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GAME 28 MICHIGAN: Slip Sliding Away

So so much to unwind and apologize in advance for the length but these are the issues;
1) Disappointment dropping 2nd straight RAC game and 2 of the worst scoring outputs 45 and (43 against Seton Hall ) at home. ;
2) Pike ‘s 3 sub package and the timing of it ;
3) the Impact the loss of Mag has had on our team;
4) the Failure of the bench not just last night but all year, along with who is on the floor at the same time ;
5) The failure of the upperclassmen in this Order ; Paul , Cliff, Cam and Caleb , that has cost us wins;
6) Hyatt last night and was it an outlier?:
7) Free throws last night and was it an outlier?:
8) RAC crowd.
Diving in :
1) if you told me prior to the year we would lose 4 games at the RAC , I would not have believed you and then if you told me we would score 45 and 43 in 2 of them and have our worst offensive showing and efficiency in those games and not on the road , I would say no way. The disappointment to the fan base for the Seton Hall loss and last night’s loss to Michigan is just devastating and almost unfathomable. ;
2) Pike’s 3 sub package. I have never been a fan of the 3 at a time approach even when we were winning , and do not understand why 1 cannot be subbed 5 minutes in , then another 2-3 minutes later and the next one with 10 minutes on the half. I fully understand Coach has to develop a bench , while not wearing down our starters playing them 36+ minutes a night. But also making the sub at a predetermined time regardless of the start or the score doesn’t show a feel for that particular game. Last night we were up 13-3 , the RAC was on fire , Michigan was shook , Cliff was dominating and Hunter Dickinson was under control. In my opinion you do not sub Cliff there and wait for Hunter to be subbed like he was at the 11 minute mark. Sit Cliff when Hunter sat. Getting Caleb in the game for Oscar was fine but Cam had things going early and should have stayed in and maybe Derek comes in for Hyatt who airballed 3 threes. It cannot be proven 1 way or another but the sub pattern in the game changed momentum and gave Michigan confidence after they were shook when Hunter hit 2 immediate buckets on Dean. They were no longer shook and started playing with more confidence. My guess is that it takes them a lot longer to get there and maybe into the second half before they do. It was a bad move and backfired but for the reason that it gave Michigan hope.

3). The Impact of Mag- There is already a lengthy thread on this and there is truth on both sides. The impact of Mag is enormous , not just defensively and offensively , rebounding , intangibles , things that do not show up on a state sheet , but it has messed up the rotation and forced Coach to play guys who were riding the pine and belonged there except for stealing a minute or two . Those that deny it that claim he was the 5th option on offense Miss the boat. He was the ultimate glue guy , the head of our elite press that has turned pedestrian , helped Cliff defensively on double teams and caused turnovers and deflections , helped Cliff on the boards , where we have been getting killed recently , the turnovers in our press led to runouts and uptempo that improved our offense output as I am convinced we play better at a little uptempo than the half court struggle we are watching.
Now the other side is also true , that other teams have lost players , who are thought of more highly than Mag and have adapted and overcome . But that leads to 2 issues ; 1) Paul , Cam , Caleb and Cliff have not stepped up offensively to fill the loss not just in points , but with getting a crucial basket , or grabbing a critical defensive rebound or getting the offensive rebound for a putback or to extend the possession . Last night there were at least 2 rebounds that hit the floor. Why our whole team including the guards (Paul ) or our forwards (Oscar and Hyatt) didn’t crash the boards and only Cam did was horrendous. One rebound Cliff had to chase way out to the top of the key and couldn’t swipe at it in time and that lead a 3 point conversion on the second chance point and another huge swing in the game. 2 ) The loss of Mag has put Oscar and Dean and Aundre at times on the court for longer stretches that they deserve and there have been games that we have gotten 0 from our bench . You do not want to be playing guys that give you 0 for extended minutes against any competition but certainly against BIG 10 competition.
4) Failure of the bench. I know Pike has tried to develop a bench but the Derek, Dean , Wolf and Oscar contributions have been minimal and much less than below average. Hyatt being a 6th man before Mag’s injury was doing okay and even as a starter was okay before the goose egg last night . I think that was an outlier . But Andre as a starter makes the bench even more thin and exposed. Last night , I could not see why Oscar and Aundre were on the floor for all those minutes and gave you 3 points and almost no rebounds or steals or assists or anything. I would have gone 4 guards with Derek plus Cliff , Cam , Paul , and Caleb. Scoring was at a premium. We will be lucky to get anything out of our bench this year but if Caleb is healthy he has to get back in the starting lineup and Oscar has to sit and hope he hits a three in the 3-5 minutes he should be playing.

5) Failure of the upperclassman in Order, Paul, Cliff Cam and Caleb. Paul ‘s refusal to shoot , forcing passes for turnovers , too much dribbling which has coincided with the crisp passing and moving the ball earlier in the year disappearing and therefore a clunky offense , is totally on him. He is the main reason we are struggling and this goes to Hawk’s point along with the other starters , that they are all playing worse since Mag’s injury ( is it a coincidence or not ) . If we did not see them all play better Paul, Cliff, Caleb and even Cam then we would just say that is their limit and they are not good enough. But that is not true and we have seen it . Paul has dominated games at this level , Cliff has dominated games at this level and his low post ball handling , footwork , failure to control the ball , failure to use the backboard and to use it properly , failure to pass out of the post more than 1 time a game , has regressed. Caleb hardly ever went one on one in prior years and only when we posted him low with the size advantage. Now either because he thinks he has to either to help the team or showcase his talent it has failed. The amount of terrible turnovers he has thrown this year had to be worse than prior ones. He is hurt and I give him credit but again he could be a lot better. Our guards have to be giving us at least 10-12 a game with an occasional 14-18 points. We cannot get single digits 2-4 points or even 6 and 7 points from our starting guards. We beat MSU at MSG after Paul and Caleb had 0 at the half and we scored 19 points and looked horrible like Michigan’s second half last night , but Paul scored 17 and Caleb 9 in the second half for 26 points and they stepped up and we won. We should be getting 20-26 a game out of them. We are not and we are losing.
6). Hyatt. Aundre has been good and last night was an outlier in my opinion as he airballed both 3’s , both foul shots went in and out ( He got tight ) failed to rebound , failed to attack the glass offensively or defensively . All things he had been doing better the last 8-10 games.
7) Free Throws 5-16. 3-11. Another outlier as we have shot them pretty well most of the year , although over the last 4 or so we have missed a few surprisingly ,. Cliff’s 4 missed were long, unusually as he has been shooting better in his last 4 : Aundre ‘s 2 were in and out ( He got tight ) Paul’s missed first 2, in and out ( He got tight ) Next 2, made 1 and missed 2nd ( tight again ) .? Was the moment and the raucous crowd and the stakes too much for them. The misses clearly impacted the game , preventing a bigger first half lead after Michigan came back from 13-3 and we were at 18-12. We should have been up 10 at 22-12 and instead 18-12 turned to 18-15 when they hit a 3. It cost us a first half lead of at least 5-7 and instead we were down a couple. I was suprised and upset at half.
8) RAC Crowd - It was special with a tremendous buzz in the arena and ready to blow the roof off, It was also packed into every nook and SRO everywhere . The crowd did all it could as we were stinking up the joint for the last 28 minutes of that game. What a way to disappoint a huge great turnout . Mind boggling. Could not have played in a better atmosphere than any game over the last 4 years.
I agree with your recommendation that Simpson start in place of Hyatt and that Rutgers go with a 4 guard offense. Hyatt is better as a sixth man coming off the bench. And you're absolutely correct that Mag's absence has disrupted the rotation --a problem yet to be corrected.
 
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Then in the 2nd half, after RU fought its way back to come within 2. Cam goes out, Paul goes out. Look like an absolute Chinese fire drill trying to dribble and pass the ball. All our momentum was lost yet again and it was goodnight Irene.

You equated it to Fred Hill era. But honestly, it was the worst two minutes I can recall in 40 years of following this team. It was like they just didn't want any part of tying the score.
 
I think Pikiell mis-scouted his own roster. He thought Reiber would be a lot better. He thought Simpson could replace more of what was lost with Geo. He thought Mulcahy and McConnell could be consistent playmakers. Maybe he convinced himself Caleb's tournament performance was for real and not an outlier. But this team has no one who can take a defender off the dribble and open up the floor. That is priority #1 this off-season.
It might not be priority #1 if Cliff leaves.
 
The team is playing nervous. That explains the free throws and stupid turnovers. I don’t think many expect us to beat PSU, and that might actually be a good thing. They live and die by the 3, which can be game planned for, especially if Caleb can play 30 minutes. We’re not dead yet, and we don’t need to win out either. But Minny cannot be deemed a guaranteed victory either, and our boys know it. Every season under Pike has been a success given expectations entering the season. So far, this year is too. Until Pike fails, I’m remaining a believer.
 
The team is playing nervous. That explains the free throws and stupid turnovers. I don’t think many expect us to beat PSU, and that might actually be a good thing. They live and die by the 3, which can be game planned for, especially if Caleb can play 30 minutes. We’re not dead yet, and we don’t need to win out either. But Minny cannot be deemed a guaranteed victory either, and our boys know it. Every season under Pike has been a success given expectations entering the season. So far, this year is too. Until Pike fails, I’m remaining a believer.
Funny I was thinking the same thing around nerves and performance at home the last two. Certainly reminded me in ways of shu ie the moment being too big. Guys need to just go back to having fun out there and playin smart.
 
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