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BACATOLOGY: 3/11 NCAA Tournament Analysis***Rutgers 95% in***

Gotta say that call against Thornton looks ridiculous. He jumped straight up for that pass and Newman went into him.

Not that the game is in doubt here.
 
Atmosphere there is a morgue and announcers awful
From a bid stealers, correct me on what’s left.

UAB - win and in
AAC winner not Hou / Memphis - win and in (two teams alive)
Vandy - could get in with a win today, win tourney and in
VCU - if they lose their title game


Not that I get a vote, but based on this I have to think that barring Vandy winning their tournament- we are “a lock“. I would believe our resume trumps Vandy and VCU. This is based on all the bracket people I’ve been reading and following.

I do think, that any auto bid win above may push us definitely to Dayton.

Caveat is, who knows what the committee is deciding.
 
From a bid stealers, correct me on what’s left.

UAB - win and in
AAC winner not Hou / Memphis - win and in (two teams alive)
Vandy - could get in with a win today, win tourney and in
VCU - if they lose their title game


Not that I get a vote, but based on this I have to think that barring Vandy winning their tournament- we are “a lock“. I would believe our resume trumps Vandy and VCU. This is based on all the bracket people I’ve been reading and following.

I do think, that any auto bid win above may push us definitely to Dayton.

Caveat is, who knows what the committee is deciding.

My take as well

Can’t say it enough ..the extra rest we would get by not being in Dayton is potentially huge .
 
ONE SEEDS
  • KANSAS*
  • ALABAMA*
  • HOUSTON*
  • PURDUE*

TWO SEEDS
  • UCLA*
  • TEXAS
  • BAYLOR
  • ARIZONA

THREE SEEDS
  • GONZAGA*
  • MARQUETTE*
  • KANSAS STATE
  • CONNECTICUT

FOUR SEEDS
  • TENNESSEE
  • XAVIER
  • INDIANA
  • VIRGINIA*

FIVE SEEDS
  • SAN DIEGO STATE*
  • IOWA STATE
  • DUKE
  • TCU

SIX SEEDS
  • MIAMI
  • TEXAS A & M
  • SAINT MARY'S
  • MISSOURI

7 SEEDS
  • KENTUCKY
  • NORTHWESTERN
  • CREIGHTON
  • MICHIGAN STATE

8 SEEDS
  • FLORIDA ATLANTIC*
  • IOWA
  • ARKANSAS
  • MARYLAND

9 SEEDS
  • ILLINOIS
  • MEMPHIS
  • WEST VIRGINIA
  • PENN STATE

10 SEEDS
  • USC
  • AUBURN
  • BOISE STATE
  • RUTGERS

11 SEEDS
  • UTAH STATE
  • MISSISSIPPI STATE
  • PROVIDENCE
  • ARIZONA STATE
  • PITTSBURGH
  • NORTH CAROLINA STATE

TWELVE SEEDS
  • (42) ORAL ROBERTS*
  • CHARLESTON*
  • VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH*
  • DRAKE*

THIRTEEN SEEDS
  • IONA*
  • TOLEDO*
  • YALE*
  • LOUISIANA*

FOURTEEN SEEDS
  • FURMAN*
  • SOUTHERN UTAH*
  • CAL-SANTA BARBARA
  • KENNESAW STATE*

FIFTEEN SEEDS
  • COLGATE*
  • MONTANA STATE*
  • VERMONT*
  • UNC ASHEVILLE*

SIXTEEN SEEDS
  • NORTHERN KENTUCKY*
  • GRAMBLING STATE*
  • TEXAS A & M CORPUS CHRISTI*
  • SOUTHESAST MISSOURI STATE*
  • HOWARD*
  • FDU*

LAST 4 BYES: MISSISSIPPI STATE, UTAH STATE, RUTGERS, BOISE STATE
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA STATE, PITTSBURGH, ARIZONA STATE, PROVIDENCE

FIRST 4 OUT: NEVADA, VANDERBILT, OKLAHOMA STATE, CLEMSON
NEXT 6 OUT: WISCONSIN, NEW MEXICO, OREGON, NORTH CAROLINA, MICHIGAN, NORTH TEXAS




This is just how I see things today on 3/11 and 12:30 PM. The entire field and seeds will be scrubbed and alot of numbers crunching overnight and tomorrow morning that could change things

With Rutgers, I believe Rutgers is 90% locked in the field. I think its 60/40 that we avoid Dayton. Rutgers has a shot at 10 here but its tenuous for sure. Do not necessarily expect that. 11 might be more correct. Rutgers fans should sweat less than last year. Right now 101 of 105 brackets on the Matrix have RU in the field, although right now in Dayton. The big thing for me is 7 wins vs schools in the field and the high end over a projected one seed is glorious.

I feel North Carolina State has the weakest profile of any of the teams in the field and could easily be passed up for ANY of my projected first 4 out. I do not think any of the next 6 out can get into the field.

Vanderbilt is coming with a rush. I made a post last night that i need to apologize for. I said that they needed to win the SEC tourney to get in. That was just wrong and reactionary and I should have known better. If Vandy wins today I will put them in the field. If they do not they still have a shot to get in but probably less than 50/50. They are 10-10 in Q1/2. 7 wins vs schools in the field including 2 high level Q1 wins over Tennessee and at Arkansas. The other 5 wins are Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Auburn and last 2 in Pitt. It is interesting their Q4 loss was to Grambling State who is the projected AQ from the SWAC and could actually move into Q3 today. 2 Q3 loss,, the Southern Miss one not all that bad and truly the only bad one was LSU which is their only loss in their last 11 games. SOS is a fine 22. Remember a late run by Texas A&M in this same SEC tourney was rejected in favor of a flimsy resume from Notre Dame. So let us test that.

Utah State is getting in because the metrics are great. 18 in the NET in the 5th rated conference. Yes only two wins in Q1 and in field vs Boise 2-4. But Q2 is 9-1 giving them 11-5 in Q1/2. Q3 they have a whopping 13 wins and the 24-5 mark in Q1/2/3 is why their NET is 18. Now they have 2 Q4 losses and their fans in bracketology seem to be ignoring them. I do not say I like having them in and in general think the Mountain West is overrated. Beating San Diego State probably moves them to the 9 line. Whether a full scrub can put them over RU or into the first four is yet to be determined.

Pittsburgh's saving grace might be a win over Northwestern and knocking off North Carolina State in their only meeting but as said above they also lost to Vanderbilt

Bac, my buddy went to Clemson and is livid about some brackets having NC State over them. He can accept being on the bubble but no way should NC state be in over them. We just compared their schedules. I do t see it either. Big obvious is they played each other 3 times and Clemson beat their ass all three times by a total of 65 points!!!!!! Just using these two, please tell me how YOU also have nc state over them. Based on what?
 
I want to be an 11 seed playing on Friday afternoon. Let me enjoy the first day of the tournament in peace.
ricky GIF
 
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Bac, my buddy went to Clemson and is livid about some brackets having NC State over them. He can accept being on the bubble but no way should NC state be in over them. We just compared their schedules. I do t see it either. Big obvious is they played each other 3 times and Clemson beat their ass all three times by a total of 65 points!!!!!! Just using these two, please tell me how YOU also have nc state over them. Based on what?


its tough situation there. Clemson has 2 Q3 losses and 2 Q4. Nc state has no bad losses on a blah resume
 
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I want to be an 11 seed playing on Friday afternoon. Let me enjoy the first day of the tournament in peace.
I'll copy and paste what I posted earlier in another thread here on geography/dates.

Long story short, if we're an 11 seed I think it's likely (but not definite) that we're in one of Albany, Columbus, or Greensboro... All of which are Friday/Sunday sites. Fingers crossed.
 
Here's my latest thinking on geography.

Assuming we're an 11 seed (whether in Dayton or not), which appears to be the general consensus today from Lunardi, Wachtel, and others, we'd be in an opening weekend pod with a 6 seed, a 3 seed, and a 14 seed. The geography will be dictated by whoever that 3 seed is. The 8 sites are assigned to the top 16 seeds, preferential treatment given to the higher seeds until each site is 'used' twice.

Reasonably Likely
  • Albany (w/ UConn)
  • Greensboro (w/ Tennessee or Kansas State)
  • Columbus (w/ Marquette or Xavier or Kansas State)
Unlikely
  • Orlando (will likely fall to two 4 seeds -- none of the top 16 seeds are geographically near Orlando)
  • Sacramento (in theory could happen if Gonzaga is a 3 seed and they give Sacramento to UCLA and Arizona goes to Denver, leaving Sacramento for the Zags)
  • Denver (most brackets have two of Arizona/Texas/Baylor going there, all current 2 seeds). But could fall to a 3 seed if they put the Texas schools in Des Moines instead
  • Des Moines (possibly with Marquette or even Gonzaga depending on how the final seed list pans out). But Kansas is a lock for Des Moines and likely one of Texas or Baylor.
Definitely Not Happening
  • Birmingham (1 seeds Houston and Alabama will be there)
If we end up as a 10 seed (like Bac is currently predicting) then Sacramento/Denver/Des Moines become very likely.

If something weird happens with bid thieves and we somehow fall to a 12 seed, Orlando and Albany and to a lesser extent Greensboro are likely.

Lastly, not to look too far ahead, but the first weekend sites are NOT linked to specific regions ahead of Selection Sunday. So for example if we end up in Albany it could be in the West Region. Or dream scenario we get Albany and it's in the East Region
 
A&M all over Vanderbilt 19-5 early. Seems like every bubble team except us is ending the year getting blown out. Probably doesn't matter but who knows
 
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Houston up bigly at half in front of dozens of people.... 38-23.

Was worried about this one, stupid me.
 
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A&M all over Vanderbilt 19-5 early. Seems like every bubble team except us is ending the year getting blown out. Probably doesn't matter but who knows
The other thing here is Vanderbilt is getting whooped basically at a home site. If the BIG tourney was held in Newark and we made a run you know every pundit would mention that however.
 
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I am also hoping for a Friday first game, no Dayton, as I will be chaperoning my son's middle school trip to Universal Studios from Thursday to Sunday AM and thus unable to watch games live until Sunday. So please, make it a win Friday and then I can watch Sunday live.
 
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Crazy year. Hard to see many teams we beat seeded higher than us, with a few breaks we could have been a 6 or better. Let’s get in and make some waves and set a new standard to beat next year.
 
Fordham-Dayton close game in 2nd half in A10 semis at Barclays.

Fordham just hit a 3 to take the lead. Good atmosphere
 
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