BACATOLOGY: 2/20 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS...UPDATE RUTGERS NOW A 9 SEED AS OF 2/24
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Wow, that was close. Crowd might have finally woken up if he had hit that
New Mexico have been road warriors all year so no surprise they are up at Boise 37-31 at the half
Wisconsin moved up to 72 in the NET, so that's a Q1 win for now
Iowa suddenly finding themselves in an urgent spot next time out at home against Michigan State. If they lose that one then they've got to play at Indiana. Lose both of those and they're 17-13 with a home finale against Nebraska.
They'd enter the conference tournament 6-9 in Q1, 5-3 in Q2, 0-0 in Q3 (so, the dreaded "below .500 in the first three quadrants") AND they have a Q4 loss. The strength of their wins is decent but not outstanding: Their Q1 wins are at Rutgers, vs Rutgers, vs Iowa State, vs Indiana, at Seton Hall, vs Maryland. That's probably still a tournament profile but it can dicey quick. Of course if they win one of the next two they're breathing easy.
They'd enter the conference tournament 6-9 in Q1, 5-3 in Q2, 0-0 in Q3 (so, the dreaded "below .500 in the first three quadrants") AND they have a Q4 loss. The strength of their wins is decent but not outstanding: Their Q1 wins are at Rutgers, vs Rutgers, vs Iowa State, vs Indiana, at Seton Hall, vs Maryland. That's probably still a tournament profile but it can dicey quick. Of course if they win one of the next two they're breathing easy.
Hoping we can get a 6 or 7 seed vs one of these Mountain West teams not named San Diego State (Nevada, Boise, Utah State, New Mexico). They aren't very good, feels like the conference is overrated in the metrics
And a 2nd round game against an ACC team!
Have watched a few MWC games, they are entertaining and shoot well so then again maybe not…
The Q3 thing with the NET is something to be examined among the Mountain West. Utah State 12 wins there but ZERO quad 1 wins
Yeah the bulky loss total is suddenly in play. Likely need one more regular season. You can see how tight things are where for some school ine loss even vs a Q1 school can tumble you a couple seed line. Iowa was my last 6 going into last night and that is going to change quickly
Another strong-ish night for the bubble with 4 wins against the 2.92 projection. Kentucky is nearly locked in, Wisconsin got a much-needed win, North Carolina avoided a horrible loss, and medics detected a faint heartbeat for Clemson. On the flipside Vanderbilt's weak bubble has popped, and in the double bubble special Boise State took care of business and knocked off New Mexico to solidify the Broncos' case and putting UNM's backs up against the wall.
Tonight on The Young And The Bubble:
(6:30) Penn State (42%) at Ohio State - It's cute that the computers are still somehow overrating Ohio State. Even without accounting for Zed Key's absence this number is ridiculous. This is Q1 for now for Penn State and it's badly needed: they're just 2-7 in that department. They've won only two games on the road all season and one was against Minnesota. They're not dead with a loss because there are three more Q1 games coming down the pike, but this would be a really bad way to begin their stretch run.
(7:00) Memphis (66%) at Wichita State - Memphis' assignment is simple: don't lose a dumb one. If they knock off Wichita, Cincinnati, and SMU then I think they're IN even without a win over Houston. At that point they could even stomach a neutral site conference tournament loss to a team like Tulane, UCF, or Cincy. The status of their star PG is uncertain... they played well without him in a loss against Houston but like Rutgers' second half against MSU without Mag sometimes you see a team rally after an injury only for the real effect to be delayed.
(7:00) North Texas (56%) at Charlotte - The Mean Green are on one ballot on Bracket Matrix. Lunardi lists him just ahead of Seton Hall. So I suppose I'll include them here. They're trying to get there on the back of a volume of wins. At 21-5, they haven't lost since January 19. Their only Q1 win is a cheapie at UAB. Their path to an at-large is to win out all the way to the C-USA championship and lose to Florida Atlantic. That could be enough if the bubble falls the right way around them. Any additional loss eliminates them.
(7:00) UTSA at Florida Atlantic (98%) - Speaking of FAU, they take on the worst team in C-USA today. This would be upset of the year material.
(7:00) Towson at Charleston (81%) - Charleston has won five straight after being written off for two consecutive losses a couple weeks back, and the relative weakness of the bubble has them in the mix despite no Q1 wins (0-1) and a ridiculous 15-0 Q4 mark. Towson is the third or fourth best team in the CAA and could end all dreams of multiple bids from that conference. The path to that happening would be Charleston losing to Hofstra in the CAA title game.
(8:30) Michigan (30%) at Rutgers - We all know the deal here. With a Michigan win they at least start to make their case, though they'd still be only 3-10 in Q1. Rutgers would slip to the 9/10 border with a loss.
(9:00) USC (40%) at Colorado - The first of three Q1 games in a row for the Trojans. They've got to at least split the mountain road trip against Colorado and Utah, the kind of cheapie Q1 win (on the road against teams ranked 50-75) that puffs your metrics without being all that impressive.
(11:00) UCLA at Utah (30%) - The Utes are on the furthest edge of the bubble, their 17-11 record puffed up by a 10-0 mark in Q4. They probably need to win all three remaining games, but luckily for them this one is a high-impact Q1 game. Score a win and they'll be in the mix.
Eight games for the bubble tonight with 4.43 expected wins, goosed by the near-certain FAU win,
8 St Mary's 11 Q3 wins
15 Arkansas who really has nothing to write home about on the resume, 4 wins vs schools in the field including SD St has 10 Q3 wins
16 San Diego State 12 Q3 wins
31 Utah State 12 Q3 wins
Obviously the more Q1/2 games you schedule and win the better your net will be but there seems to be a secondary path to explore which involves aggregating a massive amount of Q3 wins
update
LAST FOUR BYES: MEMPHIS, WEST VIRGINIA, BOISE STATE, NEVADA
LAST FOUR IN: USC, OKLAHOMA STATE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, WISCONSIN
FIRST FOUR OUT: CHARLESTON, MICHIGAN, PENN STATE, NEW MEXICO
NEXT FOUR OUT: UTAH STATE, TEXAS TECH, NORTH CAROLINA, SETON HALL
LAST FOUR BYES: MEMPHIS, WEST VIRGINIA, BOISE STATE, NEVADA
LAST FOUR IN: USC, OKLAHOMA STATE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, WISCONSIN
FIRST FOUR OUT: CHARLESTON, MICHIGAN, PENN STATE, NEW MEXICO
NEXT FOUR OUT: UTAH STATE, TEXAS TECH, NORTH CAROLINA, SETON HALL
That's pretty funny, but to be fair it didn't look like the inbounder saw that the guy was limping, and he looked briefly okay for the second he was standing there waiting for the pass. I'm guessing he didn't realize how injured he was.
Nobody watches the first four. It's insane for them to think that expanding and adding an extra weekend is going to add eyeballs. Maybe the first year people will be curious and then they'll see the diluted product.
I'm not a tournament expansion supporter, but I think a full day of action would probably draw more viewers than the first four. For one thing it would be included in the bracket pools instead of being ignored like the first four is.
It depends when it starts. Part of the appeal I think is that people have three full days to fill out their brackets and talk with their friends and coworkers about who they're picking. If they pick the field Sunday and bracket pools lock on Tuesday at noon that's going to be detrimental for interest in the tournament among casual fans.
I guess my point is more that by watering down the product, people will not want to watch after the first few years.
Your first four out at this time last year:
BYU: 3-5 Q1, 4-3 Q2, with a Q4 loss
SMU: 2-1 Q1, 3-3 Q2, with a Q3 and a Q4 loss
Florida: 2-7 Q1, 3-2 Q2, with a Q4 loss
North Carolina: 1-7 Q1, 4-0 Q2, with a Q4 loss
Is that really so different from this year? That BYU profile would probably be in. Are we putting that SMU profile ahead of this year's Wisconsin/USC/etc? That Florida profile is about equal to Oregon this year. Oregon is 3-7 Q1, 5-4 Q2, 3-2 Q3, zero Q4 losses. Call the Florida Q4 loss equal to Oregon's two Q3 losses. Ducks have an extra Q1 win and two extra Q2 wins, while still only being one game above .500 in Q2.
I would agree that there are many fewer teams with realistic paths this year compared to last year, which I'm just now realizing is probably what you meant.
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Idk I don’t hate Wisconsin’s resume and you have them as the very last team in.
Neutral OOC wins over Dayton and USC plus a huge road OOC win @ Marquette.
Sweeps over Iowa and PSU, beat Maryland and Michigan at home plus another road win @OSU.
Brutally close losses to Kansas, Wake, MSU, NW 2x and Rutgers.
Still some great opportunities to add to the resume.
i have them as 4th team in today
they are just 16-12 with a tough schedule....17-14 going into the Big 10 tourney would be disastrous..do you think they can beat Purdue, I dont.
its the outside of the bubble that is the issue
Oregon is not on the bubble Arizona State has done nothing. Utah State has zero quad one wins Michigan 15-12 is not as good as their 15-12 from last year. UNC at least had Duke a top team as a win last year along with a gazillion Q3 wins. New Mexico has 3 Q3 losses and a Q4 but remains a contender just because they have 2 great non conference wins. Va Tech is still under consideration because they do have 4 quality wins despite a 6-11 acc mark
almost all of the teams in the field are safe, yes we quibble about Rutgers but the reality is 1 of 2 of the Big 12 on the last 8 are guaranteed to go, the question is will the other remain, if not its going to be a school like Michigan taking their place.
in reality there may be just 2-3 spots available when in other years you can say hey it looks like he could get bid stealers somewhere or the A10 or AAC. Is anyone buying the ludricous idea that Villanova is going to win the Big East tournament
people literally take off from work to watch the tourney. all day Tuesday viewing isnt going to be a hit and do we need to see a bunch of 19-11 aac and a10 schools or 18-13 pac 12 schools in the field when they have basically have a combined one win vs teams in the field of 68
Gotcha, thought your last 4 in was in order.
They are 16-11 btw but agreed otherwise, they are right on the bubble so work to do of course but not a pathetic bubble team was my point.
You have Michigan way higher than most. I'd argue the home loss to Central Michigan is probably the most damaging loss that any bubble team has.
Not just because of how bad CMU is, but because that's probably the difference between being in the tournament and at best last eight out.
If Michigan wins that game, they'd probably be 10+ spots higher in the NET, and at 16-11, 9-7, my guess is they'd be just at the cut line (if not a spot above).
If they add another weekend and refer to it as the NIT, with 4 pods of 4 teams, with each pod champion advancing to the NCAA tournament, it doesn’t dilute the brand, while lifting up the NIT.
Not true.
“This year’s (2022) NCAA First Four on TruTV is the most-watched ever for the first Tuesday and Wednesday of the NCAA Tournament, with both days setting viewership records,” March Madness said in a press release. “Gross average viewership for Tuesday and Wednesday’s doubleheaders totaled 6.9 million viewers, up 28% vs. 2019. NCAA March Madness Live also sets new all-time marks in live unique viewers and total minutes viewer for First Four coverage, with each day generating records. Official March Madness accounts produced all-time First Four milestones for engagements across social channels.”
https://www.on3.com/college/rutgers...irst-four-ncaa-tournament-march-madness-2022/
