BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS UPDATE FOR 3/6 PAGE 23

bac2therac

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if they lose that game, its going to be close, if they dont beat Miami they likely are headed to the first 4....very similar profile to NC State a few years back. That SOS non conference of 338 is really going to be talked about behind closed doors. Just 2-5 vs schools in the field. Each time I scrub they fall further back and behind Notre Dame and Miami who have better wins. Having only 1 Q3 loss helps. With 5 ACC bubbles if you include UVA and Va Tech and assuming UNC is already locked in. alot to sort of in the ACC tourney and big impact on seeding with respect to Rutgers.
 

G- RUnit

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Okay here’s another question I haven’t seen yet. If we are a 10 or 11 seed, does that hurt our likelihood of Pittsburgh or Buffalo?
I heard Coach K has or will “request” Chicago instead of Philly for regionals.
 

fatsam98

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Okay here’s another question I haven’t seen yet. If we are a 10 or 11 seed, does that hurt our likelihood of Pittsburgh or Buffalo?
I heard Coach K has or will “request” Chicago instead of Philly for regionals.
Chicago isn't one of the first/second round venues.

Geography for rounds 1/2 will depend mostly on the highest ranked team in your "quad" for 1st/2nd round.

For example, #1 Gonzaga will be in Portland. Therefore the 8/9 game that Gonzaga faces the winner of will also be in Portland.

So for a 10/11/12 seed to predict our venue is very hard.

Edit: also, to be clear, the first/second round venues really have nothing to do with the regions. You can have a 1st round game in Buffalo and be in the West region.
 
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PSAL_Hoops

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BAC - What am I missing on SF? I’m not saying they should be out, but Lunardi and company have them slotted in as a 9. Take down Gonzaga today, then maybe, but to me if they lose that game they seem destined for the play in game.

Who cares if the computer is spitting out NET 24? Their only win over a team likely to get an at large bid was home vs. Davidson - not even Q1. It’s not like they had no opportunities. 2 losses to Gonzaga. 2 losses to St Marys. Lost at home to Loyola. So 6 opportunities against tourney teams. 4 of them at home. They won only one of them.
 

MiamiWolv

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Covid year..different circumstances

Same scenario though.

Michigan isn't the magic four games above .500 because it had to cancel its easiest game of the season (at home vs Fort wayne) due to COVID outbreak by Fort Wayne. I just a have hard time believing overall record matters that much.

Lastly, the number of losses has become less important in recent years since the NET came out. In 2017, Vanderbilt lost 15 games and made it easily as a 9 seed. In 2019, Florida went 19-15 and avoided Dayton as a 10 seed. I mentioned Maryland at 16-13 as a 10 seed. I think these are the likely comparisons for this UM team.
 

MiamiWolv

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if they lose that game, its going to be close, if they dont beat Miami they likely are headed to the first 4....very similar profile to NC State a few years back. That SOS non conference of 338 is really going to be talked about behind closed doors. Just 2-5 vs schools in the field. Each time I scrub they fall further back and behind Notre Dame and Miami who have better wins. Having only 1 Q3 loss helps. With 5 ACC bubbles if you include UVA and Va Tech and assuming UNC is already locked in. alot to sort of in the ACC tourney and big impact on seeding with respect to Rutgers.
100% agree.

ND, Miami and Wake are all similar. One of them will be in Dayton, and I would advise all of them not take a bad loss. That's the problem with the ACC tournament -- there are opportunities for bad losses.

Compare that with the B1G where the teams just above the cut line are locked into nothing but Q1 games from here on out. Sure, it could cost a team 1-2 spots on the S curve, but no one is dropping 5 spots by losing a Q1.

As for UVA/VT, they aren't close. If they get in, there should really be an investigation into whether we're now awarding bids to conferences and not schools because the idea the ACC would get 6-7 teams this year is lunacy.
 

cicero grimes

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100% agree.

ND, Miami and Wake are all similar. One of them will be in Dayton, and I would advise all of them not take a bad loss. That's the problem with the ACC tournament -- there are opportunities for bad losses.

Compare that with the B1G where the teams just above the cut line are locked into nothing but Q1 games from here on out. Sure, it could cost a team 1-2 spots on the S curve, but no one is dropping 5 spots by losing a Q1.

As for UVA/VT, they aren't close. If they get in, there should really be an investigation into whether we're now awarding bids to conferences and not schools because the idea the ACC would get 6-7 teams this year is lunacy.
I have always suspected bids are awarded to conferences. ACC in my opinion is a 3-4 bid league this year. If they get 6-7 something is definitely rotten with the selection process.
 

Scarlet Blind

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BAC - What am I missing on SF? I’m not saying they should be out, but Lunardi and company have them slotted in as a 9. Take down Gonzaga today, then maybe, but to me if they lose that game they seem destined for the play in game.

Who cares if the computer is spitting out NET 24? Their only win over a team likely to get an at large bid was home vs. Davidson - not even Q1. It’s not like they had no opportunities. 2 losses to Gonzaga. 2 losses to St Marys. Lost at home to Loyola. So 6 opportunities against tourney teams. 4 of them at home. They won only one of them.
SF 3-5 6-2, 9-8
RU 6-5, 3-4,_9-9,
We are slightly ahead there with one more Q1/2 played but
SF 9-8, Q3 5-0, 14-8, 22
RU 9-9, Q3 4-2, 13-11, 24
1 more win, 3 less losses, ahead of us in selection.
 

bac2therac

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100% agree.

ND, Miami and Wake are all similar. One of them will be in Dayton, and I would advise all of them not take a bad loss. That's the problem with the ACC tournament -- there are opportunities for bad losses.

Compare that with the B1G where the teams just above the cut line are locked into nothing but Q1 games from here on out. Sure, it could cost a team 1-2 spots on the S curve, but no one is dropping 5 spots by losing a Q1.

As for UVA/VT, they aren't close. If they get in, there should really be an investigation into whether we're now awarding bids to conferences and not schools because the idea the ACC would get 6-7 teams this year is lunacy.


Both UVA or Va Tech can get to the finals just like Cuse last year who didnt deserve it and they didnt get to the finals. UVa has wins over Duke and Providence so they have that going for them but tough to overcome 5 bad losses. Still we shall see

I have Indiana as last in for now but a loss to Michigan knocks them out. Honestly I think its mainly 3 schools plus a major somewhere making a run that are trying to get back in

BYU who is done and can only back in, SMU, VCU, and take your pick Fla/Va/VaTech/Okie/TexA&M
 

bac2therac

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Same scenario though.

Michigan isn't the magic four games above .500 because it had to cancel its easiest game of the season (at home vs Fort wayne) due to COVID outbreak by Fort Wayne. I just a have hard time believing overall record matters that much.

Lastly, the number of losses has become less important in recent years since the NET came out. In 2017, Vanderbilt lost 15 games and made it easily as a 9 seed. In 2019, Florida went 19-15 and avoided Dayton as a 10 seed. I mentioned Maryland at 16-13 as a 10 seed. I think these are the likely comparisons for this UM team.


17-14 is an issue, you cant sit here right now and say you are confident..you will be sweating as you should. I have Michigan as my last 10 right now but a first round loss...and remember if Michigan losses and Indiana now has become a viable NCAA team. Indy beats Illinois and Wolverines better worry.
 

bac2therac

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BAC - What am I missing on SF? I’m not saying they should be out, but Lunardi and company have them slotted in as a 9. Take down Gonzaga today, then maybe, but to me if they lose that game they seem destined for the play in game.

Who cares if the computer is spitting out NET 24? Their only win over a team likely to get an at large bid was home vs. Davidson - not even Q1. It’s not like they had no opportunities. 2 losses to Gonzaga. 2 losses to St Marys. Lost at home to Loyola. So 6 opportunities against tourney teams. 4 of them at home. They won only one of them.


I was never a fan of San Fran but after they clearly dominated BYU in a bubble matchup they are in and they looked the part. Yes not that impressive but not much wrong that one bad loss. BYU is last out on many boards so its still 2 quality wins there. I moved them to a 9 now but they could easily fall to a 10 or 11. Remember their season is likely over tonight, the schools they are ahead of all have Q1/2 opportunities to come and can vault over the Dons.
 
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FAT MOON

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BAC, you might've posted this already but where do you have RU as of today? Tough to project this based on tons of other results but also curious where you see them with a win in the quarters vs. a loss in the quarters (assuming it's vs. Iowa).
 

Miggins

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BAC maybe this was answered already, but in terms of the NCAA bid for RU, is chance we face Nebraska (and lose) the biggest thing that could derail us? Seems near consensus is a loss to Iowa would not hurt us but this would be different.
 

PSAL_Hoops

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SF 3-5 6-2, 9-8
RU 6-5, 3-4,_9-9,
We are slightly ahead there with one more Q1/2 played but
SF 9-8, Q3 5-0, 14-8, 22
RU 9-9, Q3 4-2, 13-11, 24
1 more win, 3 less losses, ahead of us in selection.
You can’t just do that dude. We’re not just slightly ahead on wins. It’s not even close. Not all Q1 wins are equal. Their 3 Q1 wins are @Towson, @BYU and @Santa Clara. Their Q2 wins are all garbage too except the one from 2 days ago BYU (neutral) and Davison (home).

As for having less total losses, half their conference has a NET outside the top 175 and they didn’t exactly play murders row OOC. The worst team in our conference has a NET of 148 (and we swept that team).
 

kcg88

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BAC maybe this was answered already, but in terms of the NCAA bid for RU, is chance we face Nebraska (and lose) the biggest thing that could derail us? Seems near consensus is a loss to Iowa would not hurt us but this would be different.
That and bid thieves. A loss to Nebraska alone maybe doesn't knock us out, but if SMU wins the AAC tournament and Oregon wins the P12 and Florida wins the SEC...
 
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PSAL_Hoops

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I was never a fan of San Fran but after they clearly dominated BYU in a bubble matchup they are in and they looked the part. Yes not that impressive but not much wrong that one bad loss. BYU is last out on many boards so its still 2 quality wins there. I moved them to a 9 now but they could easily fall to a 10 or 11. Remember their season is likely over tonight, the schools they are ahead of all have Q1/2 opportunities to come and can vault over the Dons.
I guess where I’m coming from is, I see their ceiling as being the 8-9 game. That would be with claiming the auto-bid including a monster win over Gonzaga.
 

RU23

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That and bid thieves. A loss to Nebraska alone maybe doesn't knock us out, but if SMU wins the AAC tournament and Oregon wins the P12 and Florida wins the SEC...
I’m not sure SMU needs to win the AAC to get a bid, beating Memphis in the semis probably does it imo. Oregon and Florida definitely need to win their tourneys I’d think
 

PSAL_Hoops

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That and bid thieves. A loss to Nebraska alone maybe doesn't knock us out, but if SMU wins the AAC tournament and Oregon wins the P12 and Florida wins the SEC...
Are there any mid-major bid thieves left out there?
 

kcg88

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Are there any mid-major bid thieves left out there?
The A10 is still the one to watch. Right now Bracket Matrix has VCU in but not everyone has updated their bracket after their loss to Saint Louis. If Davidson wins that tournament it could be a one-bid league. Davidson themselves are safe as long as they beat the Fordham/George Mason winner, so if they lost after that it'll be a two bid league.

Elsewhere, not really. North Texas' loss to UTEP on Saturday probably takes CUSA out of the conversation, but root for UNT in the tournament just to be safe.
 

1984

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BAC, you might've posted this already but where do you have RU as of today? Tough to project this based on tons of other results but also curious where you see them with a win in the quarters vs. a loss in the quarters (assuming it's vs. Iowa).
@bac2therac well we're waiting SHARP AXE LOL .....
 
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bac2therac

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BAC, you might've posted this already but where do you have RU as of today? Tough to project this based on tons of other results but also curious where you see them with a win in the quarters vs. a loss in the quarters (assuming it's vs. Iowa).


find out in an hour

but a win vs Iowa puts RU on the 10 line IMO
 

bac2therac

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BAC maybe this was answered already, but in terms of the NCAA bid for RU, is chance we face Nebraska (and lose) the biggest thing that could derail us? Seems near consensus is a loss to Iowa would not hurt us but this would be different.


dont fret about Nebby, at the end of the day they are 13th seed that would be playing its 3rd game in 3 days while we would be playing our first
 

PSAL_Hoops

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they will not get better than an 8
Yeah. That’s what I mean. They’d only be an 8 at best if you added two more neutral wins over prospective 1 and 6 seeds. Right now they have a win over a projected AQ 11 and that’s it in the whole field. How could it be that adding two wins like that to a resume of nothing would only move you one line max?
 

G- RUnit

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Chicago isn't one of the first/second round venues.

Geography for rounds 1/2 will depend mostly on the highest ranked team in your "quad" for 1st/2nd round.

For example, #1 Gonzaga will be in Portland. Therefore the 8/9 game that Gonzaga faces the winner of will also be in Portland.

So for a 10/11/12 seed to predict our venue is very hard.

Edit: also, to be clear, the first/second round venues really have nothing to do with the regions. You can have a 1st round game in Buffalo and be in the West region.
Well aware of 2nd rounds. I thought that was interesting. When do they make that call? And if Duke losses?
I saw one bracket with RU as a 10 seed against 7 Colorado State. Do the accommodate Colorado State first? I never knew how geography factored in.
 

mjjoyce51

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Well aware of 2nd rounds. I thought that was interesting. When do they make that call? And if Duke losses?
I saw one bracket with RU as a 10 seed against 7 Colorado State. Do the accommodate Colorado State first? I never knew how geography factored in.

I could be wrong but I believe it's based on where each team stands within their seeding. So the highest seeded 10 would go to what the committee believes is the best spot geographically for that team. Lowest seeded 10 just goes to the last spot that's left.