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Gavin Wimsatt/Athan Kaliakmanis Deep Dive Comparison

mb5789

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Stats​


2023Gavin Wimsatt (306 dropbacks)Athan Kaliakmanis (342 dropbacks)
Completion Percentage47.8%52.7%
Adjusted Completion Percentage58.0%66.2%
Big Time Throws7 (2.4% of throws)13 (4.2% of throws)
Drops14 (9.7%)25 (13.9%)
Average Time to Throw2.8 seconds2.98 seconds
Pressures78 (25.5% of dropbacks, 4.8% of pressures attributed to QB)112 (32.7% of dropbacks, 12.2% of pressures attributed to QB)
% of Pressures Turned into Sacks17.9%19.8%
Sacks14 (4.6% of dropbacks)22 (6.4% of dropbacks)
Scrambles18 (5.9% of dropbacks)26 (7.6% of dropbacks)
Rushing (sacks count against in CFB)122 carries (73.8% designed run rate) for 488 yards and 9 TDs74 carries (35.1% designed run rate) for 94 yards and 2 TDs
1st Downs84 (27.5% of dropbacks)97 (28.4% of dropbacks)
Turnover Worthy Plays8 (2.5% of dropbacks)16 (4.5% of dropbacks)



2022Gavin Wimsatt (166 dropbacks)Athan Kaliakmanis (131 dropbacks)
Completion Percentage44.1%54.1%
Adjusted Completion Percentage56.8%61.5%
Big Time Throws3 (2.0% of throws)4 (3.4% of throws)
Drops11 (14.7%)4 (6.3%)
Average Time to Throw2.962.85
Pressures56 (33.7% of dropbacks, 14.6% of pressures attributed to QB)49 (37.4% of dropbacks, 10.5% of pressures attributed to QB)
% of Pressures Turned into Sacks23.2%14.3%
Sacks13 (7.8% of dropbacks)7 (5.3% of dropbacks)
Scrambles7 (4.2% of dropbacks)13 (9.9% of dropbacks)
Rushing (sacks count against in CFB)40 carries (50% designed run rate) for 63 yards and 0 TDs34 carries (41.2% designed run rate) for 140 yards and 1 TD
1st Downs35 (21.1% of dropbacks)44 (33.6% of dropbacks)
Turnover Worthy Plays8 (4.6% of dropbacks)4 (2.9% of dropbacks


2023 Passing DepthGavin Wimsatt (306 dropbacks)Athan Kaliakmanis (342 dropbacks)
Deep9/32 (28.1%, 28.1% adj) for 278 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT18/44 (40.9%, 50% adj) for 510 yards, 5 TDs and 2 INTs
Intermediate34/87 (39.1%, 42.5% adj) for 553 yards, 2 TDs and 5 INTs32/79 (40.5%, 48.1% adj) for 518 yards, 6 TDs and 5 INTs
Short79/115 (68.7%, 75.7% adj) for 749 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT84/125 (67.2%, 78.4% adj) for 757 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs)
Behind LOS9/16 (56.3%, 75% adj) for 57 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT21/24 (87.5%, 91.7% adj) for 51 yards, 0 TDs and 0 INTs
2022 Passing DepthGavin Wimsatt (166 dropbacks)Athan Kaliakmanis (131 dropbacks)
Deep5/25 (25%, 30% adj) for 165 yards, 2 TDs and 4 INTs7/20 (35%, 35% adj) for 267 yards, 0 TDs and 3 INTs
Intermediate14/36 (38.9%, 47.2% adj) for 221 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs21/41 (51.2%, 56.1% adj) for 376 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs
Short30/50 (60%, 66% adj) for 330 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT26/36 (72.2%, 77.8% adj) for 265 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT
Behind LOS15/21 (71.4%, 81.0% adj) for 27 yards, 0 TDs and 0 INTs6/7 (85.7%, 85.7% adj) for 38 yards, 0 TDs and 0 INTs



Analysis​

There are a LOT of numbers and statistics laid out above, but I think it's helpful to have everything relevant laid out to compare the two players.

Let's start with possibly the most argued about topic of the board the past few weeks, completition percentage. Neither Gavin Wimsatt or Athan Kaliakmanis were particularly accurate in either 2022 or 2023. Kaliakmanis was still quite a bit more accurate than Gavin when taking into account additional factors like pressure rate and drops in 2023.

Both Athan and Gavin saw improvements in both raw completion percentage and adjusted completition percentage from 2022 to 2023. But when looking into the numbers, that should've been expected for Gavin Wimsatt for a number of reasons. He saw his pressure rate drop (33.7% to 25.5%) and his drop rate fall (14.7% to 9.7%), which was due largely due to a vastly improved OL and due to Gavin improving his pocket presense (went from 14.8% of pressure attributed to him in 2022 to just 4.8% of pressures atrributed to him in 2023, 23.2% of pressures turned into sacks in 2022 to just 17.9% in 2023, sack rate from 7.8% in 2022 to 4.6% in 2023 and his turnover worthy plays go from 4.6% to 2.5%). Gavin also went from 2.96 second time to throw to 2.8 seconds. Gavin also went from having essentially no help in the run game to the B1G leading rusher in Kyle Monangai.

Meanwhile, Athan saw his pressure rate fall slightly (37.4% to 32.7%) whille his drop rate skyrocketed (6.3% to 13.9%). Some of this can be attributed to small sample size, but it's clear the quality of pass catcher dropped for Minnesota, along with a drop in OL play. Athan saw his sack rate rise (5.3% in 2022 to 6.4% in 2023), his rate of pressures turning into sacks jump (14.3% in 2022 to 19.8% in 2023), his time to throw going from 2.85 seconds to 2.98 and his turnover-worthy play rate go from 2.9% to 4.5%. Athan also went from having a 2x B1G rushing leader (Mohamed Ibrahim) to not having a RB break 600 yards in 2023.

There's also an intangible factor that can't be overlooked. Athan led Minnesota to four 4th Q comebacks in his career to Gavin's one in the same number of starts (17). Additionally, Minnesota trusted Athan to at least attempt to make comebacks, while Rutgers essentially surrendered when down late in games. This could be more of an indictment on coaching than the player, but still is worth highlighting.
Watch this game and tell me when Gavin has ever looked this good, especially considering the circumstances (4th career start as a RS FR in a night game in Madison for a bit rivalry game)



It's pretty clear that Athan Kaliakmanis will put the ball into harm's way more than Gavin Wimsatt will. But with that, comes far more big plays. Gavin had a big-time throw rate of 2% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023 while Athan had a 3.4% big-time throw rate in 2022 and 4.2% in 2023.


Passing Depth​


Where Athan truly separates from Gavin is in the passing depth numbers, particularly the deep passing numbers. Athan was one of the best deep ball passers in the B1G in 2023 (only JJ McCarthy and Kyle McCord were better), while Gavin ranked 2nd to last (only behind Nebraska's Heinrich Haarberg). This was also a big jump for Athan from 2022 (35% adj on deep passes in 2022 to 50% adj in 2023) with a big jump in volume (20 attempts to 44) with Gavin seeing his deep passing numbers drop (30% adj to 28.1% adj) on similar volume (25 in 2022 to 32 in 2023).


Rushing​


I know a lot has been made about Gavin's rushing prowess compared to Athan. Gavin had a designed run rate of 50% (20 rushes) in 2022 and 73.8% (90 rushes) in 2023 compared to Athan's 41.2% (14 rushes) in 2022 and 35.1% (26 rushes) in 2023. Some of those runs were massive plays for Gavin (IU run and VT run come to mind), but there were far more runs the defense was set up expecting. This led to stacked boxes which hurt the run game more than helped it.

Designed runs do not extend plays or create something out of nothing, it's a play that is set up for a QB to run which limits the improvisational/big play element of most QB runs. Athan has a significantly higher scramble rate than Gavin, with a 9.9% scramble rate in 2022 and a 7.6% rate in 2023 compared to Gavin's 4.2% in 2022 and 5.9% in 2023.

Additionally, Gavin 4 of his 9 rushing TDs from 1 yard yard and 7 of 9 came from inside the 7 yard line despite having the B1G leading rusher in the backfield. Kyle Monangai only had 7 TDs on the season, with only 2 out of 7 of those TDs coming from inside the 10 yard line.


Closing​


Based on all the data, I'd say that Gavin has made significant strides in pocket presence from 2022 to 2023. He's taken far fewer sacks and has put the ball in harm's way less often than Athan. But Athan is the better QB. He's demonstrated far more ability in the passing game, both statistically and through the eye test.

Athan somehow made significant strides in many areas in 2023 despite a drastically WORSE situation from 2022 to 2023, while Gavin only made very small improvements in most areas despite a drastically BETTER situation from 2022 to 2023.

Athan makes far more big throws and is more accurate, despite less help both along the OL and pass catchers. I think if we had Athan in 2023 there's no doubt we would have had more wins, between 7-9 in my opinion. If Kirk Ciarocca wants him, I'm all for it. I trust him and Greg in their decision on this. I have little doubt that if Athan transferred here he would win an open QB competition.
 
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I was unaware of this QB's visit to Rutgers until reading the above and wondering why it was posted.
 
I'm surprised this thread does not have more replies.

Can't argue with facts.

You can “argue” to an extent. I question the straight up classifications of short / medium / long routes though. Gavin doesn’t make read adjustment plays. Every throw is predetermined for him. I’ve never watched the other guy closely but if he adjusts where he throws based on what the defense gives him, it’s an apples and oranges comparison.
 
You can “argue” to an extent. I question the straight up classifications of short / medium / long routes though. Gavin doesn’t make read adjustment plays. Every throw is predetermined for him. I’ve never watched the other guy closely but if he adjusts where he throws based on what the defense gives him, it’s an apples and oranges comparison.
I keep hearing that but I'm not so sure that's true. I think Wimsatt just makes some poor decisions. Although I thought he actually did a good job throwing the ball away when nothing was there this year.
 
Nationally - for passing offense - out of 133 teams - Rutgers was 127th and Minnesota was 126th.
So we aren't talking about much difference here really


Kaliak made top 100 passers index at 95th and Wimsatt isn't on the listing
Minnesota did have one good WR rank 54th - Daniel Jackson 831 yds 14.6 avg 8 TDs (only 1 drop).
RU had nobody in top 100 and MN having some long pass stats likely traces to a WR that can do long
Jackson was all B1G 2nd team two years in a row.
Cant look at all the micro passing stats without looking at WRs.
Other MN receivers were drop prone.

Kaliak reportedly got a public tear down from Fleck and even the family was publicly unhappy about it

 
I'm surprised this thread does not have more replies.

Can't argue with facts.
You pair this with the "pursue Temple's Warner" thread and my first take-away is go find the greatest QB coach first. You have him, it will make attracting QBs that much easier. Heck, Eli still lives in NJ. See what we can do to even get him part time QB consultant to Rutgers.. help out his adopted home state. I know he probably has some bad blood with Schiano.. (TB victory formation charge).. but if approached correctly it might work.. in fact, it may work to Eli's advantage.. that is, being a big enough man to forgive that moment in order to help his adopted state's flagship state U.
 
Unfortunately Gavin did not win us games this year and outside of Akron and Howard to open next season don’t see that changing. Hopefully Kirk can convince Athan to come to Rutgers. An instant upgrade at the position.
 
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Fortunately, Gavin won 6 games against the #2 toughest schedule in the country. This kid went 5-7 against much weaker competition. Gavin made the run game go but if he can’t improve his passing it is smart to have competition. KC said it takes 2-3 years to really learn his Offense so this move would make sense. Having 2 guys who have played in this system makes us a better team.
 
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I keep hearing that but I'm not so sure that's true. I think Wimsatt just makes some poor decisions. Although I thought he actually did a good job throwing the ball away when nothing was there this year.
There was a good segment I think while KC was at PSU showing that many of the passes thrown in this system are determined at the LOS. Of course defenses show one thing and do another just like we do. Great Defenses make it tough. We played some of the best Defenses in the country this year.
 
I've heard the argument made that Gavin's running threat was important to KM's success since the D had to use resources to account for the possibility that GW might be the ball carrier on the option.

I guess that makes sense. But all year we faced defenses stacking the box. Wouldn't it help KM at least as much to have the D drop more guys back to defend against the possibility of a pass?
 
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Fortunately, Gavin won 6 games against the #2 toughest schedule in the country. This kid went 5-7 against much weaker competition. Gavin made the run game go but if he can’t improve his passing it is smart to have competition. KC said it takes 2-3 years to really learn his Offense so this move would make sense. Having 2 guys who have played in this system makes us a better team.
No. Gavin didn’t win the 6 games.

Our defense won 6 games.

And that same defense could have won us 1 or 2 more if we didn’t have a QB with (statistically) the lowest completion percentage of 157 QBs
 
I welcome you to come to a different conclusion now that the stats have been laid out
Why don’t you compare receiving corps and use of tightends between RU and MN in light of the comparable qbs?

Your Passing Depth conclusion is supported by the stats found in the answer to question above.

GO RU
 
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One thing about college players, they change dynamically more so than in the NFL. For the next game all the stats might get thrown out the window and he hits all his passes. The college stats need 4 or 5 years to be more accurate. Wimsatt has had 1 full year thus far.
 
No. Gavin didn’t win the 6 games.

Our defense won 6 games.

And that same defense could have won us 1 or 2 more if we didn’t have a QB with (statistically) the lowest completion percentage of 157 QBs
But can’t win if you don’t score. How many TDs did the D have?
 
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Fortunately, Gavin won 6 games against the #2 toughest schedule in the country. This kid went 5-7 against much weaker competition. Gavin made the run game go but if he can’t improve his passing it is smart to have competition. KC said it takes 2-3 years to really learn his Offense so this move would make sense. Having 2 guys who have played in this system makes us a better team.
The part about the competition level may not be entirely true. They did play OSU and Michigan on crossover after all. I get that PSU and Maryland aren’t slouches (Minny got to play Illinois and Nebraska instead), but that’s partly offset in that Minny played @ UNC in non conference which is a harder game than home vs VTech. Their other 2 non-conference teams were against 6-6 MAC and Sun Belt teams which is way different (stat wise) from having an opponent like Wagner factored in on the schedule (who cares if Gavin completes 100% of throws in that game - it’s not real). Temple is much worse than these teams too. Indiana is also probably the weakest overall BIg team and Minny didn’t play them. I still agree overall that our schedule was probably a little harder - but it was a lot closer than you might think considering the divisions.
 
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Stats​


2023Gavin Wimsatt (306 dropbacks)Athan Kaliakmanis (342 dropbacks)
Completion Percentage47.8%52.7%
Adjusted Completion Percentage58.0%66.2%
Big Time Throws7 (2.4% of throws)13 (4.2% of throws)
Drops14 (9.7%)25 (13.9%)
Average Time to Throw2.8 seconds2.98 seconds
Pressures78 (25.5% of dropbacks, 4.8% of pressures attributed to QB)112 (32.7% of dropbacks, 12.2% of pressures attributed to QB)
% of Pressures Turned into Sacks17.9%19.8%
Sacks14 (4.6% of dropbacks)22 (6.4% of dropbacks)
Scrambles18 (5.9% of dropbacks)26 (7.6% of dropbacks)
Rushing (sacks count against in CFB)122 carries (73.8% designed run rate) for 488 yards and 9 TDs74 carries (35.1% designed run rate) for 94 yards and 2 TDs
1st Downs84 (27.5% of dropbacks)97 (28.4% of dropbacks)
Turnover Worthy Plays8 (2.5% of dropbacks)16 (4.5% of dropbacks)



2022Gavin Wimsatt (166 dropbacks)Athan Kaliakmanis (131 dropbacks)
Completion Percentage44.1%54.1%
Adjusted Completion Percentage56.8%61.5%
Big Time Throws3 (2.0% of throws)4 (3.4% of throws)
Drops11 (14.7%)4 (6.3%)
Average Time to Throw2.962.85
Pressures56 (33.7% of dropbacks, 14.6% of pressures attributed to QB)49 (37.4% of dropbacks, 10.5% of pressures attributed to QB)
% of Pressures Turned into Sacks23.2%14.3%
Sacks13 (7.8% of dropbacks)7 (5.3% of dropbacks)
Scrambles7 (4.2% of dropbacks)13 (9.9% of dropbacks)
Rushing (sacks count against in CFB)40 carries (50% designed run rate) for 63 yards and 0 TDs34 carries (41.2% designed run rate) for 140 yards and 1 TD
1st Downs35 (21.1% of dropbacks)44 (33.6% of dropbacks)
Turnover Worthy Plays8 (4.6% of dropbacks)4 (2.9% of dropbacks


2023 Passing DepthGavin Wimsatt (306 dropbacks)Athan Kaliakmanis (342 dropbacks)
Deep9/32 (28.1%, 28.1% adj) for 278 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT18/44 (40.9%, 50% adj) for 510 yards, 5 TDs and 2 INTs
Intermediate34/87 (39.1%, 42.5% adj) for 553 yards, 2 TDs and 5 INTs32/79 (40.5%, 48.1% adj) for 518 yards, 6 TDs and 5 INTs
Short79/115 (68.7%, 75.7% adj) for 749 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT84/125 (67.2%, 78.4% adj) for 757 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs)
Behind LOS9/16 (56.3%, 75% adj) for 57 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT21/24 (87.5%, 91.7% adj) for 51 yards, 0 TDs and 0 INTs
2022 Passing DepthGavin Wimsatt (166 dropbacks)Athan Kaliakmanis (131 dropbacks)
Deep5/25 (25%, 30% adj) for 165 yards, 2 TDs and 4 INTs7/20 (35%, 35% adj) for 267 yards, 0 TDs and 3 INTs
Intermediate14/36 (38.9%, 47.2% adj) for 221 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs21/41 (51.2%, 56.1% adj) for 376 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs
Short30/50 (60%, 66% adj) for 330 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT26/36 (72.2%, 77.8% adj) for 265 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT
Behind LOS15/21 (71.4%, 81.0% adj) for 27 yards, 0 TDs and 0 INTs6/7 (85.7%, 85.7% adj) for 38 yards, 0 TDs and 0 INTs



Analysis​

There are a LOT of numbers and statistics laid out above, but I think it's helpful to have everything relevant laid out to compare the two players.

Let's start with possibly the most argued about topic of the board the past few weeks, completition percentage. Neither Gavin Wimsatt or Athan Kaliakmanis were particularly accurate in either 2022 or 2023. Kaliakmanis was still quite a bit more accurate than Gavin when taking into account additional factors like pressure rate and drops in 2023.

Both Athan and Gavin saw improvements in both raw completion percentage and adjusted completition percentage from 2022 to 2023. But when looking into the numbers, that should've been expected for Gavin Wimsatt for a number of reasons. He saw his pressure rate drop (33.7% to 25.5%) and his drop rate fall (14.7% to 9.7%), which was due largely due to a vastly improved OL and due to Gavin improving his pocket presense (went from 14.8% of pressure attributed to him in 2022 to just 4.8% of pressures atrributed to him in 2023, 23.2% of pressures turned into sacks in 2022 to just 17.9% in 2023, sack rate from 7.8% in 2022 to 4.6% in 2023 and his turnover worthy plays go from 4.6% to 2.5%). Gavin also went from 2.96 second time to throw to 2.8 seconds. Gavin also went from having essentially no help in the run game to the B1G leading rusher in Kyle Monangai.

Meanwhile, Athan saw his pressure rate fall slightly (37.4% to 32.7%) whille his drop rate skyrocketed (6.3% to 13.9%). Some of this can be attributed to small sample size, but it's clear the quality of pass catcher dropped for Minnesota, along with a drop in OL play. Athan saw his sack rate rise (5.3% in 2022 to 6.4% in 2023), his rate of pressures turning into sacks jump (14.3% in 2022 to 19.8% in 2023), his time to throw going from 2.85 seconds to 2.98 and his turnover-worthy play rate go from 2.9% to 4.5%. Athan also went from having a 2x B1G rushing leader (Mohamed Ibrahim) to not having a RB break 600 yards in 2023.

There's also an intangible factor that can't be overlooked. Athan led Minnesota to four 4th Q comebacks in his career to Gavin's one in the same number of starts (17). Additionally, Minnesota trusted Athan to at least attempt to make comebacks, while Rutgers essentially surrendered when down late in games. This could be more of an indictment on coaching than the player, but still is worth highlighting.
Watch this game and tell me when Gavin has ever looked this good, especially considering the circumstances (4th career start as a RS FR in a night game in Madison for a bit rivalry game)



It's pretty clear that Athan Kaliakmanis will put the ball into harm's way more than Gavin Wimsatt will. But with that, comes far more big plays. Gavin had a big-time throw rate of 2% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023 while Athan had a 3.4% big-time throw rate in 2022 and 4.2% in 2023.


Passing Depth​


Where Athan truly separates from Gavin is in the passing depth numbers, particularly the deep passing numbers. Athan was one of the best deep ball passers in the B1G in 2023 (only JJ McCarthy and Kyle McCord were better), while Gavin ranked 2nd to last (only behind Nebraska's Heinrich Haarberg). This was also a big jump for Athan from 2022 (35% adj on deep passes in 2022 to 50% adj in 2023) with a big jump in volume (20 attempts to 44) with Gavin seeing his deep passing numbers drop (30% adj to 28.1% adj) on similar volume (25 in 2022 to 32 in 2023).


Rushing​


I know a lot has been made about Gavin's rushing prowess compared to Athan. Gavin had a designed run rate of 50% (20 rushes) in 2022 and 73.8% (90 rushes) in 2023 compared to Athan's 41.2% (14 rushes) in 2022 and 35.1% (26 rushes) in 2023. Some of those runs were massive plays for Gavin (IU run and VT run come to mind), but there were far more runs the defense was set up expecting. This led to stacked boxes which hurt the run game more than helped it.

Designed runs do not extend plays or create something out of nothing, it's a play that is set up for a QB to run which limits the improvisational/big play element of most QB runs. Athan has a significantly higher scramble rate than Gavin, with a 9.9% scramble rate in 2022 and a 7.6% rate in 2023 compared to Gavin's 4.2% in 2022 and 5.9% in 2023.

Additionally, Gavin 4 of his 9 rushing TDs from 1 yard yard and 7 of 9 came from inside the 7 yard line despite having the B1G leading rusher in the backfield. Kyle Monangai only had 7 TDs on the season, with only 2 out of 7 of those TDs coming from inside the 10 yard line.


Closing​


Based on all the data, I'd say that Gavin has made significant strides in pocket presence from 2022 to 2023. He's taken far fewer sacks and has put the ball in harm's way less often than Athan. But Athan is the better QB. He's demonstrated far more ability in the passing game, both statistically and through the eye test.

Athan somehow made significant strides in many areas in 2023 despite a drastically WORSE situation from 2022 to 2023, while Gavin only made very small improvements in most areas despite a drastically BETTER situation from 2022 to 2023.

Athan makes far more big throws and is more accurate, despite less help both along the OL and pass catchers. I think if we had Athan in 2023 there's no doubt we would have had more wins, between 7-9 in my opinion. If Kirk Ciarocca wants him, I'm all for it. I trust him and Greg in their decision on this. I have little doubt that if Athan transferred here he would win an open QB competition.
Mike,
Good job breaking down all the numbers. QBR has a formula that try’s to account for all offensive stats. Athan is #80 and Gavin is #81. That’s about how I see it. Both QBs are young, unfinished products and currently below average.
 
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I've heard the argument made that Gavin's running threat was important to KM's success since the D had to use resources to account for the possibility that GW might be the ball carrier on the option.

I guess that makes sense. But all year we faced defenses stacking the box. Wouldn't it help KM at least as much to have the D drop more guys back to defend against the possibility of a pass?
Let me give you this stat:

2023 rushing 1985 yds
2022 rushing 1538 yds

2023 QB rushing 488 yds
2022 QB rushing 107 yds
 
There are some things these stats don’t address. Look at what the kid looked like his last 2 outings before Kirk left. Winning at Wisconsin to close out the season on 19 of 29 passing for 319 yards, 2 TDs and no INTs was huge. Gavin has not led us to any victories like that ever. He also performed well in the bowl win against Syracuse with shared snaps with Tanner Morgan. He was 7 of 9 for 80 yards there. It’s a reasonable school of thought to consider that maybe the changes put in by the new OC just weren’t a good fit. If I’m Greg, I see how this QB closed things out with Kirk in 2022 and I’d love to secure this kid if Kirk wants him at RU in 2024. It seems like a no brainer to me.
 
No. Gavin didn’t win the 6 games.

Our defense won 6 games.

And that same defense could have won us 1 or 2 more if we didn’t have a QB with (statistically) the lowest completion percentage of 157 QBs
Bravo on your name choice. It’s perfect for you
 
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The part about the competition level may not be entirely true. They did play OSU and Michigan on crossover after all. I get that PSU and Maryland aren’t slouches (Minny got to play Illinois and Nebraska instead), but that’s partly offset in that Minny played @ UNC in non conference which is a harder game than home vs VTech. Their other 2 non-conference teams were against 6-6 MAC and Sun Belt teams which is way different (stat wise) from having an opponent like Wagner factored in on the schedule (who cares if Gavin completes 100% of throws in that game - it’s not real). Temple is much worse than these teams too. Indiana is also probably the weakest overall BIg team and Minny didn’t play them. I still agree overall that our schedule was probably a little harder - but it was a lot closer than you might think considering the divisions.
Didn’t know they played OSU and Michigan. They got hosed for one year. We’ve been getting hosed since 2014. But good point.
 
I'm surprised this thread does not have more replies.

Can't argue with facts.
This brings to mind two sayings:
1: Don't let facts get in the way of a good story.
2: People believe in their own truth.

It doesn't matter how many facts you throw at the zealots, they will continue to believe whatever they want to believe.
There are thousands of people who still believe the earth is flat...
 
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Wild you’d even suggest I was making up numbers. They mostly came from PFF’s premium stats
Maybe they are canned facts?

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I was not exactly bowled over by the not to ringing endorsement of Athan by the Gophers Rivals guy you interviewed. I'm sort of lukewarm on Athan myself, but I see this as bit of an upgrade.

Now that McCord has passed on Nebraska, does Rutgers have a snowball's chance in hell for McCord?
 
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It's pretty clear that Athan Kaliakmanis will put the ball into harm's way more than Gavin Wimsatt will. But with that, comes far more big plays.

This is really what it all comes down.
Compare all the QBs you want.

But it won't matter unless the staff is ready to live with potential harm in exchange for potential gain.

So far, that hasn't been the case.
Is it because they don't trust Gavin?
Well how is that trust built unless Gavin (or any QB) is given the opportunity to take risks in the first place?

It's the chicken or the egg:
We dont trust the QB so we can't take risks.
Well, you'll never build trust in the QB bbecause you don't let him take risks.
 
The most interest stat to me for Gavin:
2022 - 21 attempts behind the LOS
2023 - 16 attempts behind the LOS.

Despite a nearly double number of overall attempts from 2022 to 2023.
 
The most interest stat to me for Gavin:
2022 - 21 attempts behind the LOS
2023 - 16 attempts behind the LOS.

Despite a nearly double number of overall attempts from 2022 to 2023.
Had a brain fart and was thinking aren't ALL passes behind the LOS? 😬
I get it. Dump off pass to receiver behind LOS.

But why do you find that so interesting, and what does that tell you?
 
Had a brain fart and was thinking aren't ALL passes behind the LOS? 😬
I get it. Dump off pass to receiver behind LOS.

But why do you find that so interesting, and what does that tell you?

I'm far from an expert:
RB screens are usually very crowded throws with defenders around and inherently risky.
WR screen is any easy pick 6 if the CB jumps the throw.

However, RB screens are an easy way to confuse and deceive the defense.
And a WR screen is easy yardage with one missed tackle.

We didn't seem very interested in deception on offense this year in general.

Even on 3rd and super long - we would just run it up the middle instead of the usual "RB screen to just pick up some yards for a punt".


Would be interested in how often we used WR motion to get an advantage over the defense.
 
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I'm far from an expert:
RB screens are usually very crowded throws with defenders around and inherently risky.
WR screen is any easy pick 6 if the CB jumps the throw.

However, RB screens are an easy way to confuse and deceive the defense.
And a WR screen is easy yardage with one missed tackle.

We didn't seem very interested in deception on offense this year in general.

Even on 3rd and super long - we would just run it up the middle instead of the usual "RB screen to just pick up some yards for a punt".


Would be interested in how often we used WR motion to get an advantage over the defense.
I was shocked at 15/21 for behind LOS for GW. It could be PTSD memory of a few really errant passes, but my enemy-memory seemed to recall a very good number of them sailing way over the receiver.
 
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Wild you’d even suggest I was making up numbers. They mostly came from PFF’s premium stats
I was taught to question everything. What was from PFF and what wasn’t. I don’t pay for the service so I can’t tell.
 
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