OFFICIAL NET Thread - 2022/23
- Thread starter fatsam98
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Bubbletology (not worth its own thread, but I wanted to update how many bids the Big 10 is looking at)
Ironclad 1-bid leagues: 16
Even if a team ran the table in the conference and lost in the conference title game, they wouldn’t get an at-large. Clearest example might be UC Santa Barbara currently at 12-2 (3-0) but with zero Q1 wins, no future opportunities, and a Q4 loss already. Not to mention the extreme unlikeliness of teams in these league actually going undefeated.
16 bids
Possible 2-bid leagues: 8
This is the CAA (Charleston), A-Sun (Liberty), MAAC (Iona), MAC (Kent State), WAC (Sam Houston State), A-10 (Dayton/SLU), and C-USA (FAU/UNT/UAB), and WCC (Gonzaga/SMC). These range from very unlikely (MAAC) to basically a lock (WCC). This year’s A-10 stinks but the committee always seems to have a soft spot for it. I’ll say eight auto-bids plus a second for the WCC and C-USA plus one wildcard.
11 bids
That leaves 41 up for grabs among the top eight conferences. Eyeballing it (2.5 basically means they’ll get either 2 or 3 bids):
AAC: 2.5 (Houston, Memphis, UCF in the mix)
MWC: 3.5 (San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, New Mexico, Nevada, UNLV)
P12: 3.5 (UCLA, Arizona, Utah, Arizona State)
Big East: 5 (UConn, Creighton, Providence, Marquette, Xavier)
ACC: 5.5 (Duke, Virginia, UNC, Miami, Clemson, Pitt, NC State)
B12: 6.5 (Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, TCU, Baylor, pick one of the bottom 4)
SEC: 6 (Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi State, Kentucky)
Big Ten: 8.5 (Everyone except Nebraska and Minnesota)
Teams could rise up but in general it’ll come at the expense of someone else (ie USC could make it but they’d probably need to stack wins over Utah or Arizona State to do so).
Am I being too bullish or bearish on any leagues? The ACC and the Big 12 could end up being 1.5 over my projection depending on how the standings shake out but I think right now they’re likely to be 5 or 6 and 6 or 7, respectively.
Ironclad 1-bid leagues: 16
Even if a team ran the table in the conference and lost in the conference title game, they wouldn’t get an at-large. Clearest example might be UC Santa Barbara currently at 12-2 (3-0) but with zero Q1 wins, no future opportunities, and a Q4 loss already. Not to mention the extreme unlikeliness of teams in these league actually going undefeated.
16 bids
Possible 2-bid leagues: 8
This is the CAA (Charleston), A-Sun (Liberty), MAAC (Iona), MAC (Kent State), WAC (Sam Houston State), A-10 (Dayton/SLU), and C-USA (FAU/UNT/UAB), and WCC (Gonzaga/SMC). These range from very unlikely (MAAC) to basically a lock (WCC). This year’s A-10 stinks but the committee always seems to have a soft spot for it. I’ll say eight auto-bids plus a second for the WCC and C-USA plus one wildcard.
11 bids
That leaves 41 up for grabs among the top eight conferences. Eyeballing it (2.5 basically means they’ll get either 2 or 3 bids):
AAC: 2.5 (Houston, Memphis, UCF in the mix)
MWC: 3.5 (San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, New Mexico, Nevada, UNLV)
P12: 3.5 (UCLA, Arizona, Utah, Arizona State)
Big East: 5 (UConn, Creighton, Providence, Marquette, Xavier)
ACC: 5.5 (Duke, Virginia, UNC, Miami, Clemson, Pitt, NC State)
B12: 6.5 (Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, TCU, Baylor, pick one of the bottom 4)
SEC: 6 (Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi State, Kentucky)
Big Ten: 8.5 (Everyone except Nebraska and Minnesota)
Teams could rise up but in general it’ll come at the expense of someone else (ie USC could make it but they’d probably need to stack wins over Utah or Arizona State to do so).
Am I being too bullish or bearish on any leagues? The ACC and the Big 12 could end up being 1.5 over my projection depending on how the standings shake out but I think right now they’re likely to be 5 or 6 and 6 or 7, respectively.
Would think B12 gets in more than B1G based on everything we know but will be close as always.
The bottom 4 of the Big 12 is separating itself out.
Texas Tech's best win is over #145 Louisiana Tech and is now 0-4 in the league.
Oklahoma State's best win is over #77 Sam Houston State and is 1-3 in the league.
Oklahoma has some decent wins but they're just 10-6, lost to that Sam Houston State team, and 1-3 in the league.
West Virginia also has some decent wins but they're 10-5 and 0-3 in the league.
One of them probably gets in but I dunno if two of them get there.
Those lower level Big 12 teams may need to win their SEC matchups in late January or they will be in deep trouble IMO.
Texas Tech plays at LSU. WVU hosts Auburn. Oklahoma hosts Alabama. Baylor hosts Arkansas. Oklahoma State hosts Ole Miss. Let's day WVU loses and is 10-6 their other 15 conference games. If they go 6-9, they are 16-15 overall. That record is a big danger zone. Teams do get in with a weak winning % but it is not common.
Texas Tech plays at LSU. WVU hosts Auburn. Oklahoma hosts Alabama. Baylor hosts Arkansas. Oklahoma State hosts Ole Miss. Let's day WVU loses and is 10-6 their other 15 conference games. If they go 6-9, they are 16-15 overall. That record is a big danger zone. Teams do get in with a weak winning % but it is not common.
Basically on target. Wake has a real shot in the ACC. The Mountain West will not get 4 this season. The only way CUSA gets a 2nd is if Fla Atlantic does not win the conference tourney, Big 10 has 12 schools competing for bids. I have seen some guys have 11 schools in at that moment...wont happen but 9 is a real possibility.
A higher percentage of teams perhaps, but it seems very unlikely the B12 will get more total teams in the field. Their conference only has 10 teams and 4 of them haven’t recorded a win yet over teams currently projected to make the field. It would take a ton of parity for them to get 7 or more in my opinion. And TT would also need to basically lose out (to pad the win columns for the others).
Wouldn’t be so sure on Mountain West. Teams have gaudy records and need some western teams.
New Mexico 15-2
San Diego 13-3
Utah State 14-3 All three get in if tourney today. That leaves:
Nevada 14-4
Boise State 12-4
UNLV 12-3.
Could very well be a four bid league.
Wachtel’s bracket has 10 BIG teams. Seems unlikely but not impossible. Really depends which teams hover around 500ish and some of our teams would get in at 9-11 (loss count of 14). Illinois has those sparking neutral wins over UCLA and Texas.
RPI is very weird at this point in the season.
Utah clocks in at 9th in the Pac-12 and 124th nationally.... despite being 5-1 in conference play.
Maryland is apparently 3rd best in the Big Ten and 33rd nationally, despite a 2-3 conference record with blowout losses at Michigan and Rutgers.
Charleston is ranked higher than UCLA, and Ohio State is ranked lower than Louisiana. Hofstra is apparently better positioned than Rutgers right now.
Utah clocks in at 9th in the Pac-12 and 124th nationally.... despite being 5-1 in conference play.
Maryland is apparently 3rd best in the Big Ten and 33rd nationally, despite a 2-3 conference record with blowout losses at Michigan and Rutgers.
Charleston is ranked higher than UCLA, and Ohio State is ranked lower than Louisiana. Hofstra is apparently better positioned than Rutgers right now.
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Other notable movement yesterday:
Marquette jumped from 22 to 17 with the win over UConn
Uconn and Purdue swapped places, Purdue back up to 3, UConn down to 4. A road win at the #3 team is a HUGE feather in our cap.
Boise State jumped to 25. Three Mountain West teams in the top 25, plus Nevada at #34. Gotta figure that league will have 3+ teams dancing.
West Virginia home loss to Baylor drops them from 20 to 29. They are in real jeopardy IMO of sliding out of the bubble as the year progresses.
Indiana dropped from 27 to 37. Mayday! until/unless X and Race return.
Michigan State up from 48 to 41.
Northwestern slides from 45 to 51.
Penn State made a big jump from 67 to 52, which is still only the 10th ranked team in the Big Ten.
Marquette jumped from 22 to 17 with the win over UConn
Uconn and Purdue swapped places, Purdue back up to 3, UConn down to 4. A road win at the #3 team is a HUGE feather in our cap.
Boise State jumped to 25. Three Mountain West teams in the top 25, plus Nevada at #34. Gotta figure that league will have 3+ teams dancing.
West Virginia home loss to Baylor drops them from 20 to 29. They are in real jeopardy IMO of sliding out of the bubble as the year progresses.
Indiana dropped from 27 to 37. Mayday! until/unless X and Race return.
Michigan State up from 48 to 41.
Northwestern slides from 45 to 51.
Penn State made a big jump from 67 to 52, which is still only the 10th ranked team in the Big Ten.
RPI has never made any sense to me.
Are you saying Hofstra has a higher RPI Than RU?
This isn’t me complaining, I’m genuinely curious what mathematical formula being being used that ranks an 11-7 Hofstra team with a loss to North Carolina A&T higher than RU?
RPI takes 25% your record, 50% your opponents' records, and 25% your opponents' opponents' records. RU jumped 18 places in RPI last night to 49... right behind St. Louis (11-6) and 9 spots behind Oral Roberts (13-4). Meanwhile, Northwestern drops to 56th (ahead of Ohio State at 58).
NET certainly has its problems, but RPI isn't some shining example of "getting it right".
RU is now #18
Results:
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
3 - @Purdue (W)
14 - @Ohio St (L*)
36 - @Miami (L)
51 - @Northwestern (W)
Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
37 - Indiana (W)
38 - Maryland (W)
40 - Iowa (L)
71 - Seton Hall (L)
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
81 - Wake Forest (W)
129 - UMass-Lowell (W)
159 - (N) Temple (L)
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 141+ Away)
238 - Rider (W)
285 - Coppin St (W)
295 - Bucknell (W)
320 - Sacred Heart (W)
334 - Central CT St (W)
346 - Columbia (W)
Upcoming
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
14 - Ohio St
26 - @Illinois
37 - @Indiana
40 - @Iowa
41 - @MSU
41 - (N)MSU
52 - @Penn St
61 - @Wisconsin
Q2 (31-75 Home, 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
51 - Northwestern
52 - Penn St
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
78 - Michigan
96 - Nebraska
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 241+ Away)
241 - Minnesota
241 - @Minnesota
Notes:
- Indiana falls to Q2
- Michigan still flirting with Q2 but can't commit
- @Minnesota in the same boat with Q3
Results:
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
3 - @Purdue (W)
14 - @Ohio St (L*)
36 - @Miami (L)
51 - @Northwestern (W)
Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
37 - Indiana (W)
38 - Maryland (W)
40 - Iowa (L)
71 - Seton Hall (L)
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
81 - Wake Forest (W)
129 - UMass-Lowell (W)
159 - (N) Temple (L)
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 141+ Away)
238 - Rider (W)
285 - Coppin St (W)
295 - Bucknell (W)
320 - Sacred Heart (W)
334 - Central CT St (W)
346 - Columbia (W)
Upcoming
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
14 - Ohio St
26 - @Illinois
37 - @Indiana
40 - @Iowa
41 - @MSU
41 - (N)MSU
52 - @Penn St
61 - @Wisconsin
Q2 (31-75 Home, 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
51 - Northwestern
52 - Penn St
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
78 - Michigan
96 - Nebraska
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 241+ Away)
241 - Minnesota
241 - @Minnesota
Notes:
- Indiana falls to Q2
- Michigan still flirting with Q2 but can't commit
- @Minnesota in the same boat with Q3
With RPI don't forget,
0.6 Home win/ 1.0 Neutral win/ 1.4 home loss
1.4 Road win/ 1.0 Neutral loss/ 0.6 road loss
For example Rutgers(12-5)
Home 10-2, 6.0-2.8
Neutral 0-1, 0-1.0
Road 2-2, 2.8-1.2
RPI Record 8.8-5.0
That BS kept us out once with Bannon and once with Waters
0.6 Home win/ 1.0 Neutral win/ 1.4 home loss
1.4 Road win/ 1.0 Neutral loss/ 0.6 road loss
For example Rutgers(12-5)
Home 10-2, 6.0-2.8
Neutral 0-1, 0-1.0
Road 2-2, 2.8-1.2
RPI Record 8.8-5.0
That BS kept us out once with Bannon and once with Waters
Oral Roberts (13-4... but 4 games against non-D1)
Home 5-0, 3.0-0
Road 4-4, 6.4-2.4
RPI Record 9.4-2.4
Their big road wins are against Texas Southern, Tulsa, Omaha, and Denver. They've played 4 teams with a pulse (Houston, St. Mary's, Utah St, New Mexico) and went 0-4. Their best win is over Liberty.
But they're 9 ranks higher in RPI than we are with wins @Purdue, @Northwestern, vs. Indiana, vs. Maryland, and vs. Wake Forest
Schedule of Strength and the 25/50/25 plays into it,but I never, going back when the RPI wad the only tool and printed in the newspapers in the 80s and 90s only,. liked how they unfairly weighted road wins against losing record teams over big home wins against winning record teams, it never balanced out the way it should have.
Bannon (98-99) 18-12
H 11-4 Road 5-6 N 2-2 (16.6-11.2)
Waters (03-04) 16-12(NIT run 20-13)
H 13-2 R 2-9 N 1-1 (11.2-9.2)
2 losses at home were 1 PT loss to #1 UConn, 2pt loss to Seton Hall, 6 losses, 4 on the road, 6pts or less. That team should've been an at large with Douby.
Yes - RPI ends up rewarding you for playing D2 teams rather than RPI 300+ teams because D2 teams are ignored in the formula. That’s the deal with Oral Roberts. A whole bunch of their home games were D2 teams. So those don’t count in the formula and they get a huge boost because it seems like they played on the road more than they did.
great link with visible link to everyones team sheets on one page
with respect to the Mountain West, clearly the San Diego State at the top, the net numbers may be gaudy but schools like Utah State do not even have quality wins and the Aggies have 2 Q4 losses so that 24 ranking should be taken with a grain of salt. If I made a bracket today I wouldnt have them in, not even close actually. Boise State and Nevada are much better positioned but even they would be positioned among the last 4 in or out. New Mexico put up gaudy numbers initially riding a win at St Marys but they need to actually build a resume. UNLV has a long way to go. I think 3 eventually make it in
Bubbletology games of note last night:
Arkansas fell to 1-3 in the SEC. They're not in any danger yet but Trevon Brazile is out for the season and anticipated lottery pick Nick Smith Jr. has barely played with a knee inury. Keep an eye on their next two: At Vanderbilt and at Missouri.
Creighton is down to 9-8. All 8 losses are to top-100 teams but they've got to start stacking some wins soon. A home game is next against Providence.
West Virginia lost at home to Baylor to fall to 0-4 in the Big 12, another result separating the top 6 from the bottom 4 of that league. They've got a someone's-gotta-win game against Oklahoma next.
Indiana is hurtling toward the NIT with another big loss.
UCF knocked off Memphis in double OT in Orlando. AAC is very much alive for three bids but if UCF sweeps Memphis...
UNLV took a home loss to Boise State.
Charleston bolstered their at-large resume with a win at UNC-W. They're now 17-1 with the only loss to UNC. No wins over tournament teams but the CAA is a potential bid thief league if they keep rolling and then stumble in the conference tournament.
Lurking: Texas A&M (3-0 in the SEC), Syracuse (4-2 in the ACC), Wake Forest (4-2 in the ACC)
Fading: Virginia Tech (1-5 in the ACC), Mississippi State (1-4 since an 11-0 start)
Arkansas fell to 1-3 in the SEC. They're not in any danger yet but Trevon Brazile is out for the season and anticipated lottery pick Nick Smith Jr. has barely played with a knee inury. Keep an eye on their next two: At Vanderbilt and at Missouri.
Creighton is down to 9-8. All 8 losses are to top-100 teams but they've got to start stacking some wins soon. A home game is next against Providence.
West Virginia lost at home to Baylor to fall to 0-4 in the Big 12, another result separating the top 6 from the bottom 4 of that league. They've got a someone's-gotta-win game against Oklahoma next.
Indiana is hurtling toward the NIT with another big loss.
UCF knocked off Memphis in double OT in Orlando. AAC is very much alive for three bids but if UCF sweeps Memphis...
UNLV took a home loss to Boise State.
Charleston bolstered their at-large resume with a win at UNC-W. They're now 17-1 with the only loss to UNC. No wins over tournament teams but the CAA is a potential bid thief league if they keep rolling and then stumble in the conference tournament.
Lurking: Texas A&M (3-0 in the SEC), Syracuse (4-2 in the ACC), Wake Forest (4-2 in the ACC)
Fading: Virginia Tech (1-5 in the ACC), Mississippi State (1-4 since an 11-0 start)
Mostly very good updates except I don’t think Syracuse is anywhere near “lurking”. Honestly - 3 of their ACC wins may as well be American East wins. They won @ UofL, home vs BC and @ ND.
Indiana is not hurtling towards the NIT. They’re in the NIT if they win 5-6 more games, they’re hurtling towards watching selection Sunday from the couch all together
With up to 14 conference games to go ALOT IS going to change for all these schools...too early
Good take. And the fact that most people have Creighton in and Nebraska with no shot is probably right, but also another indication of how deep the Big 10 is. Nebraska beat Creighton by 10 points at Creighton. Also Xavier did not beat a single decent power 5 team out of conference and lost at home to Indiana. They are feasting in the weak half of the Big East. Similarly, Marquette has 1 good OOC win, but lost to both Purdue and Wisconsin (and the Wisconsin game was at Xavier).
Xavier passes the eye test though. They looked good against UConn and Nova and nice back and forth win against Creighton. Fremantle is good. Teaneck? Did we try to recruit him?
St. Danny lost another bad game. This board may erupt but he should win much more than he does with the talent he has. See NCAAS last two years.
Marquette and Providence are the toughest for me to figure. Are they good or is league overrated?
St. Danny lost another bad game. This board may erupt but he should win much more than he does with the talent he has. See NCAAS last two years.
Marquette and Providence are the toughest for me to figure. Are they good or is league overrated?
Cuse is lurking and they inevitably get better as year goes along. Powers that be love Cuse too.
Xavier beat West Virginia at home, Florida on a neutral, and won at Cincinnati. They did plenty enough in non-conference and now they've already beaten UConn and Creighton in the Big East. The Indiana loss will age poorly but that's when IU was at full strength, and their only other losses are to Duke and Gonzaga.
The ACC is like the Big 10, they have a ton of the teams in the mix for bids. They're just going to get fewer than the Big 10.
Clemson, Miami, Virginia, Duke, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Syracuse, North Carolina, and NC State all have viable paths. 5 or 6 of them will get there.
Clemson is going to get there because of a clown schedule. Duke once, Virginia once, North Carolina once, Miami once, Pittsburgh once. Double plays against Louisville, Florida State, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and a rapidly deteriorating Virginia Tech. Good god that could not be easier.
Clemson, Miami, Virginia, Duke, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Syracuse, North Carolina, and NC State all have viable paths. 5 or 6 of them will get there.
Clemson is going to get there because of a clown schedule. Duke once, Virginia once, North Carolina once, Miami once, Pittsburgh once. Double plays against Louisville, Florida State, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and a rapidly deteriorating Virginia Tech. Good god that could not be easier.
That soft schedule is a double edged sword. I have a coworker that is a Clemson guy and we were talking hoops earlier. They have two Q4 losses saddling their net at 59. They have only four games left to add "good" wins that pump the resume. I could see them being like Big Ten teams have in the past with a gaudy overall record but left for the NIT because of the lack of high profile wins.
Currently, these are Clemson's best wins:
home vs #28 NC State by 14
at #58 Virginia Tech (in freefall, as kc8 stated) by three
at #64 Pitt by a point
home vs #52 Penn State by seven
home #81 Wake Forest by 20
That's it for wins over the top 100.
Add in a two point loss at #245 South Carolina and an 18 pt neutral site to #265 Loyola-Chicago, and their resume is not strong right now.
Similar to Wake last year who all the January bracketologists had as a lock last year.
Too early to lock them in
Wow, playing the likes of West Virginia, Florida, Cincinatti, Indiana, Duke and Gonzaga in your non-conference schedule should be worth something.
Sort of surprised how bad Va Tech and Notre Dame fell off this year.
Pitt really blew a resume building win vs Duke
