Steve Pikiell will have to deal with something he has never had to next year: Expectations

[biazza38]

The tournament can go either way.
The OSU Greg Oden/Mike Conley team needed a late three against Xavier to avoid a second round defeat
The Zion Duke team nearly lost at the buzzer in the second round to UCF
The Kevin Durant team lost in the second round of the tournament.
Last year, Duke had 3 of the top 5 recruits and lost in the second round to Tennessee. I don’t think some of you really understand just how difficult it is to advance in the tournament. Sometimes you get a good draw and it’s great. But once you get out of the first round, the team you face in the second round is either a top 25 team, or someone who just beat a top 25 team.
I have higher expectations, but A LOT of people who clearly don’t know the tournament are trying to write Pike’s obituary.

 

[bethlehemfan]

The tournament can go either way.
The OSU Greg Oden/Mike Conley team needed a late three against Xavier to avoid a second round defeat
The Zion Duke team nearly lost at the buzzer in the second round to UCF
The Kevin Durant team lost in the second round of the tournament.
Last year, Duke had 3 of the top 5 recruits and lost in the second round to Tennessee. I don’t think some of you really understand just how difficult it is to advance in the tournament. Sometimes you get a good draw and it’s great. But once you get out of the first round, the team you face in the second round is either a top 25 team, or someone who just beat a top 25 team.
I have higher expectations, but A LOT of people who clearly don’t know the tournament are trying to write Pike’s obituary.

It’s a dumb argument that people who don’t understand probability and statistics like to make.

 

[RUInsanity]

A year with a bunch of productive players returning.

I think people are absolutely crazy to be optimistic about next year.

I've read this board a long time. Could be wrong but I can't remember a time when you were ever optimistic about "next year".

 

[rutgers1998]

Nice post for a fair weather basketball fan

 

[ancienthooper]

IDK man, seton hall is doing it with zero NIL. Sha is a really good coach.

Say what? SHU has been using “NIL” money long before NIL.

 

[biazza38]

IDK man, seton hall is doing it with zero NIL. Sha is a really good coach.

Then go be a Seton Hall fan.
Didnt we beat them this year after losing by a billion to Wake

 

[ancienthooper]

Hurley isn't leaving UConn where he can dominate the Big East versus competing in the SEC.UConn is perceived as a elite college basketball program based on the number of national championships.They are bye far the best basketball program in the northeast.The starting five has players that all can score 20 points which is rare in college basketball.

Hurley won’t leave UConn for Kentucky? That’s funny. There would be vapor trails exiting Storrs and Jersey City.

 

[needmorecowbell]

A lot of nonsense in this tread. Not surprised considering who started it. Pike isn’t going anywhere. He just pulled the greatest recruiting class in Rutgers history in the most difficult time to recruit ever. Just repeat that to yourself a few hundred times if you ever find yourself questioning Pike.

As for expectations… Pike should be expected to put a team out there that competes at the highest level every night. As the talent improves (and boy is it improving), so will the quality of the product.

Some of you are “expecting” a different offense. It’s not happening. Pike wants to play elite defense, get out in transition with very good athletes and get easy buckets. He’s not running a complex offense based on timing with multiple variations and counters. Maybe one day he will change but considering he’s been coaching for a while, I don’t see it happening.

 

[bigmatt718]

Hurley won’t leave UConn for Kentucky? That’s funny. There would be vapor trails exiting Storrs and Jersey City.

Outside of an NBA gig, Kentucky is one of maybe a Top 3 job you can score.

 

[Scarlet83]

I think things are different now though, no?

When have we ever had

1) top 25 salary
2) top 10 facility
3) can pay kids as well as we can?

And of course top 10 home court

Top 25 salary? Prove it.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I've read this board a long time. Could be wrong but I can't remember a time when you were ever optimistic about "next year".

I was really optimistic middle of last year.

Cant let that happen again!!!

 

[RacPac12]

I'm not sure if the judgement is being made off one season or his body of work. I give him a total pass on his first 4 years considering what he took over. The covid season I firmly believe he wouldve made the tourney despite some bracketologists saying we wouldn't have made it due to resume lacking road wins. But we've regressed every year since. The question you have to ask is did he hit his ceiling? If we cant get past the first weekend next year it's a valid question after nearly a decade imo, right?

We're competitive but it's time to take the next step and get out of the first weekend. If we don't get to the sweet 16 next year I think the season is a total failure. You don't bring in multiple lottery picks to sneak in on the bubble.

It’s tough to say we need to make the sweet 16 next year in a vacuum. I’m going to look at the season as a whole. Like if we win the B1G tourney and lose as a 2 seed to a 7 seed who has a hot game from 3, I call that a successful year.

But I think your overall point will become valid if we don’t get out of the first weekend eventually. I’m just not sure when that point will be and is dependent on a lot of other factors like recruiting and competitiveness in the B1G.

 

[trotter]

I’ll be honest, I really didnt pay attention to our basketball program this year. It was obvious coming into the year we’d be pretty bad, it was always about 2024-2025 season.

With that said, 2024-2025 is upon us. It will be year 9 of pike which is crazy when you think about it. Hes been here nearly a decade!

9 years in, the fanbase has been uber patient, theyve placed very little expectations on him but all that changes next year, maybe even moreso with how this season went. Fair or not.

What pikes going to be working with in year 9

1) Two projected lottery picks
2) a top 10 practice facility in America
3) a top 10 home court atmosphere in america
4) a top 25(?) salary in america

What pikes done
1) 1 ncaa tourney win
2) made us an average big ten program

What the fans expect
- at minimum a trip to the sweet 16

My questions

1) What happens if pike doesnt get us to at least the sweet 16 next year? Does the fan base turn on him?

2) What happens if were not better than a 7 seed? How will the fan base react?

3) What if a slow start to the year with a talented albeit inexperienced group leads to a young group having to win a handful of road games in big ten play to get into the tourney?

Ive seen teams with more talent struggle. This is pikes hardest job yet. He has a tall task ahead

The only way Pike gets fired is if we finish in the bottom quarter of the B1G 3 out of 4 years.

 

[Scarlet83]

Kyk is not an ru basketball fan. His bball heart pumps blue. He also said similar things in past seasons and was wrong.

the little smurf kyk is wrong more often than a broken clock.

 

[Scangg]

Thanks man. Here's the full list if anyone's interested...

Rutgers 2024 - #?
UNC 2024 - #?
Kentucky 2023 - #16 - Current season, projected 5 seed

Duke 2022 - #7 - 5 seed, R32
Memphis 2021 - #12 - 9 seed, R32
Washington 2019 - RV (#26 in preseason poll) - Missed NCAA Tournament
Duke 2019 - #4 - No NCAA Tournament, finished 25-6 and 11th in final AP Poll
Duke 2018 - #4 - 1 seed, Elite 8
Duke 2017 - #1 - 2 seed, Elite 8
Duke 2016 - #1 - 2 seed, R32
Kentucky 2016 - #2 - 2 seed, Elite 8
Kentucky 2015 - #2 - 4 seed, R32
Cal 2015 - #14 - 4 seed, R64
Duke 2014 - #4 - 1 seed, NCAA CHAMPIONS
Kansas 2014 - #5 - 2 seed, R32
Kentucky 2013 - #1 - 8 seed, NCAA Runner-Up
Florida 2013 - #10 - 1 seed, Finar Four
UCLA 2012 - #13 - 6 seed, R64
Kentucky 2012 - #3 - Missed NCAA Tournament
Kentucky 2011 - #2 - 1 seed, NCAA CHAMPIONS
Kentucky 2010 - #11 - 4 seed, Finar Four
UNC 2010 - #8 - 2 seed, Elite 8
Kentucky 2009 - #4 - 1 seed, Elite 8
Texas 2009 - #3 - 8 seed, R64
Kansas State 2007 - #25 - 11 seed, R32
UNC 2006 - #2 - 1 seed, Elite 8


Yep, basically. Although the majority of these programs are blue bloods who have done it. The few examples of non-blue bloods to do it are...

Memphis 2021 - #12 - 9 seed, R32
Washington 2019 - RV (#26 in preseason poll) - Missed NCAA Tournament
Cal 2015 - #14 - 4 seed, R64
Texas 2009 - #3 - 8 seed, R64
Kansas State 2007 - #25 - 11 seed, R32


That's more work than I'm willing to put into this haha

The non blue blood is the only relevant comparison IMO. Duke Kentucky types have rosters full of 4 and 5 star talent

 

[Scangg]

All the expectations talk is really pointless until we see what the final roster looks like

Depends on who stays and who goes. Depends on what portal pieces we bring in

Definitely need B1G level veterans to surround the freshman studs if we want to make a historic run

 

[Degaz-RU]

All the expectations talk is really pointless until we see what the final roster looks like

Depends on who stays and who goes. Depends on what portal pieces we bring in

Definitely need B1G level veterans to surround the freshman studs if we want to make a historic run

Yes, much depends on portal season. But I’m expecting Pike to surround the five freshmen and 2 Sophs with good veteran players — JWill to start, and then we need 4 good players on top of that, including at a minimum a starting caliber center and a 3 and D guard/wing. I hope Oskar is #13 for continuity and team culture.

ASSUMING this happens, my hope and expectations are:

- top 4 B1G finish
- at least a 6 seed in the NCAA tournament, if not better
- get to the Sweet 16

 

[LotusAggressor]

The tournament can go either way.
The OSU Greg Oden/Mike Conley team needed a late three against Xavier to avoid a second round defeat
The Zion Duke team nearly lost at the buzzer in the second round to UCF
The Kevin Durant team lost in the second round of the tournament.
Last year, Duke had 3 of the top 5 recruits and lost in the second round to Tennessee. I don’t think some of you really understand just how difficult it is to advance in the tournament. Sometimes you get a good draw and it’s great. But once you get out of the first round, the team you face in the second round is either a top 25 team, or someone who just beat a top 25 team.
I have higher expectations, but A LOT of people who clearly don’t know the tournament are trying to write Pike’s obituary.

This is true. Also, the importance of continuity can't be understimated. How many times have we seen collections of highly rated superstars get beaten by teams of under the radar players who've been playing together for 3 or 4 years?

 

[RUsojo]

You can hold him to anything you like. If he said less, I'd say get rid of him now. Realistically, he's gotten us from the dreads to the middle of the pack. See if the program can stay there for a bit, there are no skipping steps. I actually think next year could be bad for Pike because of what expectations are going to come from a fanbase.

I think there is a misunderstanding of what “middle of the pack” program accomplishes.

What we have done 8 years or whatever it is now, are accomplishments associated with Penn St Nebraska Minnesota (maybe NW pending this year) which is the bottom of the big ten, not the middle.

So realistically he pulled us up from below the bottom, to the bottom, and has the potential next year to take us somewhere great if he can pull it together.

 

[Eagleton96]

I think there is a misunderstanding of what “middle of the pack” program accomplishes.

What we have done 8 years or whatever it is now, are accomplishments associated with Penn St Nebraska Minnesota, which is the bottom of the big ten, not the middle.

So realistically he pulled us up from below the bottom, to the bottom, and has the potential next year to take us somewhere great if he can pull it together.

That’s a very uncharitable interpretation.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

IDK man, seton hall is doing it with zero NIL. Sha is a really good coach.

He is a good coach, but they are a bubble team in the same territory as we have been.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

The tournament can go either way.
The OSU Greg Oden/Mike Conley team needed a late three against Xavier to avoid a second round defeat
The Zion Duke team nearly lost at the buzzer in the second round to UCF
The Kevin Durant team lost in the second round of the tournament.
Last year, Duke had 3 of the top 5 recruits and lost in the second round to Tennessee. I don’t think some of you really understand just how difficult it is to advance in the tournament. Sometimes you get a good draw and it’s great. But once you get out of the first round, the team you face in the second round is either a top 25 team, or someone who just beat a top 25 team.
I have higher expectations, but A LOT of people who clearly don’t know the tournament are trying to write Pike’s obituary.

Injuries have also played a huge role in what teams have been able to accomplish with top recruits.

 

[RUsojo]

IMO Jeremiah would be the lead dog next season, and he'd be entering his 5th year of college. We'd be targeting some experienced pieces in the portal.

To your second point, Calipari doesn't recruit a class like ours every year (at least anymore). He was for a while (2010 to 2016 he had 6 classes in 7 years with 2+ top 10 recruits in a given class), but he's only had one in the last 7 years (2023).

In the Rivals era, there have 23 instances of a team landing multiple top 10 prospects in the same recruiting class. Here's how those teams have finished the season...

22/23 entered the season ranked (only team to not enter season ranked is 2019 Washington)
21/23 made the NCAA Tournament* (Duke would've made it if the tourney was held in 2020, only team to miss is 2019 Washington)
9/23 didn't make it out of the first weekend
6/23 got bounced in the 2nd weekend (Elite 8/Sweet 16)
5/23 made the Final Four (Duke 2014, Kentucky 2013, Florida 2013, Kentucky 2011, Kentucky 2010)
2/23 won the national title (Kentucky 2011, Duke 2014)

Would be interesting to see how these teams finished the year before.
Or how their prior recruiting classes were.

Basically - what was the rest of the team around the 2 Top 10 recruits?
Were they joining loaded teams (my suspicions for Kentucky, Duke) or were they joining teams and expected to carry the majority of the work.

Yeah most of these teams are blue bloods. We are probably most similar to Washington and of note they were coming off two 20 win seasons, didnt make tournament and their coach eventually got fired having never made the tournament again.

 

[seansherm]

I think there is a misunderstanding of what “middle of the pack” program accomplishes.

What we have done 8 years or whatever it is now, are accomplishments associated with Penn St Nebraska Minnesota (maybe NW pending this year) which is the bottom of the big ten, not the middle.

So realistically he pulled us up from below the bottom, to the bottom, and has the potential next year to take us somewhere great if he can pull it together.

Nah, ill give him middle of the pack, he had a tied for 4th finish. 4-10th fits the descriptive for me. He was there a couple years.

 

[bethlehemfan]

That’s a very uncharitable interpretation.

You are being very charitable in your characterization