Official How Much Will We Improve Prediction Thread (Off and Def)

[Greene Rice FIG]

Right now we are ranked 106th by bart in adjusted offensive efficiency and 111th in defensive efficiency.

WHAT WILL THOSE NUMBERS BE AT THE END OF THE YEAR?

Brief education....those numbers just look at points scored and points given up divided by amount of possessions and then adjusted for strength of opponent. Below is our adjusted numbers each game...move the decimal point over two spots to your left to get adjusted points per possession

		POSS	OFF	DEF
Wagner	W, 75-52	69	105.3	90.6
Saint Peter's	W, 75-65	65	111.1	112.3
Monmouth	W, 98-81	70	132.1	122
Merrimack	W, 74-63	68	112.9	98.4
Kennesaw St.	L, 79-77	79	94.6	104.3
Notre Dame	W, 85-84 OT	73	116	107.6
Alabama	L, 95-90	79	126.3	100.2
Texas A&M	L, 81-77	77	114.4	95.4
Ohio St.	L, 80-66	66	112.4	109.3
Penn St.	W, 80-76	73	118.5	95.8
Seton Hall	W, 66-63	65	102.1	107
Princeton	L, 83-82	74	110.3	109.5
Columbia	W, 91-64	72	114.8	92
Indiana	L, 84-74	75	108.6	103.2
Wisconsin	L, 75-63	70	94.8	94.3
Purdue	L, 68-50	63	86.1	93.2

T-Page for Rutgers - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

My prediction is we improve to 60 on O and improve to 80 on D. My rationale is Dylan is healthy and our D is trending in the right direction. Given the season is 1/2 over obviously that makes it tougher to move

 

[bac2therac]

wow put down the gummies

 

[Freddy Stubbs]

Our numbers will continue to get worse. Especially on defense. I think everyone in the league knows we can't guard the pick and roll. They should run it every offensive possession against us and shoot 80% every game.

 

[goru7]

My prediction is we improve to 60 on O and improve to 80 on D. My rationale is Dylan is healthy and our D is trending in the right direction. Given the season is 1/2 over obviously that makes it tougher to move

One way to improve offensive efficiency is to run simple offense pick and roll and pick and pop. Dylan runs a 2 man game with Lathan or Ace for pick and roll or pick and Pop. Never want to see ACE hiding in the corner again . Never want to see Dylan in the corner as a decoy or give the coaching staff the benefit of the doubt it was done because he was ill and no energy.
Cannot run pick and roll with OHBOLE BECAUSE he cannot catch a bounce pass or drive to the basket but both Lathan and Ace can. Perfect example Smith last night and Monday night with Blackwell . Smith had 14 assists almost all on pick and roll and if drop coverage happens doubtful with Dylan , Dylan can torch anyone. Dylan and ACE in pick and pop should be the other half of the offensive action. If we do that we have a shot to get to 60. But our supporting cast is so bad the offensive efficiency strides will be tempered because of their bad shooting. Hope Acuff is ready for kick outs when running any of the pick and roll action. If Acuff gets healthier can see him running it when Dylan gets a blow.
Defensively , unless the guards make a better attempt to get over the screens or stay tighter to the point guard so they cannot be screened so easily , we will not get better defensively. Ogbole does drop coverage and Lathan has been doing some hard hedging so although I like Lathan ‘s attempt to disrupt the play , Ogbole is almost useless. The rest of the supporting cast cannot stay in front of a mule and that includes Acuff, PJ, Jordan and inexplicably and unfortunately Jeremiah or JMike. So disappointed in the 3 supposed defensive players. Epic fail. Cannot see defense climbing to 80.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

wow put down the gummies

We are a bad team.....but not as bad as we have been the last 2 games. We also aren't as good as we were in LV...although it wouldn't be inconceivable that we eventuaslly figure it out.

If the season is half over and we improve to those levels AND everyones else stays the same we play the rest of the season like a 35-40 ranked team.

We still have 2 lottery picks.....I have to hope eventually we play better

 

[winfield102]

Why would we play better offensively? The scheme stinks,the players struggle and everyone appears to have free reign when it comes to shooting.

This is who Pike was,who Pike is and who Pike will always be from an offensive standpoint.

The Wisconsin and Purdue shooting percentages from 2 were obscene. Those two teams missing threes was more due to them being off than being highly contested. Basically, we're lucky we didn't get completely annihilated.

Stop Dylan at all costs, let Ace shoot his crazy twos and don't worry about the rest. It's the shortest defensive prep a team will have against an opponent this year. You don't even have to bother doing a defensive walk-through of the ru offense.

 

[darkcheck]

We are a bad team.....but not as bad as we have been the last 2 games. We also aren't as good as we were in LV...although it wouldn't be inconceivable that we eventuaslly figure it out.

If the season is half over and we improve to those levels AND everyones else stays the same we play the rest of the season like a 35-40 ranked team.

We still have 2 lottery picks.....I have to hope eventually we play better

Hope springs eternal

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Hope springs eternal

Just rational thinking. Absent of injuries to Ace or Dylan the offensive numbers almost have to improve.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Why would we play better offensively? The scheme stinks,the players struggle and everyone appears to have free reign when it comes to shooting.

This is who Pike was,who Pike is and who Pike will always be from an offensive standpoint.

The Wisconsin and Purdue shooting percentages from 2 were obscene. Those two teams missing threes was more due to them being off than being highly contested. Basically, we're lucky we didn't get completely annihilated.

Stop Dylan at all costs, let Ace shoot his crazy twos and don't worry about the rest. It's the shortest defensive prep a team will have against an opponent this year. You don't even have to bother doing a defensive walk-through of the ru offense.

3/16 of those offensive numbers are without a healthy Dylan.

 

[DHajekRC84]

My prediction is we improve to 60 on O and improve to 80 on D. My rationale is Dylan is healthy and our D is trending in the right direction. Given the season is 1/2 over obviously that makes it tougher to move

Lol..our D is trending in the right direction if 1 is on the left and 328 is on the right.

 

[RUich]

Last nights game seemed like the worst one of the season. We were a turn over machine! My guess is that we somehow squeak out a couple of wins somehow, but pretty much screw the pooch the rest of the way. This team may well become the worst one, by what the future looked like, in modern history.
I don't know if Pike will survive this, but probably will due to the cost of letting him go. There is simply no excuse for such a bad job in recruiting and portal. Definitely see some of the coaches gone along with anyone with a pulse on the team.

 

[bac2therac]

We are a bad team.....but not as bad as we have been the last 2 games. We also aren't as good as we were in LV...although it wouldn't be inconceivable that we eventuaslly figure it out.

If the season is half over and we improve to those levels AND everyones else stays the same we play the rest of the season like a 35-40 ranked team.

We still have 2 lottery picks.....I have to hope eventually we play better

Our sos the rest of the way is in the top 20

You are bargainning..wow

only 6 rac games and trips loom where we will lose by 20-30

Sure there will be joyful performances when the opponent has an off night but likely a handful

There is NOTHING to suggest this team is capable of top 40 performances...it didnt vs Princeton or Ohio State...dont do this to yourself

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Our sos the rest of the way is in the top 20

You are bargainning..wow

only 6 rac games and trips loom where we will lose by 20-30

Sure there will be joyful performances when the opponent has an off night but likely a handful

There is NOTHING to suggest this team is capable of top 40 performances...it didnt vs Princeton or Ohio State...dont do this to yourself

Eff numbers are adjusted for that SOs

 

[goru7]

Why would we play better offensively? The scheme stinks,the players struggle and everyone appears to have free reign when it comes to shooting.

This is who Pike was,who Pike is and who Pike will always be from an offensive standpoint.

The Wisconsin and Purdue shooting percentages from 2 were obscene. Those two teams missing threes was more due to them being off than being highly contested. Basically, we're lucky we didn't get completely annihilated.

Stop Dylan at all costs, let Ace shoot his crazy twos and don't worry about the rest. It's the shortest defensive prep a team will have against an opponent this year. You don't even have to bother doing a defensive walk-through of the ru offense.

Which is why we should go exclusively pick and roll with Dylan and Lathan or Dylan and ACE and pick and pop with Dylan and ACE. Lathan and ACE can catch a pass or a bounce pass on the roll. Ogbole is incapable. Play simple basketball and just copy Wisconsin and Purdue and what they did to us. We have the better players or for those holdouts , at least as good in our top 3 as Wisconsin or Purdue.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

You cannot effectively determine anything about this roster until you see 12 to 15 games of this lineup. I am of the opinion PIKE knows Dortch is better or as capable of the same level of productivity that Grant has provided BUT will not do it to further embarrass himself or open himself up to questions about why he wasn't utilized.

Ace 33 minutes
Harper 33 minutes
Grant 24 minutes
Acuff 24 minutes
Sommerville 26 minutes
Dortch 20 minutes
JWill 16 minutes
Derkack 14 minutes
JMike/Hayes 10 minutes

Anything short of this minutes distribution will result in a 6-14 B1G record.

Make the changes to this lineup above and 10-10 to 12-8 B1G is on the table. It requires 3 assumptions.

Dylan and Ace at 100%.

Dortch, Grant and Sommerville around 65 to 70 minutes per game.

No Ogbole and Martini wasted possessions on offense and defense.

I am building in reduced turnovers because of limiting minutes for Derkack, JMike and Ogbole.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You are overrating Somerville big time

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

You are overrating Somerville big time

It comes down to what pieces are on the court with each player.....the pieces have to fit...

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

It comes down to what pieces are on the court with each player.....the pieces have to fit...

This puzzle doesnt have interlocking pieces. I think we are trying to force a 5 in the 5 spot. At some point we need to think slightly outside the box and ask a smaller player to use quickness to defend a bigger and stronger person.

As you say. Can Dortch be that much worse than what we saw from the 40 minutes at the 5?

 

[goru7]

The focus on minutes is ridiculous. If you doing something out there , getting a rebound , playing hard defense , cutting to the basket , hitting the offense glass , setting up your teammates , hitting quality shots , that is who deserves to play.
Just listened to Painter’s post game press conference which is a must listen. He is the smartest coach , the most realistic coach , and tells it like it is. Great respect. Said they were lucky to catch us with Dylan under the weather and very obvious to him. Said imagine how different game would have been with a healthy Dylan and Smith had the flu. They both control the action and it was lucky they never saw the version of Dylan pre flu. He said we just need a find a way to get a win , anyway , anyhow. Then you build on it because we are definitely capable and dangerous at full strength.
Most of our posters would learn more about basketball from listening to Painter than spewing the crap that is posted. He is the smartest guy in the room and a reason he has had tremendous success. He mentioned he has only taken 2 guys on the portal inthe last 4 years. When he loses a game , the geniuses on the Purdue boards say he should have used the portal more and when he wins they say great job with the development of the players. How he thought of the fans reaction and stupidity was classic. I love the guy and root for him in every game he doesn’t play Rutgers

 

[goru7]

You are overrating Somerville big time

We are severely underusing Sommerville and why? His early output was 10 points a game , a few rebounds. We need that 10 points a game very badly. We can utilize pick and roll and he is a good foul shooter . Have to establish him on the block more than never like we do now.

 

[rubjk]

The focus on minutes is ridiculous. If you doing something out there , getting a rebound , playing hard defense , cutting to the basket , hitting the offense glass , setting up your teammates , hitting quality shots , that is who deserves to play.
Just listened to Painter’s post game press conference which is a must listen. He is the smartest coach , the most realistic coach , and tells it like it is. Great respect. Said they were lucky to catch us with Dylan under the weather and very obvious to him. Said imagine how different game would have been with a healthy Dylan and Smith had the flu. They both control the action and it was lucky they never saw the version of Dylan pre flu. He said we just need a find a way to get a win , anyway , anyhow. Then you build on it because we are definitely capable and dangerous at full strength.
Most of our posters would learn more about basketball from listening to Painter than spewing the crap that is posted. He is the smartest guy in the room and a reason he has had tremendous success. He mentioned he has only taken 2 guys on the portal inthe last 4 years. When he loses a game , the geniuses on the Purdue boards say he should have used the portal more and when he wins they say great job with the development of the players. How he thought of the fans reaction and stupidity was classic. I love the guy and root for him in every game he doesn’t play Rutgers

Your crazy to suggest a coach knows more than those here 🥸

 

[Hondo77]

What you’re seeing now isn’t going to change.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

We are severely underusing Sommerville and why? His early output was 10 points a game , a few rebounds. We need that 10 points a game very badly. We can utilize pick and roll and he is a good foul shooter . Have to establish him on the block more than never like we do now.

OOC vs B1G.

 

[goru7]

OOC vs B1G.

He doesn’t touch the Bball enough. We run no pick and roll with him or not enough. Nothing to do with conference or out of conference. His shot attempts are drastically reduced.

 

[seansherm]

You cannot effectively determine anything about this roster until you see 12 to 15 games of this lineup. I am of the opinion PIKE knows Dortch is better or as capable of the same level of productivity that Grant has provided BUT will not do it to further embarrass himself or open himself up to questions about why he wasn't utilized.

Ace 33 minutes
Harper 33 minutes
Grant 24 minutes
Acuff 24 minutes
Sommerville 26 minutes
Dortch 20 minutes
JWill 16 minutes
Derkack 14 minutes
JMike/Hayes 10 minutes

Anything short of this minutes distribution will result in a 6-14 B1G record.

Make the changes to this lineup above and 10-10 to 12-8 B1G is on the table. It requires 3 assumptions.

Dylan and Ace at 100%.

Dortch, Grant and Sommerville around 65 to 70 minutes per game.

No Ogbole and Martini wasted possessions on offense and defense.

I am building in reduced turnovers because of limiting minutes for Derkack, JMike and Ogbole.

Nothing like setting it up so you can say see I told you so, this scenario didn't happen. We've heard Dortch is aways from contributing, but he's your next unknown savior.

 

[seansherm]

He doesn’t touch the Bball enough. We run no pick and roll with him or not enough. Nothing to do with conference or out of conference. His shot attempts are drastically reduced.

He doesn't roll well and really can't get his shot off against bigger guys.

 

[Ridge 22]

The team will have a few positive random moments here or there the rest of the way, but will largely disintegrate as they fall completely out of contention. Ace and Dylan will shift their focus to the draft and the rest will be scrambling like rats to protect their own interests outside of RU going forward. Nothing is getting better this season. Unless maybe Martini finds his special matchup that we have been hearing so much about. That will be exciting at least

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

No one making predictions!!

 

[bac2therac]

12-19

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

12-19

Reading comprehension an issue. Ending year OFF and DEF adjusted rankings

 

[Freddy Stubbs]

115 offense 125 defense

 

[Ridge 22]

Reading comprehension an issue. Ending year OFF and DEF adjusted rankings

Who cares. It will be towards the bottom for both. The actual number isn't too relevant. It sucks regardless

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Who cares. It will be towards the bottom for both. The actual number isn't too relevant. It sucks regardless

That will be the last useless post i read from you. We all are not happy, but you are over the top

Ignore list actuvated

 

[Ridge 22]

That will be the last useless post i read from you. We all are not happy, but you are over the top

Ignore list actuvated

Thank you!!!

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

115 offense 125 defense

Status quo with a slight bias to slightly worse

 

[RU84]

For the sake of the season, I would hope if Dortch can elevate this team that the coaching staff will play him … whether it makes them look bad for not for playing him earlier or not.

 

[winfield102]

3/16 of those offensive numbers are without a healthy Dylan.

Wouldn't we have to get super efficient to end up at 60 if we are over 100 with less than 50% of the regular season left?

I'll guess that we don't improve by more than 10 spots for offense or defense.

I think there's more opportunity for us to improve on offense from an efficiency standpoint, but I don't see Pike getting it done.

 

[goru7]

He doesn't roll well and really can't get his shot off against bigger guys.

Doubtful , he can catch a bounce pass and dribble drive to the hole. You just have not seen it because we don’t do it or do it once every blue moon. Go back to simple fundamental basketball . He can create separation to get his shot off against bigger guys but on a roll he would have a shorter guy on him coming from the weak side or a defender in drop coverage.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Wouldn't we have to get super efficient to end up at 60 if we are over 100 with less than 50% of the regular season left?

I'll guess that we don't improve by more than 10 spots for offense or defense.

I think there's more opportunity for us to improve on offense from an efficiency standpoint, but I don't see Pike getting it done.

There isnt that much separation between where we are #40