According to Kenpom Rutgers has been the luckiest team in America

[TheAtlanticFiles]

Pikiell has gotten away with 2 wins that were closer than they needed to be.

Need to tighten things up or we will not be so lucky come BIG TEN play

https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankLuck

 

[Mr_Twister]

That’s a new one for me. Can’t ever recall Rutgers teams, especially hoops, ever being considered lucky, except perhaps in a small way when ref Tim Higgins was assigned to another contest.

 

[ScarletDave]

We are in the fact that when we hear our name announced historically on Sunday in March we’ll think back to how unlucky it would have been if the air conditioning was blowing the other way in the RAC during the Bryant 3 pointer and it went in

 

[RU848789]

KenPom is essentially meaningless until maybe halfway through the season, as they have no relevant data on the actual current team's performance until then - ergo, garbage in, garbage out. Wish people would stop citing it this early in the season.

 

[RUBigFrank]

KenPom is essentially meaningless until maybe halfway through the season, as they have no relevant data on the actual current team's performance until then - ergo, garbage in, garbage out. Wish people would stop citing it this early in the season.

very true - BUT YOU DO LIKE TO SEE THE PROGRESSION AS THE SEASON MOVES ON.

 

[Scarlet Knut]

That’s a new one for me. Can’t ever recall Rutgers teams, especially hoops, ever being considered lucky, except perhaps in a small way when ref Tim Higgins was assigned to another contest.

Have to agree with you on Tim!

 

[Westcoast]

No one outside of Rutgers recalls that Sanders missed a shot at the buzzer that would have beaten MSU on the road 2 years ago. Instead we lost in OT. And it was just another loss on our record.

I would say we were less "lucky" against Bryant than we were "unlucky" against Iowa last year. So things like that even out in the end.

And I wouldn't call last nights win lucky at all. The guys made big plays down the stretch that secured the win. Geo's blocks - again! Tighter D. They stepped up.

A win is a win is a win.

That being said, the guys need to play better perimeter defense against these smaller teams that are going to shoot a ton of 3s.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

No one outside of Rutgers recalls that Sanders missed a shot at the buzzer that would have beaten MSU on the road 2 years ago. Instead we lost in OT. And it was just another loss on our record.

I would say we were less "lucky" against Bryant than we were "unlucky" against Iowa last year. So things like that even out in the end.

And I wouldn't call last nights win lucky at all. The guys made big plays down the stretch that secured the win. Geo's blocks - again! Tighter D. They stepped up.

A win is a win is a win.

That being said, the guys need to play better perimeter defense against these smaller teams that are going to shoot a ton of 3s.

 

[Upstream]

How does KenPom define luck?

 

[RUich]

Every poll is pretty much conjecture and mirrors early in the season. But, sports fans need them so we get them.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with getting some good luck. Especially when you are a program that usually deals with so much bad luck!

 

[JavaDunk18]

Yea, we were really lucky in that Iowa game at home last year...

 

[kcg88]

Yea, we were really lucky in that Iowa game at home last year...

Geo's three pointer bounced off the rim twice before going in.

 

[dkostus]

Geo's three pointer bounced off the rim twice before going in.

Maybe your boy Jacob Young would have hit a more certain shot.

 

[kcg88]

Maybe your boy Jacob Young would have hit a more certain shot.

My boy?

 

[waretown]

How does KenPom define luck?

i will take any win over any moral victory, no one looks at the record and says you ahve a luck ratio of????

 

[bwrlaw]

This from someone who probably didn't watch the games. Only saw the point spread and final score. Lucky or not, I will take the wins.

 

[RutHut]

We need to bank in 10 three point shots next game due to the law of averages.

 

[tjb]

How does KenPom define luck?

From his accompanying blog:

Luck ... is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest.
​

To others' points, whether one's record is better or worse than expected is based on ratings that are still heavily influenced by his pre-season ratings. Though he has a methodology to that (that he doesn't fully disclose) and he is presumably tweaking that methodology as he gathers more seasons of data, they are still not based on actual results and they have an effect until January.

 

[FrankZ]

Rutgers most lucky?

 

[JavaDunk18]

Geo’s shot wasn’t luck. Good touch on ball like that in Toronto game 7..The Iowa shot was a freak bounce, aka luck...