The 2025 class will be known before the 24-25 season even starts. So do you hope that noise on the court next year helps the 2026 class add some four stars? Even so we may have a lean year or two in between, similar to this one.
Steve Pikiell will have to deal with something he has never had to next year: Expectations
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Can’t afford another lean year . Maybe after 2-3 solid years you can have an off type. We were in position at 15-10 … then we fell off the cliff no pun intended.
I agree. Pike is not just a good man, he's a GREAT man. But to your point with the money we are paying and the assets he has at his disposal, people are right to start expecting more out of him, especially when it comes to offensive basketball.
You left out the most important factor, the salary pool for players he has to work with. Are we the LA Dodgers or are we the Minnesota Twins? The answer is that we are probably toward the bottom of the mid-range in NIL for power 6 schools. So anything above that is over achieving.
Then we need to be the Tampa Bay Rays and push whatever edges we can create. But unfortunately Pikiell isn't really interested in that stuff.
Except for you on Schiano. I like your real estate posts. Basketball posts, not so much. This thread seems like a precursor for multiple "I told you so, I was right" posts/threads next season when the team does not meet your expectations. And it's telling that one of the biggest board trolls has the most responses in this thread.
Matt Painter got off to a strong start at Purdue, and he hit a rough patch in seasons 8 and 9, before getting back on track. Yeah, he had sweet 16 appearances in years 4 and 6, but he took over a program that had a storied history and declined in the waning years of Keady. Good thing Purdue did not fire him after abysmal year 9.
There are many other examples. Progress is not linear.
As others have said, it is unwise to expect too much with a bunch of star freshman coming in who will need to gel.
Not really, Greg has never has a winning BIG record. This is Pike's first since 18-19.
I would add it also seems many are pre-planning "excuses" if the team falters next year.
Excuses that aren't usually afforded to other programs with elite recruits.
Do analytics dive for loose balls though?
If you think we just landed 2 lottery picks without $$$ then I gotta bridge to sell you haha
A year with a bunch of productive players returning.
I think people are absolutely crazy to be optimistic about next year.
I love when fans on a message board or social media say stuff like this. "Hold him to his standards." Okay, so you said he did a bad just this year. What's the consequence? There isn't going to be any. He's not on the hot seat. He won't be on the hot seat for a while. He has done an overall very good job here. I can say "OH NO HE DIDN'T REACH THE STANDARD HE SET FOR HIMSELF"... you can say that until your blue in the face. It's not going to change anything.
I watched Moneyball. But other than that I don't know much about it. Seems to me like the issues are more about money and recruiting tradition when trying to use data to identify high hidden gems among school players or portal guys. It also seems like baseball in particular lends itself to this analytical approach.
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IDK, wasn't that covered above with Duke?
What about Michigan?
Admittedly, I don't keep up with the college basketball landscape.
But if this was an equation or math class, one could say that the amount of excuses may be proportional to the size of the deep hole the coach/program dug out of. That is not to say that the excuses get old and run out. But this is the first rough patch Pike has hit after getting the program to respectable status. The sudden departure of Paul and Cam hurt, and then having Mag very limited seemed to be a dagger that killed the team. Yeah, that's a lot of excuses.
On the other hand, some fans may want that excuses relationship to be inversely proportional, because the taste of a small amount of success has whetted their appetite for bigger successes.
Neither one is wrong. They are just different.
Crazy to be optimistic about next year? Is there a program in America landing 2 of the top 3 recruits in america who wouldnt be optimistic?
IF we are successful next year I will be dead wrong. Going with highly rated recruits and one and dones go away from what has made Pike successful. Getting Ace and Dylan as one and dones Pike is driving in a lane that he has never had.
We have won with defense, rebounding, 50/50s, and upperclassmen pulling most of the weight.
Gavin's offensive performance should be an eye opener to show you there is a difference between playing offense when you go 50% on D and when you go 100% on D. I would be shocked if Ace and/or Dylan shoot over 30% from 3 next year.
It’s ok to realize Pike had a bad year coming off a complete meltdown. It’s not crazy to think a bad year next season could cost him his job. When expectations of the fan base rise the product on the floor will as well.
No need to be rude. I never said that so please don't put words in my mouth. A few points:
Harper had at least one major deal where the sponsor said the deal was not through RU and would have followed him anywhere. Also, the Harper's in particular didn't need money as much as most other kids and had the financial luxury of sending their son where they thought he'd be treated best and didn't need the immediate cash-out.
Having said that many people have speculated that getting Ace and Dylan depleted our limited resources so we have little left to go into the portal to complete the team. I don't know if that's true or not.
Bottom line is that we have NIL, but a lot has been printed in the major news outlets indicating that our NIL is way behind the other high majors. So when I say we are in the middle, I'm being more generous and giving more benefit of the doubt than what's been reported.
Haha GR FIG is at one extreme, but I'd say the majority on here are cautiously optimistic, with another subset thinking like you, "if we don't make at least second weekend it's a disaster".
It all depends on who we get in the portal. Hopefully the Vegas tourney comes to fruition soon, combined with the allure of playing with Ace/Dylan, should land us some quality pieces...
who wins in the B1G because of freshman? Who was the last freshman on the 1st team B1G?
are these guys going to dive on the floor, rebound, win 50/50s, and be effective on offense playing tired.
The B1G is more of a player development conference. Not having done a study, it seems it's the ACC, Big 12, and SEC teams that do their damage with freshmen.
I asked Chat GPT:
To compile a list of the most impactful NCAA men's basketball freshmen over the past 10 years, we'll consider several factors such as individual accolades (e.g., Freshman of the Year), statistical achievements, team success, and influence on the game. Here's a list based on these criteria, highlighting players who made significant impacts in their freshman years:
- Anthony Davis (Kentucky, 2011-2012) - Led Kentucky to a National Championship while sweeping nearly every national player of the year award.
- Zion Williamson (Duke, 2018-2019) - Became a national sensation for his explosive athleticism and efficiency, dominating college basketball.
- Jahlil Okafor (Duke, 2014-2015) - Key player in Duke's National Championship run, known for his scoring and rebounding.
- Karl-Anthony Towns (Kentucky, 2014-2015) - Played a crucial role in Kentucky's undefeated regular season.
- Ben Simmons (LSU, 2015-2016) - Despite LSU not making the NCAA tournament, Simmons' all-around game was highly praised.
- Trae Young (Oklahoma, 2017-2018) - Led the nation in both scoring and assists, a rare feat.
- Luka Garza (Iowa, 2020-2021) - While not his freshman year, Garza's college career was so dominant it's worth mentioning; his freshman year set the foundation.
- Deandre Ayton (Arizona, 2017-2018) - Dominated the Pac-12 and was a top draft pick due to his performance.
- RJ Barrett (Duke, 2018-2019) - Teamed up with Zion Williamson to form one of the most formidable duos in recent memory.
- Cade Cunningham (Oklahoma State, 2020-2021) - Led Oklahoma State to the NCAA tournament with his all-around play and was the consensus No. 1 pick in the NBA draft.
Now we are back to the "what's the goal of bringing in elite one and done prospects?"
I disagree but it's a good question: if you can't raise expectations with the #2 and #3 prospects then what's the value in bringing them in?
IMO Jeremiah would be the lead dog next season, and he'd be entering his 5th year of college. We'd be targeting some experienced pieces in the portal.
To your second point, Calipari doesn't recruit a class like ours every year (at least anymore). He was for a while (2010 to 2016 he had 6 classes in 7 years with 2+ top 10 recruits in a given class), but he's only had one in the last 7 years (2023).
In the Rivals era, there have 23 instances of a team landing multiple top 10 prospects in the same recruiting class. Here's how those teams have finished the season...
22/23 entered the season ranked (only team to not enter season ranked is 2019 Washington)
21/23 made the NCAA Tournament* (Duke would've made it if the tourney was held in 2020, only team to miss is 2019 Washington)
9/23 didn't make it out of the first weekend
6/23 got bounced in the 2nd weekend (Elite 8/Sweet 16)
5/23 made the Final Four (Duke 2014, Kentucky 2013, Florida 2013, Kentucky 2011, Kentucky 2010)
2/23 won the national title (Kentucky 2011, Duke 2014)
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The last time any Big Ten team had an incoming top 3 freshman in the country was 2010. It was Jared Sullinger at Ohio State, and he made 1st Team All B1G.
All well and good but to say you shouldnt be optimistic having 2 of the top 3 recruits in america coming in is kinda crazy.
We should be pessimistic? We have two projected lottery pick 1 and dones coming in haha
The big ten aint exactly flush with talent, especially at the guard position, lets be honest. And now we have 2 lottery picks. If you cant be optimistic and have expectations about next season then you never will
If Indiana or Michigan were bringing in Ace/Dylan, what would they have to accomplish next year before HC Woodson/Howard is called a failure?
I imagine the expectations would be pretty high around here and our fans would be quick to call him a failure.
I imagine the expectations would be pretty high around here and our fans would be quick to call him a failure.
1. being a lottery pick doesn't necedsarily equate to getting college wins
2. what do you think the odds are of...
0 being lottery picks
1 being a lottery pick
2 being a lottery pick
Also, have people not noticed how the 28th best recruit has done this year at Rutgers. An absolute disaster.
Yea that was honestly my biggest takeaway. There are very few top 5 (or even top 10) freshmen who end up at a Big Ten school.
I think it's a legit question (as you already said, as I see after re-reading out loud very slowly), but it's great to see Rutgers in a position where they need to ask it of themselves.
I think it will be an excellent and fun season...
