Last 5 Minute Stats

[RUChoppin]

Someone said something in another thread about wanting the ball in Baker's hands at the end of the game, and it got me thinking about production as the clock winds down toward the final whistle.

I went back through all the ESPN Play-by-Plays for our 25 high-major games this year and recorded the box score just for the last 5 minutes. I also took note of the margin as the game reached the 5 minute mark.


Looking just at 13 games where the score differential was 10 pts or less with 5 minutes left

As a Team:
151 Pts, 44/95 FG (.463), 8/33 3P (.242), 55/80 FT (.688), 71 RB, 16 Ast, 8 TOV, 7 Stl, 8 Blk, 56 PF

Young: 37 pts, 8/20 FG (.400), 1/7 3P (.143), 20/27 FT (.741), 2 RB, 4 Ast, 3 TOV, 3 Stl, 1 Blk, 3 PF (11 games)
Harper: 30 pts, 9/22 FG (.409), 2/9 3P (.222), 10/17 FT (.588), 23 RB, 1 Ast, 1 TOV, 0 Stl, 2 Blk, 9 PF (12 games)
Baker: 29 pts, 9/20 FG (.450), 2/7 3P (.286), 9/12 FT (.750), 7 RB, 5 Ast, 3 TOV, 0 Stl, 2 Blk, 11 PF (12 games)
Johnson: 25 pts, 9/11 FG (.818), 0/0 3P (.000), 7/13 FT (.538), 25 RB, 0 Ast, 1 TOV, 2 Stl, 3 Blk, 12 PF (13 games)
Mathis: 12 pts, 4/9 FG (.444), 1/3 3P (.333), 3/5 FT (.600), 6 RB, 2 Ast, 0 TOV, 0 Stl, 0 Blk, 4 PF (5 games)
McConnell: 11 pts, 4/7 FG (.571), 1/3 3P (.333), 2/2 FT (1.000), 3 RB, 2 Ast, 0 TOV, 2 Stl, 0 Blk, 6 PF (6 games)
Mulcahy: 7 pts, 1/5 FG (.200), 1/4 3P (.250), 4/4 FT (1.000), 4 RB, 2 Ast, 0 TOV, 0 Stl, 0 Blk, 9 PF (8 games)
Omoruyi: 0 pts, 0/1 FG (.000), 0/0 3P (.000), 0/0 FT (.000), 1 RB, 0 Ast, 0 TOV, 0 Stl, 0 Blk, 1 PF (1 games)

Some thoughts:
- We almost always finished close games with a lot of Young/Baker/Harper/Johnson in the lineup
- Young/Baker/Harper accounted for 62 of our 95 shots (65.3%), with Johnson bringing it up to 73/95 (76.8%)
- Johnson/Harper combined for 48 of our 71 rebounds (67.6%), with Baker coming in 3rd with 7 (a little surprising, since he's not a great rebounder)
- The only players to make more than 1 three pointer at the end of close games were Harper and Baker, and they were a combined 4/16 (.250)
- The only players to commit more than 1 turnover at the end of close games were Young and Baker, each with 3
- We went 8-5 in these games, once winning a game where were down with 5 minutes left (Syracuse), twice winning a game that was tied (Minnesota x2), and twice losing a game where we were up (Iowa, Houston)


Looking at the 12 games where the score differential was 11 pts or more:

As a Team:
132 Pts, 49/110 FG (.445), 11/37 3P (.297), 23/35 FT (.657), 52 RB, 22 Ast, 8 TOV, 18 Stl, 6 Blk, 34 PF

Looking at our core rotation, overall:

Young: 49 pts, 19/28 FG (.679), 7/10 3P (.700), 4/8 FT (.500), 2 RB, 5 Ast, 4 TOV, 7 Stl, 0 Blk, 11 PF (12 games)
Harper: 27 pts, 11/24 FG (.458), 0/7 3P (.000), 5/5 FT (1.000), 12 RB, 3 Ast, 0 TOV, 3 Stl, 0 Blk, 3 PF (12 games)
Johnson: 14 pts, 5/7 FG (.714), 4/6 FT (.667), 10 RB, 0 Ast, 1 TOV, 0 Stl, 4 Blk, 2 PF (7 games)
McConnell: 10 pts, 3/12 FG (.250), 1/5 3P (.200), 3/5 FT (.600), 8 RB, 4 Ast, 0 TOV, 1 Stl, 0 Blk, 6 PF (8 games)
Omoruyi: 6 pts, 2/6 FG (.333), 1/2 3P (.500), 1/4 FT (.250), 7 RB, 0 Ast, 0 TOV, 1 Blk, 2 PF (5 games)
Mathis: 6 pts, 1/4 FG (.250), 1/2 3P (.500), 3/4 FT (.750), 4 RB, 1 AST, 0 TOV, 2 Stl, 0 Blk, 4 PF (7 games)
Mulcahy: 4 pts, 2/3 FG (.667), 0/0 3P (.000), 0/0 FT (.000), 3 RB, 2 Ast, 2 TOV, 4 Stl, 0 Blk, 0 PF (6 games)
Baker: 2 pts, 1/13 FG (.077), 0/8 3P (.000), 0/0 FT (.000), 2 RB, 4 Ast, 0 TOV, 0 Stl, 1 Blk, 3 PF (10 games)

Some thoughts:
- Young put up a lot of points at the end of games where the point differential was large with 5 minutes to go
- Baker/Harper were a combined 0/15 from deep at the ends of these games
- We went 5-7 in these games, and all were decided in favor of the team leading with 5 minutes left (no big comebacks either way, though Indiana shaved our lead from 20 to just 9 at the final buzzer)

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Thanks for the analysis. No need to read the 2nd half of your post. The AROD New York Yankees. Hitting dongs while up 7-1.

Definitely supports the notion that Baker is clutch.

You didn’t happen to jot down minutes played

 

[RUChoppin]

Thanks for the analysis. No need to read the 2nd half of your post. The AROD New York Yankees. Hitting dongs while up 7-1.

Definitely supports the notion that Baker is clutch.

You didn’t happen to jot down minutes played

Wouldn't be able to get that from the Play-by-Play, since it doesn't tell you who's in or who's out. I might be able to tease it out of the lineup data, because I think it includes the timestamps for each lineup change... but that's again limited to the games we have data for.

 

[BillyC80]

Thanks Choppin. It’s apparent that Young took more shots than Baker in the last 5 minutes, or that he made more moves into the paint with the ball, since he has many more foul-shot attempts.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The games played tells the story. I think most games Paul will be on the bench down the stretch.

 

[RUChoppin]

The games played tells the story. I think most games Paul will be on the bench down the stretch.

To be fair, that's really "games where a stat was generated"... it's possible for someone to have played and been invisible in the Play-by-Play if they didn't record a single shot, rebound, assist, turnover, steal, block, or foul... most likely candidates for that are probably Mulcahy and Omoruyi, who may have played some minutes in the final stretch of a game where they didn't get on the stat sheet.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

To be fair, that's really "games where a stat was generated"... it's possible for someone to have played and been invisible in the Play-by-Play if they didn't record a single shot, rebound, assist, turnover, steal, block, or foul... most likely candidates for that are probably Mulcahy and Omoruyi, who may have played some minutes in the final stretch of a game where they didn't get on the stat sheet.

Or Issa

 

[RUChoppin]

Calculating some TS% for the games within 10 pts (which factors together FTs and FGs):

74.8% - Johnson
69.8% - McConnell
58.0% - Young
57.4% - Baker
53.6% - Mathis
51.8% - Mulcahy
50.9% - Harper

 

[kcg88]

Aside from the Iowa and Houston games I don't remember any of our losses coming down to the wire. When we lost last year it was pretty clear by the 10:00 remaining point.

 

[RUChoppin]

Aside from the Iowa and Houston games I don't remember any of our losses coming down to the wire. When we lost last year it was pretty clear by the 10:00 remaining point.

The five games where the margin was 10 or less with 5 min left that we lost:
1/2/21 - Iowa: Up by 3, lost by 2
1/15/21 - Wisconsin: Down by 8, lost by 6 (4 pt game with 1 min left)
1/21/21 - Penn State: Down by 7, lost by 8 (4 pt game with 1 min left)
2/21/21 - Maryland: Down by 10, lost by 9 (only got as close as 8 with 1:20 left)
3/21/21 - Houston: Up by 7, lost by 3

Clearly the 21st of the month wasn't good to us - glad we didn't have a game on 12/21/20