Steve Pikiell will have to deal with something he has never had to next year: Expectations

[rubigtimenow]

In the Rivals era, there have 23 instances of a team landing multiple top 10 prospects in the same recruiting class. Here's how those teams have finished the season...

22/23 entered the season ranked (only team to not enter season ranked is 2019 Washington)
21/23 made the NCAA Tournament* (Duke would've made it if the tourney was held in 2020, only team to miss is 2019 Washington)
9/23 didn't make it out of the first weekend
6/23 got bounced in the 2nd weekend (Elite 8/Sweet 16)
5/23 made the Final Four (Duke 2014, Kentucky 2013, Florida 2013, Kentucky 2011, Kentucky 2019)
2/23 won the national title (Kentucky 2011, Duke 2014)

This is great research. Assuming the above is accurate, hopefully we enter the season ranked and make the tourney to not be the outlier like Washington.
After that…. about 40% made sweet sixteen.
The above is making me more optimistic. I’ve said it many times and will still say even if we’re top 10 in the country entering next years tournament…. Making the sweet sixteen will be AWESOME! Anything past that is unbelievable gravy.
( I lived through 30 years of no tournament! With most not even close to making it.)

 

[kcg88]

are these guys going to dive on the floor, rebound, win 50/50s, and be effective on offense playing tired.

Do you have reason to believe they won't fight for loose balls beyond any kind of built-in bias against top recruits? Do you think top-10 recruits are generally in worse shape than those ranked #200-210?

Further... how much does it matter? Was David Eckstein a more valuable player than JD Drew because Eckstein ran out his grounders and Drew jogged?

 

[motorb54]

The inability of this team to put the ball in the basket was their major failing.
Two of the top three recruits must have a tremendous ability to put the ball in the basket.
Our incoming center has more O than Cliff. How can we not have expectations?
Even if our D is worse Rutgers overall should be better.

 

[KK1827]

IMO Jeremiah would be the lead dog next season, and he'd be entering his 5th year of college. We'd be targeting some experienced pieces in the portal.

To your second point, Calipari doesn't recruit a class like ours every year (at least anymore). He was for a while (2010 to 2016 he had 6 classes in 7 years with 2+ top 10 recruits in a given class), but he's only had one in the last 7 years (2023).

In the Rivals era, there have 23 instances of a team landing multiple top 10 prospects in the same recruiting class. Here's how those teams have finished the season...

22/23 entered the season ranked (only team to not enter season ranked is 2019 Washington)
21/23 made the NCAA Tournament* (Duke would've made it if the tourney was held in 2020, only team to miss is 2019 Washington)
9/23 didn't make it out of the first weekend
6/23 got bounced in the 2nd weekend (Elite 8/Sweet 16)
5/23 made the Final Four (Duke 2014, Kentucky 2013, Florida 2013, Kentucky 2011, Kentucky 2019)
2/23 won the national title (Kentucky 2011, Duke 2014)

Great information. Thank you. So basically more often than not you get out of the first weekend.

 

[NickRU714]

This is great research. Assuming the above is accurate, hopefully we enter the season ranked and make the tourney to not be the outlier like Washington.
After that…. about 40% made sweet sixteen.
The above is making me more optimistic. I’ve said it many times and will still say even if we’re top 10 in the country entering next years tournament…. Making the sweet sixteen will be AWESOME! Anything past that is unbelievable gravy.
( I lived through 30 years of no tournament! With most not even close to making it.)

Would be interesting to see how these teams finished the year before.
Or how their prior recruiting classes were.

Basically - what was the rest of the team around the 2 Top 10 recruits?
Were they joining loaded teams (my suspicions for Kentucky, Duke) or were they joining teams and expected to carry the majority of the work.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Do you have reason to believe they won't fight for loose balls beyond any kind of built-in bias against top recruits? Do you think top-10 recruits are generally in worse shape than those ranked #200-210?

Further... how much does it matter? Was David Eckstein a more valuable player than JD Drew because Eckstein ran out his grounders and Drew jogged?

I think I do have built in bias that a top recruit is less apt to dive for loose balls. Whether it is correct or not? And if it is correct, buy how much?

Not sure about the being in shape 1-10 vs 200-210. I wouldn't sign for that. I would sign for the fact that a lot of incoming freshman are not used to playing hard for the entire game. I have said over and over again I believe shooting at 110 BPM is different than shooting at 130BPM. Both of our recruits are not expending energy on D in AAU games. Dylan has some effort on D i HS, but nothing like what he will be asked next year.

As far as David Eckstein hustling vs JD Drew....it means a ton in basketball. Not so much in baseball.

 

[dpwhite]

It’s ok to realize Pike had a bad year coming off a complete meltdown. It’s not crazy to think a bad year next season could cost him his job. When expectations of the fan base rise the product on the floor will as well.

But again fan expectation rising does not equal consequence if fan expectations aren't met. It will be up to the AD and probably a few influential donors. People can yell all they want on a message board but ultimately that doesn't mean anything. I know Pikes didn't have the year he expected. He got dealt a bad hand and couldn't find the chemistry on the court that worked consistently, he knows it, you know it, and I know it. But complaining about it here and saying you're going to "hold him to his standards" means... .legitimately nothing other than chatter.

 

[bigmatt718]

My daughter and son in law are both UK grads and still live in Lexington. There are rumblings about Cal.

I think Kentucky goes after Hurley if Cal gets the axe. UConn doesn't have the money to stave off a bonafide blue blood with SEC money.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I wonder where Pike's mind is right now. He stood up the radio post game interview. He was clearly agitated as the real post game press conference started. He admitted to needing to change the way he addressed things after the season ended. You know the Mag drama bothers him. You know he is sour with Cam and maybe Paul.

This isn't what he signed up to deal with. Yes he makes a lot of money, but yes he deserves what he makes based on what he has done for the program.

Is there a part of Pike that would pull a Jay Wright in 2 years and be done with this nonsense.

 

[briccnerff]

I hear ya there.

But I’ll also ask this. When will it be fair to set expectations on pike? Will it ever be?

It’s already happened. And spike has exceeded expectations. You wanna set expectations for next season? I need to see who else NIL brings on board

 

[briccnerff]

I think things are different now though, no?

When have we ever had

1) top 25 salary
2) top 10 facility
3) can pay kids as well as we can?

And of course top 10 home court

NIL is not strong. Couldn’t keep Spencer, Paul or Ndongo

 

[Eagleton96]

IMO Jeremiah would be the lead dog next season, and he'd be entering his 5th year of college. We'd be targeting some experienced pieces in the portal.

To your second point, Calipari doesn't recruit a class like ours every year (at least anymore). He was for a while (2010 to 2016 he had 6 classes in 7 years with 2+ top 10 recruits in a given class), but he's only had one in the last 7 years (2023).

In the Rivals era, there have 23 instances of a team landing multiple top 10 prospects in the same recruiting class. Here's how those teams have finished the season...

22/23 entered the season ranked (only team to not enter season ranked is 2019 Washington)
21/23 made the NCAA Tournament* (Duke would've made it if the tourney was held in 2020, only team to miss is 2019 Washington)
9/23 didn't make it out of the first weekend
6/23 got bounced in the 2nd weekend (Elite 8/Sweet 16)
5/23 made the Final Four (Duke 2014, Kentucky 2013, Florida 2013, Kentucky 2011, Kentucky 2010)
2/23 won the national title (Kentucky 2011, Duke 2014)

I have to assume most of these teams had decent recruiting in prior years and returning teams to build on.

 

[briccnerff]

No Pike missed the tournament because he wouldn’t bench or move Paul off the ball . He forgot and froze in the Minnesota game and didn’t call a timeout when the team was falling apart. Mag is not the reason just the excuse.

Then you don’t know basketball. We lost he ain’t se we lost Mag. Team fell apart after his injury.

 

[mb5789]

This is great research. Assuming the above is accurate, hopefully we enter the season ranked and make the tourney to not be the outlier like Washington.
After that…. about 40% made sweet sixteen.
The above is making me more optimistic. I’ve said it many times and will still say even if we’re top 10 in the country entering next years tournament…. Making the sweet sixteen will be AWESOME! Anything past that is unbelievable gravy.
( I lived through 30 years of no tournament! With most not even close to making it.)

Thanks man. Here's the full list if anyone's interested...

Rutgers 2024 - #?
UNC 2024 - #?
Kentucky 2023 - #16 - Current season, projected 5 seed

Duke 2022 - #7 - 5 seed, R32
Memphis 2021 - #12 - 9 seed, R32
Washington 2019 - RV (#26 in preseason poll) - Missed NCAA Tournament
Duke 2019 - #4 - No NCAA Tournament, finished 25-6 and 11th in final AP Poll
Duke 2018 - #4 - 1 seed, Elite 8
Duke 2017 - #1 - 2 seed, Elite 8
Duke 2016 - #1 - 2 seed, R32
Kentucky 2016 - #2 - 2 seed, Elite 8
Kentucky 2015 - #2 - 4 seed, R32
Cal 2015 - #14 - 4 seed, R64
Duke 2014 - #4 - 1 seed, NCAA CHAMPIONS
Kansas 2014 - #5 - 2 seed, R32
Kentucky 2013 - #1 - 8 seed, NCAA Runner-Up
Florida 2013 - #10 - 1 seed, Finar Four
UCLA 2012 - #13 - 6 seed, R64
Kentucky 2012 - #3 - Missed NCAA Tournament
Kentucky 2011 - #2 - 1 seed, NCAA CHAMPIONS
Kentucky 2010 - #11 - 4 seed, Finar Four
UNC 2010 - #8 - 2 seed, Elite 8
Kentucky 2009 - #4 - 1 seed, Elite 8
Texas 2009 - #3 - 8 seed, R64
Kansas State 2007 - #25 - 11 seed, R32
UNC 2006 - #2 - 1 seed, Elite 8

Great information. Thank you. So basically more often than not you get out of the first weekend.

Yep, basically. Although the majority of these programs are blue bloods who have done it. The few examples of non-blue bloods to do it are...

Memphis 2021 - #12 - 9 seed, R32
Washington 2019 - RV (#26 in preseason poll) - Missed NCAA Tournament
Cal 2015 - #14 - 4 seed, R64
Texas 2009 - #3 - 8 seed, R64
Kansas State 2007 - #25 - 11 seed, R32

Would be interesting to see how these teams finished the year before.
Or how their prior recruiting classes were.

Basically - what was the rest of the team around the 2 Top 10 recruits?
Were they joining loaded teams (my suspicions for Kentucky, Duke) or were they joining teams and expected to carry the majority of the work.

That's more work than I'm willing to put into this haha

 

[briccnerff]

If you think we just landed 2 lottery picks without $$$ then I gotta bridge to sell you haha

Whose money? Adidas? When we start pulling in bags g time recruits regularly, then we’ll know the money is coming from Rutgers,

 

[seansherm]

People hold greg schiano to a much higher standard despite football being a much harder job. Idk, its all a little odd to me

Do they? Schiano seems to walk on water to most around here, what with the "he's the only one that can do" nonsense.

 

[seansherm]

Pikes own expectations for the program are NCAA Tournament or bust. He has said it multiple times e every year. He said it midway through this year. Hold him to his own standards

You can hold him to anything you like. If he said less, I'd say get rid of him now. Realistically, he's gotten us from the dreads to the middle of the pack. See if the program can stay there for a bit, there are no skipping steps. I actually think next year could be bad for Pike because of what expectations are going to come from a fanbase.

 

[seansherm]

If you think we just landed 2 lottery picks without $$$ then I gotta bridge to sell you haha

Yeah, but is that one time only, we've got an opportunity to pick up two top kids, $, or is it there on an annual basis? History of RU says its a one time thing.

 

[seansherm]

Do you have reason to believe they won't fight for loose balls beyond any kind of built-in bias against top recruits? Do you think top-10 recruits are generally in worse shape than those ranked #200-210?

Further... how much does it matter? Was David Eckstein a more valuable player than JD Drew because Eckstein ran out his grounders and Drew jogged?

Probably both since they were each top 5 Cardinals over differing four year periods. You also probably need both.

 

[KnightTerrors]

I’m old enough to remember the pike can’t recruit well enough to win shtick.

Now he lands two of the top three players in the class and it’s sweet 16 or bust?

the people that don’t like pike, so be it. He’s not perfect. But if you judge the entirety of a season solely on making it to the sweet 16 featuring freshman, you haven’t watched much college basketball over the years.

 

[Plum Street]

I’m old enough to remember the pike can’t recruit well enough to win shtick.

Now he lands two of the top three players in the class and it’s sweet 16 or bust?

the people that don’t like pike, so be it. He’s not perfect. But if you judge the entirety of a season solely on making it to the sweet 16 featuring freshman, you haven’t watched much college basketball over the years.

Well, the fab 5 went to back to back national championship games.

 

[FIJI'83]

Let's say Pickell's indescribable Neanderthal like offensive scheme doesn't change, and notwithstanding the young talent coming in, the season turns out to be no better than "Meh", the ability to recruit talent in the future will be greatly hampered. Against this nightmarish scenario, RU will have a $23 Million Dollar Buy Out anchor hanging around its neck. Yikes!

 

[RUJMM78]

I think Kentucky goes after Hurley if Cal gets the axe. UConn doesn't have the money to stave off a bonafide blue blood with SEC money.

Hurley isn't leaving UConn where he can dominate the Big East versus competing in the SEC.UConn is perceived as a elite college basketball program based on the number of national championships.They are bye far the best basketball program in the northeast.The starting five has players that all can score 20 points which is rare in college basketball.

 

[RUBlackout]

How about this….

Top 6 of the B1G
The above prob holds a 21+ win record
Top 25 showing
Safely in tournament
Round 1 win

I think that is the bar for me here. Dreams of sweet 16 and final fours are amazing but so much happens during a single elimination tourney that I can’t count on that.

Everything else is gravy in terms of the team

My only other ask is seeing recruiting in 2025 be on an upward trajectory as a result and not back to hidden gems. Let’s stay within the top 25 of recruiting world

 

[goru7]

Let's say Pickell's indescribable Neanderthal like offensive scheme doesn't change, and notwithstanding the young talent coming in, the season turns out to be no better than "Meh", the ability to recruit talent in the future will be greatly hampered. Against this nightmarish scenario, RU will have a $23 Million Dollar Buy Out anchor hanging around its neck. Yikes!

Why don’t you create a more negative disastrous scenario ? Common now. You are capable

 

[KK1827]

Yeah, but is that one time only, we've got an opportunity to pick up two top kids, $, or is it there on an annual basis? History of RU says its a one time thing.

IDK man, seton hall is doing it with zero NIL. Sha is a really good coach.

 

[KK1827]

I’m old enough to remember the pike can’t recruit well enough to win shtick.

Now he lands two of the top three players in the class and it’s sweet 16 or bust?

the people that don’t like pike, so be it. He’s not perfect. But if you judge the entirety of a season solely on making it to the sweet 16 featuring freshman, you haven’t watched much college basketball over the years.

I'm not sure if the judgement is being made off one season or his body of work. I give him a total pass on his first 4 years considering what he took over. The covid season I firmly believe he wouldve made the tourney despite some bracketologists saying we wouldn't have made it due to resume lacking road wins. But we've regressed every year since. The question you have to ask is did he hit his ceiling? If we cant get past the first weekend next year it's a valid question after nearly a decade imo, right?

We're competitive but it's time to take the next step and get out of the first weekend. If we don't get to the sweet 16 next year I think the season is a total failure. You don't bring in multiple lottery picks to sneak in on the bubble.

 

[KK1827]

How about this….

Top 6 of the B1G
The above prob holds a 21+ win record
Top 25 showing
Safely in tournament
Round 1 win

I think that is the bar for me here. Dreams of sweet 16 and final fours are amazing but so much happens during a single elimination tourney that I can’t count on that.

Everything else is gravy in terms of the team

My only other ask is seeing recruiting in 2025 be on an upward trajectory as a result and not back to hidden gems. Let’s stay within the top 25 of recruiting world

I think that's more than fair. A big key to getting out of the first weekend is having a solid regular season where you earn a 6 seed or better.

 

[bethlehemfan]

Smurf^^^

 

[seansherm]

IDK man, seton hall is doing it with zero NIL. Sha is a really good coach.

All of SH's $ goes to hoops, we have football too and despite school sizes, the actual donor base is probably similar

 

[zebnatto]

I’ll be honest, I really didnt pay attention to our basketball program this year. It was obvious coming into the year we’d be pretty bad, it was always about 2024-2025 season.

With that said, 2024-2025 is upon us. It will be year 9 of pike which is crazy when you think about it. Hes been here nearly a decade!

9 years in, the fanbase has been uber patient, theyve placed very little expectations on him but all that changes next year, maybe even moreso with how this season went. Fair or not.

What pikes going to be working with in year 9

1) Two projected lottery picks
2) a top 10 practice facility in America
3) a top 10 home court atmosphere in america
4) a top 25(?) salary in america

What pikes done
1) 1 ncaa tourney win
2) made us an average big ten program

What the fans expect
- at minimum a trip to the sweet 16

My questions

1) What happens if pike doesnt get us to at least the sweet 16 next year? Does the fan base turn on him?

2) What happens if were not better than a 7 seed? How will the fan base react?

3) What if a slow start to the year with a talented albeit inexperienced group leads to a young group having to win a handful of road games in big ten play to get into the tourney?

Ive seen teams with more talent struggle. This is pikes hardest job yet. He has a tall task ahead

I’m

I’ll be honest, I really didnt pay attention to our basketball program this year. It was obvious coming into the year we’d be pretty bad, it was always about 2024-2025 season.

With that said, 2024-2025 is upon us. It will be year 9 of pike which is crazy when you think about it. Hes been here nearly a decade!

9 years in, the fanbase has been uber patient, theyve placed very little expectations on him but all that changes next year, maybe even moreso with how this season went. Fair or not.

What pikes going to be working with in year 9

1) Two projected lottery picks
2) a top 10 practice facility in America
3) a top 10 home court atmosphere in america
4) a top 25(?) salary in america

What pikes done
1) 1 ncaa tourney win
2) made us an average big ten program

What the fans expect
- at minimum a trip to the sweet 16

My questions

1) What happens if pike doesnt get us to at least the sweet 16 next year? Does the fan base turn on him?

2) What happens if were not better than a 7 seed? How will the fan base react?

3) What if a slow start to the year with a talented albeit inexperienced group leads to a young group having to win a handful of road games in big ten play to get into the tourney?

Ive seen teams with more talent struggle. This is pikes hardest job yet. He has a tall task ahead

If it was OBVIOUS to you coming into the year that we'd be pretty bad, then, in your self-congratulating way, you aren't making the wise and insightful statement you seem to think you are. In fact, it's the statement of a loser. Many of us were concerned that or suspected that or feared that we could (not "would") be very bad.

But obvious?

You may have anticipated, feared, or wondered how effective Mag would be coming off his injury, but it wasn't obvious that he'd be a non factor for the season?
It wasn't obvious coming into the season that DS would not only not improve upon this strong last quarter of last season but that he would dramatically regress.
At a lesser level, same with AW who didn't stay even with, didn't improve upon, but significantly regressed from last year.
It wasn't obvious that it would take JW as long as it did to see the floor.
It wasn't obvious that the nation's #23 ranked recruit and possibly its best shooter would be an absolute bust for three-quarters of the season and a "well, I can see he's showing progress)" for the final quarter.

My point: all of the above were possible, maybe in a case or two, likely, and we all knew what we were losing, but anyone who in October felt it was OBVIOUS we'd be pretty bad and "really didn't pay attention to our basketball program this year"--I guess you only pay attention when it's obvious we're going to be pretty good--comes off, to me, as a loser trying to dress himself up as a wise man.

 

[bethlehemfan]

I’m

If it was OBVIOUS to you coming into the year that we'd be pretty bad, then, in your self-congratulating way, you aren't making the wise and insightful statement you seem to think you are. In fact, it's the statement of a loser. Many of us were concerned that or suspected that or feared that we could (not "would") be very bad.

But obvious?

You may have anticipated, feared, or wondered how effective Mag would be coming off his injury, but it wasn't obvious that he'd be a non factor for the season?
It wasn't obvious coming into the season that DS would not only not improve upon this strong last quarter of last season but that he would dramatically regress.
At a lesser level, same with AW who didn't stay even with, didn't improve upon, but significantly regressed from last year.
It wasn't obvious that it would take JW as long as it did to see the floor.
It wasn't obvious that the nation's #23 ranked recruit and possibly its best shooter would be an absolute bust for three-quarters of the season and a "well, I can see he's showing progress)" for the final quarter.

My point: all of the above were possible, maybe in a case or two, likely, and we all knew what we were losing, but anyone who in October felt it was OBVIOUS we'd be pretty bad and "really didn't pay attention to our basketball program this year [!] comes off, to me, as a loser trying to dress himself up as a wise man.

Kyk is not an ru basketball fan. His bball heart pumps blue. He also said similar things in past seasons and was wrong.

 

[socaldave]

How about this….

Top 6 of the B1G
The above prob holds a 21+ win record
Top 25 showing
Safely in tournament
Round 1 win

I think that is the bar for me here. Dreams of sweet 16 and final fours are amazing but so much happens during a single elimination tourney that I can’t count on that.

Everything else is gravy in terms of the team

My only other ask is seeing recruiting in 2025 be on an upward trajectory as a result and not back to hidden gems. Let’s stay within the top 25 of recruiting world

Compete for Big title Top 2
Top 10 nationally
Safely 2 wins in tournament.
A lot depends on upcoming portal.
$$$ buck up.
Where do I contribute, this is my last investment as a fan emotionally and $$$
I believe NIL thing will continue to spiral to a point where I have no interest. I think a lot of folks will loose interest in mercenary college athletics.
I will try to enjoy next season as a last opportunity as a fan.

 

[KK1827]

I’m

If it was OBVIOUS to you coming into the year that we'd be pretty bad, then, in your self-congratulating way, you aren't making the wise and insightful statement you seem to think you are. In fact, it's the statement of a loser. Many of us were concerned that or suspected that or feared that we could (not "would") be very bad.

But obvious?

You may have anticipated, feared, or wondered how effective Mag would be coming off his injury, but it wasn't obvious that he'd be a non factor for the season?
It wasn't obvious coming into the season that DS would not only not improve upon this strong last quarter of last season but that he would dramatically regress.
At a lesser level, same with AW who didn't stay even with, didn't improve upon, but significantly regressed from last year.
It wasn't obvious that it would take JW as long as it did to see the floor.
It wasn't obvious that the nation's #23 ranked recruit and possibly its best shooter would be an absolute bust for three-quarters of the season and a "well, I can see he's showing progress)" for the final quarter.

My point: all of the above were possible, maybe in a case or two, likely, and we all knew what we were losing, but anyone who in October felt it was OBVIOUS we'd be pretty bad and "really didn't pay attention to our basketball program this year"--I guess you only pay attention when it's obvious we're going to be pretty good--comes off, to me, as a loser trying to dress himself up as a wise man.

I wouldnt overthink it. Im just not that entertained by basketball and therefore only follow when theres a reason to.

 

[NickRU714]

The 2025 class will be known before the 24-25 season even starts. So do you hope that noise on the court next year helps the 2026 class add some four stars? Even so we may have a lean year or two in between, similar to this one.

Did Ace commit abnormally early for an elite recruit?
He had already been committed for almost 2 months by this point last year.

 

[darkcheck]

Did Ace commit abnormally early for an elite recruit?
He had already been committed for almost 2 months by this point last year.

Not unheard of early but yes, pretty early

 

[NickRU714]

If getting Ace and Harper to commit doesn't raise the floor (expectations), then why the excitement over the commits?
It sounds like at best it gives us a better shot at just making the tournament but shouldn't raise expectations beyond that.
Which is pretty close to our expectations without Ace/Gavin at this point.

How much are they actually impacting the team if expectations aren't drastically raised?
Especially since they are only here for 1 year likely.

 

[RUGiddy777]

It’s ok to realize Pike had a bad year coming off a complete meltdown. It’s not crazy to think a bad year next season could cost him his job. When expectations of the fan base rise the product on the floor will as well.

Yes it is. He’s the reason the fan base even has higher expectations. Unless he has a Juwan Howard type of season, he will be here in 2026 and beyond (hopefully).

 

[biazza38]

I heard he’s gonna be Evan Simon’s qb coach.

 

[RUGiddy777]

NIL is not strong. Couldn’t keep Spencer, Paul or Ndongo

Paul was done. He was never coming back. We could have paid his NIL.

Cam never got into the bidding game. He (his brother) got an offer he liked from UConn and left. Plus going to the defending national champs from Loyola just a year prior is a hell of an FU to everyone who missed on him. Also, he plays in the premier guard conference.

Baye followed Hobbs to GT. Not even sure he could get NIL due to citizenship.