BACATOLOGY: 2/20 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS...UPDATE RUTGERS NOW A 9 SEED AS OF 2/24

[bac2therac]

update going into the weekend

ONE SEEDS

• ALABAMA*
• HOUSTON*
• PURDUE*
• KANSAS*

TWO SEEDS

• TEXAS
• ARIZONA
• BAYLOR
• UCLA*

THREE SEEDS

• KANSAS STATE
• MARQUETTE*
• GONZAGA
• TENNESSEE

FOUR SEEDS

• VIRGINIA
• CONNECTICUT
• IOWA STATE
• INDIANA

FIVE SEEDS

• SAINT MARY'S*
• MIAMI
• XAVIER
• TCU

SIX SEEDS

• SAN DIEGO STATE
• NORTHWESTERN
• CREIGHTON
• ILLINOIS

7 SEEDS

• MISSOURI
• MICHIGAN STATE
• TEXAS A & M
• MARYLAND

8 SEEDS

• PROVIDENCE
• IOWA
• ARKANSAS
• DUKE

9 SEEDS

• PITTSBURGH
• KENTUCKY
• NORTH CAROLINA STATE
• RUTGERS

1O SEEDS

• AUBURN
• NEVADA
• BOISE STATE
• FLORIDA ATLANTIC

11 SEEDS

• WEST VIRGINIA
• MEMPHIS
• WISCONSIN
• USC
• OKLAHOMA STATE
• MICHIGAN

FIRST 4 OUT

• PENN STATE
• MISSISSIPPI STATE
• CHARLESTON
• NEW MEXICO

NEXT 4 OUT

• UTAH STATE
• TEXAS TECH
• NORTH CAROLINA
• SETON HALL

BARELY ALIVE

• ARIZONA STATE
• CLEMSON
• VIRGINIA TECH
• OREGON

LAST FOUR BYES: MEMPHIS, WEST VIRGINIA, BOISE STATE, NEVADA
LAST FOUR IN: MICHIGAN, OKLAHOMA STATE, USC, WISCONSIN

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

If we lose respectfully to PSU. In a vacuum. Where do we drop to ?

 

[bac2therac]

Rutgers is now my last 9 seed. They are the 10th team in the tourney. The entire 9 seed grouping along with the 3 at large 10s are very very tight grouping right now. 7 schools jockeying on 9/10. You will start to see RU showing up as 10s and even 11s today in some brackets. Not last 4 in yet but lose to Penn State and you will see talk of that..not sure I would put them there without crunching the numbers and deep diving into comparing resumes. Rutgers can stabilize their situation on the 9 seed with a win over Penn State. Its almost looking like a best case that RU is in the 8/9 game. RU could win 3 in a row and gain a quality win in the Big 10 tourney to maybe be a 7 but I would say prospects of a 7 are dimming rapidly...and at that point you almost hope they drop to a 10

 

[bac2therac]

If we lose respectfully to PSU. In a vacuum. Where do we drop to ?

RU will still be the field with a loss to Penn State. Its a Quad 1 loss. Keep in mind though, that might be the kind of win to push Penn State into the field. Wisconsin and Michigan are already jockeying in the last 4 in, last 4 out...that is 3 Big 10 schools there....RU will come close to that area with a loss. Big 10 tourney will be very important for all.

RU will be an 11 seed with a loss, whether its still one of the bye 11s or first four games would be in question

 

[Scangg]

Rutgers is now my last 9 seed. They are the 10th team in the tourney. The entire 9 seed grouping along with the 3 at large 10s are very very tight grouping right now. 7 schools jockeying on 9/10. You will start to see RU showing up as 10s and even 11s today in some brackets. Not last 4 in yet but lose to Penn State and you will see talk of that..not sure I would put them there without crunching the numbers and deep diving into comparing resumes. Rutgers can stabilize their situation on the 9 seed with a win over Penn State. Its almost looking like a best case that RU is in the 8/9 game. RU could win 3 in a row and gain a quality win in the Big 10 tourney to maybe be a 7 but I would say prospects of a 7 are dimming rapidly...and at that point you almost hope they drop to a 10

10 seed is kinda what I'm hoping for at this point

 

[bac2therac]

Not all the bloated major conference schools will get bids

Two schools to worry about are Charleston and Oral Roberts who have a 50/50 shot of getting in as at larges. Bracketologists are not following the unwritten rule as most are putting Charleston as AQ from the Colonial even though Hofstra is one win away from securing top seed in that tourney.

Then there is UNC. A win over Virginia or Duke will put them in play again.

 

[bac2therac]

10 seed is kinda what I'm hoping for at this point

alot depends on those Mountain West schools. It is always hard to seed them because of the inflated NETs. I have them behind RU right now but they easily could be seeded ahead of RU.

 

[bac2therac]

The Wisconsin at Michigan game has huge implications. I mean a loss knocks Michigan back out of the field. I like Michigan in as of today, I know most others do not have them in but I think they have a bit better profile than both Mississippi State and Penn State who they lost to. Wisconsin may be able to sustain a loss and still be in the field but could depend on what Penn State does. The Badgers non conference win over Marquette is a big asset here plus the one over USC.

Rutgers unfortunately has zippo non conference wins and a sos there of 306

Penn State and Michigan also have nothing OOC but they did play a better sos than RU

 

[StevieB160]

Interesting that there is basically a consensus right now on who the at large teams are on bracket matrix. Of course that will likely change.

 

[kcg88]

I would love to sign up for a non-Dayton 11 seed right now.

 

[G- RUnit]

Don’t mind 10 or 11 at all just as not as a play in game.

Rather that game than 8/9 game so all is not lost.

 

[UofMbasketball]

The Wisconsin at Michigan game has huge implications. I mean a loss knocks Michigan back out of the field. I like Michigan in as of today, I know most others do not have them in but I think they have a bit better profile than both Mississippi State and Penn State who they lost to. Wisconsin may be able to sustain a loss and still be in the field but could depend on what Penn State does. The Badgers non conference win over Marquette is a big asset here plus the one over USC.

Rutgers unfortunately has zippo non conference wins and a sos there of 306

Penn State and Michigan also have nothing OOC but they did play a better sos than RU

BAC i hope you are right but the current resume has Michigan at NET of 53 and 3-10 in Q1 with a Q4 loss. There's no way that makes the tournament. We are 1.5 games behind the bubble on torvik and anything below -1 on WAB pretty much never makes it. MSU, Northwestern, and Pitt are all right on the border so it's possible for that number to grow, but to 4 or 5, but last year we had a SOS of 3 and NET of like 32 and this year we have an SOS of 25. It's too little too late imo. 19 wins and Michigan might get on the bubble, but not at 16-12

 

[bac2therac]

they have 6 wins vs teams in the field. The key is winning 2 of next 3, if they dont they are in trouble

 

[Scangg]

Richie said on the pod we could lose out and 95% of still making it... that seems very optimistic

 

[bac2therac]

Richie said on the pod we could lose out and 95% of still making it... that seems very optimistic

that is just wrong 100%

If RU loses its last 4, they are not getting in at 17-15

 

[bac2therac]

Seton Hall must win tonight vs Xavier to stay in the hunt for an at large. They currently trail 35-19 in the 1st half

Current a Q2 loss for RU they are dangerously close to becoming Rutgers 3 Q3 loss

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

Seton Hall must win tonight vs Xavier to stay in the hunt for an at large. They currently trail 35-19 in the 1st half

Current a Q2 loss for RU they are dangerously close to becoming Rutgers 3 Q3 loss

Yeah but don’t we want them to lose to stay away from us on bubble

 

[RU23]

*first 4 out bac

 

[kcg88]

Seton Hall is autobid or bust and probably Q3 for us now

 

[bac2therac]

Seton Hall is autobid or bust and probably Q3 for us now

Yeah they probably lose the next 2. Suck this happened

Perhaps Wake can sneak back to Q2

 

[kcg88]

Nevada won at Fresno State. They're probably fine even if they only split their final 2 games (Wyoming and UNLV).

 

[bac2therac]

Rutgers now has 3 Q3 losses as SHU falls to 78

 

[fatsam98]

I guess we switch to rooting against teams on the bubble now. So today, root against:

Charleston (vs Stony Brook)
Clemson (@ NC State)
Texas Tech (vs TCU)
Arizona St (@ Arizona)
Florida Atlantic (vs UTEP)
OK State (vs Kansas St)
Mississippi St (vs Texas A&M)
West Virginia (@ Kansas)
UNC (vs Virginia)
Boise St (@ San Jose St)
Va Tech (@ Duke)
USC (@ Utah)
New Mexico (vs San Diego St)
Oregon (@ Oregon State)

At this point I'm hoping for a non-Dayton 11 seed. Or if not that, a 10 seed.

 

[koko2315]

In the tournament and I’m happy
A rebuilding year where we overachieved for a long while
Plenty of time to adjust the lineup post mag
Bounce back and punch that ticket

 

[kcg88]

Rutgers blew a home game now they've gotta watch as a bunch of bubble teams play at home today

 

[kcg88]

Rutgers now has 3 Q3 losses as SHU falls to 78

This is where the quadrant system sucks because it's three upper level Q3 losses

 

[bac2therac]

This is where the quadrant system sucks because it's three upper level Q3 losses

Yeah but like with Q1 wins that can be meaningless like Florida or Colorado the committee does dig deeper

The issue for RU is that potentially now has 3 red flags that the committee can use as justification to pass over

14 losses, ooc sos 306 plus no significant ooc win, 3 q3 losses

 

[bac2therac]

Villanova crushing Creighton in the first half by 17

 

[fatsam98]

Clemson up big at NC State. They're still technically alive right?

 

[G- RUnit]

Clemson going to take NC’s bid?

Is Nova now alive? Win the Big East and steal a bid?

 

[bac2therac]

Yes. This would be a huge win for them but still need more. Too many problematic losses

For NC State despite their gaudy win total they possess just 2 wins vs teams in the field

 

[G- RUnit]

Yeah but like with Q1 wins that can be meaningless like Florida or Colorado the committee does dig deeper

The issue for RU is that potentially now has 3 red flags that the committee can use as justification to pass over

14 losses, ooc sos 306 plus no significant ooc win, 3 q3 losses

Wake is a perfectly fine win.

 

[bac2therac]

Clemson going to take NC’s bid?

Is Nova now alive? Win the Big East and steal a bid?

Lol dont fall for it

 

[bac2therac]

Wake is a perfectly fine win.

No its not

 

[RutgersClassof2004]

Richie said on the pod we could lose out and 95% of still making it... that seems very optimistic

That's absurd.

 

[scarletnewyorker2006]

Clemson up big at NC State. They're still technically alive right?

Where the hell does Clemson get off blowing out a good team on the road. This is bullshit.

 

[bac2therac]

Nc State is no sure thing anymore

Ditto for Iowa

 

[scarletknight077]

That OSU loss is really weighing heavily. I know we’ve screwed up our own standing with the nebreska and Mich games but if we weren’t robbed against osu then we are probably a lock with just a Minnesota win. Also we would be still tied for 3rd place at 10-7. It’s gonna be a real travesty if we are a first four out school when all is said and done.

 

[shields]

Fran is a jerk.

 

[bac2therac]

Texas Tech up 1 with 7.5 sec