Grab a coffee or a shot of your favorite whiskey and step into the bubble.....here are the 32 projected conference autobids...
ACC: North Carolina
AMERICA EAST: Vermont
AMERICAN: SMU
ATLANTIC SUN: Florida Gulf Coast
ATLANTIC TEN: Dayton
BIG 10: Purdue
BIG 12: Kansas
BIG EAST: Villanova
BIG SKY: North Dakota
BIG SOUTH: Winthrop
BIG WEST: UC Irvine
COLONIAL: North Carolina Wilmington
CUSA: Middle Tennessee State
HORIZON: Northern Kentucky
IVY: Princeton
MAAC: Iona
MIDAMERICAN: Akron
MEAC: North Carolina Central
MISSOURI VALLEY: Wichita State
MOUNTAIN WEST: Nevada
NORTHEAST: Mount St Mary's
OHIO VALLEY: Jacksonville State
PATRIOT: Bucknell
PAC 12: Oregon
SEC: Kentucky
SOUTHERN: UNC Greensboro
SOUTHLAND: New Orleans
SUN BELT: Texas Arlington
SWAC: Texas Southern
SUMMIT: South Dakota
WAC: CSU Bakersfield
WCC: Gonzaga
24 Projected At Large Locks: Cincinnati, Louisville, Duke, Virginia, Florida State, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Butler, Creighton, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Maryland, Minnesota, Michigan,Northwestern, Arizona, UCLA, Florida, South Carolina, St Mary's
That takes care of 56 of the 68 available spots. That leaves 12 spots open. Here is the pecking order....
IN
1. (56) MARQUETTE 19-11: The big win over Villanova put the Eagles in position to gain a bid but it was the play down the stretch that has elevated them to top of the BE bubble pecking order. A sweep over Xavier and a really important win over Creighton over the weekend has suddenly elevated all their rpi metrics. A whopping 8-6 vs top 50...you do not find many if any bubble teams with that many top 50 wins, 10-10 vs top 100. Solid OOC wins over Vandy and at Georgia. Season sweeps of Creighton/Xavier and cannot mention enough the win over Villanova. Did get swept by PC but that will not come into play nor will that one bad loss to St John's. Draws SHU in Big East tourney first round but feeling is that will be a game more for seeding than one that could knock them out of the tourney. Would be shocked if they did not get a bid.
2. (47) MICHIGAN STATE 18-13: Sparty had a tough week losing close ones to Illinois and Maryland on the road. No shame in that but that overall loss total is getting high. If MSU drops their first round Big 10 tourney game against Neb/PSU that 18-14 mark will start to come into play not to mention it will be considered a bad loss. Now not saying it would knock them out as the thinking is Sparty has enough meat on the resume to overcome it but it gives the committee a possible reason to pass on them and go in another direction and as a bubble team you always want to control your destiny. Win that tourney game and all the numbers say go....5-8 vs top 50 and a whopping 11-12 vs top 100. SOS of 9...Big 10 wins over Michigan, Wisconsin and a sweep of Minnesota plus OOC wins over Wichita State, Florida Gulf Coast. Tom Izzo gave his marching orders to the media last night in a press conference rant about how little respect the Big 10 is getting while the other leagues (like the ACC) have shills....he is right ya know.
3. (43) SETON HALL 20-10: Pirates are another perfect example of a team playing their way into the tournament. The dip of schools like Xavier/Creighton meant this resume needed a bit more beef especially at the top so winning at Butler was a much needed addition. SHU now moves to 4-6 vs top 50 rpi schools and a fine 10-9 vs top 100. OOC the win over SC was strong and win at Iowa looking better by the day to offset the Cal win looking less so. Split the season series with Marquette and PC. There is that one bad loss to SJU but its only one. SHU gets a tough one Marquette in the BE tourney quarters, thinking is MU is in better shape to sustain a loss than SHU, I would not say it's a must win for the Pirates but a loss could put them in that first four grouping. Again at this point, you want to control your own destiny just to be on the safe side.
4. (26) ARKANSAS 23-8: Arky's overall rpi has soared, it is the 2nd highest among the bubbles yet despite alot of strong nitty gritty stuff it is not an overwhelming profile. Helped out by Georgia and Vandy hanging in the top 50 and now Houston is up to 50...that gives them 5 top 50 wins but only two (South Carolina/Texas Arlington) are headed to the NCAA tourney. Note two bad losses, one to awful 238 Missouri. 11-6 vs top 100 is a great number but again its filled with SEC mediocrity. Bland resume but you have to give credit to 23 wins and 12-6 in SEC. Thinking is that they probably did just enough to go as the 4th SEC team but in a stronger year for the bubble this profile would have issues. Gets double bye in SEC tourney and will meet Aub/Mizz-Ole Miss winner. Really do not think its a must win but do they really want to find out, at this point a tourney team wins that game.
5. (23) VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 24-7: Failed to win at Dayton so missed opportunity to win the regular season A10 title. This is just an okay resume and it speaks to the reality that the A10 has turned into a midmajor this year. Quality in league wins are scarce. Just the one over Dayton. URI is the only other bubble team and the Rams lost that game. Alot of VCU's resumes relies over wins over strong mid majors like Princeton, Middle Tennessee State and UNC Asheville. Not knock you over the head wins but wins that the committee will like nonetheless. 2-3 vs top 50, 9-5 vs top 100. Note the losses to bubbles Ga Tech and Illinois. There are two plus 100 bad losses including 211 Fordham. Rams draw the winner of Fordham/Geo Mason. With URI lurking around and how St Bonnies from the A10 with a similar profile got snubbed last year, it would do them well to avoid another bad loss and win that game.
6. (77) SYRACUSE 18-13: Orange got that needed win over Ga Tech to avoid a dreaded 14th loss. That's very important because no school with 15 losses has ever been awarded an at large bid in NCAA tournament history, the Orange will avoid that distinction but for the 2nd year in a row they must overcome their poor overall rpi number. In 2016, Cuse at 70 became the worst rated school to get an at large bid. This year at 77, once again they seem intent on breaking records. Two things most likely holding that number back is the atrocious 2-10 road/neutral mark and the bad loss to 210 BC as well as two other plus rpi losses UConn/St Johns. Okay onto the positive and there is alot of positive here. 6-7 vs top 50, 9-10 vs top 100, 10-8 in what is considered the best conference in the country. No school on the bubble has wins like this.....Florida State, Duke, Virginia, Miami, Wake, Monmouth. Listen this is Syracuse, their coach is Boeheim, the NCAA selection committee supposedly does not consider intangibles but do you really believe that? Cuse validated their controversial inclusion last year with a shakier resume. They draw Miami in ACC 1st round. A win and they are in no question, a loss and the talk begins but what do you think will happen?
7. (38) USC 23-8: Trojans problem has been twofold of late, the bubble teams around the keep annexing quality wins while they themselves have not picked up a quality win since Jan 25 over UCLA. Now that was a big feather in their cap win and when you combine it with the OOC win over SMU you wonder what is the problem here, the Trojans are 23-8, two top 20 wins, 10-8 in Pac 12, only one loss outside the top 100? The problem is besides that 2-5 top 50 mark, USC is just 5-7 vs top 100 and only 9-8 vs top 150. Their other top 100 wins do not move the needle, they are not enough of them and the SOS of 77 is not helping. USC just needs to keep winning, they swept the Washington schools over the weekend and they get Washington in the first round of the Pac 12 tourney. It could be enough but then again it might not because other schools around them are having shots at improving their profile. USC just might need to beat UCLA again in the Pac 12 tourney quarters to secure a position. Seen this disappointing movie on Selection Sunday with middling profiles like this that lack beef.
8. (52) PROVIDENCE 20-11: Friars finished the season on quite a roll winning their last 6 including notching 4 quality wins. This past week was about taking care of business and avoiding bad losses and mission accomplished. See its the bad loss thing that is the only thing holding them back from locking in. The Friars have 3 plus 100 rpi losses but two of them are real bad...at 210 BC and at 229 De Paul. Its okay to have one, even two...but when you have three all bets are off, no matter how well you finish and how many quality wins you have. Still at 5-7 vs top 50 and 10-8 vs top 100, the Friars who somehow managed to snag the 3 seed in the BE tourney have a lot to be hopeful about. Non conference wins over Rhody and NCAA likely Vermont. Split with Xavier, Creighton, Butler and SHU and swept Marquette. 4 Big East bubbles lurking around so that always complicates things. PC draws Creighton in BE quarters. A win and they are in but a loss does leave things up in the air...while they should be okay albeit playing in the first four, I could also see reasons why they get left out
9. (28) WAKE FOREST 18-12: Demon Deacons had the best week ever. Home win over Louisville capped off with a road comeback win over Virginia Tech bolstering their shaky nitty gritty. At least now they are up to 3 top 50 wins, 3-8 and the 8-12 top 100 mark is better. No overwhelming OOC win but note the wins over strong low majors Charleston/Bucknell are two conference champions teams. A big key is that Wake has avoided any bad losses, worst loss to Clemson. Taking that with the SOS of 13 are big plusses to help overcome the lack of quality wins. Next up is BC in the ACC first round...it is a must win but the question then is do they have to beat Va Tech again? If they win they punch in for sure. Think they can still get in with a loss but what happens around the bubble is going to determine that. If schools like Iowa, Illinois or Kansas State can make runs that might prevent a 10th team from the ACC to dance.
10. (44) VANDERBILT 17-14: The Commodores are going to be the most controversial bubble team in the next week. On Saturday, they saved their season by completing the season sweep of Florida after they blew a huge opportunity after melting down at Kentucky. Unfortunately that loss was their 14th. As mentioned before, no school has received an at large bid with 15 losses and if Vandy does not win the SEC tourney, they will finish with 15 losses. To counter that prospect there is alot of good here. Vandy swept Florida, beat South Carolina, won at South Carolina and a fine OOC win over Iowa State. 5-8 vs top 50 and 10-13 vs top 100. Note 23 games played against the top 100...that shows in the SOS of 3 and a non conference SOS of 2...committee values strong SOS and values road wins. If they miss the tourney that one really bad loss to 262 Missouri is going to be the reason. Vandy needs to win as many game as possible, a loss in the first round of SEC to Texas A&M would kill them. Would they need to take Florida down a third time? If they do not, that's when things get scary and they sit on the brink. Very tough call for the committee but if recent history is any indication, they are favoring the bloated power conference schools with quality wins and strong SOS over mid major conference champs who do not win their conference tournaments.
11. (32) XAVIER 19-12: In a stronger bubble year, Xavier would most likely find themselves in serious trouble. Yet this year they are able to hang on, that is what the win over De Paul that stopped a 6 game losing streak did, it stopped the bleeding and allowed them to hang on but will another win over De Paul in the BE tourney be enough. The overall rpi number is solid as is the SOS of 12 but when you really look at things there is not alot of flesh on the resume. The 6 losses were not bad because they all came at once, they were bad because they all were missed opportunities to pick up quality wins. Not sure how deserving a school is with just wins over SHU, Creighton, Providence and Wake...does not seem like enough....3-8 vs top 50 and 8-11 vs top 100. To its benefit, just one loss outside the top 100 and to 103 Colorado is not all that bad. Thinking is that Xavier has left enough doubt at this point on its resume that not only will it need to be De Paul but also Butler to secure a bid. Clearly Xavier is behind 6 other Big East teams, not sure a strong push is going to be made for a 7th with a sketchy resume.
12. (26-6) ILLINOIS STATE 26-6: No question the Redbirds will be sweating it out Selection Sunday. The metrics are working against them despite a solid overall rpi number. Only one school has ever been invited as an at large with just two top 100 wins. Going to be a test case for the committee...do they throw a bone to the co regular season MVC champs who do own a win over Wichita State or do they go with the bloated power 6 conference route? The trend has been to the latter yet the NCAA seems to throw curveballs every now and then. Unfortunately ISU did not pass the eye test yesterday vs Wichita State and that was the 2nd time the Shockers blew them out. Just 2-4 vs top 100, even the little things might matter now...their other top 100 win New Mexico, have to hope the Lobos can be an upset winner in the MWC. But what about the loss to 232 Murray State and another one to Tulsa...those are things that really work against them here and tough to make a case for them. They sit as last in for now but it is not a good spot to be in as their season is done and a bunch of bubbles below them are still playing and have opportunites for quality wins.
OUT
13. (42) RHODE ISLAND 21-9: Rams averted disaster by taking down Davidson in overtime. Now their path to the tourney consists of either winning the tourney outright which they can or getting to the A10 finals and hoping its enough. Just 2-4 vs top 50 but how big is that win over Cincy. A win over VCU is their only other quality win, 5-7 vs top 100 against mediocre types hurts as does that horrible loss to 211 Fordham which may prove costliest of all. The A10 is clearly down in respect this year. Not helping that Dayton the league winner dropped its last game. See with this level of tightness and amount of warts around the bubble, every little thing counts. URI absolutely needs to beat St Bonnies in the quarters and then that sets up a shot at a quality win over Dayton. Could that be enough? Not sure but the Rams profile is eerily similar to Tulsa's last year and Tulsa somehow got a bid to the tourney from the AAC. Curveballs are NCAA selection committee's specialty.
14. (57) ILLINOIS 17-13: Such a shame that Illinois could not take care of business at Rutgers and suffered their first bad loss of the year. They had really done some good things the past few weeks including the big wins over Michigan State and Northwestern that floated them into the field. Still despite proclamations that their bubble had burst with the Rutgers loss, the Illini still find themselves alive but with work to do. Now just 3-8 vs top 50 as Northwestern has floated outside the top 50 but that could change. In addition to the MSU and sweep over Northwestern, a league win over Michigan and a neutral site win over VCU. The 11-12 mark is strong for a team outside the bubble...note how those 2 wins over Iowa are looking better and 23 games vs top 100 shows in the outstanding SOS of 20. Their path seems clear...beat Michigan in the first round of the Big 12 tourney and then beat Purdue in the quarters...that should be enough to vault them back. Beating Michigan at least keeps them in the discussion but leaves things at maybe 40/60 to get back in. A loss to Michigan almost surely will leave them out of the field.
15. (58) KANSAS STATE 19-12: 8 losses in 10 games including a 30 point beatdown to 149 Oklahoma put the Wildcats hopes on life support and two wins over TCU and Texas Tech have kept the pulse alive. Those wins do not move any needles but in a year of the weak bloated bubble that is all you need. Its about positioning. KSU is at least positioned now to play its way into the field of 68. Its going to come down to beat Baylor in the Big 12 quarters. Not impossible because KSU has a win at Baylor earlier this year and they do have wins over the likes of WVU and OSU. Have to note the two close losses to Kansas as well. 3-8 vs top 50 but only 5-10 vs top 100, the latter number a big program as is the 8-12 mark vs top 100. Thats why they must beat Baylor but will that be enough, do they have to beat WVU as well...first things first.
16. (69) IOWA 18-13: How sneaky have the Hawkeyes been this year. Whether it was a non conference win over Iowa State or early season surprises wins over Purdue and Michigan or the out of the blue late season push with road wins at Maryland and Wisconsin, Iowa has silenty crept and is now stating their case. 10-8 in the Big 10 is nothing to discount given the competitiveness of the league from top to bottom. Hawkeyes are 5-7 vs top 50, 9-11 vs top 100 these are strong numbers. Might be undervaluing them right now. How the committee values the Big 10 is going to determine alot, last year the committee did not think highly of the Big 10 and it was reflected in seeding, when the top 16 schools were released and no Big 10 school was found that may have signaled that the NCAA was buying into the down Big 10 narrative. So when we get down to schools like Illinois and Iowa who have more top 50 and 100 wins than most, how is the selection committee looking at this. Iowa must beat Indiana in the second round of the Big 12 tourney and that sets up a matchup with Wisconsin who they just beat last week. Win that and its hard to deny them based on their nitty gritty.
17. (55) CALIFORNIA 19-11: Bears are really teetering now after losing road games at Utah/Colorado. They do not have a quality win since Jan 8 at USC which is their only top 50 win....1-7. They went 0-5 vs the top 3 schools in the Pac 12, a league that is proving to be quite mediocre to poor beyond its top 3. Just 4-9 vs top 100, the other win of note being Princeton. Now two losses to plus 100 schools. It will be very easy for the committee to bypass a school that a few weeks ago looked like they were solidly in. Cal draws Oregon State in the Pac 12 first round and then gets Utah, those games will not move any needle. Cal will then need to be Oregon in the Pac 12 semis to even have a shot...it at least puts them in the game, but not even sure that would be enough.
18. (66) CLEMSON 16-14: Tigers are the zombie of the bubble that will not go away. Just when you think you are rid of them they lunge out of the ground at you. Obviously the win/loss number is a huge issue as is the poor 6-12 ACC mark and the already documented the 15 loss metric that will come into play. Plus they have two other ACC bubble schools significantly ahead of them in the pecking order. Still there are things working for them on the resume. A sweep of Wake, wins at So Carolina, wins over Georgia and UNC Wilmington. 5-11 vs top 50 and 9-13 vs top 100 are willing if the Tigers can annex some quality wins in the ACC tourney. For starters they need to take care of lowly NC State in first round of ACC but then will need wins over Duke and Louisville back to back to vault them in. Possible not probable, it is up to them.
19. (48) GEORGIA 17-13: Such a weak year for the bubble that it is hard to even scratch out the 7th team left out spot and here is Georgia. Sorry but one win over a top 50 school (1-8)..not even a NCAA lock Vandy should not get you consideration. Georgia is riding high on a SOS of 15 and a solid enough rpi of 48....9-12 vs top 100 is not as impressive as it looks once you unpeel the onion. The loss to Arkansas over the weekend realistically ended their chances. Their SEC path is Tennessee and then a meeting with Kentucky but it will probably take another quality win in the semis to put them back in. Georgia went 0-7 vs SEC top 4 this year so good luck
20. (67) MISSISSIPPI 19-12: If Georgia is on this list, suppose Ole Miss should be here. Rebels have two top 50 wins...at Vandy and SC for a 2-5 top 50 but only 5-12 vs top 100 with their best OOC win being 109 Memphis. I guess their best argument is no loss outside the top 100. This is a NIT resume. Seeded 6th in the SEC tourney, they get the Auburn/Mizzou winner then face Arkansas in the quarters and then likley Florida/Vandy in the semis. Will need to reach the finals for any serious consideration and pray real hard.
21. (95) GEORGIA TECH 16-14: Major red flags with much discussed overall record and an rpi which seems too high to overcome. Still with 4 top 50 wins...VCU/ND/FSU and the big won North Carolina, the Yellowjackets remain on the fringes. 4-8 vs top 50/7-12 vs top 100. Perhaps if they did not have the 2 plus top 100 losses to Ohio and NC St they could sustain the sheer amount of losing on the profile. The blowout loss to Syracuse was disasterous as it really was a must win for them to be in contention without making a run to the ACC finals. Now that is mandatory which means winning vs Pitt and then beat UVA, ND and then someone else in the semis. Longest of longshots.
22. (50) HOUSTON 21-9/(72) UTAH 18-10/(49) MONMOUTH 27-6: Combined these schools are 2-13 vs top 50 rpi and 7-19 vs top 100. Virtually no shot at all. If Utah can make Pac 12 finals, will revisit them but when your best OOC win is 208 Utah Valley State you do not have a legit NCAA at large bid resume. Houston's best win is URI and a win over Cincy in the AAC tourney is not moving any needles. Beating Princeton and winning the weak MAAC does not mean Monmouth deserves a bid.
LAST 4 IN: ILLINOIS STATE, XAVIER, VANDERBILT, WAKE FOREST
LAST 4 OUT: RHODE ISLAND, ILLINOIS, KANSAS STATE, IOWA
ACC: North Carolina
AMERICA EAST: Vermont
AMERICAN: SMU
ATLANTIC SUN: Florida Gulf Coast
ATLANTIC TEN: Dayton
BIG 10: Purdue
BIG 12: Kansas
BIG EAST: Villanova
BIG SKY: North Dakota
BIG SOUTH: Winthrop
BIG WEST: UC Irvine
COLONIAL: North Carolina Wilmington
CUSA: Middle Tennessee State
HORIZON: Northern Kentucky
IVY: Princeton
MAAC: Iona
MIDAMERICAN: Akron
MEAC: North Carolina Central
MISSOURI VALLEY: Wichita State
MOUNTAIN WEST: Nevada
NORTHEAST: Mount St Mary's
OHIO VALLEY: Jacksonville State
PATRIOT: Bucknell
PAC 12: Oregon
SEC: Kentucky
SOUTHERN: UNC Greensboro
SOUTHLAND: New Orleans
SUN BELT: Texas Arlington
SWAC: Texas Southern
SUMMIT: South Dakota
WAC: CSU Bakersfield
WCC: Gonzaga
24 Projected At Large Locks: Cincinnati, Louisville, Duke, Virginia, Florida State, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Butler, Creighton, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Maryland, Minnesota, Michigan,Northwestern, Arizona, UCLA, Florida, South Carolina, St Mary's
That takes care of 56 of the 68 available spots. That leaves 12 spots open. Here is the pecking order....
IN
1. (56) MARQUETTE 19-11: The big win over Villanova put the Eagles in position to gain a bid but it was the play down the stretch that has elevated them to top of the BE bubble pecking order. A sweep over Xavier and a really important win over Creighton over the weekend has suddenly elevated all their rpi metrics. A whopping 8-6 vs top 50...you do not find many if any bubble teams with that many top 50 wins, 10-10 vs top 100. Solid OOC wins over Vandy and at Georgia. Season sweeps of Creighton/Xavier and cannot mention enough the win over Villanova. Did get swept by PC but that will not come into play nor will that one bad loss to St John's. Draws SHU in Big East tourney first round but feeling is that will be a game more for seeding than one that could knock them out of the tourney. Would be shocked if they did not get a bid.
2. (47) MICHIGAN STATE 18-13: Sparty had a tough week losing close ones to Illinois and Maryland on the road. No shame in that but that overall loss total is getting high. If MSU drops their first round Big 10 tourney game against Neb/PSU that 18-14 mark will start to come into play not to mention it will be considered a bad loss. Now not saying it would knock them out as the thinking is Sparty has enough meat on the resume to overcome it but it gives the committee a possible reason to pass on them and go in another direction and as a bubble team you always want to control your destiny. Win that tourney game and all the numbers say go....5-8 vs top 50 and a whopping 11-12 vs top 100. SOS of 9...Big 10 wins over Michigan, Wisconsin and a sweep of Minnesota plus OOC wins over Wichita State, Florida Gulf Coast. Tom Izzo gave his marching orders to the media last night in a press conference rant about how little respect the Big 10 is getting while the other leagues (like the ACC) have shills....he is right ya know.
3. (43) SETON HALL 20-10: Pirates are another perfect example of a team playing their way into the tournament. The dip of schools like Xavier/Creighton meant this resume needed a bit more beef especially at the top so winning at Butler was a much needed addition. SHU now moves to 4-6 vs top 50 rpi schools and a fine 10-9 vs top 100. OOC the win over SC was strong and win at Iowa looking better by the day to offset the Cal win looking less so. Split the season series with Marquette and PC. There is that one bad loss to SJU but its only one. SHU gets a tough one Marquette in the BE tourney quarters, thinking is MU is in better shape to sustain a loss than SHU, I would not say it's a must win for the Pirates but a loss could put them in that first four grouping. Again at this point, you want to control your own destiny just to be on the safe side.
4. (26) ARKANSAS 23-8: Arky's overall rpi has soared, it is the 2nd highest among the bubbles yet despite alot of strong nitty gritty stuff it is not an overwhelming profile. Helped out by Georgia and Vandy hanging in the top 50 and now Houston is up to 50...that gives them 5 top 50 wins but only two (South Carolina/Texas Arlington) are headed to the NCAA tourney. Note two bad losses, one to awful 238 Missouri. 11-6 vs top 100 is a great number but again its filled with SEC mediocrity. Bland resume but you have to give credit to 23 wins and 12-6 in SEC. Thinking is that they probably did just enough to go as the 4th SEC team but in a stronger year for the bubble this profile would have issues. Gets double bye in SEC tourney and will meet Aub/Mizz-Ole Miss winner. Really do not think its a must win but do they really want to find out, at this point a tourney team wins that game.
5. (23) VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 24-7: Failed to win at Dayton so missed opportunity to win the regular season A10 title. This is just an okay resume and it speaks to the reality that the A10 has turned into a midmajor this year. Quality in league wins are scarce. Just the one over Dayton. URI is the only other bubble team and the Rams lost that game. Alot of VCU's resumes relies over wins over strong mid majors like Princeton, Middle Tennessee State and UNC Asheville. Not knock you over the head wins but wins that the committee will like nonetheless. 2-3 vs top 50, 9-5 vs top 100. Note the losses to bubbles Ga Tech and Illinois. There are two plus 100 bad losses including 211 Fordham. Rams draw the winner of Fordham/Geo Mason. With URI lurking around and how St Bonnies from the A10 with a similar profile got snubbed last year, it would do them well to avoid another bad loss and win that game.
6. (77) SYRACUSE 18-13: Orange got that needed win over Ga Tech to avoid a dreaded 14th loss. That's very important because no school with 15 losses has ever been awarded an at large bid in NCAA tournament history, the Orange will avoid that distinction but for the 2nd year in a row they must overcome their poor overall rpi number. In 2016, Cuse at 70 became the worst rated school to get an at large bid. This year at 77, once again they seem intent on breaking records. Two things most likely holding that number back is the atrocious 2-10 road/neutral mark and the bad loss to 210 BC as well as two other plus rpi losses UConn/St Johns. Okay onto the positive and there is alot of positive here. 6-7 vs top 50, 9-10 vs top 100, 10-8 in what is considered the best conference in the country. No school on the bubble has wins like this.....Florida State, Duke, Virginia, Miami, Wake, Monmouth. Listen this is Syracuse, their coach is Boeheim, the NCAA selection committee supposedly does not consider intangibles but do you really believe that? Cuse validated their controversial inclusion last year with a shakier resume. They draw Miami in ACC 1st round. A win and they are in no question, a loss and the talk begins but what do you think will happen?
7. (38) USC 23-8: Trojans problem has been twofold of late, the bubble teams around the keep annexing quality wins while they themselves have not picked up a quality win since Jan 25 over UCLA. Now that was a big feather in their cap win and when you combine it with the OOC win over SMU you wonder what is the problem here, the Trojans are 23-8, two top 20 wins, 10-8 in Pac 12, only one loss outside the top 100? The problem is besides that 2-5 top 50 mark, USC is just 5-7 vs top 100 and only 9-8 vs top 150. Their other top 100 wins do not move the needle, they are not enough of them and the SOS of 77 is not helping. USC just needs to keep winning, they swept the Washington schools over the weekend and they get Washington in the first round of the Pac 12 tourney. It could be enough but then again it might not because other schools around them are having shots at improving their profile. USC just might need to beat UCLA again in the Pac 12 tourney quarters to secure a position. Seen this disappointing movie on Selection Sunday with middling profiles like this that lack beef.
8. (52) PROVIDENCE 20-11: Friars finished the season on quite a roll winning their last 6 including notching 4 quality wins. This past week was about taking care of business and avoiding bad losses and mission accomplished. See its the bad loss thing that is the only thing holding them back from locking in. The Friars have 3 plus 100 rpi losses but two of them are real bad...at 210 BC and at 229 De Paul. Its okay to have one, even two...but when you have three all bets are off, no matter how well you finish and how many quality wins you have. Still at 5-7 vs top 50 and 10-8 vs top 100, the Friars who somehow managed to snag the 3 seed in the BE tourney have a lot to be hopeful about. Non conference wins over Rhody and NCAA likely Vermont. Split with Xavier, Creighton, Butler and SHU and swept Marquette. 4 Big East bubbles lurking around so that always complicates things. PC draws Creighton in BE quarters. A win and they are in but a loss does leave things up in the air...while they should be okay albeit playing in the first four, I could also see reasons why they get left out
9. (28) WAKE FOREST 18-12: Demon Deacons had the best week ever. Home win over Louisville capped off with a road comeback win over Virginia Tech bolstering their shaky nitty gritty. At least now they are up to 3 top 50 wins, 3-8 and the 8-12 top 100 mark is better. No overwhelming OOC win but note the wins over strong low majors Charleston/Bucknell are two conference champions teams. A big key is that Wake has avoided any bad losses, worst loss to Clemson. Taking that with the SOS of 13 are big plusses to help overcome the lack of quality wins. Next up is BC in the ACC first round...it is a must win but the question then is do they have to beat Va Tech again? If they win they punch in for sure. Think they can still get in with a loss but what happens around the bubble is going to determine that. If schools like Iowa, Illinois or Kansas State can make runs that might prevent a 10th team from the ACC to dance.
10. (44) VANDERBILT 17-14: The Commodores are going to be the most controversial bubble team in the next week. On Saturday, they saved their season by completing the season sweep of Florida after they blew a huge opportunity after melting down at Kentucky. Unfortunately that loss was their 14th. As mentioned before, no school has received an at large bid with 15 losses and if Vandy does not win the SEC tourney, they will finish with 15 losses. To counter that prospect there is alot of good here. Vandy swept Florida, beat South Carolina, won at South Carolina and a fine OOC win over Iowa State. 5-8 vs top 50 and 10-13 vs top 100. Note 23 games played against the top 100...that shows in the SOS of 3 and a non conference SOS of 2...committee values strong SOS and values road wins. If they miss the tourney that one really bad loss to 262 Missouri is going to be the reason. Vandy needs to win as many game as possible, a loss in the first round of SEC to Texas A&M would kill them. Would they need to take Florida down a third time? If they do not, that's when things get scary and they sit on the brink. Very tough call for the committee but if recent history is any indication, they are favoring the bloated power conference schools with quality wins and strong SOS over mid major conference champs who do not win their conference tournaments.
11. (32) XAVIER 19-12: In a stronger bubble year, Xavier would most likely find themselves in serious trouble. Yet this year they are able to hang on, that is what the win over De Paul that stopped a 6 game losing streak did, it stopped the bleeding and allowed them to hang on but will another win over De Paul in the BE tourney be enough. The overall rpi number is solid as is the SOS of 12 but when you really look at things there is not alot of flesh on the resume. The 6 losses were not bad because they all came at once, they were bad because they all were missed opportunities to pick up quality wins. Not sure how deserving a school is with just wins over SHU, Creighton, Providence and Wake...does not seem like enough....3-8 vs top 50 and 8-11 vs top 100. To its benefit, just one loss outside the top 100 and to 103 Colorado is not all that bad. Thinking is that Xavier has left enough doubt at this point on its resume that not only will it need to be De Paul but also Butler to secure a bid. Clearly Xavier is behind 6 other Big East teams, not sure a strong push is going to be made for a 7th with a sketchy resume.
12. (26-6) ILLINOIS STATE 26-6: No question the Redbirds will be sweating it out Selection Sunday. The metrics are working against them despite a solid overall rpi number. Only one school has ever been invited as an at large with just two top 100 wins. Going to be a test case for the committee...do they throw a bone to the co regular season MVC champs who do own a win over Wichita State or do they go with the bloated power 6 conference route? The trend has been to the latter yet the NCAA seems to throw curveballs every now and then. Unfortunately ISU did not pass the eye test yesterday vs Wichita State and that was the 2nd time the Shockers blew them out. Just 2-4 vs top 100, even the little things might matter now...their other top 100 win New Mexico, have to hope the Lobos can be an upset winner in the MWC. But what about the loss to 232 Murray State and another one to Tulsa...those are things that really work against them here and tough to make a case for them. They sit as last in for now but it is not a good spot to be in as their season is done and a bunch of bubbles below them are still playing and have opportunites for quality wins.
OUT
13. (42) RHODE ISLAND 21-9: Rams averted disaster by taking down Davidson in overtime. Now their path to the tourney consists of either winning the tourney outright which they can or getting to the A10 finals and hoping its enough. Just 2-4 vs top 50 but how big is that win over Cincy. A win over VCU is their only other quality win, 5-7 vs top 100 against mediocre types hurts as does that horrible loss to 211 Fordham which may prove costliest of all. The A10 is clearly down in respect this year. Not helping that Dayton the league winner dropped its last game. See with this level of tightness and amount of warts around the bubble, every little thing counts. URI absolutely needs to beat St Bonnies in the quarters and then that sets up a shot at a quality win over Dayton. Could that be enough? Not sure but the Rams profile is eerily similar to Tulsa's last year and Tulsa somehow got a bid to the tourney from the AAC. Curveballs are NCAA selection committee's specialty.
14. (57) ILLINOIS 17-13: Such a shame that Illinois could not take care of business at Rutgers and suffered their first bad loss of the year. They had really done some good things the past few weeks including the big wins over Michigan State and Northwestern that floated them into the field. Still despite proclamations that their bubble had burst with the Rutgers loss, the Illini still find themselves alive but with work to do. Now just 3-8 vs top 50 as Northwestern has floated outside the top 50 but that could change. In addition to the MSU and sweep over Northwestern, a league win over Michigan and a neutral site win over VCU. The 11-12 mark is strong for a team outside the bubble...note how those 2 wins over Iowa are looking better and 23 games vs top 100 shows in the outstanding SOS of 20. Their path seems clear...beat Michigan in the first round of the Big 12 tourney and then beat Purdue in the quarters...that should be enough to vault them back. Beating Michigan at least keeps them in the discussion but leaves things at maybe 40/60 to get back in. A loss to Michigan almost surely will leave them out of the field.
15. (58) KANSAS STATE 19-12: 8 losses in 10 games including a 30 point beatdown to 149 Oklahoma put the Wildcats hopes on life support and two wins over TCU and Texas Tech have kept the pulse alive. Those wins do not move any needles but in a year of the weak bloated bubble that is all you need. Its about positioning. KSU is at least positioned now to play its way into the field of 68. Its going to come down to beat Baylor in the Big 12 quarters. Not impossible because KSU has a win at Baylor earlier this year and they do have wins over the likes of WVU and OSU. Have to note the two close losses to Kansas as well. 3-8 vs top 50 but only 5-10 vs top 100, the latter number a big program as is the 8-12 mark vs top 100. Thats why they must beat Baylor but will that be enough, do they have to beat WVU as well...first things first.
16. (69) IOWA 18-13: How sneaky have the Hawkeyes been this year. Whether it was a non conference win over Iowa State or early season surprises wins over Purdue and Michigan or the out of the blue late season push with road wins at Maryland and Wisconsin, Iowa has silenty crept and is now stating their case. 10-8 in the Big 10 is nothing to discount given the competitiveness of the league from top to bottom. Hawkeyes are 5-7 vs top 50, 9-11 vs top 100 these are strong numbers. Might be undervaluing them right now. How the committee values the Big 10 is going to determine alot, last year the committee did not think highly of the Big 10 and it was reflected in seeding, when the top 16 schools were released and no Big 10 school was found that may have signaled that the NCAA was buying into the down Big 10 narrative. So when we get down to schools like Illinois and Iowa who have more top 50 and 100 wins than most, how is the selection committee looking at this. Iowa must beat Indiana in the second round of the Big 12 tourney and that sets up a matchup with Wisconsin who they just beat last week. Win that and its hard to deny them based on their nitty gritty.
17. (55) CALIFORNIA 19-11: Bears are really teetering now after losing road games at Utah/Colorado. They do not have a quality win since Jan 8 at USC which is their only top 50 win....1-7. They went 0-5 vs the top 3 schools in the Pac 12, a league that is proving to be quite mediocre to poor beyond its top 3. Just 4-9 vs top 100, the other win of note being Princeton. Now two losses to plus 100 schools. It will be very easy for the committee to bypass a school that a few weeks ago looked like they were solidly in. Cal draws Oregon State in the Pac 12 first round and then gets Utah, those games will not move any needle. Cal will then need to be Oregon in the Pac 12 semis to even have a shot...it at least puts them in the game, but not even sure that would be enough.
18. (66) CLEMSON 16-14: Tigers are the zombie of the bubble that will not go away. Just when you think you are rid of them they lunge out of the ground at you. Obviously the win/loss number is a huge issue as is the poor 6-12 ACC mark and the already documented the 15 loss metric that will come into play. Plus they have two other ACC bubble schools significantly ahead of them in the pecking order. Still there are things working for them on the resume. A sweep of Wake, wins at So Carolina, wins over Georgia and UNC Wilmington. 5-11 vs top 50 and 9-13 vs top 100 are willing if the Tigers can annex some quality wins in the ACC tourney. For starters they need to take care of lowly NC State in first round of ACC but then will need wins over Duke and Louisville back to back to vault them in. Possible not probable, it is up to them.
19. (48) GEORGIA 17-13: Such a weak year for the bubble that it is hard to even scratch out the 7th team left out spot and here is Georgia. Sorry but one win over a top 50 school (1-8)..not even a NCAA lock Vandy should not get you consideration. Georgia is riding high on a SOS of 15 and a solid enough rpi of 48....9-12 vs top 100 is not as impressive as it looks once you unpeel the onion. The loss to Arkansas over the weekend realistically ended their chances. Their SEC path is Tennessee and then a meeting with Kentucky but it will probably take another quality win in the semis to put them back in. Georgia went 0-7 vs SEC top 4 this year so good luck
20. (67) MISSISSIPPI 19-12: If Georgia is on this list, suppose Ole Miss should be here. Rebels have two top 50 wins...at Vandy and SC for a 2-5 top 50 but only 5-12 vs top 100 with their best OOC win being 109 Memphis. I guess their best argument is no loss outside the top 100. This is a NIT resume. Seeded 6th in the SEC tourney, they get the Auburn/Mizzou winner then face Arkansas in the quarters and then likley Florida/Vandy in the semis. Will need to reach the finals for any serious consideration and pray real hard.
21. (95) GEORGIA TECH 16-14: Major red flags with much discussed overall record and an rpi which seems too high to overcome. Still with 4 top 50 wins...VCU/ND/FSU and the big won North Carolina, the Yellowjackets remain on the fringes. 4-8 vs top 50/7-12 vs top 100. Perhaps if they did not have the 2 plus top 100 losses to Ohio and NC St they could sustain the sheer amount of losing on the profile. The blowout loss to Syracuse was disasterous as it really was a must win for them to be in contention without making a run to the ACC finals. Now that is mandatory which means winning vs Pitt and then beat UVA, ND and then someone else in the semis. Longest of longshots.
22. (50) HOUSTON 21-9/(72) UTAH 18-10/(49) MONMOUTH 27-6: Combined these schools are 2-13 vs top 50 rpi and 7-19 vs top 100. Virtually no shot at all. If Utah can make Pac 12 finals, will revisit them but when your best OOC win is 208 Utah Valley State you do not have a legit NCAA at large bid resume. Houston's best win is URI and a win over Cincy in the AAC tourney is not moving any needles. Beating Princeton and winning the weak MAAC does not mean Monmouth deserves a bid.
LAST 4 IN: ILLINOIS STATE, XAVIER, VANDERBILT, WAKE FOREST
LAST 4 OUT: RHODE ISLAND, ILLINOIS, KANSAS STATE, IOWA
