Steve Pikiell will have to deal with something he has never had to next year: Expectations

[KK1827]

I’ll be honest, I really didnt pay attention to our basketball program this year. It was obvious coming into the year we’d be pretty bad, it was always about 2024-2025 season.

With that said, 2024-2025 is upon us. It will be year 9 of pike which is crazy when you think about it. Hes been here nearly a decade!

9 years in, the fanbase has been uber patient, theyve placed very little expectations on him but all that changes next year, maybe even moreso with how this season went. Fair or not.

What pikes going to be working with in year 9

1) Two projected lottery picks
2) a top 10 practice facility in America
3) a top 10 home court atmosphere in america
4) a top 25(?) salary in america

What pikes done
1) 1 ncaa tourney win
2) made us an average big ten program

What the fans expect
- at minimum a trip to the sweet 16

My questions

1) What happens if pike doesnt get us to at least the sweet 16 next year? Does the fan base turn on him?

2) What happens if were not better than a 7 seed? How will the fan base react?

3) What if a slow start to the year with a talented albeit inexperienced group leads to a young group having to win a handful of road games in big ten play to get into the tourney?

Ive seen teams with more talent struggle. This is pikes hardest job yet. He has a tall task ahead

 

[ouchmyknee]

TBH it doesn't matter what the fans will think after next year. The reality is that if Pike can't make some noise with next year's team and show he can put players into the lottery, he will basically be killing his own career. If Ace and Dylan aren't lottery picks, do you think Pike will ever win another recruiting battle for a top player? He won't. I personally think next year will go exceedingly well, but Pike has never had the pressure he's going to have on himself. Next year we'll see what he's made of (and I think we'll all be pleasantly surprised).

 

[fatsam98]

That's a lot of hypotheticals. How about we see how the roster ends up first?

 

[The RUT]

If we lose in the round of 32 on a buzzer beater or something I’ll be salty, but what can you do?

Honestly the amount of roster construction needed for next season is insane.

 

[darkcheck]

That's a lot of hypotheticals. How about we see how the roster ends up first?

More than fair. It seems too many though are already like “sweet 16, elite 8 or final 4” or bust. Or they’re like “have to be an X seed”. It’s an uphill battle right now. And measuring success by how many games you win in a single elimination tourney is foolish, especially when you haven’t won more than one game in over 40 years. I’d like to see a solid 2025 class before the season start. Then I’d like to see wins through heart, hustle and more offensive prowess. Also I’d like a team that doesn’t quit especially at home.

 

[Shelby65]

Stay grounded and lay off the Kool Ade. Keep expectations low and you won’t be disappointed.

Even if the new 2 live up to their billing, which isn’t a sure thing, it’s not nearly enough to be a winning team with the players we think are coming back.

It’s also unlikely to get starters from the portal given we’re likely broke given what those two will get plus what we’ll have to spend on JWill.

 

[KK1827]

Stay grounded and lay off the Kool Ade. Keep expectations low and you won’t be disappointed.

Even if the new 2 live up to their billing, which isn’t a sure thing, it’s not nearly enough to be a winning team with the players we think are coming back.

It’s also unlikely to get starters from the portal given we’re likely broke given what those two will get plus what we’ll have to spend on JWill.

I hear ya there.

But I’ll also ask this. When will it be fair to set expectations on pike? Will it ever be?

 

[Shelby65]

I hear ya there.

But I’ll also ask this. When will it be fair to set expectations on pike? Will it ever be?

tough call. Our program doesn’t have the history and perennial high expections like Indiana that lands coaches on the hot seat. So as long as the program flirts with the NCAA periodically he gets a long leash.

 

[JavaDunk18]

if the two live up to their billing, it is way more than enough to have a winning season.. while setting final four expectations may be a little high, 2 NBA players on the roster, even with most of these players back would be significantly better than 15-16.. the absence of Mag once again caused the late season collapse, just as things were appearing to gel.. personally, I am predicting a (Seattle?) 6th seed, but I am not placing any expectations.. & don't forget about Lathan & the others.. will be a completely different team. I think only 4 or 5 will be back anyway. it will be way beyond a winning season

 

[ScarletDave]

Curious which teams made up of 5 freshman and 2 sophomores as their core are top-4 seeds this year? UConn? Purdue? How aboit even in the Big Ten? Northwestern amd Nebraska are senior & portal driven. People have no clue for the most part what they’re talking about. Kentucky gets this kind of class literally every year. Do they make the Final Four every year? How many top 2 seeds have they been in the last 10 year? Yet is Calipari getting fired? People need to cool the jets when we don’t go 30-0 … Duke and UNC are top-10 this year and have 7 & 6 losses each

 

[rubigtimenow]

What the fans expect
- at minimum a trip to the sweet 16

Aside from what I quoted here, I agree with everything in your post and the great questions.
I am a big fan and I do not currently expect sweet 16 at a minimum. If we make the sweet 16 next year (!!!), that will be a grand slam of a season where nearly everything went well!
I’ve read many others saying the same (in fact, most in this boat, in my opinion).
Therefore I think some of your questions are fundamentally flawed because your initial premise is simply wrong about what fans expect.

 

[darkcheck]

tough call. Our program doesn’t have the history and perennial high expections like Indiana that lands coaches on the hot seat. So as long as the program flirts with the NCAA periodically he gets a long leash.

Agree with you. We’ve been a bubble team 4 of the last 5 years. Could have been three in but for Covid. If that pattern repeats I think Pike is good. I would like to be a perennial ranked team but I’m not sure we have the resources to do that. I’ll be very anxious to see the 2025 class come nov.

 

[Joey Bags]

Pike’s going to have to let Ace and Dylan ball. None of this getting pulled for not playing enough defense nonsense. The two of them should be able to outscore most of our head to head player competition.

 

[BOGDANOVICH]

Interesting factoid: Duke has recruited over 100 5 star players over the last thirty or so years. UConn has recruited about 10 in that period. Yet UConn has won more championships in that period than vaunted Duke. In other words, getting five star players is no guarantee of anything. It is the coaching that makes the biggest difference. Next year will tell us a lot about Pike's coaching abilities.

 

[jerzeyguy]

Pike was a Mag injury away last yr -- from having 4 tournament teams in a row. The fact people are asking when are we gonna put expectations on him.. Is actually evidence that we already put high expectations on him

 

[PhillyRU]

The NCAA tournament is the greatest sporting event in the world, but it’s super high variance and, in my opinion, not the best thing to evaluate the success of a season on.

Seed line, great wins and challenging for a B1G title are more important to me — with Edey, Buie, TSJ, Tominaga and Tyson Walker all gone, the top of the conference feels pretty wide open

 

[RURahh]

Take 5 guys that have never played together along with 6-8 that have never been on the same court and that is a lot for Pike to juggle. As @KK1827 points out even in our NCAA teans, Pike runs a fundamentally flawed offense and needs to make a MacConnell type hire to put an offensive scheme in place. The teams projected as 1 seeds all have a solid nucleus of guys who played together previously and just add missing puzzle pieces like Cam. We are starting with a brand new out of the box puzzle

 

[colbert17]

is Calipari getting fired

My daughter and son in law are both UK grads and still live in Lexington. There are rumblings about Cal.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

The levels of not knowing anything, or very little about basketball as a fanbase, is why actual discussions are so far from reality.

No one watches basketball but starts threads about CBB.....??

If Duke actually had 3 lottery picks just 5 or 6 years ago. (Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish) and lost in the Elite 8 to Michigan State, in 2019, it's certainly possible that just 2 potential lottery picks, may not be able to carry an entire roster to that level. And no one is claiming Pike is Coach K at Duke.

RU entered this season with 2 Top 150 kids on the roster....teams like Michigan State have 10......it's really unfortunate that over a length of time during this Pike era, how little or unaware our fan base actually is, about basketball recruiting and what other programs in the B1G or at Kentucky, Carolina, Duke, Kansas, Texas, UConn or even Michigan, Michigan State etc have. One very good recruiting class doesn't erase the last 4 before it. The portal will help, but so will players like Gavin and others like JWill, improving this spring and summer.

I'm actually very excited about not just next year, but beyond that. And I'm comfortable that some tough decisions were made to not chase a couple more wins last season in the portal and to do something bigger for this offseason instead.

 

[RUSCFORMERLYRULOU]

The levels of not knowing anything, or very little about basketball as a fanbase, is why actual discussions are so far from reality.

No one watches basketball but starts threads about CBB.....??

If Duke actually had 3 lottery picks just 5 or 6 years ago. (Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish) and lost in the Elite 8 to Michigan State, in 2019, it's certainly possible that just 2 potential lottery picks, may not be able to carry an entire roster to that level. And no one is claiming Pike is Coach K at Duke.

RU entered this season with 2 Top 150 kids on the roster....teams like Michigan State have 10......it's really unfortunate that over a length of time during this Pike era, how little or unaware our fan base actually is, about basketball recruiting and what other programs in the B1G or at Kentucky, Carolina, Duke, Kansas, Texas, UConn or even Michigan, Michigan State etc have. One very good recruiting class doesn't erase the last 4 before it. The portal will help, but so will players like Gavin and others like JWill, improving this spring and summer.

I'm actually very excited about not just next year, but beyond that. And I'm comfortable that some tough decisions were made to not chase a couple more wins last season in the portal and to do something bigger for this offseason instead.

Sorry Hawk - your take in the last paragraph makes no sense. There was no Dylan this time last year. You don’t play for two years ahead.

 

[hinson32]

If we are not ranked headed into the season and let's say picked around 6-9 in the BIG Pre-Season poll what expectations are there really? Fans always have unrealistic expectations. Heck, most poster predicted 18-20 wins and the post season this year. (go back and read the prediction posts).

 

[jaydogsmooth1]

I'm not setting low expecations
I couldn't care less what our history is

I want to win
And win big

Doing that takes talent, which is coming in
It also takes a belief, and a winning mindset

As fans, thinking small defeats the entire purpose of fandom
As players, lowering your expectations is the worst thing you can do

I hope Pike et. Al are embracing the expectations
Acknowledging the pressure
And looking forward to what's ahead

Next year is why we're fans - we have hope, something which has never been in abundance here on The Banks

Personally, I can't wait

 

[RUskoolie]

Hell this off-season is going to be the first major test. This team needs to be blown up.

I am hopeful we are adding experienced upperclassmen to this team and gearing up to make a serious run to win it all.

 

[seansherm]

I hear ya there.

But I’ll also ask this. When will it be fair to set expectations on pike? Will it ever be?

Expectations are now to be a bubble team, year in, year out. Have to hit that level before they can be raised.

 

[KK1827]

tough call. Our program doesn’t have the history and perennial high expections like Indiana that lands coaches on the hot seat. So as long as the program flirts with the NCAA periodically he gets a long leash.

I think things are different now though, no?

When have we ever had

1) top 25 salary
2) top 10 facility
3) can pay kids as well as we can?

And of course top 10 home court

 

[KK1827]

Pike was a Mag injury away last yr -- from having 4 tournament teams in a row. The fact people are asking when are we gonna put expectations on him.. Is actually evidence that we already put high expectations on him

This may be a controversial statement however making the ncaa tourney isnt exactly hard when youre in the big ten. Annually more than half the conference makes it.

 

[KK1827]

Expectations are now to be a bubble team, year in, year out. Have to hit that level before they can be raised.

People hold greg schiano to a much higher standard despite football being a much harder job. Idk, its all a little odd to me

 

[bethlehemfan]

People hold greg schiano to a much higher standard despite football being a much harder job. Idk, its all a little odd to me

Not really. We’ve finished top 40 kenpom rating in bball multiple times now recently. If Greg gets there in football people will be very happy. I don’t think people are thinking sweet 16 or bust. Most people evaluate things over the course of the season taking into account what’s happened to the roster and things that you can’t account for in the world of college basketball. Most people don’t think a random outcome of ~50/50 odds not going your way is the solitary judgment of success. There are those that do for sure but they’re on the fringe. I will say that next year is very unique for rutgers and it will be very interesting. I also agree that expectations will be very high coming in assuming the roster looks good beyond the 2 freshmen.

 

[fatsam98]

This may be a controversial statement however making the ncaa tourney isnt exactly hard when youre in the big ten. Annually more than half the conference makes it.

In a conference with Michigan (yes they're down now but won't be forever), Michigan State, Iowa, Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, Illinois, Wisconsin and soon to be UCLA and USC, it isn't exactly easy either.

You can come on here and set your expectations, but Pike isn't going anywhere so it doesn't really matter.

However next year plays out will be more nuanced than saying "we only got an 8 seed he needs to go!" It's kind of a pointless discussion to be having on March 11th when we have very little idea how the roster will look around the freshmen.

 

[kcg88]

Just about every program besides Duke, UNC, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Kansas, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Baylor has missed two straight tournaments at some point within the past decade.

 

[RUDiddy777]

I’m sure like most basketball fans, I’m happy to finally have the opinion of someone who doesn’t follow the program.

 

[wheezer]

TBH it doesn't matter what the fans will think after next year. The reality is that if Pike can't make some noise with next year's team and show he can put players into the lottery, he will basically be killing his own career. If Ace and Dylan aren't lottery picks, do you think Pike will ever win another recruiting battle for a top player? He won't. I personally think next year will go exceedingly well, but Pike has never had the pressure he's going to have on himself. Next year we'll see what he's made of (and I think we'll all be pleasantly surprised).

Duke doesn't make the final eight every year, with a more loaded roster overall, year after year
We have only one chance

What we should be hoping for is that we make enough noise next year to being in at least several solid four star players,

After Ace and Dylan are gone, a solid top four team in the big as a floor for us

 

[RUJMM78]

Interesting factoid: Duke has recruited over 100 5 star players over the last thirty or so years. UConn has recruited about 10 in that period. Yet UConn has won more championships in that period than vaunted Duke. In other words, getting five star players is no guarantee of anything. It is the coaching that makes the biggest difference. Next year will tell us a lot about Pike's coaching abilities.

Coaches don't normally win national championships with 3 star recruits.The elite basketball programs start every season with a decided advantage in media attention, attracting top tier recruits and achieving national rankings.Programs like Rutgers are outliers hoping to have a season like 1976 but can't sustain success in recruiting.Duke is bringing in a recruiting class of 5 star players that will will probably rank the team number one to start the season. Its not a guarantee of season success but it puts them in a better position than other schools.

 

[Goku]

Just get into the NCAA tournament and don't make us sweat on selection sunday. Do that and I'm happy with the season...that's my opinion on March 11, 2024. It might change as the season progresses.

 

[RUBOB72]

More than fair. It seems too many though are already like “sweet 16, elite 8 or final 4” or bust. Or they’re like “have to be an X seed”. It’s an uphill battle right now. And measuring success by how many games you win in a single elimination tourney is foolish, especially when you haven’t won more than one game in over 40 years. I’d like to see a solid 2025 class before the season start. Then I’d like to see wins through heart, hustle and more offensive prowess. Also I’d like a team that doesn’t quit especially at home.

Is that like the roster reconstruction that went on at St.John’s this season by Petino?

 

[RUDivision]

Expectations are now to be a bubble team, year in, year out. Have to hit that level before they can be raised.

Pikes own expectations for the program are NCAA Tournament or bust. He has said it multiple times e every year. He said it midway through this year. Hold him to his own standards

 

[RUBOB72]

How many coaches don’t say similar things . Hope is a virtue. He needs his team to make it a reality.

 

[RUDivision]

Pike was a Mag injury away last yr -- from having 4 tournament teams in a row. The fact people are asking when are we gonna put expectations on him.. Is actually evidence that we already put high expectations on him

No Pike missed the tournament because he wouldn’t bench or move Paul off the ball . He forgot and froze in the Minnesota game and didn’t call a timeout when the team was falling apart. Mag is not the reason just the excuse.

 

[RUDivision]

How many coaches don’t say similar things . Hope is a virtue. He needs his team to make it a reality.

I agree and those other coaches are held accountable. He creates the program and expectations and we should hold him to his own standards

 

[NickRU714]

The comments on expectations for HC Pike starting next year are interesting considering the "expectations" and criticism against opposing coaches.
Not by their own fans but from ours.

People were doing backflips that HC Woodson to Indiana is returning as if he is some huge failure.
21-22: 9th in Big Ten, NCAA Play-In and won, lost in 1st round
22-23: T-2nd in Big Ten, NCAA lost in 2nd round
23-24: T-6th
Better than us every single year. But somehow it's a positive for Rutgers that he is returning.

HC Howard/Michigan was mocked for not even making the NCAA tournament last year despite 3 1st round picks. He finished T-5th in the Big Ten regardless. Made NIT 2nd round.
This year is an outright disaster - last in the Big Ten.
But previously to the those 2 years he won the Big Ten, went to 2 straight tournaments, made the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.
2 great years, 1 not good, 1 disaster.
Basically better every year as well until this year. But 13th over 14th in the league isn't some great accomplishment.