BAC'S NCAA Bubble Analysis and Pecking Order: 3/6/17
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Alabama upsets South Carolina. I suppose they are a faint bubble school right now, would have to beat Kentucky to get any serious look but that probably would not be enough
Rhode Island took down St Bonnies. Rams are very close to a bid..last team out right now. Legit threats to win the A10 tourney, best to do it that way to take it out of the committee's hands
Rhode Island took down St Bonnies. Rams are very close to a bid..last team out right now. Legit threats to win the A10 tourney, best to do it that way to take it out of the committee's hands
Indiana also done, put this zombie to rest after their comeback bid vs Indiana fell short
VCU topped George Mason to get an important win...in all liklihood in but just to be sure they should win tomorrow too
VCU topped George Mason to get an important win...in all liklihood in but just to be sure they should win tomorrow too
Vandy blew a 8 point lead with 3 minutes left but survived regulation and they go to overtime. Vandy really needs this win to feel safe.
TCU despite yesterday's win over Kansas is done after getting waxed by Iowa State
TCU despite yesterday's win over Kansas is done after getting waxed by Iowa State
Vandy passed the eye test in that overtime vs Florida...it was the third win over Florida this year. If they do not win the SEC tourney they will have 15 losses but this is a tourney team, They will become the first NCAA tourney team with 15 losses. They deserve this bid.
they are very good.....3 wins over Florida, won at Arkansas, beat South Carolina, Iowa State, led Kentucky by 19 before falling, only one bad loss (Missouri) yes it was really bad. Has won 7 of 8. 6-8 vs rpi top 50, 11-13 vs rpi top 100. SOS of 3, scored very highly on the eye test
Not really as Vandy can beat anybody. No 5-7 bowl team is beating Bama, Clemson etc. Beauty of Hoops!
huge games with bubble implications just went final....most of which went down the wire
Kansas State led much of the way but got nipped at the very end 51-50 by WVU and now they must sweat it out right on top of the bubble and perhaps at the mercy of what happens in the A10 tourney
Xavier got beat at the last second by Creighton. Xavier should be fine though
Cal played Oregon tough but couldnt pull off the upset. Do not think that was enough for them to get back in the tourney, just do not have the quality wins
UConn upset Houston and that ended the distant hopes that Cougars had.
Arkansas nips Ole Miss in thriller which ends any longshot Rebel hopes. Arkansas is officially a lock.
Kansas State led much of the way but got nipped at the very end 51-50 by WVU and now they must sweat it out right on top of the bubble and perhaps at the mercy of what happens in the A10 tourney
Xavier got beat at the last second by Creighton. Xavier should be fine though
Cal played Oregon tough but couldnt pull off the upset. Do not think that was enough for them to get back in the tourney, just do not have the quality wins
UConn upset Houston and that ended the distant hopes that Cougars had.
Arkansas nips Ole Miss in thriller which ends any longshot Rebel hopes. Arkansas is officially a lock.
Sometimes it is impossible to avoid a team playing on their home court St Johns has had it for years. UCONN draws the most fans by far in that league if it were held else where they would probably have half the people in the seats and that is not many.
morning update pecking order.....
I have projected Xavier and Arkansas into the field...that leaves 8 spots open....
IN
1. Vanderbilt
2. VCU
3. Marquette
4. USC
5. Wake Forest
6. Providence
7. Kansas State
8. Syracuse
OUT
9. Rhode Island
10. Illinois State
11. California
12. Indiana
13. Illinois
14. Iowa
15. Monmouth
16. TCU
17. Alabama
18. Georgia
LAST 4 IN: SYRACUSE, KANSAS STATE, PROVIDENCE, WAKE FOREST
LAST 4 OUT: RHODE ISLAND, ILLINOIS STATE, CALIFORNIA, INDIANA
The weak bubble is never more accurate than this season. Remember ever since they expanded the field to 68 from 65, 3 usually medicore schools have been added and there is less case to be made that some school was snubbed. This year that is so true. Realistically I think Vandy, VCU, and Marquette are safe. I believe its a fight for the 5 final spots but only 8 schools competing for them....Rhody, ISU, and Cal on the outside looking in right now. We could get a bid stealer from the A10 but that might prevent Rhody from getting in or another if Middle Tennessee State does not win CUSA today, they likely would be getting an at large. Alabama still looms in the SEC as a longshot
The last spot is going to come down to whether the committee wants bloated Syracuse and all the tradition and history or go with the little guy like Rhody or Illinois State. With a chance to showcase Syracuse on opening night of the tourney right now I am thinking the former despite a very sketchy profile.
I have projected Xavier and Arkansas into the field...that leaves 8 spots open....
IN
1. Vanderbilt
2. VCU
3. Marquette
4. USC
5. Wake Forest
6. Providence
7. Kansas State
8. Syracuse
OUT
9. Rhode Island
10. Illinois State
11. California
12. Indiana
13. Illinois
14. Iowa
15. Monmouth
16. TCU
17. Alabama
18. Georgia
LAST 4 IN: SYRACUSE, KANSAS STATE, PROVIDENCE, WAKE FOREST
LAST 4 OUT: RHODE ISLAND, ILLINOIS STATE, CALIFORNIA, INDIANA
The weak bubble is never more accurate than this season. Remember ever since they expanded the field to 68 from 65, 3 usually medicore schools have been added and there is less case to be made that some school was snubbed. This year that is so true. Realistically I think Vandy, VCU, and Marquette are safe. I believe its a fight for the 5 final spots but only 8 schools competing for them....Rhody, ISU, and Cal on the outside looking in right now. We could get a bid stealer from the A10 but that might prevent Rhody from getting in or another if Middle Tennessee State does not win CUSA today, they likely would be getting an at large. Alabama still looms in the SEC as a longshot
The last spot is going to come down to whether the committee wants bloated Syracuse and all the tradition and history or go with the little guy like Rhody or Illinois State. With a chance to showcase Syracuse on opening night of the tourney right now I am thinking the former despite a very sketchy profile.
yes and its really only coming down to a few schools right now barring a curveball from the NCAA which we have seen in the past...Tulsa last year...so for those hoping Cal gets in, thats what you can hope for. Lunardi and I have same field, only difference is he has USC in play in game not Providence. Jerry Palm after inexplicably trying to keep Vandy out now has them in and finally removed Cal. He has URI in as of now and Syracuse out not even in his last 4 out. He is a very statistic based and likes to used past history statistics when keeping teams out. He actually has Iowa on his last 4 out list.
going to be close... I see it coming down to Cuse/Rhody/Kansas State....2 of them get in
Actually I think it comes down to Cuse/or Wake, Rhode Island/ Illinois State. If 10 ACC teams are taken , then Rhode Island and Illinois State are out. I have Kansas State in. Illinois State has the weakest case. Subject to bid stealers, A-10, Conference USA , I have ACC 10, Big 10 and Big East 7, Big 12 for 6, SEC for 5, and PAC 12 for 4. If that holds Rhody and Illinois State out. If Syracuse or Wake are taken but not both , then 1 spot for Rhody and Illinois State for last spot and Rhody wins that argument. Rhody loses today , they are out, then ACC gets 10, and field is set subject to bid stealers mentioned above.
I am not a big fan of Illinois State...despite tieing for first in that league, they only have one win of note...Wichita State and then next 2 times they played them they were crushed...also have 3 losses outside the top 100..thats crushing...and they did not pass the eye test in the MVC championship game. I think Rhody is going to win the A10 outright and A10 will get 3 that would then send Cuse out. With Gtown falling out of the top 100, Cuse now has 5 losses to plus 100 schools
Alabama falls to Kentucky and they are officially done
Rhode Island knocks off Davidson to reach the A10 final...are they in without that win? Quite possibly...will Cuse be the one knocked out.
Lunardi now has URI in and USC out!
Rhode Island knocks off Davidson to reach the A10 final...are they in without that win? Quite possibly...will Cuse be the one knocked out.
Lunardi now has URI in and USC out!
Texas Arlington got bounced in the Sun Belt tourney by 21 points in the final They came into the day with a ridiculous rpi of 34 and finished 23-8. It was their 2nd loss to Texas State and their 5th loss outside the rpi top 150. They were 1-2 vs top 50 beating St Marys and 1-3 vs top 100
no shot for them but you see how these smaller schools manipulate the rpi
no shot for them but you see how these smaller schools manipulate the rpi
Vcu has some interesting hair.
Possible URI in provided they don't get blown out?
I am rooting for bid thief to hopefully take out CUSE, but we are running out. UCONN is our last chance and...
A. How can u root for them
B. Team doesn't have guts
Possible URI in provided they don't get blown out?
I am rooting for bid thief to hopefully take out CUSE, but we are running out. UCONN is our last chance and...
A. How can u root for them
B. Team doesn't have guts
Hurley made a good choice to stay...he was confident in that group he was bringing back. I wouldnt lock them in yet...but its 60/40 they go
Middle Tennessee State is the last chance in CUSA....they play Marshall tonight
VCU averted the upset to Richmond which really would have made things interesting.
VCU now a lock if they were not already.
Vandy falls to Arky, looked worn out. Still look good despite 19-15 record, should become the first school ever to make the tournament with that many losses.
Updated pecking order....
IN
1. Marquette
2. Vanderbilt
3. USC
4. Wake Forest
5. Providence
6. Kansas State
7. Rhode Island
OUT
8. Syracuse
9. Illinois State
10. California
11. Indiana
12. Iowa
13. Illinois
14. Monmouth
15. Texas Arlington
16. TCU
17. Georgia
18. Alabama
VCU now a lock if they were not already.
Vandy falls to Arky, looked worn out. Still look good despite 19-15 record, should become the first school ever to make the tournament with that many losses.
Updated pecking order....
IN
1. Marquette
2. Vanderbilt
3. USC
4. Wake Forest
5. Providence
6. Kansas State
7. Rhode Island
OUT
8. Syracuse
9. Illinois State
10. California
11. Indiana
12. Iowa
13. Illinois
14. Monmouth
15. Texas Arlington
16. TCU
17. Georgia
18. Alabama
Is it possible the committee puts a line in the sand at 15 and keeps Vandy and Cuse out and slips S. Ill in?
OR if URI gets blown out
CUSE and VANDY in?
Will be interesting. Looked at PC, tough to eject them.
OR if URI gets blown out
CUSE and VANDY in?
Will be interesting. Looked at PC, tough to eject them.
the guy was interviewed on CBSSports tv yesterday and said no that there is line they will not cross with losses. I do not see how Vandy can be kept out...Cuse only has 14 but 5 losses to plus 100. The only reason they are getting in would be because some ACC guy is on the committee and because of the Boheim factor...also putting them in the first 4 will guarantee big ratings...right now the matchups of Wake-URI, PC-KSU are snoozers....but say URI wins the autobid, they will not play in the play ins so USC-Cuse and Wake-KSU/PC do sound like better matchups
Yes PC is tough to eject but they also have 3 bad losses...and a loss worse than Cuse, to De Paul. I would be very concerned if I were them and URI wins the A10. It means PC would battle it out with USC, Wake, K State, Cuse for that last spot with one of them not making it
Yes PC is tough to eject but they also have 3 bad losses...and a loss worse than Cuse, to De Paul. I would be very concerned if I were them and URI wins the A10. It means PC would battle it out with USC, Wake, K State, Cuse for that last spot with one of them not making it
I think URI is getting in either way.
Lunardi has USC out...their profile is flimsy..they do have wins over UCLA and SMU...those are big wins.....24-9....I mean if you are from a power 6 conference and cannot get in with a record like that.
Palm has USC in and Cuse out.
I fear that Duke winning the ACC could help land Cuse in....Palm somehow now has Duke the 1 seed...wow., were they the 5 seed in the ACC tourney??
very tough call for that last spot. I am saying it here I am not extremely confident....NCAA likes throw one head scratching curveball to get people talking and it might be by tossing USC for Syracuse...would make for better ratings to have Cuse in on first four night
getting my field together in a bit...almost want to throw darts for that last spot.
Lunardi has USC out...their profile is flimsy..they do have wins over UCLA and SMU...those are big wins.....24-9....I mean if you are from a power 6 conference and cannot get in with a record like that.
Palm has USC in and Cuse out.
I fear that Duke winning the ACC could help land Cuse in....Palm somehow now has Duke the 1 seed...wow., were they the 5 seed in the ACC tourney??
very tough call for that last spot. I am saying it here I am not extremely confident....NCAA likes throw one head scratching curveball to get people talking and it might be by tossing USC for Syracuse...would make for better ratings to have Cuse in on first four night
getting my field together in a bit...almost want to throw darts for that last spot.
I have USC in unless Rhode Island holds on to win the A-10....I don't see any way Cuse is out, with Duke winning the ACC title, that strengthens their resume....To me it's URI vs USC right now.....
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