Daily Tracking the NET: now 102
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
RU moved up to 74 from previous NET of 96.
SHU drops from 82 to 98.
SHU drops from 82 to 98.
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I worry SHU win becomes a Quad 3 win by seasons end. They’re not very good. I see them with 13-15 wins total. They will be near the bottom of Big East with Depaul and Georgetown and maybe Xavier
I cant subscribe to this. Obviously would me it a tougher climb. I like bac’s math.
12-8 B1G lose to MSU
11-9 B1G beat MSU
I buy that…but a Mississippi statw win give us at least a solid 9-2 OOC…that the committee can’t say, “they messed up OOC”
9-2
11-9
20-11 …lock it for the Ncaa
Lot harder to go 11-9 than 12-8 in big ten play, especially when we are 0-1 at the RAC in league play alrady
I was glad to see that. Before our back to back losses, RU had risen to 53 before we were blown out in both games.
Well, that sucks. They have two lower-division teams coming up, then a test at Delaware where barttorvik only has them as 0.4 pt favorites and a 51% chance of winning.
Looks like foul trouble against St. Joe's for Pierce, who exited with 5 fouls and 26 minutes. Depth is a concern with them. Hopefully their reserves get a ton of time over the next two non-D1 games.
Rutgers 75 today.
Princeton went from 11 to 21.
Princeton went from 11 to 21.
Its quite possible RU will end up with 7 Q4 wins...do not like that at all. LIU at 340 and Stonehill at 358 are just really bad scheduling by Pike and those two horrid schools while they should give the freshmen some good minutes are not the kind of games where you can glean anything about what will happen in January. Current non conference sos is 180 and while RU will get a big bump from Mississippi State, the last 2 turds will torpedo it past 200 but it will overall likely end up being better than last years 300 or so, baby steps
Mississippi State is the prize right now since Seton Hall isnt going to be considered a quality win. Their NET is 30 and its an opportunity for a Quad 1 win. Its unfortunate they have that terrible blemish to Southern that likely dinged their NET at least 10 spots.
Big 10 has slid back up to #2 in conferences so looks like they and SEC are very close and may do a back and forth
Mississippi State is the prize right now since Seton Hall isnt going to be considered a quality win. Their NET is 30 and its an opportunity for a Quad 1 win. Its unfortunate they have that terrible blemish to Southern that likely dinged their NET at least 10 spots.
Big 10 has slid back up to #2 in conferences so looks like they and SEC are very close and may do a back and forth
If Rutgers gets to 20 wins, I think we make the tournament. A Miss State win would be huge and pretty important for the OOC resume. I think Miss State win and 11-9 makes us almost locks.
Yeah I really hate the Stonehill and LIU games (swapping out the Central Connecticuts). I’m starting to come around to the rest of Pike’s scheduling more but these games need to disappear from the schedule. Howard and Bryant types are Q4 but at least those teams have a few decent players who can make us pay for laziness and the like.
The minutes the frosh get against LIU could be counter productive. I’ve seen it happen with my little guys. Play a garbage opponent and suddenly they think they can drive past 3 defenders. Things come crashing back to earth as soon as they play a halfway decent team. Not the same obviously - but I’m somewhat concerned about some of this effect and the possible carry over to Miss State.
I think around Christmas alot of schools do schedule some weaker schools but I mean come on Steve. These are 85-45 type games
Get Misssissippi State and somehow get to 11-9 and 20-11 and thats tourney right there
More convinced than ever that by and large conference tourney performance will not matter all that much.
Get Misssissippi State and somehow get to 11-9 and 20-11 and thats tourney right there
More convinced than ever that by and large conference tourney performance will not matter all that much.
Not than I am a fan of playing a small school on a neutral court but I would play a Bryant or St Peters or even a Drexel at a neutral site like Trenton or MSG because it would flip these games to Q3 but equally important give RU an extra road/neutral win which is always important to have.
Yeah and not to mention the extra experience of staying composed away from home. There’s just no value for us at all in playing the next game. Whoever lights up the box score is just padding their stats. Totally meaningless. LIU doesn’t have a single player who would play ahead of Chol on our roster.
I don't think it is as much about the 20 wins or 19 wins.....it comes down to margin of wins and defeats.
We had too many squeaker that we won last year and got put away by 9 to 10 points, way too many times last year in the B1G. We need to cut the loss margins down.
I also think we need to not just defeat Mississippi State, but a 6 to 10 point win, would go much further.
At Ohio State and at Iowa in early January, look like opportunities to solidify things. I an confident that we can shoot the ball well from 3. Making 10 3s, doesn't seem impossible like years before.
We had too many squeaker that we won last year and got put away by 9 to 10 points, way too many times last year in the B1G. We need to cut the loss margins down.
I also think we need to not just defeat Mississippi State, but a 6 to 10 point win, would go much further.
At Ohio State and at Iowa in early January, look like opportunities to solidify things. I an confident that we can shoot the ball well from 3. Making 10 3s, doesn't seem impossible like years before.
Even Monmouth, FDU, NJIT, would be preferable and would add some NJ interest.
100%. If you’re going to play bum teams at least make it local teams
no...NJ has nothing to do with it and no one really cares about playing those teams
yeah a 20 point win would be pretty big dividends....or any Big 10 road win by that margin
its not really creating any juice...these schools are not even bringing fans anymore like they used to.
The bart spread is -24. We need to beat LIU by 30+ on Saturday.
Unfortunately you may be right here, which is stupid.
I really wish the NCAA would use a more WAB or "wins above bubble".
Scoring margin matters in determining how good your opponent is, but when it comes to your resume there is only 2 outcomes (W or L).
If RU beats LIU they get +.02
If RU loses to LIU they get -.98
If RU wins at OSU they get .65
If RU loses at OSU they get -.35
| Sat 12-16 | H | 356 (Ⅳ) | LIU Brooklyn | -23.7, 80-57 | 98% | .02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sat 12-23 | N | 29 (I) | Mississippi St. | +3.8, 65-61 | 33% | .57 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sat 12-30 | H | 351 (Ⅳ) | Stonehill | -22.8, 80-57 | 98% | .02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Wed 1-03 | A | 27 (I-A) | • | Ohio St. | +7.6, 70-63 | 21% | .65 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Sat 1-06 | A | 67 (I) | • | Iowa | +3.9, 76-72 | 35% | .48 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Tue 1-09 | H | 60 (Ⅲ) | • | Indiana | -2.9, 69-66 | 62% | .35 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Sun 1-14 | A | 21 (Ⅱ) | • | Michigan St. | +7.6, 66-59 | 20% | .67 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Wed 1-17 | H | 42 (Ⅱ) | • | Nebraska | -0.7, 68-67 | 53% | .44 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Sun 1-21 | A | 25 (I-A) | • | Illinois | +7.9, 72-64 | 21% | .65 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Sun 1-28 | H | 1 (I-A) | • | Purdue | +8.3, 72-64 | 20% | .79 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Wed 1-31 | H | 121 (Ⅲ) | • | Penn St. | -7.6, 73-65 | 78% | .20 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Sat 2-03 | A | 50 (I) | • | Michigan | +5.3, 70-65 | 29% | .55 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Tue 2-06 | A | 77 (Ⅲ) | • | Maryland | +2.7, 63-60 | 38% | .45 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Sat 2-10 | H | 26 (I) | • | Wisconsin | +0.7, 64-63 | 47% | .51 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Thu 2-15 | H | 43 (Ⅱ) | • | Northwestern | -0.8, 63-62 | 54% | .44 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Sun 2-18 | A | 95 (Ⅱ) | • | Minnesota | +1.4, 66-65 | 44% | .39 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Thu 2-22 | A | 1 (I-A) | • | Purdue | +15.4, 76-61 | 7% | .87 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Sun 2-25 | H | 77 (Ⅳ) | • | Maryland | -3.7, 64-60 | 67% | .31 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Thu 2-29 | H | 50 (Ⅱ) | • | Michigan | -1.7, 69-67 | 57% | .40 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Sun 3-03 | A | 42 (I) | • | Nebraska | +6.3, 71-64 | 25% | .59 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Thu 3-07 | A | 26 (I-A) | • | Wisconsin | +7.3, 67-60 | 21% | .65 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Sun 3-10 | H | 27 (Ⅱ) | • | Ohio St. | +0.7, 67-66 | 47% | .50 |
Last year if you swapped North Texas and Pitt the at large teams were all the top WAB.
#1 thru #50 in WAB all made NCAAs except #40 North Texas.
#54 was only team outside top 50 that got a bid.
RU was #66 with -1.0
#50 Iowa was .3
#51 OK State was .1 (and didnt get in)
#54 Pitt was -.3
#40 North Texas was +1.1
#1 thru #50 in WAB all made NCAAs except #40 North Texas.
#54 was only team outside top 50 that got a bid.
RU was #66 with -1.0
#50 Iowa was .3
#51 OK State was .1 (and didnt get in)
#54 Pitt was -.3
#40 North Texas was +1.1
Interesting. How come I've never heard of WAB until now? Seems like a good metric.
anything less than 30 is a failure, they are that bad
So sounds like the committee IS using WAB? Even if "by accident"? Not sure if I'm following correctly ha
The WAB is probably something calculated, but in my own mind, it comes down to watching a team 5 to 12 times and asking yourself, is this a NCAA caliber team??
98 times out of 100, fans know what is and what isn't. The 2% variance accounts for nonsense like some absurd overseeding for the WCC and Mountain West conference.
If you are RU, to eliminate that "eye-test " concern, you actually do have to bury Long Island, Stonehill......and then when no one is kinda actually watching 2 days before the holidays, we have to handle Mississippi State and hope Mississippi State moves forward and wins 20+ games.
The other factor that matters to the NCAA committee, that kinda gets baked into the metric WAB, is are you visibly appealing when I watch you play??
RU has more up tempo and exciting players to go to this year.....specifically Gavin Griffiths, JMike Davis and Cliff erasing shots and dunking the basketball
When a team has a defined strength and specifically some players that stand out as shooters, driving and scoring (Gavin, Noah and Davis) it allows a matchup in the committee room that can work.
All RU needs to do is build on Saturday night and continue to play hard on both ends. If anything was more revealing into mid to late January and into February last season, was RU with a shorter bench, expending tons of minutes into their top 5 to 7 players.
Having a limited bench, also matters. We are developing depth this year, I think RU has 9 players it can go to and if Ogbole can get healthy, it may be 9.5 players or 10 legitimate options.
98 times out of 100, fans know what is and what isn't. The 2% variance accounts for nonsense like some absurd overseeding for the WCC and Mountain West conference.
If you are RU, to eliminate that "eye-test " concern, you actually do have to bury Long Island, Stonehill......and then when no one is kinda actually watching 2 days before the holidays, we have to handle Mississippi State and hope Mississippi State moves forward and wins 20+ games.
The other factor that matters to the NCAA committee, that kinda gets baked into the metric WAB, is are you visibly appealing when I watch you play??
RU has more up tempo and exciting players to go to this year.....specifically Gavin Griffiths, JMike Davis and Cliff erasing shots and dunking the basketball
When a team has a defined strength and specifically some players that stand out as shooters, driving and scoring (Gavin, Noah and Davis) it allows a matchup in the committee room that can work.
All RU needs to do is build on Saturday night and continue to play hard on both ends. If anything was more revealing into mid to late January and into February last season, was RU with a shorter bench, expending tons of minutes into their top 5 to 7 players.
Having a limited bench, also matters. We are developing depth this year, I think RU has 9 players it can go to and if Ogbole can get healthy, it may be 9.5 players or 10 legitimate options.
To the core it analyzes a schedule and spits out what record a bubble team would have given that schedule.
I am 100% in disagreement with this sentiment.....and this is opinion, just like looking at art. You win a game or you lose a game. It is binary. Professional sports they rank teams by record and it is done.
Obviously schedules are ridiculously unbalanced so that can't be done here.
Boise State beat 0-9 and 352 Northwestern State by 41 and moved up from 113 to 80
beating up on cupcakes by as much as you can do wonders.
beating up on cupcakes by as much as you can do wonders.
Yeah, we need to beat these next two opponents by 40+ each. And it needs to be 90-something to 50-something, NOT 72-38.
