Montez Mathis Game Highlights
- Thread starter RU-Choppin-Ohio
- Start date
No, you shouldn't turn down open shots - any open shot is a good shot, provided it's in the shooter's range. But the worst shot in basketball is one with a foot on the three point arc... lowest points per shot on the court. I never understood guys who took a single dribble to step up and put their heels just past the line - they're not increasing their percentage, and they just gave up the benefit of shooting from distance.
Ideal would be shots from 0-14 feet or so, then 19+. Bigs stepping out and hitting jumpers, guards pulling up for shorter jumpers over shot blockers, outside shooters driving past tight defenders to get a better look... sure. There's just not a lot of call for the 15-19 foot range - better off getting 50% more points for a slight drop in hit rate.
Steph Curry's 2015-16 season was an offensive clinic... and here's his shot chart that season. It's almost exclusively threes and shots in the lane.
Sure, if you are Steph Curry. I mean look at his percentages. From the middle and to the right he shoots 51% from 3 ... 51%! And he does shoot 68% in the lane - but even then, by the MATH he is better off shooting from the right side of the shot chart 3 than even an in-the-lane 2 ... by the math. OF COURSE he should NEVER take a mid-range shot with those percentages. On the other hand, he is better off shooting the left side of the chart mid-range than either the left side of the chart 3, or the right side corner 3.
I would bet that most college players would show somewhat different percentages.
The only conclusion to draw is that if you are an above average 3 point shooter - or maybe well above average (I am not sure what the average college 3-point shooter shoots - I would have to look that up) it might be worth shooting 3's rather than mid-range shots.
The question is how much better a shooter are you at 19.8 feet vs 17.8 feet? If you shoot 33% from 19.8 feet, you would need to shoot 50% from 17.8 feet to make the shots equal value. How many players are 50% more accurate two feet inside the three point line than at the line? I'd venture to say not many - at any level.
As distance increases, accuracy decreases - so, there's a "breaking point" where it makes more sense to shoot from behind the arc than from the midrange, for every player who has that range. As an example, Player A shoots 33% from three, but just 38% from 15 feet.Over a hundred shots from the arc, he'd score 99 points... but over a hundred shots from 15 feet, he'd make just 76 points. That player should shoot threes more often than the 15 footers. Player B shoots 33% from three, and 55% from 15 feet.... over 100 shots, he'd score 99 from three but 110 from 15 feet, so he should look for the midrange much more often.
Obviously, this only matters for players who shoot threes with any regularity. If you're a PF who shoots just a couple a year, there's no sense stepping out for shots you're not going to make. This is more for a player like Thiam or Baker than a player like Mensah or Omoruyi.
