OFFICIAL NET Thread - 2022/23

[kcg88]

Possible 2-bid leagues:
The A10 has virtually no chance at an at-large bid IMO. Ditto A-Sun (I'm not saying in theory that Liberty can't go undefeated, lose in the title game, and get a bid, just that I think there's basically no chance that actually happens). CAA pretty unlikely. CUSA quite likely. MAC no.

On the other side, the WCC is pretty much a lock for 2 with a shot at three if neither Zaga/SMC win the conference. So overall your estimate of 8 bids from that group looks good IMO but I think the extras are overwhelmingly likely to come from CUSA/WCC

MWC looks more like 4-4.5 than 3.5 IMO. Anywhere from 3-5 I can see.. we've got San Diego St, New Mexico, and Boise all very likely, and we could get both Nevada and Utah St. Or neither. Most likely one. And either of those teams or UNLV could win the conf tourney as well.

ACC is prob 6.5-7. I wouldn't count out VT despite their recent terrible stretch. We've got 5 very likely in Virginia, Duke, NC State, NC, Miami, and then Pitt, VT, Clemson, WF all still in it. Would be very unsurprised to see anywhere from 1-3 of that group make it.

B12 would put at 7.5. 6 near locks, but I think there are plenty of scenarios where 2 of the bottom 4 manage to separate themselves out.

SEC agree with 6 as the base case but I can see 5 (only one out of Missouri, TAMU, Ky, Florida, Mississippi St) or 7 (3 of that group). Even a situation where only Bama, Tennessee, Auburn, and Arkansas makes it isn't completely out of the question, though unlikely.

So for the Big Ten I feel this puts us more at 7.5 than 8.5. Sure, there are 12 possible candidates.

2 near locks: Purdue and Rutgers
2 very likely: Illinois and Ohio St.

Everyone else is questionable:
Iowa
Penn St.
Indiana
Michigan St.
Northwestern
Maryland
Wisconsin
Michigan

I wouldn't be overly surprised to see any of these teams in the tournament. I wouldn't be overly surprised to see any of these teams miss the tournament. I can imagine scenarios from 6 bids all the way to 9.

Always happy to get your input. I'd push back on the CUSA being "quite likely." North Texas and UAB don't have at large profiles, and if they're the #2 and #3 seeds in the tournament then FAU only needs to beat one of them. I think it might be 50/50 right now, but there's enough chance that another conference has a bid thief that my assumption of 8 feels right.

Big 12 is tricky because any team really could go on a run. They're the opposite of the ACC so far. I just don't see how more than one out of OU, OkSt, WVU, and TTU gets there. Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Texas Tech all need to go better than .500 the rest of the way just to get to 7-11 in the league, and even that might not be enough. Wildcard is the Big 12/SEC Challenge a week from Saturday.

In the Mountain West Utah State already has two Q4 losses and they haven't gotten a Q1 win yet. They have a decent amount of work to do despite a shiny NET ranking. And the bottom of that league (Air Force, SJSU, Wyoming) is much stronger than it typically is so I think there are going to be more losses overall in the top 4 than last year. Three teams got to 14-4 or better last year, I don't think that happens this year. They're definitely not getting all five there, imo.

 

[fluoxetine]

Iowa looks just too good to be left out.
Will be very curious what the Committee does with Indiana and Wisc. Will they get healthy soon enough?
I just can’t imagine Committee leaving out both MSU and Michigan.
Northwestern and PSU are the confounding ones as truly don’t know what to make of them and think committe will have same admitted bias.
PSU petrifies me. Appear like Iowa. If they hit their threes they can beat anybody. I have liked our match up with MW.

I think Iowa probably makes it, Indiana coin flip, Wisc probably not (they just aren't that good despite good current record). MSU coin flip, UMich probably not. Northwestern coin flip, PSU weighted coin flip (more likely than not but nowhere near a lock).

All these teams good enough to make it but someone has to lose the games.. even among evenly matched teams its not that likely everyone goes 10-10.

Always happy to get your input. I'd push back on the CUSA being "quite likely." North Texas and UAB don't have at large profiles, and if they're the #2 and #3 seeds in the tournament then FAU only needs to beat one of them. I think it might be 50/50 right now, but there's enough chance that another conference has a bid thief that my assumption of 8 feels right.

Big 12 is tricky because any team really could go on a run. They're the opposite of the ACC so far. I just don't see how more than one out of OU, OkSt, WVU, and TTU gets there. Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Texas Tech all need to go better than .500 the rest of the way just to get to 7-11 in the league, and even that might not be enough. Wildcard is the Big 12/SEC Challenge a week from Saturday.

In the Mountain West Utah State already has two Q4 losses and they haven't gotten a Q1 win yet. They have a decent amount of work to do despite a shiny NET ranking. And the bottom of that league (Air Force, SJSU, Wyoming) is much stronger than it typically is so I think there are going to be more losses overall in the top 4 than last year. Three teams got to 14-4 or better last year, I don't think that happens this year. They're definitely not getting all five there, imo.

"quite likely" sloppy wording on my part, I agree with 50/50.

The thing with the MWC IMO is not that that they will have 5 at-large worthy teams (it's possible but I agree Utah St is on the outside looking in and Nevada is far from a lock). BUT, I think they have 3 near locks (so say 3 bids) + like a 40% chance that someone else wins the conference tournament (Nevada, Utah St, UNLV could all do it - so 3.4 bids) + like an expected 1 more bid out of Nevada/Utah St (so 4.4 bids.. but some double counting with the conference tournament and Nevada/Utah St at larges, so maybe like 4.1 or something)

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I’m not seeing that much chance of the B12 getting more than 7. Among the other 3, WVU is probably the only one to get in if they can somehow turn things around. They have wins @Pitt and Florida which are decent.

TT is still 0-7 vs Q1 and 2 and only 2-0 vs Q3. Oklahoma State has losses to Southern Illinois, VTech and UCF. No no -conf at large caliber wins either. Not seeing it for either of them.

 

[fluoxetine]

I’m not seeing that much chance of the B12 getting more than 7. Among the other 3, WVU is probably the only one to get in if they can somehow turn things around. They have wins @Pitt and Florida which are decent.

TT is still 0-7 vs Q1 and 2 and only 2-0 vs Q3. Oklahoma State has losses to Southern Illinois, VTech and UCF. No no -conf at large caliber wins either. Not seeing it for either of them.

Only Southern Illinois is a bad loss out of those. UCF is quad 1 and VT is barely into Q2 and may still end up Q1.

 

[fluoxetine]

They are 1-6 vs Q1 but their 14 remaining games are

11 Q1
2 Q2
1 Q3

Not saying they are a favorite to make it but the opportunities are there.

 

[kcg88]

There are opportunities but 1-4 and 0-5 is a bad hole to dig when there are no easy wins.

Give Ok State a home win over Ole Miss in the SEC Challenge. Even then they need to 7-6 in their final thirteen Big 12 games to get to 17-14.

 

[bac2therac]

There are opportunities but 1-4 and 0-5 is a bad hole to dig when there are no easy wins.

Give Ok State a home win over Ole Miss in the SEC Challenge. Even then they need to 7-6 in their final thirteen Big 12 games to get to 17-14.

That record wont get them in.

 

[goru7]

The BIG 12 is clearly the strongest league by all the metrics and every team playing the top of the conference tough every night gives them an edge over the BIG 10 which does the same but the Big 12 is appreciably higher. So Oklahoma , Oklahoma State and WVU ( not Texas Tech 0-7 in Quad 1-2) on the bubble against Wisconsin , Indiana , Penn State , Michigan , Penn State or Northwestern are going to get the nod. Maybe 1 or 2 and I can easily see 8 from the BIg 12.
No way in hell the BIG 10 is getting 11. Lucky to get 9 this year, as the rankings and metrics and Kenpom have shown.
There will undoubtedly be numerous bid stealers this year from Conference USA , Mountain West , PAC 12 and maybe the BiG East . Even if Duke and UNC struggle or play 500 the rest of the way they will not be left out. ACC has a chance for more bids than I think they deserve with Clemson , Pittsburgh , Va Tech still with a decent chance and also Wake Forest is not dead yet even with their 75 NET.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

The BIG 12 is clearly the strongest league by all the metrics and every team playing the top of the conference tough every night gives them an edge over the BIG 10 which does the same but the Big 12 is appreciably higher. So Oklahoma , Oklahoma State and WVU ( not Texas Tech 0-7 in Quad 1-2) on the bubble against Wisconsin , Indiana , Penn State , Michigan , Penn State or Northwestern are going to get the nod. Maybe 1 or 2 and I can easily see 8 from the BIg 12.
No way in hell the BIG 10 is getting 11. Lucky to get 9 this year, as the rankings and metrics and Kenpom have shown.
There will undoubtedly be numerous bid stealers this year from Conference USA , Mountain West , PAC 12 and maybe the BiG East . Even if Duke and UNC struggle or play 500 the rest of the way they will not be left out. ACC has a chance for more bids than I think they deserve with Clemson , Pittsburgh , Va Tech still with a decent chance and also Wake Forest is not dead yet even with their 75 NET.

Va. Tech is fading fast, like Indiana typically does every year. 🤣

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

They are 1-6 vs Q1 but their 14 remaining games are

11 Q1
2 Q2
1 Q3

Not saying they are a favorite to make it but the opportunities are there.

I think a projection of 7.5 is too high.

IMO it’s much more likely that only 6 schools make it than that 2 of those bottom 4 get in. They still have the SEC challenge to improve non-conference resume, but right now none of those schools did enough out of conference to warrant getting in with an under 500 conf record.

 

[LeapinLou]

I like that you guys are talking about the bubble and the discussion isn't RU related because we are so far above it.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

The BIG 12 is clearly the strongest league by all the metrics and every team playing the top of the conference tough every night gives them an edge over the BIG 10 which does the same but the Big 12 is appreciably higher. So Oklahoma , Oklahoma State and WVU ( not Texas Tech 0-7 in Quad 1-2) on the bubble against Wisconsin , Indiana , Penn State , Michigan , Penn State or Northwestern are going to get the nod. Maybe 1 or 2 and I can easily see 8 from the BIg 12.

No way in hell the BIG 10 is getting 11. Lucky to get 9 this year, as the rankings and metrics and Kenpom have shown.
There will undoubtedly be numerous bid stealers this year from Conference USA , Mountain West , PAC 12 and maybe the BiG East . Even if Duke and UNC struggle or play 500 the rest of the way they will not be left out. ACC has a chance for more bids than I think they deserve with Clemson , Pittsburgh , Va Tech still with a decent chance and also Wake Forest is not dead yet even with their 75 NET

It’d be really hard for the B12 to get 8 because in their conference, it’s the bottom teams that lack the quality non-conference wins.

So while I don’t think the 11th place team in the BIG will end up getting a bid - Indiana (current 11th at 11-6) as an example with wins @ Xavier, UNC and Wisconsin, is much better positioned than Oklahoma State (current 8th at 9-8) with wins @ Wichita, WVU and Sam Houston. It’s not even close.

 

[fluoxetine]

It’d be really hard for the B12 to get 8 because in their conference, it’s the bottom teams that lack the quality non-conference wins.

So while I don’t think the 11th place team in the BIG will end up getting a bid - Indiana (current 11th at 11-6) as an example with wins @ Xavier, UNC and Wisconsin, is much better positioned than Oklahoma State (current 8th at 9-8) with wins @ Wichita, WVU and Sam Houston. It’s not even close.

Not sure what's going on in your post lol but the top quote is attributed to me.. but it's not my post.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Not sure what's going on in your post lol but the top quote is attributed to me.. but it's not my post.

I’m not sure either!

 

[RUChoppin]

The BIG 12 is clearly the strongest league by all the metrics and every team playing the top of the conference tough every night gives them an edge over the BIG 10 which does the same but the Big 12 is appreciably higher. So Oklahoma , Oklahoma State and WVU ( not Texas Tech 0-7 in Quad 1-2) on the bubble against Wisconsin , Indiana , Penn State , Michigan , Penn State or Northwestern are going to get the nod. Maybe 1 or 2 and I can easily see 8 from the BIg 12.
No way in hell the BIG 10 is getting 11. Lucky to get 9 this year, as the rankings and metrics and Kenpom have shown.
There will undoubtedly be numerous bid stealers this year from Conference USA , Mountain West , PAC 12 and maybe the BiG East . Even if Duke and UNC struggle or play 500 the rest of the way they will not be left out. ACC has a chance for more bids than I think they deserve with Clemson , Pittsburgh , Va Tech still with a decent chance and also Wake Forest is not dead yet even with their 75 NET.

Big 12 also only has 10 teams, which works against them getting a high number invited. 70% of their conference is 7.... 70% of the Big Ten is 10.

 

[Zak57]

Dropped one more spot from to 17 to 18.

 

[RUChoppin]

Dropped one more spot from to 17 to 18.

Baylor jumped us after their win at Texas Tech. Wake is now 69.

 

[bac2therac]

Going forward its going to be more and more difficult to penetrate the top 15. I think Florida Atlantic could fall and Baylor/Xavier/Marquette can oscillate with RU but there really isnt much room to move up given the schools ranked ahead and their non conference performance and schedules. Yet as long as RU keeps playing RU ball and even in losses the games are close, RU should stay in the top 25 absent of a longer losing streak

 

[goru7]

It’d be really hard for the B12 to get 8 because in their conference, it’s the bottom teams that lack the quality non-conference wins.

So while I don’t think the 11th place team in the BIG will end up getting a bid - Indiana (current 11th at 11-6) as an example with wins @ Xavier, UNC and Wisconsin, is much better positioned than Oklahoma State (current 8th at 9-8) with wins @ Wichita, WVU and Sam Houston. It’s not even close.

What you are missing is how far the BIG 12 is ahead of all other conferences by a lot and only the BIG 10 is close They will pick an 8th BiG 12 team even with a 7-11 conference record over a 10-10 Big 10 or 9-11 conference record every time.
They have 5 teams in the top 16 , 7 in top 29 . Big 10 has 1 in top 16, 6 in top 33. If you give us Michigan State at 42 as our 7th, then the BIg 12’s 8th either Oklahoma at 45 or Okla State at 56 are fighting our Maryland at 50, Penn State at 52 , Northwestern at 59 , Wisconsin at 63 and Michigan at 75. That is our 8th - 12th.
Unless their record and the number of losses become overwhelming they are getting their 8th. I even think a 500 overall record gets Oklahoma and Oklahoma State gets in this year because how high the conference is rated. Their worst team Texas Tech is 72 , the BIG 10’s worst Minnesota is 216.

 

[jordkap]

The teams I honestly think make the field at the end of the day, in no order…

Purdue
Rutgers
Wisconsin
Iowa
Illinois
Michigan State
Michigan
Ohio State

Penn State and Northwestern will be bubble teams but fall just short. Indiana will fall short and be in that next 4 out or worse territory when all said and done.

 

[bac2therac]

What you are missing is how far the BIG 12 is ahead of all other conferences by a lot and only the BIG 10 is close They will pick an 8th BiG 12 team even with a 7-11 conference record over a 10-10 Big 10 or 9-11 conference record every time.
They have 5 teams in the top 16 , 7 in top 29 . Big 10 has 1 in top 16, 6 in top 33. If you give us Michigan State at 42 as our 7th, then the BIg 12’s 8th either Oklahoma at 45 or Okla State at 56 are fighting our Maryland at 50, Penn State at 52 , Northwestern at 59 , Wisconsin at 63 and Michigan at 75. That is our 8th - 12th.
Unless their record and the number of losses become overwhelming they are getting their 8th. I even think a 500 overall record gets Oklahoma and Oklahoma State gets in this year because how high the conference is rated. Their worst team Texas Tech is 72 , the BIG 10’s worst Minnesota is 216.

the committee has shown it will not take schools that are only two games or less above 500. Any school from Big 12 will not get unless they are like 18-15, 6-12 conference records will not get it done....they will get 6 for sure...Oklahoma no sure thing but good shot at 7....8 isnt happening unless those bottom schools do slightly above 500 the rest of the way..tall order

 

[goru7]

It’d be really hard for the B12 to get 8 because in their conference, it’s the bottom teams that lack the quality non-conference wins.

So while I don’t think the 11th place team in the BIG will end up getting a bid - Indiana (current 11th at 11-6) as an example with wins @ Xavier, UNC and Wisconsin, is much better positioned than Oklahoma State (current 8th at 9-8) with wins @ Wichita, WVU and Sam Houston. It’s not even close.

Their 8th place team is Oklahoma not Oklahoma state. They are 11-6. Their losses are home to Sam Houston by 1 ( 47) ; away to Villanova by 4 (101) ; neutral to Arkansas by 10 (27) ; home to Texas by 1 (11); home to Iowa State by 3 ( 8) and away to Kansas by 4 (6). That resume is a lot better than anyone in the Big 10 below Michigan State which is the BiG 10’s 7th team. You must compare to Maryland , Penn State , Northwestern , Wisconsin and Michigan. Their worst loss is to Villanova the only team outside the field right now and losing to #11, # 8 and # 6 back to back to back by 1,3, and 4 points proves they are a tournament team.

 

[goru7]

the committee has shown it will not take schools that are only two games or less above 500. Any school from Big 12 will not get unless they are like 18-15, 6-12 conference records will not get it done....they will get 6 for sure...Oklahoma no sure thing but good shot at 7....8 isnt happening unless those bottom schools do slightly above 500 the rest of the way..tall order

I respectfully disagree this year. When it was perceived the BiG 10 was the best conference the last 2-3 years we have gotten 9 or 10 teams in. The only thing that will change that thinking going forward is the upcoming BIG 12 / SEC games coming up next Saturday. If the BIG 12 falls flat on their ass and loses the challenge then their lead over all the other conferences shrinks. But it they win the challenge then it is clear they have a huge advantage of getting 8 teams in over other conferences

 

[kcg88]

Their 8th place team is Oklahoma not Oklahoma state. They are 11-6. Their losses are home to Sam Houston by 1 ( 47) ; away to Villanova by 4 (101) ; neutral to Arkansas by 10 (27) ; home to Texas by 1 (11); home to Iowa State by 3 ( 8) and away to Kansas by 4 (6). That resume is a lot better than anyone in the Big 10 below Michigan State which is the BiG 10’s 7th team. You must compare to Maryland , Penn State , Northwestern , Wisconsin and Michigan. Their worst loss is to Villanova the only team outside the field right now and losing to #11, # 8 and # 6 back to back to back by 1,3, and 4 points proves they are a tournament team.

Problem for Oklahoma is they need to go 6-8 the rest of the way to get to 17-14. Six wins against this schedule:

Road: Oklahoma State, TCU, West Virginia, Baylor, Texas, Iowa State, Kansas State.

They can get two of these but 3-4 against that set of teams on the road feels like a lot.

Home: Baylor, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU.

I'll give them Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Can they get two more?

 

[bac2therac]

Oklahoma is in 7th and their resume is poor. 0-4 vs schools projected to make field...0-5 if you project Sam Houston to win their league

not all Q1 wins are equal..their 3 wins are all against schools not projected to make the tourney...those wins are WVU, Texas Tech and Florida...not so hot in the quality department

Need a ton of work

Plenty of Big 10 schools have better resumes than OU who I would not have in the field as of this moment

 

[kcg88]

Resume right now is only a part of it. You have to picture what these teams will look like at the end of the year, and what the general bubble climate will be.

 

[goru7]

Problem for Oklahoma is they need to go 6-8 the rest of the way to get to 17-14. Six wins against this schedule:

Road: Oklahoma State, TCU, West Virginia, Baylor, Texas, Iowa State, Kansas State.

They can get two of these but 3-4 against that set of teams on the road feels like a lot.

Home: Baylor, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU.

I'll give them Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Can they get two more?

You are right they have to break thru and win some games against the top 6 in the league. Looking over their wins , they have not beaten anyone in the field for sure except for maybe WvU as their wins against Florida and Seton Hall are both decent but both teams have their work cut out to make the bubble. They had a 15 lead at Kansas and blew it so they have to get those top 6 either home or away 2-3 times.

 

[goru7]

Problem for Oklahoma is they need to go 6-8 the rest of the way to get to 17-14. Six wins against this schedule:

Road: Oklahoma State, TCU, West Virginia, Baylor, Texas, Iowa State, Kansas State.

They can get two of these but 3-4 against that set of teams on the road feels like a lot.

Home: Baylor, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU.

I'll give them Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Can they get two more?

Getting Alabama at home and getting Kansas or Kansas State and TCU and Baylor would seal it for them. They are a decent road team so they have a chance but like you say it will not be easy.

 

[bac2therac]

Resume right now is only a part of it. You have to picture what these teams will look like at the end of the year, and what the general bubble climate will be.

Right now they have absolutely nothing. Thats why bracketology is just too early..

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Their 8th place team is Oklahoma not Oklahoma state. They are 11-6. Their losses are home to Sam Houston by 1 ( 47) ; away to Villanova by 4 (101) ; neutral to Arkansas by 10 (27) ; home to Texas by 1 (11); home to Iowa State by 3 ( 8) and away to Kansas by 4 (6). That resume is a lot better than anyone in the Big 10 below Michigan State which is the BiG 10’s 7th team. You must compare to Maryland , Penn State , Northwestern , Wisconsin and Michigan. Their worst loss is to Villanova the only team outside the field right now and losing to #11, # 8 and # 6 back to back to back by 1,3, and 4 points proves they are a tournament team.

Oklahoma is 7th. Okie State is 8th. They are 9-8 and don’t have anything close to a NCAA resume.

Also - why are you only looking at losses and not wins? If you only play Q1 and Q4 games it doesn’t mean a whole lot that you win the Q4 games if you don’t win any Q1 games. Even if the losses are close. The committee doesn’t care about being “close” if you beat nobody or hardly ever win after many many tries.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I respectfully disagree this year. When it was perceived the BiG 10 was the best conference the last 2-3 years we have gotten 9 or 10 teams in. The only thing that will change that thinking going forward is the upcoming BIG 12 / SEC games coming up next Saturday. If the BIG 12 falls flat on their ass and loses the challenge then their lead over all the other conferences shrinks. But it they win the challenge then it is clear they have a huge advantage of getting 8 teams in over other conferences

That’s not true. Teams make the tournament. Not conferences. At the moment, Maryland’s win over Miami (neutral), Indiana’s win @ Xavier, and Wisconsin’s win @ Marquette are all better wins than any win by any of the bottom 4 B12 teams. That is a huge factor.

 

[goru7]

Oklahoma is 7th. Okie State is 8th. They are 9-8 and don’t have anything close to a NCAA resume.

Also - why are you only looking at losses and not wins? If you only play Q1 and Q4 games it doesn’t mean a whole lot that you win the Q4 games if you don’t win any Q1 games. Even if the losses are close. The committee doesn’t care about being “close” if you beat nobody or hardly ever win after many many tries.

I am going by NET and WVU is 29th and the 7th place team and Oklahoma at 45 is the 8th place team. After further examination of Oklahoma ‘s resume , they are lacking wins against teams in the field for sure , but they also get 13 more Quad 1 opportunities. By them losing to Kansas , Iowa State and Texas by 4,3, and 1 , in games they had second half leads , the law of averages clearly will lean on them getting 3-5 wins over Kansas, Kansas State .Baylor, Iowa State , Texas and TCU , unless you think they will continue to lose to all these teams. I do not.
So getting back to my major point is that the BIG 12 is so strong this year compared to the rest of the country , the Committee will reward them as the 8th team out of that conference over a 9th, 10th , 11 th team out of the BIG 10 or a 6th, 7th or 8 team out of the ACC or SEC.
Your point about the committee not looking at conferences but at teams is correct but if the conference is so much better than the rest then they have to evaluate them taking into account they play in the best conference . The upcoming BIG 12/SEC challenge will have the ability to change things. If Oklahoma beats Alabama at home that is a huge huge win for their resume.

 

[fluoxetine]

I argued for more B12 teams upthread, but according to Bart the B12 was even stronger last year.. and only got 6 teams.

 

[RUtrumpet92]

West Virginia has a LOT of work to do IMO to get in. They have two Q1 wins, no Q2 games, and only one Q game. Those wins are a neutral court blowout of Florida, a road blowout win over Pittsburgh, and a home win over UAB. At some point, you need to win games. 10-7 overall. Beating Auburn would be a major feather in their cap. If they lose that one, they are effectively 10-8 with 13 conference games remaining before the conference tournament. Let's say they go 6-7 and are 16-15. Not a chance of getting an at-large IMO if they would only be a game above .500 with a 1-1 conference tournament record. So they need to beat Auburn and/or go 7-6 or better in their remaining conference games to have a shot. Tall order for an 0-5 team.

Texas Tech is in bad shape at 10-8 (0-6). NET of 72, zero wins above Q3. Their challenge game is at LSU, so they could win that one. But at 11-8, again, you have to go 6-6 just to get to 17-14, and even that might not be enough with the middling net, unless the wins are against the top teams.

Oklahoma State at 9-8 / 1-5? They have a Q1 win over WVU at home and a Q2 win over Sam Houston State at home. Another "easy" SEC opponent in Ole Miss, so let's say they are 10-8. If they go 6-6 down the stretch in conference to finish 7-11 and 16-14 overall, that is a really ugly winning %. They might need a 7-5 or better stretch run to get in.

Oklahoma at least has a better overall record at 11-6. If they lose to Alabama as the odds would say, then sitting at 11-7 / 2-3 means a 6-7 run would put them at 17-14. That's nervous territory for sure.

I will say one of these four will add enough wins to be in the bubble mix on Selection Sunday but I don't see much chance of the league getting to eight bids.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

West Virginia has a LOT of work to do IMO to get in. They have two Q1 wins, no Q2 games, and only one Q game. Those wins are a neutral court blowout of Florida, a road blowout win over Pittsburgh, and a home win over UAB. At some point, you need to win games. 10-7 overall. Beating Auburn would be a major feather in their cap. If they lose that one, they are effectively 10-8 with 13 conference games remaining before the conference tournament. Let's say they go 6-7 and are 16-15. Not a chance of getting an at-large IMO if they would only be a game above .500 with a 1-1 conference tournament record. So they need to beat Auburn and/or go 7-6 or better in their remaining conference games to have a shot. Tall order for an 0-5 team.

Texas Tech is in bad shape at 10-8 (0-6). NET of 72, zero wins above Q3. Their challenge game is at LSU, so they could win that one. But at 11-8, again, you have to go 6-6 just to get to 17-14, and even that might not be enough with the middling net, unless the wins are against the top teams.

Oklahoma State at 9-8 / 1-5? They have a Q1 win over WVU at home and a Q2 win over Sam Houston State at home. Another "easy" SEC opponent in Ole Miss, so let's say they are 10-8. If they go 6-6 down the stretch in conference to finish 7-11 and 16-14 overall, that is a really ugly winning %. They might need a 7-5 or better stretch run to get in.

Oklahoma at least has a better overall record at 11-6. If they lose to Alabama as the odds would say, then sitting at 11-7 / 2-3 means a 6-7 run would put them at 17-14. That's nervous territory for sure.

I will say one of these four will add enough wins to be in the bubble mix on Selection Sunday but I don't see much chance of the league getting to eight bids.

This - but note that the loss count for each team would be +1 on selection Sunday unless they claim the auto bid, making matters even worse. None of them are getting in with 16 losses. And WVU would be the only one with even a chance with a 15 loss count in my opinion. You don’t make the field with a losing conference record, 15 losses and no notable non-conference wins. At least, I’m pretty sure it’s never happened before.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I am going by NET and WVU is 29th and the 7th place team and Oklahoma at 45 is the 8th place team. After further examination of Oklahoma ‘s resume , they are lacking wins against teams in the field for sure , but they also get 13 more Quad 1 opportunities. By them losing to Kansas , Iowa State and Texas by 4,3, and 1 , in games they had second half leads , the law of averages clearly will lean on them getting 3-5 wins over Kansas, Kansas State .Baylor, Iowa State , Texas and TCU , unless you think they will continue to lose to all these teams. I do not.
So getting back to my major point is that the BIG 12 is so strong this year compared to the rest of the country , the Committee will reward them as the 8th team out of that conference over a 9th, 10th , 11 th team out of the BIG 10 or a 6th, 7th or 8 team out of the ACC or SEC.
Your point about the committee not looking at conferences but at teams is correct but if the conference is so much better than the rest then they have to evaluate them taking into account they play in the best conference . The upcoming BIG 12/SEC challenge will have the ability to change things. If Oklahoma beats Alabama at home that is a huge huge win for their resume.

Fair enough - but the law of averages also say it’s not that likely that the same two bottom 4 remaining teams lose out against the other two. Someone has to lose the games when they play each other.

 

[RUChoppin]

Good results re: our OOC opponents:
65 Seton Hall defeats 7 UConn at home by 1
143 UMass-Lowell defeats 197 UMBC at home by 6
151 Temple defeats 215 East Carolina at home by 15
288 Bucknell defeats 221 Army away by 2

Not a great result in conference, since our home OSU win will no longer be Q1
24 Ohio State loses to 92 Nebraska on the road by 3

 

[goru7]

West Virginia has a LOT of work to do IMO to get in. They have two Q1 wins, no Q2 games, and only one Q game. Those wins are a neutral court blowout of Florida, a road blowout win over Pittsburgh, and a home win over UAB. At some point, you need to win games. 10-7 overall. Beating Auburn would be a major feather in their cap. If they lose that one, they are effectively 10-8 with 13 conference games remaining before the conference tournament. Let's say they go 6-7 and are 16-15. Not a chance of getting an at-large IMO if they would only be a game above .500 with a 1-1 conference tournament record. So they need to beat Auburn and/or go 7-6 or better in their remaining conference games to have a shot. Tall order for an 0-5 team.

Texas Tech is in bad shape at 10-8 (0-6). NET of 72, zero wins above Q3. Their challenge game is at LSU, so they could win that one. But at 11-8, again, you have to go 6-6 just to get to 17-14, and even that might not be enough with the middling net, unless the wins are against the top teams.

Oklahoma State at 9-8 / 1-5? They have a Q1 win over WVU at home and a Q2 win over Sam Houston State at home. Another "easy" SEC opponent in Ole Miss, so let's say they are 10-8. If they go 6-6 down the stretch in conference to finish 7-11 and 16-14 overall, that is a really ugly winning %. They might need a 7-5 or better stretch run to get in.

Oklahoma at least has a better overall record at 11-6. If they lose to Alabama as the odds would say, then sitting at 11-7 / 2-3 means a 6-7 run would put them at 17-14. That's nervous territory for sure.

I will say one of these four will add enough wins to be in the bubble mix on Selection Sunday but I don't see much chance of the league getting to eight bids.

Unless WVU goes and beats TCU another Quad 1 win which makes it 3 and now they are 11-7. Still work to do and like Oklahoma plenty of opportunities. I think WVU and Oklahoma are the 7 and 8 teams out of the BIG 12 . We will see but being in the BiG 12 with all those Quad 1 chances give them the best chance compared to all other teams on the bubble.

 

[fatsam98]

Good results re: our OOC opponents:
65 Seton Hall defeats 7 UConn at home by 1
143 UMass-Lowell defeats 197 UMBC at home by 6
151 Temple defeats 215 East Carolina at home by 15
288 Bucknell defeats 221 Army away by 2

Not a great result in conference, since our home OSU win will no longer be Q1
24 Ohio State loses to 92 Nebraska on the road by 3

Not so sure Ohio becomes Q2 with this loss. They only dropped a few spots when they lost to much lowlier Minnesota at home

 

[bac2therac]

Rutgers will pass Xavier tomorrow