Cliff Offensive Regression

[mb5789]

Watching Cliff this year, I kept getting the feeling that he hasn't looked nearly as good as he did on offense as he did last season. Particularly around the rim and in the mid-range, as none of us really expected him to have developed a knockdown outside shot this offseason. I did a deep dive and here's what I found...

Stat comparison:

Category	2021-22	2022-23
Dunks	93/107 (86.9%)	60/67 (89.6%, up 2.7%)
At the rim (dunks, tips and layups)	131/177 (74.0%)	115/178 (64.6%, down 9.4%)
Other 2-PT attempts (jumpers, hook shots, floaters)	29/75 (38.7%)	22/80 (27.5%, down 11.2%)

I'm hoping these numbers indicate that he's playing hurt and this injury hasn't been disclosed. If not, it's pretty clear he's regressed this year as an offensive player. All these numbers are courtesy of Bart Torvik.

In fairness to Cliff, I do think he's made some big strides in certain area (FT shooting, playing smarter/fouling less, rebounding). This isn't a thread to tear him down, just wanted to put some data behind what we've been seeing.

 

[ScooterSports]

Watching Cliff this year, I kept getting the feeling that he hasn't looked nearly as good as he did on offense as he did last season. Particularly around the rim and in the mid-range, as none of us really expected him to have developed a knockdown outside shot this offseason. I did a deep dive and here's what I found...

Stat comparison:

Category	2021-22	2022-23
Dunks	93/107 (86.9%)	60/67 (89.6%, up 2.7%)
At the rim (dunks, tips and layups)	131/177 (74.0%)	115/178 (64.6%, down 9.4%)
Other 2-PT attempts (jumpers, hook shots, floaters)	29/75 (38.7%)	22/80 (27.5%, down 11.2%)

I'm hoping these numbers indicate that he's playing hurt and this injury hasn't been disclosed. If not, it's pretty clear he's regressed this year as an offensive player. All these numbers are courtesy of Bart Torvik.

In fairness to Cliff, I do think he's made some big strides in certain area (FT shooting, playing smarter/fouling less, rebounding). This isn't a thread to tear him down, just wanted to put some data behind what we've been seeing.

His percentages are down because he’s now a main focus of the offense. He wasn’t getting double teamed on post ups like he is this year. Take away two iso guys in Geo and Harper, now teams are much more focused on him.

 

[jordkap]

With Ron and Geo, teams couldn’t sag off on Cliff. That’s 100% the difference

 

[Degaz-RU]

Watching Cliff this year, I kept getting the feeling that he hasn't looked nearly as good as he did on offense as he did last season. Particularly around the rim and in the mid-range, as none of us really expected him to have developed a knockdown outside shot this offseason. I did a deep dive and here's what I found...

Stat comparison:

Category	2021-22	2022-23
Dunks	93/107 (86.9%)	60/67 (89.6%, up 2.7%)
At the rim (dunks, tips and layups)	131/177 (74.0%)	115/178 (64.6%, down 9.4%)
Other 2-PT attempts (jumpers, hook shots, floaters)	29/75 (38.7%)	22/80 (27.5%, down 11.2%)

I'm hoping these numbers indicate that he's playing hurt and this injury hasn't been disclosed. If not, it's pretty clear he's regressed this year as an offensive player. All these numbers are courtesy of Bart Torvik.

In fairness to Cliff, I do think he's made some big strides in certain area (FT shooting, playing smarter/fouling less, rebounding). This isn't a thread to tear him down, just wanted to put some data behind what we've been seeing.

This does confirm what we're seeing with our eyes.

Agree with the posters saying that the main difference is the higher frequency of double teams when Cliff gets the ball.

 

[Scangg]

Not a mod or anything but someone posted on TOS that Cliff has had a groin injury that he has been nursing since December. Said a friend attends practices and it happened at a practice FWIW

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

I like being "that guy", LOL.....what is a realistic expectation??

Here are the last 16 meaningful opponents.

OSU 16 PTS
WAKE 14 PTS
Purdue 12
MARY 4 PTS
IOWA 9 PTS
NW 4 PTS

Since OSU at the RAC, Cliff has reeled off TEN straight double figure point games, with the low being 12 and the high being 16PTS.

OSU 14
MSU 12
PSU 16
Iowa 15
MINN 13
MSU 15
IND 15
ILL 14
NEB 13
WISC 12

I am not sure we are being ready to say he's regressed....

He has made some strides and some tough shots and missed some bunnies for sure. I think if he finished another dunk a game that he seems to now miss, we are talking a range of 14 or 15 PPG, all the way up to a 19PPG scorer. And he's still learning how to play as the primary focal point of the offense.

Ten games in a row with a floor of 12 points and high of 16 points, is pretty consistent. I don't think we should be discussing lack of production with Cliff, there are other candidates we should be revisiting as we hit a 2 game stretch tonight and Sunday that Cliff is the last concern I have entering the RAC tonight.

 

[rubjk]

I like being "that guy", LOL.....what is a realistic expectation??

Here are the last 16 meaningful opponents.

OSU 16 PTS
WAKE 14 PTS
Purdue 12
MARY 4 PTS
IOWA 9 PTS
NW 4 PTS

Since OSU at the RAC, Cliff has reeled off TEN straight double figure point games, with the low being 12 and the high being 16PTS.

OSU 14
MSU 12
PSU 16
Iowa 15
MINN 13
MSU 15
IND 15
ILL 14
NEB 13
WISC 12

I am not sure we are being ready to say he's regressed....

He has made some strides and some tough shots and missed some bunnies for sure. I think if he finished another dunk a game that he seems to now miss, we are talking a range of 14 or 15 PPG, all the way up to a 19PPG scorer. And he's still learning how to play as the primary focal point of the offense.

Ten games in a row with a floor of 12 points and high of 16 points, is pretty consistent. I don't think we should be discussing lack of production with Cliff, there are other candidates we should be revisiting as we hit a 2 game stretch tonight and Sunday that Cliff is the last concern I have entering the RAC tonight.

People are comparing an athletic soccer player who took up basketball in his teens to what guys who grew up with the game like TJD and Dickinson is why. The other reason is folks act like the dunks and layups are wide open. He get hacked as much as other bugs but gets far less calls in my opinion.

 

[mb5789]

I like being "that guy", LOL.....what is a realistic expectation??

Here are the last 16 meaningful opponents.

OSU 16 PTS
WAKE 14 PTS
Purdue 12
MARY 4 PTS
IOWA 9 PTS
NW 4 PTS

Since OSU at the RAC, Cliff has reeled off TEN straight double figure point games, with the low being 12 and the high being 16PTS.

OSU 14
MSU 12
PSU 16
Iowa 15
MINN 13
MSU 15
IND 15
ILL 14
NEB 13
WISC 12

I am not sure we are being ready to say he's regressed....

He has made some strides and some tough shots and missed some bunnies for sure. I think if he finished another dunk a game that he seems to now miss, we are talking a range of 14 or 15 PPG, all the way up to a 19PPG scorer. And he's still learning how to play as the primary focal point of the offense.

Ten games in a row with a floor of 12 points and high of 16 points, is pretty consistent. I don't think we should be discussing lack of production with Cliff, there are other candidates we should be revisiting as we hit a 2 game stretch tonight and Sunday that Cliff is the last concern I have entering the RAC tonight.

Your analysis is only looking at his scoring, which includes FT shooting (which has gone up in percentage this year 63.6% from 60.2% last and attempts, 4.5 attempts per game this year from 3.1 attempts per game last year). He's also averaging over 2 more FG attempts this year (10.3 this year, 8.1 last year).

He's taking more shots, taking more FTs but is a lot less efficient than last year.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

IIRC his dunk #'s were very low during the OOC part of this year's schedule.

 

[Scangg]

I like being "that guy", LOL.....what is a realistic expectation??

Here are the last 16 meaningful opponents.

OSU 16 PTS
WAKE 14 PTS
Purdue 12
MARY 4 PTS
IOWA 9 PTS
NW 4 PTS

Since OSU at the RAC, Cliff has reeled off TEN straight double figure point games, with the low being 12 and the high being 16PTS.

OSU 14
MSU 12
PSU 16
Iowa 15
MINN 13
MSU 15
IND 15
ILL 14
NEB 13
WISC 12

I am not sure we are being ready to say he's regressed....

He has made some strides and some tough shots and missed some bunnies for sure. I think if he finished another dunk a game that he seems to now miss, we are talking a range of 14 or 15 PPG, all the way up to a 19PPG scorer. And he's still learning how to play as the primary focal point of the offense.

Ten games in a row with a floor of 12 points and high of 16 points, is pretty consistent. I don't think we should be discussing lack of production with Cliff, there are other candidates we should be revisiting as we hit a 2 game stretch tonight and Sunday that Cliff is the last concern I have entering the RAC tonight.

His dunk percentage is actually higher this year per OP. I think this actually may be due to attempting less crazy dunks with him not being 100%

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Since Purdue on the road....

39 out of 55 from the FT line.....70.9%

I don't know anyone would have asked for more hard work put into his game, than Cliff has shown in the last 2 years.

When you factor in the minutes per game at around 34 to 35 per game, this might be an all time strange place to start asking questions about "regression ".

 

[Degaz-RU]

Since Purdue on the road....

39 out of 55 from the FT line.....70.9%

I don't know anyone would have asked for more hard work put into his game, than Cliff has shown in the last 2 years.

When you factor in the minutes per game at around 34 to 35 per game, this might be an all time strange place to start asking questions about "regression ".

Well, he has higher USAGE, which accounts for higher ppg average, but as others have said, he is much less efficient, and frankly, some of his shots look god-awful.

But he's a warrior, and our team goes into the toilet most times when he's not on the court. I just think we expected him to "look" better with his offensive moves this year, and he really hasn't.

 

[Scangg]

Cliff has flashed some good moves occasionally but has too many really poor looking attempts which is where the criticism comes from

We need to do a better job of getting him the ball in better position to score

 

[RUJMM78]

Cliff and Cam are expected to be the high scorers similar to Baker and Harper last season.The problems this season offensively are caused by imjuries ,lack of bench scoring and inconsistent scoring from the starters.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

The only way to increase Cliff and his efficiency, is to get Mulcahy on track and attacking the basket. Every player is connected to the others, in terms of shot selection, shot availability and where you get the ball.

I am pretty certain that if and when we give Simpson more opportunities to drive and create, Cliffs effectiveness will jump up. It is very difficult to help Cliff become more efficient, when Mulcahy drifts into the lane, without a plan or decision on what to do with the ball, then stops, looks for an angle or help, when a quick floater, could go in, OR allow Cliff to gather the offensive rebound and get a put back.

 

[RutgersClassof2004]

Cliff has flashed some good moves occasionally but has too many really poor looking attempts which is where the criticism comes from

We need to do a better job of getting him the ball in better position to score

Yes. Giving him ball 15+ feet from basketball is not helpful.

 

[RutgersClassof2004]

The only way to increase Cliff and his efficiency, is to get Mulcahy on track and attacking the basket. Every player is connected to the others, in terms of shot selection, shot availability and where you get the ball.

I am pretty certain that if and when we give Simpson more opportunities to drive and create, Cliffs effectiveness will jump up. It is very difficult to help Cliff become more efficient, when Mulcahy drifts into the lane, without a plan or decision on what to do with the ball, then stops, looks for an angle or help, when a quick floater, could go in, OR allow Cliff to gather the offensive rebound and get a put back.

This is also correct. It's mostly up to Paul at this stage.

 

[needmorecowbell]

Watching Cliff this year, I kept getting the feeling that he hasn't looked nearly as good as he did on offense as he did last season. Particularly around the rim and in the mid-range, as none of us really expected him to have developed a knockdown outside shot this offseason. I did a deep dive and here's what I found...

Stat comparison:

Category	2021-22	2022-23
Dunks	93/107 (86.9%)	60/67 (89.6%, up 2.7%)
At the rim (dunks, tips and layups)	131/177 (74.0%)	115/178 (64.6%, down 9.4%)
Other 2-PT attempts (jumpers, hook shots, floaters)	29/75 (38.7%)	22/80 (27.5%, down 11.2%)

I'm hoping these numbers indicate that he's playing hurt and this injury hasn't been disclosed. If not, it's pretty clear he's regressed this year as an offensive player. All these numbers are courtesy of Bart Torvik.

In fairness to Cliff, I do think he's made some big strides in certain area (FT shooting, playing smarter/fouling less, rebounding). This isn't a thread to tear him down, just wanted to put some data behind what we've been seeing.

There are additional factors to consider. Last year, Cliff was the 3rd option at best behind Geo and Ron and some nights he was the 4th and 5th option. No one was setting the game plan around stopping Cliff. Now Cliff is #1 on the game plan for opposing teams. He is seeing a ton of double teams which has forced Cliff into more difficult shots. Cliff is a much better player than he was last year.

 

[Ray6232010]

Watching Cliff this year, I kept getting the feeling that he hasn't looked nearly as good as he did on offense as he did last season. Particularly around the rim and in the mid-range, as none of us really expected him to have developed a knockdown outside shot this offseason. I did a deep dive and here's what I found...

Stat comparison:

Category	2021-22	2022-23
Dunks	93/107 (86.9%)	60/67 (89.6%, up 2.7%)
At the rim (dunks, tips and layups)	131/177 (74.0%)	115/178 (64.6%, down 9.4%)
Other 2-PT attempts (jumpers, hook shots, floaters)	29/75 (38.7%)	22/80 (27.5%, down 11.2%)

I'm hoping these numbers indicate that he's playing hurt and this injury hasn't been disclosed. If not, it's pretty clear he's regressed this year as an offensive player. All these numbers are courtesy of Bart Torvik.

In fairness to Cliff, I do think he's made some big strides in certain area (FT shooting, playing smarter/fouling less, rebounding). This isn't a thread to tear him down, just wanted to put some data behind what we've been seeing.

He is what he is that was never an offensive game. He'll always be a shot blocker and run the floor type player AKA garbage man

 

[zebnatto]

Cliff has flashed some good moves occasionally but has too many really poor looking attempts which is where the criticism comes from

We need to do a better job of getting him the ball in better position to score

Also about Cliff establishing good position. But Cliff has a very limited range of what constitutes good position.

 

[Ruthinking]

His percentages are down because he’s now a main focus of the offense. He wasn’t getting double teamed on post ups like he is this year. Take away two iso guys in Geo and Harper, now teams are much more focused on him.

Why don't we (the team and Cliff) have a better plan for the double team that Cliff is getting. There's a man open somewhere, why can't we plan for the double team and overcome it better. We look a bit unprepared to react to the double team.

 

[richthedentist]

Look at the last defensive series against Wisconson he altered the layup and then had the athleticism to get out and block the 3 point shot that is not the moves and play of anyone who is injured

 

[Kbee3]

Look at the last defensive series against Wisconson he altered the layup and then had the athleticism to get out and block the 3 point shot that is not the moves and play of anyone who is injured

How many guys can do that ?

 

[Scangg]

Look at the last defensive series against Wisconson he altered the layup and then had the athleticism to get out and block the 3 point shot that is not the moves and play of anyone who is injured

It's certainly possible Cliff could do that at less than 100%

This is like the "Cliff dunked he's not hurt" arguments

 

[Ruthinking]

Look at the last defensive series against Wisconson he altered the layup and then had the athleticism to get out and block the 3 point shot that is not the moves and play of anyone who is injured

That defensive play by Cliff is one of the more remarkable plays over the past 5 years. Right up there with Caleb's block against OSU and Jacob Young's intercepted cross court pass against ???

(our record should be 10-6....still pissed)

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Cliff is definitely getting double-teamed more this season. As other folks noted the absence of Geo and RHJ allows teams to focus more on Cliff and hedge in the paint.

 

[ScooterSports]

Why don't we (the team and Cliff) have a better plan for the double team that Cliff is getting. There's a man open somewhere, why can't we plan for the double team and overcome it better. We look a bit unprepared to react to the double team.

It is really annoying. I’ve always thought what they should do is have whoever’s defender is coming off for the double go to the wing or corner on the same side as Cliff is posting up on. Gives Cliff an easy pass. It seems like everytime Cliff gets doubled everyone is on the other side of the court making it a lot more difficult to pass out of.

 

[Scangg]

It is really annoying. I’ve always thought what they should do is have whoever’s defender is coming off for the double go to the wing or corner on the same side as Cliff is posting up on. Gives Cliff an easy pass. It seems like everytime Cliff gets doubled everyone is on the other side of the court making it a lot more difficult to pass out of.

We see a cutter from the weak side but Cliff tends to force that pass whether it's there or not

 

[LeapinLou]

As I read this thread, two thoughts come to mind.
1. Cliff, just like everyone else on the planet, is not perfect at his job.
2. We would be completely and totally screwed without him.

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

It's certainly possible Cliff could do that at less than 100%

This is like the "Cliff dunked he's not hurt" arguments

Agree it's hard to say if a 100% Cliff doesn't get there a step faster and swats that last second Wisky shot into the stands...

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

Wouldn't say regressed. He's more consistent on D. The offensive game hasn't progressed as much as we'd hoped for

 

[RedChucken123]

We need to allow him to repost when he gets the ball. When he gets it and gets doubled, he forces the pass to the cutter, tries for the contested offensive move or occasionally passes the ball out and never get it right back. I’d like to see us try letting him repost. It might open up some things, if we have them scrambling to double again.

 

[billgumpper]

I like being "that guy", LOL.....what is a realistic expectation??

Here are the last 16 meaningful opponents.

OSU 16 PTS
WAKE 14 PTS
Purdue 12
MARY 4 PTS
IOWA 9 PTS
NW 4 PTS

Since OSU at the RAC, Cliff has reeled off TEN straight double figure point games, with the low being 12 and the high being 16PTS.

OSU 14
MSU 12
PSU 16
Iowa 15
MINN 13
MSU 15
IND 15
ILL 14
NEB 13
WISC 12

I am not sure we are being ready to say he's regressed....

He has made some strides and some tough shots and missed some bunnies for sure. I think if he finished another dunk a game that he seems to now miss, we are talking a range of 14 or 15 PPG, all the way up to a 19PPG scorer. And he's still learning how to play as the primary focal point of the offense.

Ten games in a row with a floor of 12 points and high of 16 points, is pretty consistent. I don't think we should be discussing lack of production with Cliff, there are other candidates we should be revisiting as we hit a 2 game stretch tonight and Sunday that Cliff is the last concern I have entering the RAC tonight.

Because he is still at the point where is it isn't a dunk or put back, he struggles to score.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

I think it is the DEFENSE he faces now AND the need to score because others are failing to do so. He takes some very weird shots. Last year and prior defenses had Harper and Geo to target first.

He neds to stop the three attempts and not even receive the ball above the arc at all. And he needs to know the spots he can easily score from.. spots on the floor.. and stop taking what the defense gives him.. going under the backboard for example. Work harder without the ball to receive the ball in a good spot for him. And, to my way of thinking but not actually being a coach or Cliff.. I think his best spots are slightly outside where he might delay a doubleteam enough for one bounce to cross the lane and take a shot. I think his speed and quickness compared to other bigs should allow him to elevate over any help from the weakside after beating his man. And if he cannot, he should be facing teh Rutgers player whose man just left him to come help.. easy pass.

If Cliff and the team can properly adjust to what defense throw at Cliff he can end up with a few TRIPLE-DOUBLES

 

[The RUT]

He’s clearly banged up and/or dealing with a nagging injury.

December timeline sounds about right, I’ve stated numerous times here he hasn’t been running well since the Hall game.

 

[bethlehemfan]

I don’t think he’s regressed. About half the fg percentage decline is more threes. He’s getting more attention. He is getting more offensive rebounds more attempts more assists. He’s been asked to do a little more so there’s going to be an adjustment.

 

[mb5789]

I don’t think he’s regressed. About half the fg percentage decline is more threes. He’s getting more attention. He is getting more offensive rebounds more attempts more assists. He’s been asked to do a little more so there’s going to be an adjustment.

The original post debunks this with data, it doesn’t even include 3 pointers in the dataset

 

[bethlehemfan]

The original post debunks this with data, it doesn’t even include 3 pointers in the dataset

Fair enough. I see you segmented just the two pointers and it wasn’t half anyway. In any event he’s taking more shots getting more attention and he’s being asked to do more. I do think he may be hurting a little. He doesn’t look as explosive at times. I don’t agree that he’s regressed though.

 

[ScarletKid2008]

I've been noticing this as well. My own personal thoughts are:

1. I think Pike likely promised Cliff a more prominent role and more freedom on offense. I would even bet that Pike gave Cliff a green light to attempt one 3pointer per game. Part of this is probably managing a potential NBA prospect and managing the feedback from him that our program is giving him the freedom to develop offensively. Kind of basically avoiding negative recruiting for the higher end talent.

2. To point #1, Cliff playing in the post was clearly an offensive strategy going into this season. But it seems like Cliff has very limited moves to get himself good looks or to shake a defender. Almost all his post moves are very very basic moves which don't fool defenders and then cliff just uses his length to get the mini hook shots off. Which leads to 3

3. Cliff hasn't mastered a soft touch around the rim. none at all actually. The hook shots are tough to get that soft touch. He needs to add more moves and style shots to his bag to increase his FG% around the rim without always dunking the ball. It's all about foot work, body movement, pump fakes to get a good angle and keep the defender off balance so that every shot isn't going over the top of a big.

In summary - Cliff has to develop better footwork, expand his bag of moves in the post, and develop different styles shots around the rim beyond the hook shot. Cliff has done a great job of improving his free throws (thats been huge) and his mid range jumper should be utilized more often (and replace even the thought of him taking a 3)

 

[billgumpper]

His dunk percentage is actually higher this year per OP. I think this actually may be due to attempting less crazy dunks with him not being 100%

Keep making excuses with the Cliff is hurt narrative. He wasnt hurt playing D at the end of the Wisc game though was he.