Week 4 of Bacatology. We are less than week from Selection Sunday. It has been a fun ride. Just when you think you know what is coming, you are thrown a curveball. Expect more of the unexpected to come this week. Comments and questions are always welcome. Corrections are always helpful especially spelling. Tips are mandatory! This weekend just reminded us of the madness which is to come.
There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference). * denotes projected AQ. There are 36 at large bids. I am projecting 24 at large locks leaving 12 available spots in the field. I am projecting 22 schools competing for those 12 open spots. Everyone up to the 2nd 9 seed is locked in right now.
ONE SEEDS
TWO SEEDS
THREE SEEDS
FOUR SEEDS
FIVE SEEDS
SIX SEEDS
7 SEEDS
8 SEEDS
9 SEEDS
10 SEEDS
ELEVEN SEEDS
TWELVE SEEDS
THIRTEEN SEEDS
FOURTEEN SEEDS
FIFTEEN SEEDS
SIXTEEN SEEDS
BUBBLE OUT
(36) NEVADA 21-9: Wolfpack had a rough week adding 2 Quad 3 losses to their profile and that combined with Utah State's metric surge has bounced the Pack all the way out of the field. The 4-5 mark in Q1 and 8-7 vs Q1/2 on paper seem pretty good. Yet only 3 wins vs teams in the field: San Diego State, Boise State and now Utah State and they were all at home. Further in is a win vs Sam Houston who may or may not be the AQ from WAC. Note they got swept by UNLV and lost to Loyola Marymount as well. It is a rather bland resume which would be okay if not for the losses last week. To assure themselves of a bid, Nevada needs to play their way back into the field and that might mean knocking off San Diego State in the MWC semis. First they will have to deal with a surging San Jose State. A loss and I cannot see how they get back in.
(65) ARIZONA STATE 20-11: Sun Devils could not follow up their feather in their cap win over Arizona with wins over UCLA or USC so there is still work to do to state their case. Still a tough propostion because its resting on just the Arizona and Creighton wins. Only 2 wins vs field. 3 if you count A10 projected VCU. The win vs Michigan helps here but they really may be regretting that Quad 4 loss to Texas Southern. 4-5 in Q1 and 8-10 Q1/2 but do not get fooled by Q1 wins over Colorado and Q2 wins over Stanford mattering much. Split with bubble Oregon. There are some sketchy Q2 losses, one in particular a 37 point loss to San Francisco. Draw bottom feeder Oregon State in Pac 12 opening round. Its a must win and then the Sun Devils are just going to have to find a way to beat USC for the first time in 3 tries. Get that and they may be close.
(54) MICHIGAN 17-14: Wolverines suffered an excruciating defeat at Indiana that would have put them in the field. Now the same old problem with the bulky loss total and just 3 games above 500 returns. Michigan got in the field last year with a 17-14 record. Might not be as easy to do it this year. Just 3-11 vs Q1 and 8-13 vs Q1/2. It is a bit rough. Yet deeper in, just cannot ignore that they now have 8 wins vs schools in the field. The Wolverines have big road wins at Northwestern and Rutgers. Then 6 others: Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Pittsburgh. In all probability the one game keeping them out right now is the Quad 4 loss at home to Central Michigan. Michigan draws fading Rutgers in the Big 10 tourney 2nd round. It is likely a lose and out game. The question for Michigan is whether they have to beat Purdue in the next round or is one win enough. 18-15 with a sos of 21 could be enough but its really going to depend on what else is going on.
(49) NORTH CAROLINA 19-12: Hard to believe the preseason #1 still has not been able to find its way into the 2023 tourney field. Tough loss at Duke in the closing seconds but close is not good enough when you only have one quad 1 win. Now 1-9 in Q1, the Tar Heels are up against it. That sole win is against Virginia. Have a hard time looking at that 7-12 mark in Q1/2. They absolutely need to beat Virginia in the ACC quarters and one wonders will that be enough. It might be though. They still have some good things going for them. The SOS is working for them at 46/19. Scheduled very strong out of conference, they just couldn't win many. A the fringes they have 3 solid wins over North Carolina State, Charleston and Michigan. There are no bad losses so its a clean resume. Obvious they have a name and no the committee is not suppose to consider names and history but if its close....
(53) CHARLESTON 28-3: Cougars are doing what they do to hang around. Now in the CAA semis, their fate will be determined by tomorrow night. Can they enact revenge on top seeded Hofstra and claim the AQ from the Colonial making their position on the bubble line moot. What if Charleston loses in the final and finishes at 29-4. Will that overall mark be enough for the NCAA committee to throw them a bone. They lost their only Quad 1 game at North Carolina but went 3-0 in Q2 highlighted by wins over Virginia Tech. Should losses to Hofstra and Drexel really keep them out. 17 wins come from Q4 and the sos of 340/301 is butt ugly but I bet you college basketball fans would prefer them in the first four over a bloated 14 loss school from the Big 10.
(47) OREGON 18-13: Ducks seem to be the stealth bubble right now. Its an unsightly 2-8 in Q1 games but one of those was a home win over Arizona. The other was bubble ASU who they split with. 6-2 in Q2 includes wins over USC and bubble Nevada makes for 8-12 in Q1/2. This profile is actually very close to the ASU resume but Oregon has better sos stuff at 36/31. The Utah Valley loss has moved to Q2 barely and there is a Q3 loss to AQ Cal Irvine but the reality is neither of these two losses are considered bad if people are paying attention. The losses to Washington and Stanford in Q2 seem more damaging to the profile. Their only path relies with beating Cal/Washington State winner and then knocking off top dog UCLA in the semis. If that happens it moves them very close to the cut line but will a late run being overlooked?
(83) VANDERBILT 18-13: The zombie school of 2023, the Commodores keep popping back up on the list. It is too bad that they suffered that Q3 loss recently to LSU because its the only thing preventing them from winning 9 in a row and probably being in the last 2 out. There are some really good wins here. 4-9 in Q1 and 9-10 in Q1/2. 6 wins vs NCAA schools: at Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State and Pitt. Are they really far off from Mississippi State. Well the LSU gave them 2 Q3 losses adding to the Southern Miss loss which really isnt that bad of a loss. The Q4 loss was to Grambling State who still is in play as an AQ possibility from the SWAC. Any longshot hopes that Vandy rests with getting to the SEC finals meaning wins vs the likes of Georgia, Kentucky, and Texas A&M. However just look at last season when Texas A&M made a furious run through the SEC tourney only to lose in the finals. Somehow they were snubbed leading many to believe that conference tourney performance specifically big runs from beyond the last 4 out will be too late to sway the committee.
(43) OKLAHOMA STATE 17-14: Cowboys failed at getting a marquee win earlier in the week vs Baylor but did manage to keep their flickering hopes alive by knocking off Texas Tech. Reality is the bulky loss total is getting in the way. 15 losses as at large on a profile that has been given a plethora of opportunities vs tourney teams. 6-11 in Q1 but a miserable 1-10 in upper level Q1 games. Best wins were the sweep over Iowa State. The wins over TCU and WVU give them 4 wins vs tourney teams but is that really deserving. Only 9-13 in Q1/2. Best OOC win was just Sam Houston State and there is a Q3 loss to Southern Illinois. The overall sos of 8 is a big strength but non conference sos of 190 not going to aid them here. They look a couple notches behind WVU who is all but locked in. OSU draws Oklahoma in Big 12 first round and then would be paired up with Texas. If they can get both we can reassess and see if that is enough or would they need to also beat a Baylor type in the next round.
(61) CLEMSON 21-9: The Jekyll and Hyde of the bubble. Tigers failed to notch a meaningful win at Virginia but are stilling hanging around due to their 4-3 Q1 and 7-5 Q1/2. Wins over Duke, Pitt, and NC 2x. The win over Penn State now is 5 wins vs the field. Good those numbers are above 500 but those are numbers you would see from mid major bubble. Playing just 12 games total in Q1/2 speaks to some schedule strength issues and the unbalanced schedule in a weak ACC that was friendly to the Tigers. SOS is a bad 101 overall but a putrid 336 OOC. To add further insult to injury are 2 Q3 and 2 Q4 losses: South Carolina, Florida State, Loyola and Louisville...bad bad bad bad. Inexplicably they finished third in the ACC and will possibly draw NC State in the quarters. What if they win there and beat Virginia. Can a case be made? Remember last year a similar profile Va Tech won the ACC tourney but was not going to get in if they lost in the finals.
(50) NEW MEXICO 20-10: The committee values upper level Q1 road wins and that is what is keeping the Lobos on the board at least. Wins at St Mary's and San Diego State are glorious. There are also wins over Boise State and nice little nuggets over Oral Roberts and Iona. That makes 5 wins vs the field. 3-4 in Q1 while 6-6 in Q1/2. The issue isnt the wins, If it were just wins and quality road wins, the Lobos would be in. The bad just sinks their chances. 3 Q3 losses and 1 Q4. Cut back on that Q4 and maybe but just cannot have this many bad losses. Losses to Wyoming, Fresno, Air Force, and UNLV should not get you a NCAA at large invitation. I know conference record is not considered but no 8-10 school from Mountain West will dance as an at large.
LAST 4 BYES: RUTGERS, MISSISSIPPI STATE, PITTSBURGH, PROVIDENCE
LAST 4 IN: UTAH STATE, PENN STATE, WISCONSIN, NORTH CAROLINA STATE
FIRST 4 OUT: NEVADA, ARIZONA STATE, MICHIGAN, NORTH CAROLINA
NEXT 6 OUT: CHARLESTON, OREGON, VANDERBILT, OKLAHOMA STATE, CLEMSON, NEW MEXICO
There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference). * denotes projected AQ. There are 36 at large bids. I am projecting 24 at large locks leaving 12 available spots in the field. I am projecting 22 schools competing for those 12 open spots. Everyone up to the 2nd 9 seed is locked in right now.
ONE SEEDS
- KANSAS*
- ALABAMA*
- HOUSTON*
- PURDUE*
TWO SEEDS
- UCLA*
- TEXAS
- BAYLOR
- ARIZONA
THREE SEEDS
- MARQUETTE*
- GONZAGA*
- KANSAS STATE
- TENNESSEE
FOUR SEEDS
- CONNECTICUT
- XAVIER
- INDIANA
- VIRGINIA
FIVE SEEDS
- MIAMI*
- SAN DIEGO STATE*
- SAINT MARY'S
- IOWA STATE
SIX SEEDS
- TCU
- DUKE
- NORTHWESTERN
- CREIGHTON
7 SEEDS
- KENTUCKY
- MICHIGAN STATE
- TEXAS A & M
- IOWA
8 SEEDS
- MISSOURI
- ILLINOIS
- ARKANSAS
- (15) FLORIDA ATLANTIC* 26-3: Owls are the projected AQ from Conference USA and will be dancing no matter what happens in the CUSA tourney. Only question is whether they can hold the 8/9 seed line
9 SEEDS
- MARYLAND
- BOISE STATE
- (34) MEMPHIS 23-8: The committee was likely watching their down to the wire loss to Houston. Came up short in both tries but no shame in that. AAC will have a one seed and Memphis is clearly the 2nd best in a conference that is a bit down overall this year. Still the wins over Texas A&M and Auburn highlight the resume plus a close lose at Alabama. The non conference sos of 35 is just what the committee likes to see from a conference like this. The 8-3 mark in Q2 brings them to 10-7 in Q1/2. Locked and loaded.
- ( 32) AUBURN 20-11: Tigers got a much needed high level Q1 win over Tennessee after dropping a heartbreaker at Auburn. That puts them over the top despite the wobbly Q1 mark of 3-9. Overall 9-10 vs Q1/2. There is a non conference win over Northwestern and sec wins vs Arkansas, Missouri, and Mississippi State. Those wins combined with the sos stuff of 20/82 is enough to propel them above the bubble. Lock em up.
10 SEEDS
- (45) USC 22-9: Trojans picked up a big win over Arizona State that not only gave them some separation from the Sun Devils but some breathing room from the bubbles on the 11 line. Not quite ready to lock them in fully because its not an overwhelming profile. USC is feasting off of the win over UCLA. They need to because their only other win vs a NCAA projected school is the non conference win over Auburn. Just 3-6 in Q1, they scored much better in Q2 bringing the Q1/2 mark to 10-7. The only loss in there was to bubble Wisconsin. 7-1 in Q3 as well as that Q1/2/3 mark of 17-8 is solid. True the Q3 loss at Oregon State and the Q4 to Florida Gulf Coast are bad but almost every school not locked in has these but not many have a one as good as UCLA. They will draw Arizona State/Oregon State winner in Pac 12 quarters. Just like to see them win that one out to solidify their seeding yet not sure a loss would put them worse than a 11 seed not playing in Dayton.
- (24) WEST VIRGINIA 18-13: Mountaineers had a fruitful week by gathering 2 Q1 wins at Iowa State and most importantly Kansas State on Saturday. Q1 mark is up to 6-12 and yeah that is a big improvement from 4-12. 5 wins in Q2 puts them at 11-13 in Q1/2 and yeah the Q1/2/3 mark is still below 500 at 12-13 and will likely still be below 500 after the Big 12 tourney, that is going to be overlooked. While their might be some consternation over the 1-10 mark in high Q1, it is hard to fault WVU playing in the brutal Big 12 finishing with a sos of 5 and annexing 6 wins over schools in the field: Iowa State 2x, KSU, TCU, Auburn, and Pitt. Face a program in turmoil Texas Tech in first round. Might want to win that one to avoid any possibility of Dayton which is likely the floor right now for their NCAA outlook. Could play their way into the 8/9 line.
- (51) PROVIDENCE 21-10: Friars metrics took a plunge after an embarrassing home loss to Seton Hall. Throwing up some really sketchy numbers right now, just 3-7 in Q1 and a woeful 6-9 in Q1/2. On paper that would be an issue most years. Tend to lean against Providence actually being a bubble team for one reason. So while they only have 3 wins vs schools projected in the field, those are 3 high level Q1 wins. Not going to find that on the bubble. Yes they were all at home but wins over Marquette, Connecticut, and Creighton should be enough to save this resume. Just one Q3 loss to St Louis so that helps but the Friars played a terrible non conference sos of 292. Their best ooc win was Rider and the fact that 10 of their 21 wins are in Q4 is disturbing for a major conference program. They managed a 5 seed in the Big East tourney and that is their saving grace. They avoid taking a bad loss to a sickly Big East school in the tourney as they draw Connecticut. Don't think they are safe from being sent to play in Dayton.
- (58) PITTSBURGH 21-10: Panthers did not have a good week. No shame in losing to ACC AQ Miami but that was a chance for them to win the ACC regular season. The real problem was the ugly Q3 loss at Notre Dame which along with the Q4 loss home loss to Florida State keeps them from being locked in the field. 4-4 in Q1, 7-8 Q1/2 is okay but not great. 4 big wins here vs tourney teams: Virginia, Miami, at NC State but its likely the win at Northwestern that is keeping them on the right side of mendoza line. A mixed bag vs bubble teams. The aforementioned win vs NC State but blowout losses to WVU and Michigan. A sweep of UNC is a positive. Then there are one point losses to Clemson and Vanderbilt. The road mark of 7-5 is very solid here but having a hard time looking at 10 of their wins are coming from Quad 4 alone. They ended up the 5 seed in ACC tourney and that is the danger as they match up with Florida State/Georgia Tech. Panthers can potentially fall out of the field if they take a bad loss there. Duke up next, but that might be more about avoiding Dayton than actually falling out of the field.
ELEVEN SEEDS
- (46) MISSISSIPPI STATE 20-11: Tigers missed a chance to put themselves above the fray when they lost at bubble Vanderbilt. There is still alot of good here and mainly it resides in their non conference performance showing wins over Marquette and TCU. In league play there are wins over Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Missouri. Overall the Q1 mark of 4-7 and 7-10 for Q1/2 is middling. There is only one bad loss at Georgia. Its really not a bad profile. They draw Florida in the SEC tourney. A win should be enough to keep them safe and they wouldn't be expected to beat Alabama in quarters. A loss and Dayton becomes a real possibility Too many other bubble schools out there with potential to score realistic bigger wins so not totally safe yet.
- (40) RUTGERS 18-13: Here is the deal. Despite losing 6 of 8, Rutgers is still in the field as of today. As Rutgers fans we have overanalyzed the poor play for the past month. The declarations that Rutgers is out of the field are not based in reality. That is just piling on without doing your homework and looking at the bubble landscape. The trend is certainly not in the right direction as RU continues to slip down the seed line sitting on the cusp of or possibly in Dayton. There is always talk about the eye test and how you finish. Neither is a criteria. The eye test is real though. Every member will have access to game tapes. Without Mag, obviously RU is not the same team that build up its resume. On resume alone TODAY, there are good things here. RU has two high tier Q1 wins. It has a road win at a projected #1 seed. A rarity that only Arizona State has among bubble schools. RU is currently 5-6 in Q1 and 9-10 in Q1/2. RU currently has 8 wins in my projected field: at Purdue, at Northwestern, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, at Wisconsin, and 2x Penn State. The emergence of PSU into the field is an interesting one. More competition for Rutgers on the bubble but making the Scarlet Knights sweep over them look more impressive. RU is 3-1 vs the 3 Big 10 bubbles and now get a shot at Michigan in the Big 10 tourney 8-9 game. A win there and its hard to argue against RU not getting a bid. While I do not think its win and in, to me a win over Michigan puts RU in a very good spot to make the tournament. However RU is on the bubble because of some warts. The non conference sos of 309 is embarrassing. RU does not have a quality non conference win and no the win at home over a middling Wake does not move the needle. The biggest issue with Rutgers are the bad losses. Yes the Nebraska and Seton Hall losses are not looking so bad. That is helping. SHU is straddling Q2/3 right now. Keeping them in Q2 is imperative because 4 Q3 losses on paper looks unruly. The Temple loss wasnt a good one whether or not players were injured. It all comes back to the Minnesota debacle. Its Q3 but its more like a Q4. That was a really really really bad one. RU would be locked in as a 9 or 10 without that blemish. Going forward it is easy to pile on Rutgers now and I do see the snarky comments by bracketologists directed toward Rutgers online. Yet there are so many variables in play. Having 4 Big 10 bubble schools with bulky loss totals hanging around. The presence of North Carolina lurking one big win away from vaulting into the field. The 2 Mountain West bubbles that look inseperable right now. A North Carolina State team that put up a gaudy win total but lacking flesh on the resume. Then the potential for bid stealers sending Florida Atlantic, Charleston, Oral Roberts into the at large pool is a real worry. But for today, right here, right now, RU lands a whisker out of Dayton.
- (41) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 22-9: Wolfpack have continued to slip in the seed line as they just have not been able to add to their resume. Only 2-6 vs Q1 and 7-9 in Q1/2, a close inspection shows just 2 wins vs school in the field: Duke and Miami both at home. Now those are two very good wins but are they enough to carry them into the tournament. It was able to carry Notre Dame last year in a somewhat similar profile. There is a split with bubble North Carolina. A win over Vandy but a blowout loss to Clemson. 10 of their wins coming from Quad 4 is problematic and that awful 245 OOC SOS does not help. Yet the Pack have avoided any bad losses and that cleanness might be enough to get them through. There is a potential landmine in their opening round ACC tourney game vs Va Tech/Notre Dame. A loss there and all bets off. While I would like to think a win locks them in, I will note bubble Clemson is the next opponent. Have seen profiles like these left out.
- (78) WISCONSIN 17-13: Overall NET rating continues to lag making them most comparable to Rutgers from last year. Although differences are Wisky has no bad losses but on the other hand their wins are not quite as good as RU's were last year. Badgers pulled out a tight one that they had to get at Minnesota to keep themselves in the field. Really hard to argue with the 6-7 mark in Q1 and a whopping 11 -10 in Q1/2. The marquee win was neutral site over Marquette. Another ooc win over USC as the Badgers sos non conference of 71 tops around the bubble. League wins over Iowa 2x, Penn State 2x, and Maryland give them a total of 7 wins vs teams projected in the field. There is just one Q3 blemish vs Wake Forest and that might be important given the overall record is just 4 game over 500. Should Wisconsin take a loss to Ohio State in the opening round of the Big 10 tourney it would drop them down to 12-14 vs Q1/2/3 and a sketchy 17-14 overall. There are not that many schools in history that have made the tournament just 3 games over 500 and this is not a historical type profile. A win over Ohio State looks mandatory but whether they would need another win vs Indiana depends on the bubble performance around them.
- (56) PENN STATE 19-12: Playing for their tourney lives, the Lions hit a shot at the buzzer to knock off Maryland completing a wonderful week for them which saw them add 2 Q1 wins to the resume. That is good enough to vault them into the field for now. Their metrics now manageable at 5-6/9-11 in Q1 and Q1/2. 6 wins vs teams in the field: 2x Illinois, Maryland, at NW, Indiana, Iowa. The Nittiny Lions have quietly and calmly built themselves a tourney resume. How safe are they? Well not very. The Big 10 bubble situation is an issue. PSU did go 0-4 vs Rutgers and Wisconsin and while they are not paired individually its likely that they are going to be paired in a similar grouping. Rutgers and Wisconsin each have a high end win that eclipses Penn State's best. Plus another Big 10 bubble Michigan who PSU split with is floating around. The non conference schedule is a negative but the positive is they still haven't take a bad loss even with Wisconsin counting as Q3. Will face Illinois for a third time in their opening Big 10 tourney game. Win and they are in and likely out of Dayton. Lose and they are going to be staining their panties in State College as they await their name to be called on Selection Sunday.
- (21) UTAH STATE 23-7: Aggies are the most controversial of bubble schools right now. Their win over Boise was just their first in Q1 (1-4). They do have 8 Q2 wins putting the Q1/2 mark at 9-5. Yet only in are wins over AQ Oral Roberts and MWC compatriot Nevada..and the latter is right on the NCAA cut line. Is that really enough to put a team into the tourney? I get the NET is a stunning 21 now and that is largely because they feasted on Q3 schools going 12-0. These schools mainly a bunch of second tiers from the MWC and WCC. Might be more willing to be sympathetic to USU if they did not have 2 Q4 losses to Weber State and SMU. They will test whether a school can get in based on NET metrics and racking up a 21-5 mark in Q1/2/3. Aggies will draw the winner of Wyoming/New Mexico in the MWC quarters which I think they have to win to stay in the field. Up next would be a possible meeting with Boise State that could get them out of Dayton. With Nevada hanging around as well, things are in flux here.
TWELVE SEEDS
- (42) ORAL ROBERTS* 24-4: Golden Eagles are the projected AQ from the Summit League. Now in the semis, they will be considered an at large if they do not win the tourney. Numbers are not impressive in the Quads because they haven't beaten any tourney teams. 0-4 in Q1 and 1-0 in Q2..that win was Liberty. The 4 losses though showed tough schedule: Houston, St Mary's, Utah State, and New Mexico. Non conference sos of 6. If the committee wanted to take a flyer it would not be an outrageous choice. Still 18 wins in Q4 could be a tough pill for them to swallow.
- VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH*
- DRAKE*
- SAM HOUSTON STATE*
THIRTEEN SEEDS
- IONA*
- HOFSTRA*
- LOUISIANA*
- TOLEDO*
FOURTEEN SEEDS
- YALE*
- FURMAN*
- UC IRVINE*
- COLGATE*
FIFTEEN SEEDS
- VERMONT*
- MONTANA STATE*
- KENNESAW STATE*
- UNC ASHEVILLE*
SIXTEEN SEEDS
- YOUNGSTOWN STATE*
- TEXAS A & M CORPUS CHRISTI*
- SOUTHESAST MISSOURI STATE*
- HOWARD*
- FDU*
- ALCORN STATE*
BUBBLE OUT
(36) NEVADA 21-9: Wolfpack had a rough week adding 2 Quad 3 losses to their profile and that combined with Utah State's metric surge has bounced the Pack all the way out of the field. The 4-5 mark in Q1 and 8-7 vs Q1/2 on paper seem pretty good. Yet only 3 wins vs teams in the field: San Diego State, Boise State and now Utah State and they were all at home. Further in is a win vs Sam Houston who may or may not be the AQ from WAC. Note they got swept by UNLV and lost to Loyola Marymount as well. It is a rather bland resume which would be okay if not for the losses last week. To assure themselves of a bid, Nevada needs to play their way back into the field and that might mean knocking off San Diego State in the MWC semis. First they will have to deal with a surging San Jose State. A loss and I cannot see how they get back in.
(65) ARIZONA STATE 20-11: Sun Devils could not follow up their feather in their cap win over Arizona with wins over UCLA or USC so there is still work to do to state their case. Still a tough propostion because its resting on just the Arizona and Creighton wins. Only 2 wins vs field. 3 if you count A10 projected VCU. The win vs Michigan helps here but they really may be regretting that Quad 4 loss to Texas Southern. 4-5 in Q1 and 8-10 Q1/2 but do not get fooled by Q1 wins over Colorado and Q2 wins over Stanford mattering much. Split with bubble Oregon. There are some sketchy Q2 losses, one in particular a 37 point loss to San Francisco. Draw bottom feeder Oregon State in Pac 12 opening round. Its a must win and then the Sun Devils are just going to have to find a way to beat USC for the first time in 3 tries. Get that and they may be close.
(54) MICHIGAN 17-14: Wolverines suffered an excruciating defeat at Indiana that would have put them in the field. Now the same old problem with the bulky loss total and just 3 games above 500 returns. Michigan got in the field last year with a 17-14 record. Might not be as easy to do it this year. Just 3-11 vs Q1 and 8-13 vs Q1/2. It is a bit rough. Yet deeper in, just cannot ignore that they now have 8 wins vs schools in the field. The Wolverines have big road wins at Northwestern and Rutgers. Then 6 others: Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Pittsburgh. In all probability the one game keeping them out right now is the Quad 4 loss at home to Central Michigan. Michigan draws fading Rutgers in the Big 10 tourney 2nd round. It is likely a lose and out game. The question for Michigan is whether they have to beat Purdue in the next round or is one win enough. 18-15 with a sos of 21 could be enough but its really going to depend on what else is going on.
(49) NORTH CAROLINA 19-12: Hard to believe the preseason #1 still has not been able to find its way into the 2023 tourney field. Tough loss at Duke in the closing seconds but close is not good enough when you only have one quad 1 win. Now 1-9 in Q1, the Tar Heels are up against it. That sole win is against Virginia. Have a hard time looking at that 7-12 mark in Q1/2. They absolutely need to beat Virginia in the ACC quarters and one wonders will that be enough. It might be though. They still have some good things going for them. The SOS is working for them at 46/19. Scheduled very strong out of conference, they just couldn't win many. A the fringes they have 3 solid wins over North Carolina State, Charleston and Michigan. There are no bad losses so its a clean resume. Obvious they have a name and no the committee is not suppose to consider names and history but if its close....
(53) CHARLESTON 28-3: Cougars are doing what they do to hang around. Now in the CAA semis, their fate will be determined by tomorrow night. Can they enact revenge on top seeded Hofstra and claim the AQ from the Colonial making their position on the bubble line moot. What if Charleston loses in the final and finishes at 29-4. Will that overall mark be enough for the NCAA committee to throw them a bone. They lost their only Quad 1 game at North Carolina but went 3-0 in Q2 highlighted by wins over Virginia Tech. Should losses to Hofstra and Drexel really keep them out. 17 wins come from Q4 and the sos of 340/301 is butt ugly but I bet you college basketball fans would prefer them in the first four over a bloated 14 loss school from the Big 10.
(47) OREGON 18-13: Ducks seem to be the stealth bubble right now. Its an unsightly 2-8 in Q1 games but one of those was a home win over Arizona. The other was bubble ASU who they split with. 6-2 in Q2 includes wins over USC and bubble Nevada makes for 8-12 in Q1/2. This profile is actually very close to the ASU resume but Oregon has better sos stuff at 36/31. The Utah Valley loss has moved to Q2 barely and there is a Q3 loss to AQ Cal Irvine but the reality is neither of these two losses are considered bad if people are paying attention. The losses to Washington and Stanford in Q2 seem more damaging to the profile. Their only path relies with beating Cal/Washington State winner and then knocking off top dog UCLA in the semis. If that happens it moves them very close to the cut line but will a late run being overlooked?
(83) VANDERBILT 18-13: The zombie school of 2023, the Commodores keep popping back up on the list. It is too bad that they suffered that Q3 loss recently to LSU because its the only thing preventing them from winning 9 in a row and probably being in the last 2 out. There are some really good wins here. 4-9 in Q1 and 9-10 in Q1/2. 6 wins vs NCAA schools: at Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State and Pitt. Are they really far off from Mississippi State. Well the LSU gave them 2 Q3 losses adding to the Southern Miss loss which really isnt that bad of a loss. The Q4 loss was to Grambling State who still is in play as an AQ possibility from the SWAC. Any longshot hopes that Vandy rests with getting to the SEC finals meaning wins vs the likes of Georgia, Kentucky, and Texas A&M. However just look at last season when Texas A&M made a furious run through the SEC tourney only to lose in the finals. Somehow they were snubbed leading many to believe that conference tourney performance specifically big runs from beyond the last 4 out will be too late to sway the committee.
(43) OKLAHOMA STATE 17-14: Cowboys failed at getting a marquee win earlier in the week vs Baylor but did manage to keep their flickering hopes alive by knocking off Texas Tech. Reality is the bulky loss total is getting in the way. 15 losses as at large on a profile that has been given a plethora of opportunities vs tourney teams. 6-11 in Q1 but a miserable 1-10 in upper level Q1 games. Best wins were the sweep over Iowa State. The wins over TCU and WVU give them 4 wins vs tourney teams but is that really deserving. Only 9-13 in Q1/2. Best OOC win was just Sam Houston State and there is a Q3 loss to Southern Illinois. The overall sos of 8 is a big strength but non conference sos of 190 not going to aid them here. They look a couple notches behind WVU who is all but locked in. OSU draws Oklahoma in Big 12 first round and then would be paired up with Texas. If they can get both we can reassess and see if that is enough or would they need to also beat a Baylor type in the next round.
(61) CLEMSON 21-9: The Jekyll and Hyde of the bubble. Tigers failed to notch a meaningful win at Virginia but are stilling hanging around due to their 4-3 Q1 and 7-5 Q1/2. Wins over Duke, Pitt, and NC 2x. The win over Penn State now is 5 wins vs the field. Good those numbers are above 500 but those are numbers you would see from mid major bubble. Playing just 12 games total in Q1/2 speaks to some schedule strength issues and the unbalanced schedule in a weak ACC that was friendly to the Tigers. SOS is a bad 101 overall but a putrid 336 OOC. To add further insult to injury are 2 Q3 and 2 Q4 losses: South Carolina, Florida State, Loyola and Louisville...bad bad bad bad. Inexplicably they finished third in the ACC and will possibly draw NC State in the quarters. What if they win there and beat Virginia. Can a case be made? Remember last year a similar profile Va Tech won the ACC tourney but was not going to get in if they lost in the finals.
(50) NEW MEXICO 20-10: The committee values upper level Q1 road wins and that is what is keeping the Lobos on the board at least. Wins at St Mary's and San Diego State are glorious. There are also wins over Boise State and nice little nuggets over Oral Roberts and Iona. That makes 5 wins vs the field. 3-4 in Q1 while 6-6 in Q1/2. The issue isnt the wins, If it were just wins and quality road wins, the Lobos would be in. The bad just sinks their chances. 3 Q3 losses and 1 Q4. Cut back on that Q4 and maybe but just cannot have this many bad losses. Losses to Wyoming, Fresno, Air Force, and UNLV should not get you a NCAA at large invitation. I know conference record is not considered but no 8-10 school from Mountain West will dance as an at large.
LAST 4 BYES: RUTGERS, MISSISSIPPI STATE, PITTSBURGH, PROVIDENCE
LAST 4 IN: UTAH STATE, PENN STATE, WISCONSIN, NORTH CAROLINA STATE
FIRST 4 OUT: NEVADA, ARIZONA STATE, MICHIGAN, NORTH CAROLINA
NEXT 6 OUT: CHARLESTON, OREGON, VANDERBILT, OKLAHOMA STATE, CLEMSON, NEW MEXICO
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