How much better will our roster be next year?

[Degaz-RU]

Short answer to the OP is:

- If Sanders is back, our roster will be better.

- If Sanders leaves, our roster will be worse.

I do think that next year's roster OTHER THAN SANDERS is probably a slight tick better than this year's "other than Sanders" roster. I say this based on:

- Carter being a slight upgrade to Freeman due to better size, or at worst a push
- Mathis being a slight upgrade to a dinged-up Mike Williams, or at worst a push
- Johnson being a slight upgrade to Sa
- Kiss and Harper being added to the lineup
- The existing players being better versions of their 2017-18 selves

Sanders is the X Factor in the OVERALL roster analysis. If he stays, it's a no-brainer that our roster is better next year. If he leaves, I think the overall roster is slightly worse -- even though the rest of the roster is slightly better next year -- just due to how good he is.

 

[ColonelRutgers]

Pikiell mentioned last night that he sees Issa as a spark coming off the bench in the future. He also said Thiam has grown an inch to 6-10.

He said that on a good team ideally Issa would be the spark coming off the bench. Don’t think that was a prediction that it was his future role here.

 

[BoxStater]

You are significantly overating Issa's defensive abilities.

This thread is about projecting their play next season but still I think folks are underrating the difficulty of shooting over a 6’10 wing. This can be subjective but we can look at what happened in both MSU games.

1st game Izzo double-screened Thiam to death & Bridges strived but Izzo didn’t do that in the 2nd game & Thiam’s length was a problem for Bridges.

Against top competition this season, Thiam usually holds the opposing top wing/SG to their scoring average or less.

And we aren’t even privy to wingspans but I thinks it’s safe to assume that Thiam’s possible 4-6 inch length advantage makes a difference.

 

[RUChoppin]

The scouting and the numbers both say that our defense is good. So who would you say, individually, is responsible for that?

Freeman been poor on defense. Geo is average. Doucoure can't defend without fouling. Sa and Doorson can take up space.

It can't all be scheme. There have to be SOME good defenders. Corey has been mostly good. Omoruyi defends very well. And IMO Thiam does too.

I think Thiam's length helps defensively just by making it harder to get the ball to his man, and making it harder for his man to pass into the post. He's mostly done well fighting through screens and staying between his man and the basket. He doesn't do so well when he's on the block and getting backed down.

I'd say he's slightly above average, and improving.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

i will say down the stretch we mostly see 6'2'' williams at the 3.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Issa certainly a very willing defender and given his lack of lateral quickness he has done all that can be expected and more on the defensive end. Defensive rebounding is another story. He does not have a nose for the ball. You shouldn't have to hear the bench yelling at Issa to rebound.

 

[BoxStater]

i will say down the stretch we mostly see 6'2'' williams at the 3.

Which is often a mistake IMO. It’s hypothetical but it would’ve been interesting to see what would've happened if Williams would’ve started against Bridges, Rodriguez & Dakota who’d have significant height advantages and been aggressive from the start without worrying about foul trouble.

 

[RUChoppin]

i will say down the stretch we mostly see 6'2'' williams at the 3.

Hoping you're right, because that'll mean this ankle injury was again more minor than it appeared.

Edit: I think you meant down the stretch in individual games, not for the season. Can disregard that.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Which is often a mistake IMO. It’s hypothetical but it would’ve been interesting to see what would've happened if Williams would’ve started against Bridges, Rodriguez & Dakota who’d have significant height advantages and been aggressive from the start without worrying about foul trouble.

We disagree, but that is OK! i think Pikiell is not playing him enough. Going in to the season I thought Williams was our best player. This season is making that thought change. It is still my belief that Mike was the player we most couldn't afford to lose. I don't expect more than a handful of fans to agree.

 

[RUChoppin]

We disagree, but that is OK! i think Pikiell is not playing him enough. Going in to the season I thought Williams was our best player. This season is making that thought change. It is still my belief that Mike was the player we most couldn't afford to lose. I don't expect more than a handful of fans to agree.

Any of Corey/Geo/Mike were the ones we could least afford to lose, imo.

 

[BoxStater]

Issa certainly a very willing defender and given his lack of lateral quickness he has done all that can be expected and more on the defensive end. Defensive rebounding is another story. He does not have a nose for the ball. You shouldn't have to hear the bench yelling at Issa to rebound.

But you’ve brought up another issue which I think will play a role in Pike’s future success: How willing is he to be flexible with his coaching values.

Thiam has a higher rebounding average than all of Duke’s starting 5 except their 4 & 5 (Carter & Bagley). Ditto for both Purdue & Michigan.

But I don’t hear folks saying about Gary Trent Jr or Dakota Mathias, “He should be benched because he just doesn’t have a nose for the ball!”

 

[kcg88]

But you’ve brought up another issue which I think will play a role in Pike’s future success: How willing is he to be flexible with his coaching values.

Thiam has a higher rebounding average than all of Duke’s starting 5 except their 4 & 5 (Carter & Bagley). Ditto for both Purdue & Michigan.

But I don’t hear folks saying about Gary Trent Jr or Dakota Mathias, “He should be benched because he just doesn’t have a nose for the ball!”

We're not going to ever look like Duke or Xavier. Pikiell has a style, going back to his years at Stony Brook, and that's just how it is. Even the "elite" version of a Steve Pikiell team is going to be more like Cincinnati or Texas Tech, not like Duke, Xavier, or Oklahoma.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Actually Dakota Mathias is a very good comparison to show i could be wrong about Issa. i realize 6'4'' 200 vs. 6'10'' 190 makes it looks like apples and oranges.

 

[BoxStater]

We're not going to ever look like Duke or Xavier. Pikiell has a style, going back to his years at Stony Brook, and that's just how it is. Even the "elite" version of a Steve Pikiell team is going to be more like Cincinnati or Texas Tech, not like Duke, Xavier, or Oklahoma.

It’s still ditto for Cincinnati or Texas Tech this season. The big difference is those schools get more rebounding from their 4 & 5s than Rutgers.

 

[BoxStater]

Actually Dakota Mathias is a very good comparison to show i could be wrong about Issa. i realize 6'4'' 200 vs. 6'10'' 190 makes it looks like apples and oranges.

Time will tell but you brought up another interesting question:

You say at games that you keep hearing the bench scream at Issa to rebound so I wonder how often do you hear that same bench scream at Freeman to pass to an open teammate?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Jay Young, not players

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The answer to your other question is no. There are a lot of coachable players on this team. Tons of nice interactions between Pikiell and Sanders.

 

[BoxStater]

Jay Young, not players

Uh huh!
And that’s very enlightening to me. Because that would indicate to me that the coaching staff has instilled a different value for one over the other.

This ain’t Stony Brook, the talent gap in the B1G is too vast to overcome with just hard work, defense, & rebounding.

Pike must place the value of smart play, kicking out to the open shooter, ect ect on the same level & urgency as rebounding. Mind you as the starting PF, Freeman only averages 3 rebounds more than Thiam or Williams or Sanders.

But you don’t hear the bench yelling for the PF (Freeman) who is shooting poorly from the field & not rebounding well for a PF in B1G play to pass the ball & rebound more?!

Interesting

 

[Mr Magoo]

Any of Corey/Geo/Mike were the ones we could least afford to lose, imo.

So true, they are the only 3 D1 players we have that can handle the ball. Now, we are down to two, so when either Sanders or Geo is on the bench, we are at a distinct disadvantage.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I think it is normal for coaches to handle different players differently. I am Ok with it.

I don't like the slumping in chair and chucking 3s in the end of warmups when the rest of the team is huddling among themselves and then with coaches.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

I’ll address this

1.) for the last time....you do not look at points and rebounds alone to judge what you lose. It’s the quality of what they provide on the court

2.) I expect our five main returning players to all improve for different reasons. Sanders, baker, doucoure, thiam and Eugene o all have good upside from what we see on the court from them.

Corey can be become more consistent and get the outside shot percentage up.

Baker will benefit massively in his game from s@c....massively. The skill set is there to do it well for 20 mpg....S&C will make him a 32 mpg player at high productivity by his junior year

Thiam needs a lot more S&C

Eugene O will get better. Just experience alone will help. Expect to see more mid range game

Douxoure will learn to play defense positioning better to get him on the court for 20 mpg. That alone should make him a legit 6/5 guy

Even Doorson has upside ...he needs a full off season to get him to where he finally can be physically

So I’m optimistic because I think the returnees get better and we add more than we lose.

I still also maintain the class of 2019 is our big shot to get a major talent infusion in this program ...On top of all of this

14-17/16-15/17-14 in years 1-3 and then a major infusion in the class of 2018-2019 as soph and frosh can sling shot us upwards in years 5 and 6 when they are juniors and soph

The plan is there ...it just takes time

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

I'm just going to continue to watch college basketball and do work in the evenings, knowing that this roster will have at a minimum 1 to 2 changes that will upgrade things for 2018-19....so it's too early to guess in January, what things will look like in November....:100points:.......:eyes:...:eyes:

 

[mikefla]

I trust coach P and I trust he has a plan & will tailor the game to his players

IMO WITH Corey we will be noticeably better
without Corey we will be slightly better

Arguing who gets how many minutes is the single dumbest thing I ever see Bball wise
Who knows who stays healthy OR who Pike brings in?

We will be deeper next year. The returning guys will have a years more Pike experience
and the new recruits will include some solid players

I trust Coach P will be able to teach an even better level of D with more talent

I look forward to our best year yet under coach P

 

[koko2315]

This might be over simplistic, but how will we do rosterwise next year when you match up a player leaving with a playing being available?

Lose Freeman, gain Shaq Carter.
Marginal or significant improvement?
Or will it take time to build the necessary chemistry?

Lose Mike Williams, gain Montez Mathis.
Push?
Maybe long term gain, but as a freshman?

Lose Sa, Johnson plays as redshirt freshman.
Gain due to Johnson’s supposed ability to score a bit? (Someone said Pike said he could score inside)

Gain Kiss
Obviously helpful as he can shoot 3’s (not sure at what %)

Gain Harper
Obviously helpful as he can shoot 3’s (not sure what %, and will need strength and conditioning as only a frosh)

Obviously each player coming and going has their own strengths and weaknesses.
But just trying to match up one coming with one going to see overall how much better the roster might be.

Overall, how much better does this make us?

And if you were to match up 1 in with 1 out, would you match them up any differently than I did, or have a different net assessment of the matchup comparison?

Early on i think we get a bit of the same. Freshmen are freshmen and cant expect Carter/Mathis to take over what Freeman/Williams do.

On the other hand, Baker is another year older which will pay the biggest dividends,IMO.

 

[ColonelRutgers]

Early on i think we get a bit of the same. Freshmen are freshmen and cant expect Carter/Mathis to take over what Freeman/Williams do.

On the other hand, Baker is another year older which will pay the biggest dividends,IMO.

Carter's a JUCO not a freshman. We need him to step in right away and take over.

 

[RUChoppin]

Early on i think we get a bit of the same. Freshmen are freshmen and cant expect Carter/Mathis to take over what Freeman/Williams do.

On the other hand, Baker is another year older which will pay the biggest dividends,IMO.

Carter will step in as a Junior, replacing 5th year Freeman... really hoping that he gels well with the team early on, and we don't see any dropoff there (and may see some improvement due to improved size).

Mathis/Kiss will both come in as additional guard options, in place of the minutes we'd been seeing from Williams/Mensah (and able to spell Sanders/Baker and keep them more fresh). I think that's a net gain overall, assuming Sanders stays. Would be a tougher row to hoe if he goes.

Thiam also has some backups that don't give up a ton of height in 6-5 Kiss and 6-6 Harper.

Overall, I think we'll be better, barring injury/transfer. More competition for minutes, more flexibility for Pike when players aren't performing well.

 

[soundcrib]

1st Five:
Sanders
Baker
Thiam
Carter
Doucoure

2nd Five:
Mathis
Kiss
Omoruyi
Johnson
Doorson

?
Mensah
Bullock
Harper
Nathan

It’s what we’ll have (just assuming no transfers or early declarations). I’d go to battle with this squad.

 

[BoxStater]

Thiam will drop to 8 minutes, and 6 of those at PF? And a Fr Harper will see more minutes at the 3 than a Jr Thiam? Really doubt that's going to be the case.

The way Thiam is playing tonight it’s too bad he’s only going to play 8 minutes per next year, lol & smh

 

[bsh75]

The other unknown consideration is if Sanders and/or Bullock leaves what other 2018 can the staff get an how much will that player improve the team.

 

[RutgHoops]

Being I wouldn't have been surprised if a homeless person checked in to the game for us tonight, my answer to the OP is "much, much better".

 

[koko2315]

Early on i think we get a bit of the same. Freshmen are freshmen and cant expect Carter/Mathis to take over what Freeman/Williams do.

On the other hand, Baker is another year older which will pay the biggest dividends,IMO.

Carter's a JUCO not a freshman. We need him to step in right away and take over.

Correct...my bad on carter

 

[Degaz-RU]

The way Thiam is playing tonight it’s too bad he’s only going to play 8 minutes per next year, lol & smh

LOL

 

[nealbo1]

I’ll address this

1.) for the last time....you do not look at points and rebounds alone to judge what you lose. It’s the quality of what they provide on the court

2.) I expect our five main returning players to all improve for different reasons. Sanders, baker, doucoure, thiam and Eugene o all have good upside from what we see on the court from them.

Corey can be become more consistent and get the outside shot percentage up.

Baker will benefit massively in his game from s@c....massively. The skill set is there to do it well for 20 mpg....S&C will make him a 32 mpg player at high productivity by his junior year

Thiam needs a lot more S&C

Eugene O will get better. Just experience alone will help. Expect to see more mid range game

Douxoure will learn to play defense positioning better to get him on the court for 20 mpg. That alone should make him a legit 6/5 guy

Even Doorson has upside ...he needs a full off season to get him to where he finally can be physically

So I’m optimistic because I think the returnees get better and we add more than we lose.

I still also maintain the class of 2019 is our big shot to get a major talent infusion in this program ...On top of all of this

14-17/16-15/17-14 in years 1-3 and then a major infusion in the class of 2018-2019 as soph and frosh can sling shot us upwards in years 5 and 6 when they are juniors and soph

The plan is there ...it just takes time

I agree with every word. Great post . . .

 

[AreYouNUTS]

I’ll address this

1.) for the last time....you do not look at points and rebounds alone to judge what you lose. It’s the quality of what they provide on the court

2.) I expect our five main returning players to all improve for different reasons. Sanders, baker, doucoure, thiam and Eugene o all have good upside from what we see on the court from them.

Corey can be become more consistent and get the outside shot percentage up.

Baker will benefit massively in his game from s@c....massively. The skill set is there to do it well for 20 mpg....S&C will make him a 32 mpg player at high productivity by his junior year

Thiam needs a lot more S&C

Eugene O will get better. Just experience alone will help. Expect to see more mid range game

Douxoure will learn to play defense positioning better to get him on the court for 20 mpg. That alone should make him a legit 6/5 guy

Even Doorson has upside ...he needs a full off season to get him to where he finally can be physically

So I’m optimistic because I think the returnees get better and we add more than we lose.

I still also maintain the class of 2019 is our big shot to get a major talent infusion in this program ...On top of all of this

14-17/16-15/17-14 in years 1-3 and then a major infusion in the class of 2018-2019 as soph and frosh can sling shot us upwards in years 5 and 6 when they are juniors and soph

The plan is there ...it just takes time

I think Baker's game could be devastating with 7-10 lbs of (extra) muscle by next season.

 

[knights1212]

I think we just might have a shot at Vlad Manuel from the Patrick School. He moves well, can score, rebound & block shots.he would be a nice addition.