Providence was missing a starter in the Depaul loss and they were also a better road team. I also think the committee looks at how you are playing now and they have won their last six.
BAC'S NCAA Bubble Analysis and Pecking Order: 3/6/17
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Providence was missing a starter in the Depaul loss and they were also a better road team. I also think the committee looks at how you are playing now and they have won their last six.
They really don't consider that..what they will consider is the quality wins in that stretch...PC seems okay however their 3 bad losses leaves the door open...I could certainly see Cuse getting in over them and vice versa..very similar profiles
Yes Illinois could have been in with a win today and might not had to have beaten Purdue....talk about a team laying egss its last two games.
They will still be on the bubble board in consideration because there are so few schools even under consideration but there is very little chance for them to get selected now
They will still be on the bubble board in consideration because there are so few schools even under consideration but there is very little chance for them to get selected now
If we are talking about quality of wins, home vs road makes a huge difference. The win percentage chance of beating a team at home vs on road changes drastically. If the betting line typically moves 3 points each direction based on a home vs road matchup, that means that that for the wins to be equal, Duke has to be 6 points better than Wisky and UVA has to be 6 points better than Maryland.
I would think that the chances of winning vs Purdue, at Maryland, at Wisky is VERY close to the statistical projection chances of winning vs FSU, vs UVA, vs Duke.
I would think that the chances of winning vs Purdue, at Maryland, at Wisky is VERY close to the statistical projection chances of winning vs FSU, vs UVA, vs Duke.
and goodbye Illinois
just think you are trying too hard, I get everyone hates Syracuse but there are reasons that they will make the tournament, there are reasons that they will not, you can make a case either way. Thats why all these teams are on the bubble...they all have issues. No one should be crying that they are left out. It all depends on what the committee decides to emphasize with each team..sometimes its quality wins, sometimes its overall rpi number and road record, sometimes its strength of schedule
as to Iowa, you have to factor Iowa's two losses to Illinois as holding them back as well. If Illinois wasnt in the field how could Iowa being in too....the Big 10 had no shot at 9. However with Illinois out of the way, Iowa has a chance to be that 8th. Lets see what happens as we get further along with the conference touraments
just think you are trying too hard, I get everyone hates Syracuse but there are reasons that they will make the tournament, there are reasons that they will not, you can make a case either way. Thats why all these teams are on the bubble...they all have issues. No one should be crying that they are left out. It all depends on what the committee decides to emphasize with each team..sometimes its quality wins, sometimes its overall rpi number and road record, sometimes its strength of schedule
as to Iowa, you have to factor Iowa's two losses to Illinois as holding them back as well. If Illinois wasnt in the field how could Iowa being in too....the Big 10 had no shot at 9. However with Illinois out of the way, Iowa has a chance to be that 8th. Lets see what happens as we get further along with the conference touraments
Michigan State and Seton Hall looked pretty solid entering today but they are both well on their way to winning their games today and those two now move to the lock grouping meaning only 10 spots remain up for grabs
Georgia knocked off Tennessee to keep their slim hopes alive. Bulldogs will need to beat Kentucky, then win their SEC semifinal game to get serious consideration
TCU up on Kansas early in the 2nd half, Horned Frogs were written off as a bubble team so if they can win this game today perhaps we can revisit their profile but they would also need a win vs Iowa State to even have any consideration
TCU up on Kansas early in the 2nd half, Horned Frogs were written off as a bubble team so if they can win this game today perhaps we can revisit their profile but they would also need a win vs Iowa State to even have any consideration
yes I think SHU could possibly get a 9, Marquette is probably a 10 but I could see a scenerio where they get pushed to the play in game..but I think generally they are 80/20 in.
Kansas goes down to TCU....they will still be a one seed but it cost them the #1 overall which was a possibility.
TCU is a potential bid stealer, I think even if they beat ISU their profile does not seem worthy enough, need to win it all
Indiana and Iowa in good one, Indiana has a shot to be a zombie bubble team with a win. Iowa could move very close to being in with a win.
TCU is a potential bid stealer, I think even if they beat ISU their profile does not seem worthy enough, need to win it all
Indiana and Iowa in good one, Indiana has a shot to be a zombie bubble team with a win. Iowa could move very close to being in with a win.
Indiana looking real good tonight...as the announcers said they are passing the eye test....Going to very interesting if they can knock off Wisconsin in the quarters...if they lose in the semis they would be 19-15 but wins over Kansas and UNC to go along with a couple of other good ones, might be right there..if they make the finals which would then require beating MD/NW grouping, I think they will get in with 20 wins
Fran and the Hawkeyes bubble bursting
Fran and the Hawkeyes bubble bursting
Cal wins over Utah to stay alive but probably has to beat Oregon to get a bid...will be on the board though in the last 6 out grouping with a loss but could sneak in ala Tulsa last year
Xavier going dancing after beating Butler...as I said before I stand by my statment that the some of those BE teams have lost their luster as the season progressed
Vanderbilts routs Texas A&M to set up a matchup with Florida tomorrow in the SEC quarters...they have beaten the Gators twice already....if they do not win they will sit right ontop of the bubble
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boom...Kansas State possibly playing their way into the field by taking down Baylor in the Big 12 tourney....numbers crunching overnight to have my updated pecking order including last 4 in/last 4 out.
USC and UCLA just getting underway
Looks like Providence will go down to defeat to Creighton...PC should be okay but even with the loss but we will revisit and they might wind up in the play in games
USC and UCLA just getting underway
Looks like Providence will go down to defeat to Creighton...PC should be okay but even with the loss but we will revisit and they might wind up in the play in games
Wonder about conference tourneys. Kansas loses... rest.... Baylor loses....rest.... TCU gets in.... Kansas State gets in.... Every eligible Big East School gets in.... $$$$$.... win win .... except for Cuse...
And no I don't think its fixed but just wonder if teams playing as hard as they could. Rest for the losers is pretty good is a good deal.
And no I don't think its fixed but just wonder if teams playing as hard as they could. Rest for the losers is pretty good is a good deal.
most likely...but the selection committee usually throws one curveball where they use one criteria to justify putting one team in and then use another criteria to justify leaving another out..so I could see a scenerio where Providence is snubbed based on 3 bad losses...don't think its likely but I have seen the committee do this before and they'll put a team undeserving like Cal in...remember Tulsa getting in last year
Houston does not deserve a bid...2-4 vs top 50...and those wins just Vermont and Rhode Island...a paltry 4-6 vs top 100, 3 losses outside the top 100 including 182 LSU. This conference inexplicably got a bid last year with Tulsa with an underserving profile. The AAC is bad league beyond the first two. Even if they beat Cincinnati in the semis, assuming they beat UConn today, this resume is not good enough.
Updated pecking order
IN
1. Arkansas
2. VCU
3. Xavier
4. Marquette
5. Vanderbilt
6. USC
7. Wake Forest
8. Kansas State
9. Providence
10. Syracuse
OUT
11. Illinois State
12. Rhode Island
13. California
14. Indiana
15. TCU
16. Illinois
17. Iowa
18. Georgia
19. Mississippi
20. Houston
LAST 4 IN: SYRACUSE, PROVIDENCE, KANSAS STATE, WAKE FOREST
LAST 4 OUT: ILLINOIS STATE, RHODE ISLAND, CALIFORNIA, INDIANA
I believe Arkansas and VCU are all but locks at this point. Xavier is also probably very good, I think Marquette is slightly ahead of the rest but the grouping from teams 4-13 right now are pretty close. So I think there about 7 spots truly open right...beyond those teams schools like Cal, Indiana, TCU, and Georgia have legit opportunities to move into the field with more wins in their conference touranaments
If your season is over and you are still on the bubble, its never a good place to be
IN
1. Arkansas
2. VCU
3. Xavier
4. Marquette
5. Vanderbilt
6. USC
7. Wake Forest
8. Kansas State
9. Providence
10. Syracuse
OUT
11. Illinois State
12. Rhode Island
13. California
14. Indiana
15. TCU
16. Illinois
17. Iowa
18. Georgia
19. Mississippi
20. Houston
LAST 4 IN: SYRACUSE, PROVIDENCE, KANSAS STATE, WAKE FOREST
LAST 4 OUT: ILLINOIS STATE, RHODE ISLAND, CALIFORNIA, INDIANA
I believe Arkansas and VCU are all but locks at this point. Xavier is also probably very good, I think Marquette is slightly ahead of the rest but the grouping from teams 4-13 right now are pretty close. So I think there about 7 spots truly open right...beyond those teams schools like Cal, Indiana, TCU, and Georgia have legit opportunities to move into the field with more wins in their conference touranaments
If your season is over and you are still on the bubble, its never a good place to be
VCU should be safe but it is an unspectacular resume but you cannot make an argument that Illinois State should get in over VCU
Yes you can reward an excellent league season. After Monmouth last year you can't make the schedule better opponents out of conference argument.
Middle Tennessee State has made the CUSA final...they have a shot as an at large if they do not win it tomorrow
big shocker in the A10.....we have a potential big stealer lurking , Davidson upset top seeded Dayton. Davidson has no shot as an at large but the win has implications for both Rhode Island and VCU. Rhody will not be able to pick up the quality top 50 win that they needed in the A10 semis albeit they have an easier path to the finals and to win it. I think Dayton is clearly in even with the loss, they won the regular season A10 title and have 13 top 100 wins. I think VCU resume is a little sketchy..they cannot afford a loss today
big shocker in the A10.....we have a potential big stealer lurking , Davidson upset top seeded Dayton. Davidson has no shot as an at large but the win has implications for both Rhode Island and VCU. Rhody will not be able to pick up the quality top 50 win that they needed in the A10 semis albeit they have an easier path to the finals and to win it. I think Dayton is clearly in even with the loss, they won the regular season A10 title and have 13 top 100 wins. I think VCU resume is a little sketchy..they cannot afford a loss today
VCU plays in a much tougher league with better wins. Illinois State has 3 bad losses and were crushed by WSU the last two times they played. They do not pass the eye test
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