OFFICIAL NET Thread - 2022/23
- Thread starter fatsam98
- Start date
If Minnesota can win a few games it'll be nice to remove any chances of Q4 losses if possible
Ohio State fell to 17 in kenpom with the loss. Minnesota up to 174.
We moved up one spot to 17. Good for 2nd in B1G. OSU fell to 21.
Big Ten cluster:
Indiana 37
Iowa 38
Maryland 39
Michigan State 41
Penn State 51
Northwestern 52 (they flipped overnight)
Wisconsin 60
Michigan 77
Nebraska 95
Arizona State was the big gainer in the top 100 last night, jumping from 56 to 40 with a big blowout win at Oregon. Sam Houston in the WAC was a big loser, going from 39 to 57 with a loss to Southern Utah. (Who?) Sam Houston was the top WAC team so this kind of loss is a big blow to the WAC's chances of being a two bid league.
Indiana 37
Iowa 38
Maryland 39
Michigan State 41
Penn State 51
Northwestern 52 (they flipped overnight)
Wisconsin 60
Michigan 77
Nebraska 95
Arizona State was the big gainer in the top 100 last night, jumping from 56 to 40 with a big blowout win at Oregon. Sam Houston in the WAC was a big loser, going from 39 to 57 with a loss to Southern Utah. (Who?) Sam Houston was the top WAC team so this kind of loss is a big blow to the WAC's chances of being a two bid league.
Bubbletology last night:
Arizona State helped themselves with a big win at Oregon. Utah lost at home to UCLA which isn't bad by any means but they're now 12-6 with USC coming up. The Trojans stayed in the mix with a win over Colorado. Pac-12 is looking at three or four bids: Arizona, UCLA, and Arizona State sitting well, and then one or neither of USC/Utah.
BYU needed to beat Gonzaga to start climbing toward the bubble, instead they blew it. It was still gonna be uphill even with a win but now they basically need to sweep the last three games against Zaga/SMC. Not gonna happen. WCC is two bids, lock it up.
Iowa beat Michigan to pull ahead of them in the pecking order. Wolverines just 9-7 and their 3-0 Big Ten start came apart on the road at MSU and Iowa. Iowa is doing what it needs to do to cleanse the Q4 loss, and they have another two in a row at home coming up.
Arizona State helped themselves with a big win at Oregon. Utah lost at home to UCLA which isn't bad by any means but they're now 12-6 with USC coming up. The Trojans stayed in the mix with a win over Colorado. Pac-12 is looking at three or four bids: Arizona, UCLA, and Arizona State sitting well, and then one or neither of USC/Utah.
BYU needed to beat Gonzaga to start climbing toward the bubble, instead they blew it. It was still gonna be uphill even with a win but now they basically need to sweep the last three games against Zaga/SMC. Not gonna happen. WCC is two bids, lock it up.
Iowa beat Michigan to pull ahead of them in the pecking order. Wolverines just 9-7 and their 3-0 Big Ten start came apart on the road at MSU and Iowa. Iowa is doing what it needs to do to cleanse the Q4 loss, and they have another two in a row at home coming up.
Alabama jumps from 6 to 3 with 40 pt win vs LSU
Charleston(17-1) drops from 42 to 49 with 18 pt win, 78-60, vs 354 Elon, line was 20.5, must've had bad efficiency in the win
Texas A&M jumps from 72 to 57 with 41 pt win, 94-53, @ 269 South Carolina.
UCSB loses at home 148 UC Riverside, 64-65, drop 84 to 105.
Montana jumps 196 to 164 with 84-55 win vs 248 Idaho St.
They are promoting blowouts and efficiency.
Charleston(17-1) drops from 42 to 49 with 18 pt win, 78-60, vs 354 Elon, line was 20.5, must've had bad efficiency in the win
Texas A&M jumps from 72 to 57 with 41 pt win, 94-53, @ 269 South Carolina.
UCSB loses at home 148 UC Riverside, 64-65, drop 84 to 105.
Montana jumps 196 to 164 with 84-55 win vs 248 Idaho St.
They are promoting blowouts and efficiency.
You also have to take a look at what happened to the teams they've already played on their schedule. For example, Charleston had a 5-point win over Stetson... Who got blown out yesterday by Eastern Kentucky. That win now looks worse, which will impact Charleston's overall NET.
Your own efficiency matters, but if you have close games or losses to teams that see big drops in their NET, that can also drag you down.
Big win today vs. OSU (21).
Also...
Marquette (16) lost at Xavier (17)
Rider (242) had a big win AT Iona (60) and should move up
Temple (153) lost a close home game to Memphis (50) and should move up
Iowa (37) won big over Maryland (40) at home and may bump up a bit (not enough to get to Q1, though, I don't think)
We may shuffle a bit up to 17 ahead of Marquette and behind Xavier... or we may stay put.
Also...
Marquette (16) lost at Xavier (17)
Rider (242) had a big win AT Iona (60) and should move up
Temple (153) lost a close home game to Memphis (50) and should move up
Iowa (37) won big over Maryland (40) at home and may bump up a bit (not enough to get to Q1, though, I don't think)
We may shuffle a bit up to 17 ahead of Marquette and behind Xavier... or we may stay put.
with all games having wrapped up hours ago we got a same-day update:
rutgers moves up to #16 in the NET
record by Quadrant:
Q1: 3-2
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 2-1
Q4: 6-0
rutgers moves up to #16 in the NET
record by Quadrant:
Q1: 3-2
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 2-1
Q4: 6-0
Indiana at 32 could sneak back into a home Q1 win for us if they have success moving forward.
Buckeyes dropped from 21 to 22 with the loss. Hopefully they hang in Q1 but stay behind us.
Wake at 76 now, just barely outside Q2 win territory.
Buckeyes dropped from 21 to 22 with the loss. Hopefully they hang in Q1 but stay behind us.
Wake at 76 now, just barely outside Q2 win territory.
Wow, Xavier was at 17 and beat 16..... and we were 18 and beat 21... and we jumped them. I'm sure other games played by prior teams we've each faced factored in.
Rider jumped from 242 to 223 (dropping Iona from 60 to 72).... +19 spots is a big move this late in the season off of one game. Seton Hall up to 64 and even more solidly in Q2.
Rider jumped from 242 to 223 (dropping Iona from 60 to 72).... +19 spots is a big move this late in the season off of one game. Seton Hall up to 64 and even more solidly in Q2.
RU is now #16
Results:
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
4 - @Purdue (W)
22 - @Ohio St (L*)
22 - Ohio St (W)
39 - @Miami (L)
59 - @Northwestern (W)
Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
32 - Indiana (W)
35 - Iowa (L)
52 - Maryland (W)
64 - Seton Hall (L)
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
76 - Wake Forest (W)
141 - UMass-Lowell (W)
152 - (N) Temple (L)
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 141+ Away)
223 - Rider (W)
288 - Bucknell (W)
299 - Coppin St (W)
322 - Sacred Heart (W)
335 - Central CT St (W)
347 - Columbia (W)
Upcoming
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
23 - @Illinois
32 - @Indiana
35 - @Iowa
42 - @MSU
42 - (N)MSU
51 - @Penn St
67 - @Wisconsin
Q2 (31-75 Home, 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
51 - Penn St
59 - Northwestern
75 - Michigan
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
94 - Nebraska
206 - @Minnesota
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 241+ Away)
206 - Minnesota
Results:
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
4 - @Purdue (W)
22 - @Ohio St (L*)
22 - Ohio St (W)
39 - @Miami (L)
59 - @Northwestern (W)
Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
32 - Indiana (W)
35 - Iowa (L)
52 - Maryland (W)
64 - Seton Hall (L)
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
76 - Wake Forest (W)
141 - UMass-Lowell (W)
152 - (N) Temple (L)
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 141+ Away)
223 - Rider (W)
288 - Bucknell (W)
299 - Coppin St (W)
322 - Sacred Heart (W)
335 - Central CT St (W)
347 - Columbia (W)
Upcoming
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
23 - @Illinois
32 - @Indiana
35 - @Iowa
42 - @MSU
42 - (N)MSU
51 - @Penn St
67 - @Wisconsin
Q2 (31-75 Home, 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
51 - Penn St
59 - Northwestern
75 - Michigan
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
94 - Nebraska
206 - @Minnesota
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 241+ Away)
206 - Minnesota
You are going on past reputation. None of those 3 teams are good this year. WVU is 0-5 in the Big 12, Cincy has beaten no one and Florida is 10-7. They are not bad wins, but they are not strong ones either.
It only seems that way since so many sports media personalities attended Fruit U.
Miami comes back and beats Syracuse. Good for our NET and a big opportunity lost for Cuse to build some kind of at large case. Win-win.
Down to 17 again from 16, flip flopping with Xavier? No idea how that works. Neither of us played yesterday, and it looks like the few teams from their schedule that played yesterday dropped a bit and the few teams of ours that played rose a bit.
Our schedule is brutal the rest of the way!! All those away Q1 teams
Let’s beat MSU Thursday!!!!
Let’s beat MSU Thursday!!!!
Bubbletology update:
Ironclad 1-bid leagues: 18
Newest additions here are the WAC and the MAAC. Iona and Sam Houston State have taken additional losses and Utah Valley lost as well. Those leagues will not be getting two bids.
18 bids
Possible 2-bid leagues: 6
This is the CAA (Charleston), A-Sun (Liberty), MAC (Kent State), A-10 (Dayton/SLU), C-USA (FAU), and WCC (Gonzaga/SMC). I'm still including the A-10 here even though Dayton lost to VCU because the committee cannot ever seem to quit the A-10. The WCC is a lock for two and the C-USA is next most likely. Only Florida Atlantic has an at-large case right now, but the conference is strong enough that they're more likely to be upset in the conference tournament than a team like Liberty or Charleston. Let's call it 8 bids from this crop.
8 bids
That leaves 42 up for grabs among the top eight conferences This is up one from my previous calculation/estimation. Eyeballing it (2.5 basically means they’ll get either 2 or 3 bids):
AAC: 2.5 (Houston, Memphis, UCF in the mix) - Memphis just barely survived a scare against Temple. They're still slightly ahead of UCF in the pecking order because UCF has the worst loss of the two.
MWC: 3.5 (San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, New Mexico, Nevada) - It's a five team race for 3 or 4 bids. UNLV down to 1-4 in conference and no longer in the at-large discussion, but they're a dangerous team that can beat any of these top five.
Pac-12: 3.5 (UCLA, Arizona, USC, Arizona State) - Not much new here. USC replaces Utah by virtue of a head to head win.
Big East: 5 (UConn, Creighton, Providence, Marquette, Xavier) - No changes here. Seton Hall can enter the picture but they need to beat both UConn and Marquette at home this week. St. John's still needs more.
ACC: 6 (Duke, Virginia, UNC, Miami, Clemson, Pitt, NC State, Wake Forest) - Reluctantly bumping this league to 6 and adding Wake Forest to the mix here. Big week for them with Clemson and Virginia at home.
Big 12: 6.5 (Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, TCU, Baylor, pick one of the bottom 4) - Oklahoma is emerging as the best of the bottom with wins over TTU and WVU. Chances abound for the bottom four this week so we'll have a clearer picture next update.
SEC: 6 (Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Texas A&M) - Adding Texas A&M since they're 4-0 but they still don't have a great win yet. Their only Q1 win is at Florida, which, meh. Arkansas is this week's Kentucky, in need of a win to stop a freefall.
Big Ten: 8.5 (Everyone except Nebraska and Minnesota) - Everyone's still got a shot. Team to watch of the week is Wisconsin: They're home against Penn State and at Northwestern. All three of those teams are 3-3 in the league so who's gonna separate?
Total: 41.5 bids
So I'd project three of the leagues projected at x.5 to go OVER and two to go UNDER.
Ironclad 1-bid leagues: 18
Newest additions here are the WAC and the MAAC. Iona and Sam Houston State have taken additional losses and Utah Valley lost as well. Those leagues will not be getting two bids.
18 bids
Possible 2-bid leagues: 6
This is the CAA (Charleston), A-Sun (Liberty), MAC (Kent State), A-10 (Dayton/SLU), C-USA (FAU), and WCC (Gonzaga/SMC). I'm still including the A-10 here even though Dayton lost to VCU because the committee cannot ever seem to quit the A-10. The WCC is a lock for two and the C-USA is next most likely. Only Florida Atlantic has an at-large case right now, but the conference is strong enough that they're more likely to be upset in the conference tournament than a team like Liberty or Charleston. Let's call it 8 bids from this crop.
8 bids
That leaves 42 up for grabs among the top eight conferences This is up one from my previous calculation/estimation. Eyeballing it (2.5 basically means they’ll get either 2 or 3 bids):
AAC: 2.5 (Houston, Memphis, UCF in the mix) - Memphis just barely survived a scare against Temple. They're still slightly ahead of UCF in the pecking order because UCF has the worst loss of the two.
MWC: 3.5 (San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, New Mexico, Nevada) - It's a five team race for 3 or 4 bids. UNLV down to 1-4 in conference and no longer in the at-large discussion, but they're a dangerous team that can beat any of these top five.
Pac-12: 3.5 (UCLA, Arizona, USC, Arizona State) - Not much new here. USC replaces Utah by virtue of a head to head win.
Big East: 5 (UConn, Creighton, Providence, Marquette, Xavier) - No changes here. Seton Hall can enter the picture but they need to beat both UConn and Marquette at home this week. St. John's still needs more.
ACC: 6 (Duke, Virginia, UNC, Miami, Clemson, Pitt, NC State, Wake Forest) - Reluctantly bumping this league to 6 and adding Wake Forest to the mix here. Big week for them with Clemson and Virginia at home.
Big 12: 6.5 (Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, TCU, Baylor, pick one of the bottom 4) - Oklahoma is emerging as the best of the bottom with wins over TTU and WVU. Chances abound for the bottom four this week so we'll have a clearer picture next update.
SEC: 6 (Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Texas A&M) - Adding Texas A&M since they're 4-0 but they still don't have a great win yet. Their only Q1 win is at Florida, which, meh. Arkansas is this week's Kentucky, in need of a win to stop a freefall.
Big Ten: 8.5 (Everyone except Nebraska and Minnesota) - Everyone's still got a shot. Team to watch of the week is Wisconsin: They're home against Penn State and at Northwestern. All three of those teams are 3-3 in the league so who's gonna separate?
Total: 41.5 bids
So I'd project three of the leagues projected at x.5 to go OVER and two to go UNDER.
FWIW the current Bracket Matrix has:
One bid leagues: 23
WCC: 2
AAC: 2 (UCF is not on any brackets right now. Probably the right call in the moment but the predictive metrics are bullish)
Mountain West: 3
Pac-12: 3
Big East: 5
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
SEC: 5
Big Ten: 11
Thoughts:
The Big Ten will not get 11 bids. No way no how.
I might need to bump the ACC to 6.5. This is what I've been talking about with the ACC scam. It's a bad conference but the wins and losses are stacking up perfectly for them to maximize their number of bids.
One bid leagues: 23
WCC: 2
AAC: 2 (UCF is not on any brackets right now. Probably the right call in the moment but the predictive metrics are bullish)
Mountain West: 3
Pac-12: 3
Big East: 5
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
SEC: 5
Big Ten: 11
Thoughts:
The Big Ten will not get 11 bids. No way no how.
I might need to bump the ACC to 6.5. This is what I've been talking about with the ACC scam. It's a bad conference but the wins and losses are stacking up perfectly for them to maximize their number of bids.
Possible 2-bid leagues:
The A10 has virtually no chance at an at-large bid IMO. Ditto A-Sun (I'm not saying in theory that Liberty can't go undefeated, lose in the title game, and get a bid, just that I think there's basically no chance that actually happens). CAA pretty unlikely. CUSA quite likely. MAC no.
On the other side, the WCC is pretty much a lock for 2 with a shot at three if neither Zaga/SMC win the conference. So overall your estimate of 8 bids from that group looks good IMO but I think the extras are overwhelmingly likely to come from CUSA/WCC
MWC looks more like 4-4.5 than 3.5 IMO. Anywhere from 3-5 I can see.. we've got San Diego St, New Mexico, and Boise all very likely, and we could get both Nevada and Utah St. Or neither. Most likely one. And either of those teams or UNLV could win the conf tourney as well.
ACC is prob 6.5-7. I wouldn't count out VT despite their recent terrible stretch. We've got 5 very likely in Virginia, Duke, NC State, NC, Miami, and then Pitt, VT, Clemson, WF all still in it. Would be very unsurprised to see anywhere from 1-3 of that group make it.
B12 would put at 7.5. 6 near locks, but I think there are plenty of scenarios where 2 of the bottom 4 manage to separate themselves out.
SEC agree with 6 as the base case but I can see 5 (only one out of Missouri, TAMU, Ky, Florida, Mississippi St) or 7 (3 of that group). Even a situation where only Bama, Tennessee, Auburn, and Arkansas makes it isn't completely out of the question, though unlikely.
So for the Big Ten I feel this puts us more at 7.5 than 8.5. Sure, there are 12 possible candidates.
2 near locks: Purdue and Rutgers
2 very likely: Illinois and Ohio St.
Everyone else is questionable:
Iowa
Penn St.
Indiana
Michigan St.
Northwestern
Maryland
Wisconsin
Michigan
I wouldn't be overly surprised to see any of these teams in the tournament. I wouldn't be overly surprised to see any of these teams miss the tournament. I can imagine scenarios from 6 bids all the way to 9.
Yeah this is the issue with doing "if the season ended today" type brackets. Even if there are 11 top-50 teams in the Big Ten some of them are going to rack up the losses just by random chance.
Yeah the ACC is bizarre this year with a bunch of decent teams and then an awful bottom.
It kind of reminds me of the old Mountain West football conference in like the 2008 time frame that people used to wrongly claim was better than the Big East. They had Utah, BYU, and TCU which were all good to great teams but the other 6 teams were trash (meh Air Force was decent too I think)
Iowa looks just too good to be left out.
Will be very curious what the Committee does with Indiana and Wisc. Will they get healthy soon enough?
I just can’t imagine Committee leaving out both MSU and Michigan.
Northwestern and PSU are the confounding ones as truly don’t know what to make of them and think committe will have same admitted bias.
PSU petrifies me. Appear like Iowa. If they hit their threes they can beat anybody. I have liked our match up with NW.
Some don’t want to hear it but think Committee will always bend over backwards to get more western teams in the tourney just for geographic balance. Think why always an extra PAC 12 or Mountain West team and/or BYU/ St. Mary’s etc if any have a good year.
Paradoxically, I think with the B1G, ACC and SEC juggernauts in the East the committee does want some other conferences represented and the A10 is great as they traditionally are competitive and usually win a game or two.
So never surprises with late bubble bids.
Will be very curious what the Committee does with Indiana and Wisc. Will they get healthy soon enough?
I just can’t imagine Committee leaving out both MSU and Michigan.
Northwestern and PSU are the confounding ones as truly don’t know what to make of them and think committe will have same admitted bias.
PSU petrifies me. Appear like Iowa. If they hit their threes they can beat anybody. I have liked our match up with NW.
Some don’t want to hear it but think Committee will always bend over backwards to get more western teams in the tourney just for geographic balance. Think why always an extra PAC 12 or Mountain West team and/or BYU/ St. Mary’s etc if any have a good year.
Paradoxically, I think with the B1G, ACC and SEC juggernauts in the East the committee does want some other conferences represented and the A10 is great as they traditionally are competitive and usually win a game or two.
So never surprises with late bubble bids.
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