Don't let facts get in the way of the narrative being peddled here
Gavin Wimsatt/Athan Kaliakmanis Deep Dive Comparison
- Thread starter mb5789
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For me, the narrative for giving this kid a look is about the way he improved game over game after becoming the starter in 2022. I would not be intrigued by him if not for the way he progressed under Kirk who is now our OC. Gavin falls comparatively short here. He did not display observable improvement as a QB under Kirk. He made a few nice plays here and there but nothing more than sporadic.
I'm all for giving him a look too. We need more competition in the room. But my beef in this thread started when people were definitively saying that Athan was better which I don't believe is true, it's a coin flip.
Idk OP literally has stats and reasoning to back up his view that Kaliakmanis would be an upgrade. There's nothing wrong with disagreeing with him but to imply they must be racist is just completely unjustified and bizarre.
Again all I know is Kirk has worked with both and the coaches have analyzed this situation way way more than you me or OP. If the coaches think he is an upgrade then there is a reason for it.
His progression in 2022 is what stands out as promising. Gavin hasn’t shown this type of development. He’s had a handful of good passes in individual games and a handful of great runs, but never the kind of complete game where you’d walk away saying wow maybe he’s taken things to the next level. That’s the difference.
It doesn’t mean Athan will be better in 2024 but when you point out guys like Nova who had up and down careers - you’ll find some very good games mixed in with the Kent State clunkers. That’s where the concern with Gavin sets in. There’s a lot of data now and he still hasn’t show us that stand out potential consistently in a game. A few flash plays here and there but they are surrounded by head scratching misses in the same game.
GW absolutely took that step forward in the PSU game. He just took a big step backwards in the MD game. I don’t think anyone is arguing against bringing the kid in. Most of us are just disagreeing he will automatically be QB1.
Just stop. Not being the reason we lost the PSU game 27-6 is not what I’m talking about. We scored 6 total points and Gavin completed 10 passes for 130 yards and an INT. No TDs. 17 rush attempts for 31 yards is blah. His completion percentage was higher that game in a limited sample size but on no planet was this a stand out great performance. Come on.
The game I’m looking at for Athan as an example. 19 for 29 vs Wisconsin on the road 2022 for 319 yards and 2 TDs. No picks leading his team to victory. Gavin doesn’t have performances like that to point to.
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The stats and reasoning are slanted and are intended to portray Athan in positive light and highlight Gavin’s negatives. There’s nothing that anyone can point to that shows that the coaches think Athan is an upgrade. These are all speculative leaps by people who want to see Gavin replaced.
The biggest difference I can see is that Minnesota had a true WR1 that pulled down 57 balls. Put Athan behind our line and our receivers and he likely does not throw for as high a completion percentage. So these conclusions are based on apples and oranges comparisons.
And when you have a 5% point differential and people exaggerating the difference between the two, I can understand why Gavin supporters might be upset.
Athan ran away from Minnesota because he did not want to compete for Max Brosmer that QB job.
So if he wants to come here, let him compete for the job. Frankly, if we’re going to prioritize accuracy, AJ and Ajani are likely to be better than Gavin and Athan, though they are missing experience.
LOL. GW was out rushed by KM by 8 yds. Our O was so overmatched in that game. I remember on one play the DE beat GW to the 5 step drop.
To be clear, Gavin absolutely wasn’t the reason we lost that game. But it’s not a game you would point to and say wow - Gavin is showing real promise for the future. He’s definitely “the guy”. See Minnesota game vs Wisky in 2022. That’s the kind of performance I’m talking about. Gavin just doesn’t have showings like that to this point. He has one more opportunity against Miami.
I think what you are saying is that we should recruit that Penn State DE to be our QB? 😂
This thread jumped the shark a while ago, but this is worse than an argument about politics. What will be worse is if Gavin and Athan compete and the coaches keep flip flopping QBs. Will be an endless source of message board fodder.
I’m saying just that. To me, it was a game that showed he is making progress. Much more impressive than putting up big numbers against a mediocre D.
I'm a RutgersAl supporter but I disagree. Our OLine was better than theirs and their receivers had a 13% drop rate. OP is making the exact opposite point that Athan does better with our players around him and he backs it up with stats.
@Knight Shift as I posted earlier in this thread we need an upgrade at QB. Whether that is an improved Gavin or someone else remains to be seen.
I think Kirk wanting to bring in this guy from Minnesota is telling. Especially since he said it takes 3 years to master his offense !
Fair point. As I noted above, this thread jumped the shark. Will say this much. Athan ended the season on somewhat of a high note, going 24/44 for 196 yards against Nebraska with 1 TD/1 INT.
Maybe a useful comparison is how Gavin and Athan did against 4 solid defenses each QB played. Running is an X factor that I will leave out here:
Wisconsin:
Athan:
16/28 (57.1%) 1 TD/1 INT
Gavin:
16/35 (45.7%) 1 TD/1 INT
Advantage- Athan (Slightly)
Ohio State:
11/19 (57.9%) 0 TD/1 INT
Gavin:
10/25 (40%) 1 TD/1 INT
Advantage- None
Iowa:
Athan:
10/25 (40%) 0 TD/0 INT
Gavin:
7/18 (38.9%) 0 TD/1 INT
Advantage: Athan (slightly)
Michigan:
Athan:
5/15 (33.3%) 1 TD/2 INT
Gavin:
11/21 (52.4%) 1 TD/1 INT
Advantage: Gavin
What stands out here is Gavin's superior performance in the Michigan game, but it is a small sample size. The other 3 games are mostly indistinguishable.
Throw in the X Factor of Gavin's run threat, and one can arguably say Gavin is the better choice for a RPO QB. The fly in the ointment for a lot of people is the perception that Athan is arguably a better thrower. Is he, or did he have a better WR option that was open and ran the routes properly? Argue onward.
I think we are both RIGHT and can declare VICTORY right here and now!
I agree with you. The question to be determined is whether Athan will actually be an upgrade. It's very difficult to say that given the differences in what Athan and Gavin had to work with at their respective schools. And should Athan come here and win out, or should Gavin win out, nobody will be "right" here. It will all depend on who develops the most in the new season and who the coaches decide to screw over (sarcasm).
(I really do not care who wins out, I just want to see Rutgers win, but, but, Gavin is a very likeable young man and easy to root for, but, but, but that is not going to cloud my judgment because like all other fans, I just want Rutgers to win)
I’m sorry but I disagree. It’s hard to classify a game at QB with an INT and 2 fumble losses with no offsetting TDs as progress.
We lost 27-6 in a game where PSU dared Gavin to throw. They locked up our run game which left opportunities for some success in the air. We attempted 16 throws in the game.
We can agree to disagree. Btw, one of the fumbles was the sacked I was talking about. If you think that’s on GW, then that’s the source of our disagreement. Also, on the Int, GW read the corner blitz and the WR didn’t. WR ran into the coverage that made the int possible. Making progress is making good reads and throws. Throwing to wide open WRs isn’t making QB progress, it’s WR progress.
If we’re going back to 2022 what about RU vs MSU? We lost but Gavin had a solid day passing the ball and Monangai was a beast.
That shows we can be a balanced offense but I truly believe the staff ran the ball more this year to shorten games, keep us in games, keep the D fresher than 2022, keep guys healthy, win 6 games, go to a bowl, and allow 15 more practices for the young kids to develop.
Would we be happier going 4-8 but passing the ball more and completing more passes?
We all know the passing game needs to step up next year: maybe even next week. But I think we did exactly what we wanted to in almost every game this year and that was to keep games close going into the 4th quarter.
Let’s support the guys out on the field whoever they may be. The best players will play.
First you say Rutgers didn’t have a better rush attack. Now you are saying that it was better due to Wimsatt. I think it was better because 1) we did it against a murderers row of the top ranked defenses, who 2) knew it was coming and were stacking the box, and 3) I attribute it more to the play of our OL and Monangai. Wimsatt contribted for sure. The D had to account for him on the option. But that’s gotta be considered a wash as the Ds we face routinely stacked the box because they didn’t fear the pass, which was also attributable to Wimsatt.
not going to beat this dead horse. I hope he signs and the best QB plays.
I mean - yeah, that one was probably Gavin’s best career game. But look - 98 of his yards (and one of the TDs) were tacked on in a late Q4 drive with 3 minutes left in the game with RU down two scores. Not 100% garbage time but pretty close to it. He totaled 236 yards in that game including that late drive.
Can I vote to just pass on wanting him, in fact we need to upgrade the OC position.
It’s an opinion provided with facts, which don’t show how Athan would fared with our personnel. It would be backed up with stats if Athan played with our personnel. He didn’t, so The comparison is apples and oranges.
Minnesota had a 55 catch kid and Rutgers did not. The conclusion of how Athan would have fared with our personnel is speculative.
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Did you see the comeback this year against MSU? We lost last year 27-24 and you’re calling it garbage time. No further comments to you. Your mind is made up. Luckily you don’t coach the team I root for.
Of course it's speculative. It's speculative with every single recruit and transfer whether they will be successful. You have to go by the tape, statistics and simple reasoning.
Just like a jury in a trial, one must decide whether the conclusion is supported by the facts/evidence presented.
Much is made here of the remarkable progress AK made in 2022 once he became a starter.
His total yardage passing was:
Oct 23 175
Nov 6 137
Nov 13 64
Nov 20 87
Nov 27 319
Dec 30 80
3TD passes and 2 INTs during that stretch.
That is not remarkable progress. It's one good game.
His total yardage passing was:
Oct 23 175
Nov 6 137
Nov 13 64
Nov 20 87
Nov 27 319
Dec 30 80
3TD passes and 2 INTs during that stretch.
That is not remarkable progress. It's one good game.
Huh? We lost last year 27-21 didn’t we? On that last drive I’m talking about, we got the ball back with 3:22 left in the game down 27-14. Michigan State was playing prevent defense nursing a 13 point lead to bleed out the clock. To win that game from the 3:22 mark forward, we would have needed (in addition to the TD) to recover an onside kick AND then put the ball in the end zone again (I think we had 46 seconds at that point, on the road, and no remaining time outs). Not impossible but pretty unlikely. That’s why I say - it wasn’t 100% garbage time but it was borderline in the sense that Michigan State was playing that possession to keep us in bounds and run the clock down to secure the win.
Oh yeah - and in the 2023 game - we caught that break bringing the score to 24-13 on the fumble return for TD with 13:09 to go. Over 13 min to make up 11 points is very different from 3:22 to make up 13 points. I understand that we recovered an onside that gave us great field position, and I’m not saying that “couldn’t” have happened in 2022 - just that the odds were different. There was over 8 minutes left in the game at that point. We could’ve kicked off regular, gotten a stop and would’ve still had at least one more attempt in a game where a FG would’ve tied it. So different. Heck - we needed to play defense to hold onto our lead that’s how much time was remaining.
Solid analysis. At least the coaches agreed with you, which must have been confirmed in practices.
Tough day for Gavin, but honestly it seems like an even tougher day for quite a few posters.
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