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this seems to be the formula, with Oklahoma the most likely to win, and to ruin it for OSU...
if Georgia somehow beats Alabama, squeaking by, do they both get in?
OSU not in the mix?
- Thread starter RUich
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this seems to be the formula, with Oklahoma the most likely to win, and to ruin it for OSU...
if Georgia somehow beats Alabama, squeaking by, do they both get in?
Yes. The talking heads have done enough to discredit Oklahoma and Ohio State to justify dropping Alabama from #1 to #3 or #4 with a loss to Georgia. Georgia would be either #1 (since the talking heads have told us the Alabama is clearly the best team in the country) or #2 (jumping and then hosting Notre Dame in the Cotton). Georgia and Alabama would either be #1 and #3 or #2 and #4 in this scenario. I'll believe Alabama being out of the playoffs when I see it.
While I don't have a side in the Ohio State -- Michigan rivalry, I was rooting hard for Michigan because I wanted the B1G to get back into the playoffs this season. The only way Ohio State gets in would be to justify keeping UCF out in my opinion. Jerry Palm believes Ohio State gets in over Oklahoma, which I disagree with. His whole basis was that Oklahoma's defense was one of the worst in history for a 1-loss team without acknowledging the another side to that coin. Their offense is perhaps one of the best we've seen in a long time. The only team able to hold them under 30 was a 9-3 (or 10-2) triple option team who had 44:41 in TOP. Oklahoma only ran 40 offensive plays against Army who ran 87 total plays and 78 running plays. None of the potential playoff teams are capable of keeping Oklahoma's offense on the sideline like Army did.
I think a 1 loss Clemson team gets in over a 3 loss Texas team, even if Texas is Big 12 champ.
my theory when it came to UCF, was that it would take 2 undefeated seasons for them to be
seriously considered for the playoff
the first would have them finishing somewhere around 8th or 9th in the country...... if they then started the next season near that, and went undefeated again, they might make it up to number 4
this did not happen.... I guess no matter what they do, they cannot overcome the supposed
weak conference schedule....they would have needed to schedule maybe two out of conference
tough teams that would have been noticed.
UCF could go undefeated for the next 10 seasons. As long as we have a four-team playoff, UCF plays in the AAC, and its "marquee" wins are against the likes of Maryland and Pitt, UCF isn't getting in. Nor would it deserve to. I am a proponent of an eight-team playoff that includes an auto bid for the G5, but under the current format, those teams have no shot.
A loss to Pitt will call Clemson's schedule into question. Their best win was a two point win at 8-4 Texas A&M. A&M wasn't particularly strong either as their best win was the recent 7 OT win over LSU at home. Their other two divisional wins combined for 1 win (Ole Miss beat Arkansas for that). If you examine the "good teams" on Clemson's schedule, their excellence is based on being an ACC team. Syracuse might be their second best win and they also lost to Pitt and got stomped by Notre Dame. I have no doubt that UCF could have played Clemson's schedule and ended the season 12-0 as Clemson did. On the other hand, the only real blemish on Texas' record is the 5-point loss to Maryland in the opener and their three losses are by a combined 9 points (3 point loss to Oklahoma State and 1 point loss to West Virginia.
For reference of this discussion:
If you put Clemson in over Texas in the scenario discussed, we fans need to revolt. Get out the torches and pitch forks. This would be 1 conference champion, an independent, and 2 conference champion runner-ups. There was some discussion of limiting the playoffs to conference champions (and Notre Dame) which we would now be completely ignoring. "We're going to settle this thing on the field", they said until they didn't like the on field results.
I would have agreed with your theory. I've heard some mention around mid-season (on an American Athletic Conference telecast) that if UCF is left out after going undefeated again that we'll start hearing demands to expand the playoffs to eight teams. It will be interesting to see if the playoff expansion talk happens when UCF is excluded again. If so, I'll get the ball rolling on proposals everyone will disagree with:
- All P5 conference champions get an automatic bid
- The "best" G5 champion gets an automatic bid.
- Two wild cards, which can be from any P5 conference, independent, or G5 champion.
- Round 1 is played at the home of the higher ranked team. This is so we don't use bowl games like the Potato Bowl, Hawaii Bowl, or other pre-Christmas bowls as playoffs.
- Losers in Round 1 advance to a NY6 bowl while winners advance to the semi-final round. This means you would have 8 teams playing 15 games and two of those playing 16.
If Alabama and OSU win, OSU gets in. If Alabama loses, Georgia is in and OSU is out. I think as long as OSU wins, they will get in ahead of Oklahoma.
A two-loss Texas team, maybe. A three-loss Texas team, never. A three loss team from the SEC wouldn’t even get in if they were champs...and the Big Twelve is not the SEC.
OSU is getting knocked because they lost by double digits to a mediocre Purdue team whereas OU lost by 3 to the 9th ranked team in the current polls.
It's interesting if UGA wins. For starters, UGA would then have to be ranked over Bama. But you also don't want UGA and Bama to play in that first round.......... a back to back game?
So if UGA wins, I suspect Clemson goes to 1, ND to 2 or stays at 3, UGA goes to 2 or 3 and BAma goes to 4.
That way they avoid an immediate rematch of UGA-Bama.
The committee is surely feeling pressure to get a Big XII team in the playoff this year. Assuming OU takes care of business, I don't see how they don't get in. The Big XII states will be outraged if they get snubbed.
Auburn was 7-5 this year.
PAC 12 isn't even being mentioned for the 3rd time in 5 years.
A team that a Maryland team that didn't qualify for a bowl game out of the B1G beat this season for the second straight year. Iowa State, which regularly has been scoring 30-40 points against Big 12 teams, lost 13-3 to Iowa. I am not all that impressed with the Big 12.
But how do you justify selecting a 1-loss Clemson over an undefeated UCF when UCF defeated the unranked team (Pitt) who just defeated Clemson by a score of 45-14 about 2 months earlier? I think a 1-loss Clemson would need a Memphis win to give their selection credibility.
Dan Wetzel column on getting rid of the conference championships and instead starting the first round of an 8 team playoff this weekend.
https://sports.yahoo.com/college-football-playoff-doesnt-need-expansion-needs-reform-005615013.html
https://sports.yahoo.com/college-football-playoff-doesnt-need-expansion-needs-reform-005615013.html
The problem with your analysis is that you looking at it the way you think it should be, as oppose to the way the committee actually operates.
And yet that team is still ranked 9th and OU lost to them by 3 whereas OSU lost by nearly 30 to a mediocre Purdue team.
Let's try this another way.
What would your argument be here if OSU's only loss was by 3 to Penn State and OUs only loss was by 30 to Baylor?
There isn't a shred of doubt you'd argue OSU was the better team because they lost to the better team by less. You aren't being consistent, you just have BIG blinders on.
Simple.
The "goal" is to pick what the committee feels is the 4 best teams. UCF, without their QB and best player, isn't likely one of the 4 best teams in football.
It's unfortunate that he got hurt but that's just the reality. Would UCF, without Milton, be able to beat Clemson or ND or OSU or OU or UGA. Not likely.
After the playoff rankings were released Tuesday night, it is now a certainty they won't make the playoffs. Even the ESPN guys on the show were (acted?) a bit surprised Michigan was ranked over them. With Michigan ranked below UCF, they had a path to the playoffs:
- Alabama defeats Georgia to finish #1
- Pitt defeats Clemson to eliminate the Tigers from the playoffs
- Notre Dame is idle and finishes #2
- Texas defeats Oklahoma to eliminate the Sooners
- Northwestern defeats Ohio State to eliminate the Buckeyes
- UCF defeats Memphis and finishes #4 behind #3 Georgia
No, the goal is to select the RIGHT teams, not the BEST teams. If you were to go back in this forum for posts from 2014, you would find me making a few posts refuting claims from TCU fans that Ohio State made the playoffs over them because they didn't have the reputation OSU had. "But OSU won their conference whereas TCU tied, and lost to co-champ Baylor. Head-to-head is always the first tie breaker and TCU didn't have it. Conference championship is one of the selection criteria", I said. I plead ignorance, although in my defense, it was the FIRST year of the playoffs so I had no reason to doubt their claims. I was fooled. In the past two seasons we've seen a team make the playoffs while failing to win their DIVISION. Aren't you surprised those teams are Ohio State, coached by future HOF coach Urban Meyer and Alabama, coached by future HOF coach Nick Saban? Are you surprised that Ohio State and Alabama have been among the highest profile jobs in the country for the past 50+ years? The TCU fans were right. They make the 2014 playoffs over Ohio State if they were Texas instead of Texas Christian.
In your scenario, Clemson would not be eliminated from the playoffs. They would only have one loss (and in a conference champ). Michigan (2 losses) has no shot since they are not in a conference champ game IMO. This is the only scenario where UCF could be #4.
Perhaps, but their loss would be to an unranked Pitt team. Michgan's two losses were to top 10 teams, as were Georgia's two losses. Ohio State dropped 7 spots in the Coaches Poll (I know, it isn't the same) after they lost to unranked Purdue. Kentucky dropped 6 spots in the playoff poll after losing to unranked Tennessee. Clemson would drop from 2 to at least 6 by losing to Pitt, thereby eliminating them.
I am not sure what your point is. Are you saying UCF suffers from not being a blue blood?
I agree to an extent. But now with their best player out, it's a pretty easy argument to make that they simply don't belong in the discussion.
We should contract the NCAA basketball tourney. Alot of these teams dont "deserve" to play for a championship.
Teams that lose over 10 games or only win 65% of their games don't deserve a chance for a national championship.
Or it should be restricted to conference champs. If you dont win your conference or conference tournament, you dont deserve to compete for a championship.
Sounds like a great plan!
Teams that lose over 10 games or only win 65% of their games don't deserve a chance for a national championship.
Or it should be restricted to conference champs. If you dont win your conference or conference tournament, you dont deserve to compete for a championship.
Sounds like a great plan!
IMO no way Clemson would ever drop out of the playoffs for that loss. They would only have 1 loss and they pass the eye test. They are at a level below Alabama but higher than everyone else. They committee sees that as well.
Hopefully we'll find out how the committee sees them after a Pitt win.
Perhaps I have a minority opinion here, but Clemson's best win of the season is a 2-point victory at #19 Texas A&M. Their next best win was a 4-point win at home over #20 Syracuse. A loss to an unranked Pitt team should have people reconsider their perception of their schedule strength. Especially when they complain UCF hasn't played anyone, yet they defeated Pitt by 31 on September 29. If a loss to Pitt doesn't force them to completely reevaluate their position, the committee has no real interest in determining the best teams and are more interested in keeping their TV partners happy.
A loss to Pitt and they should drop out of consideration. More so if OSU and Ok win
I agree with you. It will be interesting if they lose. Should be a good weekend of games.
A UCF loss at 3:30 will make the MWC Champship Game at 7:45 interesting. The winner between #22 Boise State and #25 Fresno State will get the G5 NY6 bowl slot.
I think they would ahve to steamroll everybody in their path. Beating Navy by a slim margin and Temple doesn't make your case.
I think it depends on how they lose. If they get blown out, you are correct. If its close/OT/weird weather, they may luck out. In regards to OSU, I don't think they get the same benefit if they blow out Northwestern like when they did the same to Wisconsin. Oklahoma needs to take care of business and they have the revenge factor against UT. That being said, let's hope for chaos this weekend.
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