Do you want a report from a forensic accountant?
Are there particular stats you are calling into question?
Gavin Wimsatt/Athan Kaliakmanis Deep Dive Comparison
- Thread starter mb5789
- Start date
Are there particular stats you are calling into question?
As a matter of fact they do. I'm not intentionally busting your chops. I'm just wondering what you are questioning.
To see the grades on PFF, need to subscribe for $24.99 for the month or $119 for the year.
But through the first 8 games, Wimsatt was PFF graded higher than Athan:
The mystery for me is how a 4* QB has offers from top passing teams/coaches but struggles with accuracy in games. Oregon, TCU and Kelly's ND offered Gavin - not exactly pass clunky teams.
They knew GW was raw but they must have seen something.
I think part of the appeal was running because in HS highlights GW romped all over the field.
If he had an opening he was gone. GW had 9 rushing TDs in 23 and might have had more but its the RU way to wait three years to take away the training wheels.
The other thing is that GV has the arm to throw long and be on target but he throws very high (INT risk).
I saw he threw too high in first practice gif I saw posted here.
He dropped a 35yd pass into the basket but the ball went into the clouds along the way.
One of the best receptions this year was from the 50 yd line to Washington near goal (vs Terps).
It landed right in the box but the announcers called pass "a moon shot" and it was.
I have a gif of that pass and another of same distance from Shedeur,
Shedeur throws a 50 yd pass relatively flat while GW arcs the heck out of it.
A lot of people can throw for 50 yds if they have a big arc.
Zipping those pass is NFL level
MOONSHOT
SHEDEUR
To begin, these aren’t “all of the data;” these are the data you have chosen to show. Next, there is a critical difference between data and analysis. Finally, there is the difference between analysis and inference. You fall down pretty much on all three of these. For example, you don’t provide a simple attempts/completions and yards gained in your facts. You don’t include wins and losses, nor strength of schedule. I suspect there is a reason for that. So let me provide some different facts, ones that I would argue most folks would be more interested in. I’m using 2023 as neither QB played a full season in 2022.
Total yards passing and rushing: Wimsatt: 2139 Kaliak (I use Kaliak here just to save on typing): 1932
Touchdowns passing and rushing: Wimsatt: 18 Kaliak: 16
Total team points scored: Wimsatt: 271 Kaliak: 242
Turnovers: Wimsatt: 10 Kaliak: 11
Team victories: Wimsatt: 6 Kaliak: 5
Bowl games: Wimsatt: 1 Kaliak: 0
This could go on. Rutgers had a harder schedule; Minnesota had for several years far higher recruiting rankings for kids who would be playing now; in games they won, Rutgers didn’t let other teams get ahead so often so didn’t have to make as many fourth quarter comebacks to win. And, btw, Kaliak’s completion percentage actually dropped, not increased, as you claim, whereas Gavin’s increased.
You set out to argue that Kaliak is better than Wimsatt. You selectively picked data that made him look better, then emphasized where he looked better, and downplayed Wimsatt’s clear areas of superiority, drawing the conclusion that you held all along.
Are my stats biased? Of course they are. That’s why I picked them. So are yours. The problem here is that there really isn’t all that much difference between them.
The reality is that Kaliak appears to be a slightly to somewhat better passer (slightly over one completion per game better when adjusted for number of attempts), and Wimsatt is a substantially better runner. Now if you want to say, “Gee, he looks a lot better on tape,” that is a different argument. I’d like to see us bring in a quality QB; I don’t see Kaliak as that guy. But hey, maybe he is. Maybe he is on an upswing. But his percentage completion is not impressive and declined from last year.
if the OP is citing PFF and asking who is better, why not use the PFF grades?
Your “stats” aren’t even correct though. Minnesota is playing in a bowl game.
Gophers Accept Invitation to Play in Quick Lane Bowl - University of Minnesota Athletics
Minnesota will face Bowling Green on Dec. 26 on ESPN
Also, wins aren’t a player statistic, they’re a team stat. And I highlighted areas that Gavin is better than Athan in my analysis as well
For sure. But in context of comparing the QBs, the competition level in 2023 was probably close enough to a wash to call it even. It’s Athan’s 2022 production that has me most intrigued. He seemed to develop game over game under Kirk.
Hey, so they did get a bowl game at 5-7. My bad. Good for them. Now care to fess up that Athan's completion rate didn't increase from 2022 to 2023?Your “stats” aren’t even correct though. Minnesota is playing in a bowl game.
Gophers Accept Invitation to Play in Quick Lane Bowl - University of Minnesota Athletics
Minnesota will face Bowling Green on Dec. 26 on ESPNgophersports.com
Also, wins aren’t a player statistic, they’re a team stat. And I highlighted areas that Gavin is better than Athan in my analysis as well
You didn't really highlight Gavin's areas of superiority; you denigrated them.
But again, maybe Athan is better than he seems right now and he'll be great. I'm not sold on him. He had a ton of really weak games this year. I'd like to think that if we are going portal, we could do better than that, especially since GS will now be getting $6.5 million. And yet, no money for a high-quality QB. Penny-wise pound-foolish.
This again?!The mystery for me is how a 4* QB has offers from top passing teams/coaches but struggles with accuracy in games. Oregon, TCU and Kelly's ND offered Gavin - not exactly pass clunky teams.
They knew GW was raw but they must have seen something.
I think part of the appeal was running because in HS highlights GW romped all over the field.
If he had an opening he was gone. GW had 9 rushing TDs in 23 and might have had more but its the RU way to wait three years to take away the training wheels.
The other thing is that GV has the arm to throw long and be on target but he throws very high (INT risk).
I saw he threw too high in first practice gif I saw posted here.
He dropped a 35yd pass into the basket but the ball went into the clouds along the way.
One of the best receptions this year was from the 50 yd line to Washington near goal (vs Terps).
It landed right in the box but the announcers called pass "a moon shot" and it was.
I have a gif of that pass and another of same distance from Shedeur,
Shedeur throws a 50 yd pass relatively flat while GW arcs the heck out of it.
A lot of people can throw for 50 yds if they have a big arc.
Zipping those pass is NFL level
MOONSHOT
SHEDEUR
Gavin throws a Go Route. You're supposed to throw it high so the receiver runs under it and if he beats the DB, there's no way for the DB to get a hand on it.
Shadeur basically just flings it in the direction of his receiver on a busted play and the receiver makes a play on it.
Two very different plays. It's doesn't prove your point at all.
Athan Kaliakmanis had the 2nd highest drop rate of any QB in the FBS this year at 13.9%. Athan had an adjusted completion percentage of 66.2%, which accounts for drops, throwaways, tipped passes, etc.
So while his raw completion percentage didn't improve in 2023 (as you pointed out), his adjusted completion percentage went from 61.5% in 2022 to 66.2% in 2023.
Gavin had an adjusted completion percentage of 56.8% in 2022 and 58.0% in 2023 (basically unchanged). 58.0% adjusted completion percentage is the lowest in the FBS by far
Agree with some of that but Gavin often throws too high.
I'm sure coaches are aware of the arced pass problem (fans often aren't).
Recall even announcers called that pass a "moon shot."
Shedeur has strongest arm in P5.
His "fling" goes 50 yds on flat feet (he never throws high arcs).
Look at Gavin's form he basically gets on his toes and chucks the ball.
If an NFL scout/coach takes one of these too based on long throws its not even close (and I think Gavin has potential for the long balls)
Arm strength isn't an issue with Gavin. Never has been. It's his accuracy and ability to read defenses.
This is the worst case of data manipulation. GW can argue that the balls into the ground are throw away and any ball that takes the WR out of bounds are throw aways. Adjust his adjusted adjusted completion is really 180%.
There's an anti Gavin agenda on this board and it has nothing to do with football. It's wild.
There's a reason he's the most scrutinized RU starting QB of all time. Shame.
ESPN's quarterback rating has Athan at 79 and Gavin at 81. Net net they are basically indistinguishable. If we are going for an upgrade, let's go for an upgrade.
BTW, Gavin had more yards per completion than Athan, which calls into doubt Athan's deep throwing prowess. And, if you gave Gavin the "adjusted" completion rate of Athan, it would have led to a whopping 1.8 more completions per game, or 22.7 yards. But when you factor in that Gavin had 33 ypg rushing, it, once again, makes these guys pretty much the same.
Look, you have your opinion; I have mine. The data are unequivocably equivocal. If Athan comes here, wins the job and goes lights out, you can call on me for an apology. If Gavin turns the corner, I'll do so for you. I'll be happy either way. Have nothing against Athan.
Fun arguing data with you.
EDIT: Do you get the adjusted completion rate from PPF? (And that's a pay for site, right? Couldn't find that stat.)
Agree with this. They're about the same depending on your preference. The fact that some people are saying Athan is definitely better must be some reason I can't quite say out loud..
With Simon gone, we need depth. Best player will start and the 2nd best player will be viewed as the next Patrick Mahomes by the fans.
Basically all the data I referenced was from PFF's premium stats, yes. Athan both threw a ton more deep and completed almost double the deeps passes Gavin did in 2023. Athan had the 3rd best adjusted completion percentage on deep passing in the B1G, only behind JJ McCarthy and Kyle McCord.
Ohhh boy, here comes Mr. White Knight accusing everyone of being racist for criticizing the play of our QB. The coaching staff must be racist too since they're bringing in competition for him huh? FOH with that nonsense
First it was Evan Simon... now Athan K. Something doesn't add up here.... it's clear people have an anti Gavin Wimsatt agenda.
People are making Gavin a scapegoat when there's plenty of other blame to go around.
Only people with no actual data have to resort to name calling to prove their point, like you just so eloquently did.
Or maybe... just maybe.... Some of us want an improvement over the least accurate QB in college football? Your conclusion that it has anything to do with race is pretty telling and troubling
Other posters (not me) have proven there's no real difference between Gavin and Athan yet you keep doubling down on the belief that Athan is significantly better than Gavin.
Forget me for a second, please read what the last few posters have written instead of manipulating data in your favor just because you have some hate of Gavin.
Sure we need an upgrade but Athan is not significantly better than Gavin. It's absolutely a coin flip. And if you can't see that, then yeah the reason you don't like him is deeper than his play on the football field.
You're retarded or insane there is no anti Gavin, all we want is someone that can actually complete a 5 yd pass and elevate our program. Apparently you're ok with mediocre
You can't be this dumb
How many QBs have made Rutgers bowl eligible since entering the B1G? 6 wins or more?
last time i checked, it takes an entire team to win 6+ games, not just a single player
Just because someone doesn't want the same QB as you doesn't make them racist. If anything, you're using his skin color as tokenism.
We all just want the best QB possible on the field at the end of the day. Who cares if they're gay, straight, black, white, christian, muslim, etc?
I'm not the only one here that thinks Mike has an agenda. If Athan was definitely better than Gavin then sign him up.
Can Athan put up the following stats?: 2.5K passer + 1K rusher + 22/7 TD:INT
If you think yes, then he should be at RU.
If you think no, then he's not that much better or worse than Gavin. It's a coin flip. But when "trusted" people like Mike continue to peddle their agenda that Athan is somehow definitely better it rubs me the wrong way.
Just going off stats it's a literal coin flip but it's being positioned here as Athan definitely better. If you can't see that then you're probably blinded.
This is a disgraceful post...please delete
Oh here comes the ringleader. Go look at yourself on the CE board... it's actually kinda funny you were triggered by this post.
No one gives a shit what color the players on the team are...PERIOD
You look like a moron for resorting to a race card and bringing this up
Ps if you want to talk dei and crt and antisemitism run rampant across our universities and high schools including Rutgers who is now under investigation I invite you to join in on the conversation there
Funny, where were you when people put the losses on him.
You keep listing stats from PFF. Can you tell us their grades for these 2 QBs?
Both QBs seem to be 500 level QBs. I don’t see the team results changing much with either.
I’m just saying they’re both average QBs. Hopefully the competition elevates them both.
Dude people have been hard on every single starting QB here since 1869. The best player on the team has always been the backup qb. Remember "Free Rettig"?
Wimsatt had the lowest completion percentage in D1 last year. He deserves criticism.
Also 80% of the team is black, do you really think the coaches have a racist agenda?
team did it despite Gav
kid can't hit 5yd passes and you think he brought us to a bowl (bowl games not a measure any longer given more than half the teams go)
you want to infer racism is why people don't like him? you sire a full on piece of shit!
that guy is full on nuts
I don't put people on ignore I disagree with, I put stupidity and stuff like his posting on ignore. He made the list
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