BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS UPDATE FOR 3/6 PAGE 23

bac2therac

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What would those teams need to do to jump Rutgers?


win alot but its not like RU doesnt have games left either.

Xavier is going to be matched up with Providence in the BE quarters if it survives Butler in the first round
Wake needs to win a game in the ACC tourney vs Miami but first needs to get by the 12/13 seed

Wyoming would need to win the Mountain West though a win over CSU probably pushes the out of the first 4

SMU who I dont have in probably needs to beat Memphis in the CUSA to get to the finals and maybe more
 
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The studio guy after the BYU game randomly brought up how your wins should mean more than your losses and how crazy it would be for Rutgers to be a 12 seed.

Nice to get some respect
Well. I'd rather be a 12 than a faux-11 seed who has to play another 11 seed in the First Four in Dayton. I personally think we LOOK like a 7-10 seed team. No idea how they will seed us... and maybe the Big Ten Tourney will have something to say about it... But I think that collection of teams from 7-10 looks like us.

I think the success of Big Ten in the NCAA tourney, including Rutgers, will be based on how refs call things.
 
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fatsam98

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Tickets would be expensive! Coach K in Greenville.

But it's encouraging to see that after this deep dive process they went through we're a 10
 
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MiamiWolv

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BAC , Is Indiana v Michigan a play in game?

Indiana wishes.

Michigans resume is beyond superior to IU in every way that one game wont make up the difference. IU could get in but it won’t be at Michigans expense.

I don’t see any way Michigan misses it, though I think there is a chance it slides into the First 4 with a loss.

I think people really overestimate how much this coming week matters. Teams above the First 4 aren’t dropping out of the field (ie 6 spots) with one loss (much less a Q1 loss).

The teams right now on the wrong side of the bubble are pretty bad In terms of resume. I honestly think there is like 1-2 spots at most up for grabs right now. The teams that were at the right side of the bubble won big games this week while the teams off the bubble (Oregon, Florida) did not. The gap has grown since last week.
 
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bac2therac

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Indiana wishes.

Michigans resume is beyond superior to IU in every way that one game wont make up the difference. IU could get in but it won’t be at Michigans expense.

I don’t see any way Michigan misses it, though I think there is a chance it slides into the First 4 with a loss.

I think people really overestimate how much this coming week matters. Teams above the First 4 aren’t dropping out of the field (ie 6 spots) with one loss (much less a Q1 loss).

The teams right now on the wrong side of the bubble are pretty bad In terms of resume. I honestly think there is like 1-2 spots at most up for grabs right now. The teams that were at the right side of the bubble won big games this week while the teams off the bubble (Oregon, Florida) did not. The gap has grown since last week.

17-14 puts them in scary waters just 3 games above 500. I realize the resume is solid but....and that screams first 4
 

UofMbasketball

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Finally, I'm able to reply. I'm also a Michigan fan and love your work Bac. I've been lurking for 3 weeks now.

@MiamiWolv both those teams were 3 games above .500 last year. However, I do think Michigan will be the last team in even with a loss as long as there are no bid thieves.

@bac2therac I'm having a hard time putting SMU and its 2.1 WAB, Wyoming and its 2.3, Miami and its 2.0 WAB out. Wake has 1.6 WAB but top 40 NET. I think they're in

To me, 40 teams are locked in. The 16 teams still on the bubble are Wyoming, Miami, Xavier, ND, Michigan, Rutgers, VCU, SMU, BYU, Indiana, OU, Florida, VTech, Dayton, UVA, TAMU with 7 spots left
 
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MiamiWolv

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Finally, I'm able to reply. I'm also a Michigan fan and love your work Bac. I've been lurking for 3 weeks now.

@MiamiWolv both those teams were 3 games above .500 last year. However, I do think Michigan will be the last team in even with a loss as long as there are no bid thieves.

@bac2therac I'm having a hard time putting SMU and its 2.1 WAB, Wyoming and its 2.3, Miami and its 2.0 WAB out. Wake has 1.6 WAB but top 40 NET. I think they're in

To me, 40 teams are locked in. The 16 teams still on the bubble are Wyoming, Miami, Xavier, ND, Michigan, Rutgers, VCU, SMU, BYU, Indiana, OU, Florida, VTech, Dayton, UVA, TAMU with 7 spots left
You can’t group teams like Texas A&M, UVA, VTand Dayton with Rutgers, UM.

I think it’s like 6 teams battling for one spot and not 11 for five, though ESPN will try and make it seem as if everyone is on the bubble to draw interest. The problem is the teams off the bubble are significantly inferior than those in the field and one game won’t change that. That gap also increased this week as the teams in the field won key games while the teams out of the field did not.

Championship week is fun but it never matters as much as ESPN tells you it does.

On UM, I’m confident they’re in. They have currently a top 3 strength of schedule nationally (only 3 Q4 games all year, 20/30 against Q1 and Q2), and one thing we’ve seen over the years is the committee always rewards teams that schedule tough and dings teams that don’t. Ultimately, for this reason, it is why I can see the committee sending Rutgers to Dayton —too many good wins to keep out but Dayton would be their way of sending a message to schedule better.

What will help avoid that for RU is a lot of the last teams projected in (the ACC teams notably) played bad schedules out of conference too so they’re not alone. But one or two of those teams will end up in Dayton
 
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bac2therac

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Finally, I'm able to reply. I'm also a Michigan fan and love your work Bac. I've been lurking for 3 weeks now.

@MiamiWolv both those teams were 3 games above .500 last year. However, I do think Michigan will be the last team in even with a loss as long as there are no bid thieves.

@bac2therac I'm having a hard time putting SMU and its 2.1 WAB, Wyoming and its 2.3, Miami and its 2.0 WAB out. Wake has 1.6 WAB but top 40 NET. I think they're in

To me, 40 teams are locked in. The 16 teams still on the bubble are Wyoming, Miami, Xavier, ND, Michigan, Rutgers, VCU, SMU, BYU, Indiana, OU, Florida, VTech, Dayton, UVA, TAMU with 7 spots left

Thank you for reading

I think Wake is in trouble and headed to the first 4...wouldn't be surprised if they get left out..would match up with Miami in ACC quarters
 
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Scarlet Blind

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What helped Maryland only 2 Q4(15-13), Q1/2/3 13-13, where as MSU(I5-12) had 4 Q4, Q1/2/3 11-12, #43 team in 5 Q1 wins(5-10). The difference between 10 seed(Md) and Dayton. Rutgers should be safely in 13-11, win% and.total Q1/2/3 wins.

The team Michigan St played UCLA only had 5-9 Q1/2 but 8-0 Q3 put them at 13-9,.#44 team in with only 2 Q1s(2-6).
 
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kcg88

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No bubble action today other than rooting for Saint Mary's to take down Santa Clara (a longshot potential bid thief since they'd also have to beat Gonzaga next)

Autobids for the SoCon and the Sun Belt today. The SoCon (Furman vs. Chattanooga) is two quality teams, top 75 on KenPom. Should be a fun watch and whoever wins could be an intriguing 13-over-4 pick when the brackets come out.
 
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kcg88

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Looks like Palm just put out his most recent bracket and has us as the last one in as a 12th seed and in a first four game with SMU. Michigan just above us and Indiana the last of the first four out.
This dude has BYU (NET 55) in but Wake Forest (NET 39) out? That's, um, unique.

At Bracket Matrix Wake is in 118 brackets and BYU is in 26. And many of those 26 are from before BYU's loss to San Francisco.
 
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RW90

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Holy crap that bracket scared me as it took FOREVER for me to find Rutgers. 😳
 

Scarlet Blind

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This dude has BYU (NET 55) in but Wake Forest (NET 39) out? That's, um, unique.

At Bracket Matrix Wake is in 118 brackets and BYU is in 26. And many of those 26 are from before BYU's loss to San Francisco.
But according to the RPI which matters more to the Relic of Palmness Index, BYU is #45, 10-8 Road/Neutral, and Wake Forest is #66, 7-6 Road/Neutral. We are actually.#75 in the RPI which is weird, guess NET is T-Rank(77) and RPI(75) averaged out, #76. 😂😂😂

BYU #45, T-rank #71, 58?, NET #55
Wake #66, T-Rank #31, 48.5, NET #39
 
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