indiana - 60.7%
5. Maryland - 45.4%
6. Minnesota - 38.0%
7. Iowa - 33.7%
8. Penn State - 31.7%
9. Michigan State - 18.5%
10. Michigan - 14.8%
11. Ohio State - 8.6%
12. Washington - 7.5%

Washington is not Rutgers toughest game. Hell, their beatwriters don't give them that much credit. They think UW is a season away. Please listen to the podcast and tell me if the local guys are dumber than the national one: http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/...-rising-expectations-for-uw-football-in-2016/

I think much of this is based on Vegas odds. If they really had time to dig deep into each and every team, the crap you find out would shock you. I'm sure opinions and outlooks would change like did you know Minnesota was 10th nationally in total offense in 2014? In 2015 with 9 starters back the unit dropped to 103rd in the nation. Minnesota returns 6 starters on offense for the 2016. I have not read or heard any expert state this may be an issue for the Gophers. A lot of idiots just repeat Minnesota is going to fine. I can give info that puts just about every team into question with the exception of Michigan, Ohio State and maybe Michigan State.

 

[terrehawk]

See, maybe we're just looking at the same thing in two different ways. You point to Iowa and say, a team can "succeed" without a lot of 4- and 5-star recruits. I look at Iowa, see that it's averaged 7.47 wins per season under Kirk Ferentz and say, that's what happens when your recruiting is nothing more than average: your teams are average.

Every year people point to a team that comes out of nowhere with unheralded recruits, or the random 2-star that becomes a first-round pick in the NFL Draft, but these are aberrations, not evidence that stars don't matter. In fact, it's just the opposite. Data analysis, whether done individually or at the team level, shows that IN GENERAL, higher-ranked recruits have a better chance of reaching the NFL and higher-ranked recruiting classes have a better chance of forming teams that defeat teams with lower-ranked prospects.

Fair point but in the last 15 years Iowa has had either 5 or 6 top 10 finishes. I don't think the average fan realizes that about Iowa.

I suppose you have to take the bad with the good when you aren't getting the top-tier talent.

But I do think Iowa has a definite recipe for Success. Most of the reasons they were underachieving in many of those years, sadly, had to do with poor game-day coaching.

Ferentz is Notorious for being a poor game day coach. Everybody talks about how many close losses Nebraska had last year, that's been such a common occurrence for Iowa under Kirk Ferentz. So many many close losses that just had you scratching your head.

Before last year he made a ton of changes and kind of created a new Kirk Ferentz. Combine that with the facilities that are now as good as anywhere in the country and hopefully they are able to win more than their share of those close games going forward.

 

[terrehawk]

I've never liked Vegas odds for predicting Seasons necessarily. I supposed its ok preseason but when it actually comes down to game time I believe they're trying to get money on both sides of the fence because they get a cut of all the action. They don't care who wins or loses they just want you to bet

 

[cubuffsdoug]

I've never liked Vegas odds for predicting Seasons necessarily. I supposed its ok preseason but when it actually comes down to game time I believe they're trying to get money on both sides of the fence because they get a cut of all the action. They don't care who wins or loses they just want you to bet

Cheesesteak Vegas and few other posters are counting on the average person to believe everything they see coming out of Vegas (& ESPiN) as gospel.

 

[koleszar]

Ferentz is Notorious for being a poor game day coach. Everybody talks about how many close losses Nebraska had last year, that's been such a common occurrence for Iowa under Kirk Ferentz. So many many close losses that just had you scratching your head.

Before last year he made a ton of changes and kind of created a new Kirk Ferentz. Combine that with the facilities that are now as good as anywhere in the country and hopefully they are able to win more than their share of those close games going forward.

Well you guys did win quite a few 4 to 5 by the skin of your teeth last year. So I guess you made up for a few of those close losses. Close losses and wins happen every year. 2014 we won a few of our close games and went 8-5. Last year we lost three close games and finished 4-8. These things tend to even out for the average teams over the course of a decade.

 

[jason21psu]

Washington is not Rutgers toughest game. Hell, their beatwriters don't give them that much credit. They think UW is a season away. Please listen to the podcast and tell me if the local guys are dumber than the national one: http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/...-rising-expectations-for-uw-football-in-2016/

I think much of this is based on Vegas odds. If they really had time to dig deep into each and every team, the crap you find out would shock you. I'm sure opinions and outlooks would change like did you know Minnesota was 10th nationally in total offense in 2014? In 2015 with 9 starters back the unit dropped to 103rd in the nation. Minnesota returns 6 starters on offense for the 2016. I have not read or heard any expert state this may be an issue for the Gophers. A lot of idiots just repeat Minnesota is going to fine. I can give info that puts just about every team into question with the exception of Michigan, Ohio State and maybe Michigan State.

I don't think UW is either. I was just presenting the info as I thought the data was relevant to discuss on this thread. The only reasons I can see it being OMG difficult is the cross country trip but that is over hyped and more of a factor coming east than going west.

I'm interpreting anything greater than about 80% being a heavy favorite, anything lower than 20% being a heavy dog and anything else being a "toss-up". With that you have 2 Ws, 4 Ls and 6 toss ups. Split the toss ups 50/50 => 5-7 season. I'm interested in seeing how well the % correlate. I wish I could find the old data but I'll have to start capturing it going forward. Anyway my impression is most people here would consider a 5-7 season as reasonable.

EDIT: For PSU they also have you & Purdue on par for our winning percentage and I don't think anyone in their right mind really thinks for us a trip to W. Lafeyette will be as difficult a trip to Piscataway.

 

[RUsince52]

Nobody likes to lose, but when it happens and it will happen, hopefully we learn something from those games. I think in year one of Ash, that will be important and the team can improve accordingly.
Too many unknowns with a new system to predict what will happen, but some success will certainly move us forward.
I'm thinking 5 or 6 wins would be over the top.

 

[RUMountie]

They have not looked more talented on the field the last two seasons.

Yeah, who on MD scared anyone besides Likely? Their D line looked more FCS than FBS and their O line was also below par. QB was ok as were most of their skill players except Diggs. I expect to beat teams like MD if Ash and his staff are good game day coaches which I think they are.

 

[RBNY87]

The key to the season is being more competitive with the best teams. You are going to have years when you win more close games (2014) and lose close games (2015) but we need to get better to the top tier teams to make progress. If we have surprising good year, this could lead to some unrealistic expectations for the coming years. I think the rebuild is going to take 5 years.

 

[Yeah Baby]

Why do you think the cupboard is bare? Based on what?

247sports did a report where they analyzed the recruiting results of each B1G school over the years up until Dec. of 2015. Rutgers was 7th overall in the quality of recruits. What was pointed out was the lack of quality coaching to get the most out of that talent. Mining NJ recruits are better than majority of recruits that come out of Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, etc. Like most here say if a 3 star kid from Florida was playing in NJ he would be a 4 star. The same can be said for NJ kids in those other B1G state with the exception of Ohio, Maryland and Pa.

Totally agree cupboard is nowhere near bare. Our D line is very deep and experienced. Hopefully they can keep us in many games. Depth is an issue in some spots but better than we were in most of the last 10 years. To take the next step we need to add depth and that is recruiting plus player development and retention.

 

[Scarlet_Scourge]

What has me worried (as far as players)

Who will be the QB? QB can make or break a team or even a season. This 1st year we don't have a clear fit, but thankfully most of our pro-set guys will graduate after this season, so this should be an issue moving forward but it sure is now.

Kicking Game.... I believe we have a new kicker this year, no idea if he is good or not.

Secondary - Last year our defense was the worse in Rutgers history, yes going back to 1869... So I am not sure how much they have improve or how much they can even improve. Thankfully, we have some of the best defensive minds in CFB now working with them, but I am not sure how much they have to work with here.

Who will step up at WR? Last year it was a stark contrast when LC wasn't in the game. That is a bit scary. I mean Grant has a lot of promise with his speed and he should be lethal in the spread. But we haven't seen him play WR much. So who knows?

How many games will it take to click with the brand new offense? defense?

Same as above but with the new coaching staff.

There are a lot of question marks. It will make this season both exciting and nerve wrecking.

 

[Scarlet_Scourge]

This was posted in July but I still stand behind it other than MSU turn out to be not as good this year.

I am only bumping this so we can see the forest from the trees.

 

[kjb32812]

This was posted in July but I still stand behind it other than MSU turn out to be not as good this year.

I am only bumping this so we can see the forest from the trees.

Great thread. Would read again.

 

[RUsince52]

What has me worried (as far as players)

Who will be the QB? QB can make or break a team or even a season. This 1st year we don't have a clear fit, but thankfully most of our pro-set guys will graduate after this season, so this should be an issue moving forward but it sure is now.

Kicking Game.... I believe we have a new kicker this year, no idea if he is good or not.

Secondary - Last year our defense was the worse in Rutgers history, yes going back to 1869... So I am not sure how much they have improve or how much they can even improve. Thankfully, we have some of the best defensive minds in CFB now working with them, but I am not sure how much they have to work with here.

Who will step up at WR? Last year it was a stark contrast when LC wasn't in the game. That is a bit scary. I mean Grant has a lot of promise with his speed and he should be lethal in the spread. But we haven't seen him play WR much. So who knows?

How many games will it take to click with the brand new offense? defense?

Same as above but with the new coaching staff.

There are a lot of question marks. It will make this season both exciting and nerve wrecking.

At this point you're half right. Lots and lots of questions and NO answers outside of the talent level.